 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your own lovable and squeezibly soft host. As always, we like to come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. People ask me why I do that because I always say because if you didn't know and you watched a rebroadcast, you only know what you know at the time, right? So I know what I know right now. But in six hours from now, that may be dated, just like the newspaper, today's newspaper or something tomorrow's newspaper, a mullet wrapper, if you're on the docks. So we're up 34.5 points. I was hoping that we'd get a little bit more of a volume decline, a little bit lower today and kind of get it out of the way. When we look at options, in fact, we'll do that maybe in the next segment. Pretty much saying 2850, 2870 is kind of where they went out last night. So I was hoping that we'd have a lot more downside today or at least just go sideways and burn a lot of the premiums off. So maybe I could get ready for the pop late this week. Didn't really see any kind of indications in the charts that we're going to get a pop today, hopefully, or maybe even tomorrow we get one more push down, drive everybody to despair. They all throw their filthy rotten evil calls away at pennies and I get a chance to buy them there. But you never know. Anyway, again, we finally had some decent volume in the market today. Not such four point, excuse me, 3.8 and change billion shares. So volume is kind of light. Let me update that. Not what you would think. And of course, we never really got the kind of big down put numbers that would make me think we've had a permanent low in. Even with this bounce, I still suspect that when we get into next week, it's going to be a slow slide into the three day weekend. Maybe we just continue to lose five, six points or something a day on average through next week. That would be the perfect setup to coming back into June and buying. And so many of the stocks are set up that way, all the ones I'm looking at anyway, that it certainly looks like that's going to be it. I've had a lot of stocks that I wanted to get into longer term, the tech insider. Just too many things going on. But now that everybody isn't betting on us going to the moon, much better prices to get back in on longer term trades and have a little bit of cushion down below instead of buying them at the top of the hysteria. For the hype cycle, which I'm writing about for this week's tech insider, along with some other stuff, a lot of biology in this week's tech insider, we did finish a trade that we've had on since early January in the tech insider. So what is that five months? And that was on Tesla. We started shorting. I think the top tick I had on Tesla when I started shorting was 345. I wanted to show exactly how you short an elephant or something that's way too short. So we showed how you could just short every pop and kind of ladder in. So we laddered in 25% of a time, the last time at 290, I think at 295 or 297. I was a little bit more ambitious up at the top. But if you've got a long term short on, how do you put one on if you can't be in front of the screen all the time, especially with a stock that's got fairly high short interest? And the answer is kind of ladder in. That way you won't get quite as much, but at the same time, you don't have to put all that risk on at once. Anyway, we covered it at 227 yesterday, and I think my average is around 330 or something. But you could actually take a look at that. And it's one of the more impressive and most easily identifiable bubbles, I suspect, in the market in a long time. It took me back to iOmega and several others. I still think it's going to 40 bucks if you've listened to the show for a long time. I think that's approximately what its real value is. But it's going to probably go sideways for, I don't know, the summer. Maybe it's two months, maybe it's one month or something. You're going to have to digest it. Had too many shorts coming in. I wanted to hold it for the next couple of years, but I didn't think if we got a decent bounce that it was probably worth hanging on to. And two, probably going after some long positions here, like I said, in that newsletter around the 1st of June, maybe sooner, saw a couple of today that interested me greatly. We just need them to close back into the trading range in the next day or two. I could buy them by Friday. But very interesting trades, and of course, everybody's glum the end of the world. That's when I like to buy. When everybody's euphoric, I'm afraid. And when everybody's afraid, I'm kind of greedy, thinking that maybe I'll be able to buy for pennies on the dollar and try that. Anyway, a good wrap up for our Tesla short. And we'll probably be coming back to that well once again. You can call me at 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. And of course, you can always put a message. There was no cost, additional cost to borrow Tesla shares. So yes, we will show the option curves. There wasn't any additional costs that I found. And I've got another question from actually one of the subscribers, why I covered it. And the only reason was there weren't any shares at anywhere to loan. And generally, that's a pretty good indication that it's probably time to get out, let some of the late to the party guys get bored out. Generally when we start seeing maybe a fourth or even a half of the shorts kind of get out and get bored. That's generally when the stocks are ready to go back down and take the next big leg down. But we've talked about all the things in this technology sphere of electronic vehicles and how the rest of the world seems to be going on to fuel cells, or at least Germany, South Korea. I don't think North Korea has anything. Maybe they've got a goat or something they ride around. Not much on the way north of the border. Germany, South Korea, China and Japan all look like they're going to fuel cells. At least that's what they're committing to. To also see in the meantime, give me a call. I'm looking forward to your dulcet tones at 877-927-6646. