 What was your initial reaction to Tom Brady going to Tampa Bay? I mean like my initial reaction from like a non-DFS standpoint was just I guess this is this is happening and this is like our new reality uh that was basically my 10 year old gym was psyched because I grew up a Jets fan. 28 year old gym was more like okay cool uh because like for some reason I've lost interest in the Jets who can say why but yeah um but yeah I mean it was just one of those like it's kind of hard to wrap your head around Tom Brady playing somewhere else but I mean I'm excited for it in like a football sense but I'm also kind of not excited for it from a DFS sense because I love Mike Evans and I think this is bad news for Mike Evans. I think it's it's a combination I guess and I think this will be true for when we discuss Teddy Bridgewater too it's different but I don't necessarily know if it's like a a bad thing I guess. The big deviation between Tom Brady and James outside of 30 interceptions is that Brady doesn't go deep all that often. He was 37th in deep rate last year that's based on passes that travel at least 16 yards behind the line beyond the line of scrimmage and it seems like Bruce Arians is willing to mold his offense around what Tom Brady wants to do but I also think that Brady's low deep rate it's been a consistent thing for him across his career he's never really been a chuck it and pray type guy but I think when you have Muhammad Sunoo, Julian Edelman, Jacob Hollister, James White as like you're you're I mean not Jacob Hollister that's a old-school patriot but like Matt LaCosse when those are like your top pass catchers you're not going to throw deep all that often so I think what we'll see is Tom Brady's deep rate go up from where it was last year but also the deep rate of the entire team go down from James but I think the increase in efficiency will be a positive for them so maybe Mike Evans isn't going to have like 217 yard three touchdown games but I think that the floor for Evans should get higher and I would expect the same to be true for Chris Godwin maybe just a slight come down on the ceiling from Mike Evans what do you think? Yeah I agree with that but I kind of tried to take a step back and think like we break down the slates every week and I was just trying to think how I actually feel about this from like sure Mike Evans, Chris Godwin they'll be a little bit safer they won't have the ceilings but how frequently are we going to pay top-ish dollar for these two guys if we think the ceiling is somewhat capped because Tom Brady doesn't throw it deep as much I mean James Winston led the league in air yards per game last year according to fantasyADHD.com I'm pretty sure I'm drawing this down right he led the league three straight years in air yards per game and it's been top five or top four in each of his five seasons and I kind of went over Tom Brady's like deep ball rate his a dot sort of per game last year it ebbed and flowed and he actually had some double digit depth of target games toward the end of the season I think he had like three of the past five so I mean I don't think that I think that Tom Brady can throw it deep and I think he can throw it deep well that's kind of that checks out in the data it's just more I don't know if there's going to be 450 air yards to go around in this offense and then I then I get a little bit concerned that he's going to focus more on Chris Godwin in the slot than Mike Evans and then I got just a headache with even like less certainty less volume to go around. One component that should be good for Brady is that I would expect even if Bruce Arians does change his system to be not as de-gaffy I would expect them to still be very pass heavy Tampa Bay last year was third in pass rate on early downs in the first half so before script got in the way before you know third down and stuff got in the way they wanted to throw I would expect that to still be the case so like that'll be there so the overall air yards won't be as as high as James's but like from a volume and a target perspective they should be good and like if Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are getting eight to ten targets per game even if like they're not getting huge downfield targets that's still you can do a lot with that even if it's not necessarily like the deepest thing and like Brady like I watched a lot of him last year like it seemed like he could still go deep what he needed to it was more so like he didn't have the the capabilities to so I guess I'm probably a little bit more in on them because I think I still see a path to a ceiling but I also understand your reservations I think the biggest issue for me honestly is that Mike Evans I don't know if he's ever had a yard after a catch ever yeah he's like he's like an anomaly and just doesn't get any yards after the catch probably because he's jumping right every which way to get the ball yeah he's inversely proportional to depth or a dot yeah so I mean yeah but it's just not necessarily a ringing endorsement to see Mike Evans go from being dominant in the sense of like the 200 yard three touchdown games to kind of got to do something different and I don't I don't like that because I love Mike Evans so again I think this is better for Chris Godwin