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. 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Hear all of the TFNN shows plus see all of the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts. You can test drive the Tiger's Den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets and how to make your money work for you. Details on the Tiger's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN has launched our brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL but when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades TFNN.com educating investors. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. And had a question about looking at the options and what they're telling us. We went flat going into yesterday and decided that about 285 on the spies is where they thought this thing probably plus or minus three points on the spies is where this is going to expire on Friday. So they have some fairly decent beliefs that were probably at least for this week seen the bottom of the market. I kept on hoping that it would press farther and farther and the volume would fall out. I'd have a good opportunity to buy some calls didn't seem to work out so far still have a little bit of the week left. I have a feeling that maybe we pressed a little bit too far down and we probably picked up too many shorts. Sometimes you can. Yeah I'm going to say 285 is kind on the low side 287 on the spies kind of looks a little bit more realistic so and we're not that far away. So the question is do we get much of anything else happening the rest of this week. I don't think so but we can you know very news driven market but it certainly looks like on options they've cinched this up dramatically since last Friday and even into yesterday where they had flat basically from about 240 all the way to 300 on the S&P and really cinched it up yesterday. So they kind of think that they got it now that the news is in they kind of got something that can go sideways here into Friday. I continue to hope that we get a light volume pull back into the three day weekend. So we go back maybe test few of these lower spots on some of these stocks and set up the buy for the summertime rally. I'm not as bearish as everybody else is long term at least a lot of people I'm talking to man they're not quite out there in the Times Square with a sign that says the end is nigh but close they're close that always makes me think that maybe it's time to start looking for stocks that have come back on low light volume back to previous lows. So I'll be probably concentrating on that and in the shows and pointing those out over the next week. What else do we have got a little bit of history history repeating it is history repeating it on this day in 1804 one year after the United States doubled its territory with the Louisiana purchase the Lewis and Clark expedition leaves in St. Louis Missouri on an expedition to explore the Northwest from the Mississippi River to the Pacific Ocean. Even before the U.S. government concluded purchase negotiation with France President Thomas Jefferson commissioned his private secretary Mereweather Lewis and William Clark on an army captain to lead the expedition into what's now the U.S. Northwest on May 14th the core of discovery or if I was Obama it'd be the corpse of discovery featuring approximately 45 men although only approximately 33 men would make the full journey left for St. Louis for the American interior and that was it. What else is going on. Okay. And did you do what else to do. Okay. And what else do we have. I think that's it for history and I have a lot of more comments. I do remember going in my teenage years going for a river rafting tour somewhere where these guys were but kind of a vague memory. Don't remember much of it left. Let's get into some charts have a lot of questions are ready. And we shall see answering a couple of emails here. As we said covered the Tesla short yesterday in the in the tech insider and kind of see where we went short back here in the first few days of January of the year. I wanted to hold this thing for a couple of years but man it just just seemed like it was getting kind of long in the tooth could have a decent bounce in this and then try to re short it in the meantime we've got a few other questions. First one is take a look at McDonald's MCD and this thing did not break at all on the way back up. I don't see anything that breaks this why everybody keeps telling everybody they won't eat McDonald's they continue to eat McDonald's not a lot of juice back up here. I don't know if you want to go short or long. I just don't see the risk reward going short support comes back in at about one ninety four and at worst if it blows apart one ninety. So you make ten bucks on a two hundred dollars stock that's five percent ain't not enough for me. I don't see anything out here that said that's ever broke in the downturns. And until you get some kind of signal I don't see anything out here that says lower being improving economy far in advance of what we got. But they still make a lot of money on breakfast and lunch even if people aren't eating a lot of dinners there these days. I don't see anything in it at least in the chart at the moment and I haven't looked through the books that far. Another quick question out here before we get to the restoration hardware to do OK. And this kind of one of the reasons why I covered the short and Tesla yesterday and that is that you've had these things blown apart. This one from one from one fifty seven seventy one down to ninety four thirty one. The problem is you had to be right there on earnings pretty much to catch most of these and kind of a tough sell as wildly as this is reacted to earnings before and of course when they came into earnings there wasn't a lot of foreshadowing other than the stock price had already started to move down. You were going to blow out the lows so significantly. You know what you would really I think the next leg on this one if you could get it would be one twenty five. If it gets back up there you shake off a lot of the early shorts and this thing everybody gets bored with it. That may be one of the bigger ABC's. What is that going to be about. Well I can actually do it since I wrote the software that does it. We can look at the expansions and I don't have to do that much to do that. What are we going to do here. We're going to say this whole thing is a monster ABC on the way down because this thing is a giant dog. Well I guess probably not what I'm looking for. But we'll see. Let's just look at the retracement at the moment. OK go a little shorter time frame. Maybe there we are. We'll be back in a second. We'll look at restoration hardware but one twenty six for a sixty point moves take it about seventy bucks. But one twenty six oh one you want to put an alert on that. It's there. I want to look very hard at pulling the trigger short for a giant ABC on the way down. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas then now is a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. 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Didn't really bother me at night, but I'm always hungry in the morning, probably because I don't eat at night that much. But I don't see a whole lot in this one either. I don't see, I mean, you went over the previous high, you did so with light volume on my 2750. I think you really have to go back up to 7750 and fail before. Yeah, it could fail right now, but I'm not a big fan of shorting that one either. See what else we have. Okay, and we're back in here. Got a couple of questions we'll try to get to. And we got, who is this? Me, oh, Richard. I got a whole bunch of emails here. U.S. Steel's big dog. What do I think of it here? Actually, Chart doesn't look that bad. And again, I'm a big fan of when the throwing all the babies out with the bathwater to go back and look at it back on May 2nd, $14.16, 26 million shares. You got into it with 17, 18 million shares yesterday. You kind of go on sideways out here. You got kind of light volume now. This is where a lot of these patterns, I think everybody's going to be driving and going, you know what, we're going to get an instant V-bottom. We're going to get it. I don't think it's going to be that way. I think we're into that part of the year where things kind of slow down and volume slows down. So it's going to be hard for shorts to drive these things into the ground. They're just not going to be that kind of huge, you're going to need a lot of selling. Now, we've got pretty much the end of the big IPO boom this week. They needed to raise another five billion shares. My guess is that most of that people started selling after they saw on Friday how bad it went. They probably went ahead and started selling, hoping to catch these IPOs this week and maybe thinking that these IPOs would come out at a much better price than probably thought when they were trying to get out before Lyft and Uber. And a lot of times that's it. A lot of times they just print a lot more shares and still screw you in the end on these IPOs, but I'll be watching for a handful of them. But we've got a couple, the rest of this week, about five billion dollars, and then that's kind of it. So there may be a little hangover over there. You know what? If I have, as a seasoned drinker in my youth, I used to like Long Island teas, and if I drank rum or any of the other things in the Long Island tea by themselves, seemed to have a hangover. But if I drank them all together in one big thing, this never seemed to have the same hangover. But you knew that you were drunk. That was for sure. That's back when you could do it in the 80s. Now you can't do that anymore. Mad Men was kind of the end of it. Anyway, we're down here at these Lowe's. I would love to see these things go sideways and disbore everybody out of the world. So I don't say that it's a bad setup here. And especially with the tariffs, I think everybody's, like I said, throwing the baby out with bathwater here, I think that's gonna set up some very nice buys. But you're going into a week where the volume's really gonna start falling out. It's not generally wanna wanna plant a flag. I would love for these stocks that are down on light volume, just to go sideways all the way into next Friday, all the way into the next vacation period and see how well these things work out. Because I mean, there's a couple of things that Tim Ward taught me as we listened to him all here on TFNN in the early 2000s. And that was one, don't get in too big a hurry and when everybody's bored, good time to start really watching either at highs or lows. And again, you've got enough of a volume drop here that looks good, but you're also going into a week where we needed to raise a little more money and probably still a bit of a hangover and everybody looking over their shoulders and in the rear view mirrors that the tariff guys, the tariff monster is gonna get them. So it could be nice. Now, if we just go sideways and light volume and let all that tension, the tensions, wouldn't that inspector clue? So he had to get rid of the tensions. I forget what movie that was in, but they were bad for some reason. I'll think of it. I think it was when Kato was forced to give him a massage every day, but the tensions have to be let go and time is part of it. So I would absolutely love for the market and the big indexes to pull back on light volume next week and stocks that you're looking at here, don't move. This volume all falls out. They really don't go any lower. Everybody that sold, that had an opportunity to sell is done with it. And then maybe come back. What is that the second? Whatever it is. 27th is that. So you got, yeah. You got fund buying coming back in the 28th. You could start seeing that market move right into that fund buying coming back on the 28th. And so that's what I would ideally think it would be the bullish setup. The bearish setup would be us just running right back up into the 24th into that weekend. I don't see that. There's still a lot of overhead resistance. So it's gonna be hard slogging. Could do it. I don't think there's a lot of risk reward until we get to the 28th in this market, except maybe Thursday and Friday for options expiration. But yeah, this day kind of wiped out a lot of it. But yeah, might have individual stocks that show a lot of promise. I looked at the option curves on about 100 stocks last night. I'll look at them again. What I wanna start seeing is some kind of good idea that things have moved that way. In the longer term tech insider, I'm gonna be looking at a bunch of stocks that man, if we get this nice low volume retreat into the three day weekend that I wanna buy. Got some more questions. One about the, I play on the UVXY. We'll talk about that when we come back. Give me call 877-927-6648. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First Mortgage Program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the Tax Opportunity Zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. 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The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com. Then hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. And I had a question from Ronald, who is one of our subscribers to the Path of Lease Resistance, asking me about my model and how the UVXY trade came about. He's been with us, I guess, a while. Because he caught the one where we shorted, shorted the UVXY right around the 24th or 26th of December. And without getting too much into the weeds on what my model is, it's basically a model that learns from repetition of data. And the first big example of that model working was with Atari's Breakout. If you remember that 1975 game where it was kind of like Pong, except it was a single person. You'd bounce it around and they were able to use the machine learning algorithm on it. After it played about 500 games, there was no human that could beat it. At about 100 games, it was better than all humans. But by 500 games, it learned something about a strategy in the game that just absolutely tore the game up and no human could really do well. And that's bounce the ball off the side and get above where it would just sit there and bounce back and forth and take off huge amounts of little tiles on the top. So I've got a model that does that. One of the problems though is this model is very much kind of like the weather forecast. I can tell about 10 days, three months, much harder to do or two months. So a lot of times I will take the money early. In the case of the last of the options, what do we get? Five or 600% and a handful of days. Now, if we hold on, we could have gotten considerably more, but at the same point, I can't bet that either the president of China or the president of the United States gonna say something that's gonna help our cause. I know that there's a certain amount of movement that you should get whether or not those guys were tweeting or not. And that's kind of when I try to get out and how I kind of say the same thing at the end of every show, which is sell when you can not when you have to, because generally, if you get a huge win and then you have to give half of it back, you're generally a lot more disappointed than this selling it up front, but who knows? Anyway, same thing. The problem with basically why didn't I take the puts on the UVXY when it was up at 95 and we were shorting it up there? Well, when everybody wants to short the world, you just the call, the puts and calls are ridiculously priced. You can make these huge, the huge money in option when everybody's euphoric and they don't wanna really spend a lot of money or charge a lot of money on calls or puts because they think that the market's just going higher. And at that point, if you can get it correct and my model's been is now two for two for that type of machine learning model on the UVXY so it works pretty good, but anybody that in machine language knows what I'm talking about and the kind of model that it is. But again, almost always like the weather forecast, yeah, can you tell two, three, four, five, six, seven days out, but the models more than often fall apart after a handful of days. So if I'm doing something like that and I can make five or 600% on a single trade, more than likely to go get and take that cash. Got a couple more things to talk about and then an announcement before the end of the show. So we gotta get to that. TXNC Jim or Tim says from Golden Colorado, can you give me a buy point for Texas Instruments and HD? Texas Instruments, man, you basically had it yesterday. You filled about half of that gap. The pop-up today's not too bad, but anything around 107, 106.50, again, like I said, what you want this to do into next week at Light Volume Bounce today is you want the same to come back into that 107, 106 area and you want the volume to just die out in the stock to go sideways. I think there are probably better plays than this, but not a bad trade, maybe up to 115, something like that looks like where resistance would be on that. What else are we looking at? TXNC HD. This one's tougher because it actually broke through the previous high, which is the February 25th high on Home Depot. You didn't have a lot of volume. You need a close back above 193.42 to give you a buy signal. You're at 192.32. To me, this one looks like the better play because if it bounces and closes above 193.42, you're probably still in it to win it. And it was just a false break and pullback into what should be fairly decent support. What I dislike about this stock, it never had a sign of strength. When it went over 193.42, so I don't know if you get that much out of it again. A lot of diminishing returns on these, I want to find stocks that are kind of all washed out. I suspect that if I'm looking in the right sector, it is more than likely going to be in biotech, maybe the big winner for this summer, depending on where you're at in it. And I've been looking at some stocks. In fact, I attended a symposium on stocks in a certain part of the biotech sector. And that's what I'm going to be writing about in the Tech Insider on Friday. Anyway, not a lot of volume out here today. I would love to see biotech come back down to IBB come down to maybe 100 bucks. And if it just comes on light volume all next week down to there. Now, if you are a bearer, what you want to start seeing is the market moving up on very light volume and making that B to C move on light volume during this week, and then have it all fall apart in June. But that's it. What else do we have? Got a couple more emails to take a look at. Nothing, nothing. Okay. He had a question, probably a good thing to address at this time. The question is about Jim Chano shorting Dunkin Donuts. He's made a fairly good case on it. The problem I always see with these accounting things was and same thing was with Tesla is he was a short a year before it started to fall apart. He was short test. He was short in Ron a year before it started to fall apart. A lot of these accounting fraud kind of stocks or ones that are where the books are just generally roasted take a long time to get ready. So when I see this stuff, I put it on my radar. I think about it a long time and I wait for the next big signal technically to see whether or not I still think that thesis is there. Like I said, I didn't see much in Dunkin Donuts now, but now that I know that Chano's is on it, I'll think a lot more about it. But I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, six and three months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. 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Later, Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now, you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's daily trading newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. And we are back, just a short announcement. We're gonna have a tiger, he said. We're gonna have a tiger dollar promotion going on. I guess I didn't have a chance to check but I think it just went live on the front page of TFNN. If not, maybe in a very short amount of time. We're also gonna have a promotion for the Art of Timing Trade charts. And we'll talk more about that tomorrow. Once I see it up there on Lights, and I know it's true on the TFNN website. But I spent, I don't know, about three months upgrading a lot of the features to current versions of Windows 10. And got that done about a week ago played with it a little bit found. One last bug, cured that this morning. So we're gonna go with the promotion on this. And like I said, we'll talk more about the details. I had a lot of questions about the Joe DiNapoli pattern for the double repo and do we have enough time to finish that up now? Where am I at? Where's that? I'm kind of about a minute. One of the reasons I thought that we were probably fairly close to finding a bottom two is exactly where these patterns finish and what they imply. And when you get these patterns, like the NASDAQ, the first day that we went into this was the 29th of May where it started the Joe DiNapoli double repo pattern and that it failed. But that's generally where they go right back to. And so we pretty much hit that yesterday. We washed it out, now we're back up on it. That's the completion of that pattern. So we have the displaced moving averages in the Art of Timing the Trade charts. Talk more about that this week and through next week, but a tiger dollar promotion and a promotion for the Art of Timing the Trade charts too. Coming at ya, go get ready for it. Check out those tiger dollars. Easiest way to make some dough going into the summer season. We'll see you tomorrow, same bat channel, same bat time. So when you can, not when you have.