 Okay, very good morning everyone. Hope you are well Tuesday 2nd of July So quick overview before we're going to discuss actually Rather than me share the headline straight away. Excuse me. Let me just have a look at the screens and You know, I guess as you become more Experienced and you're looking at markets day-to-day the intraday environment Obviously when you when you on your way to work you've pretty got a pretty good idea of how the land lies in You've read a lot of the news stories and market wraps and so on as you come in but definitely turning on the charts gives you immediate clues as to what's going on and And the point being there is that there's not a lot There's not really too much more for me to to fill you in on a couple of updates on the on the Trump this time on the European side OPEC confirmation RBA Also doing as expected largely and cutting rates overnight, but other than that it's been pretty quiet I think that's reflected across the the asset classes. We're looking at here. So most of the assets here are fairly flat stock index futures Very much the case and that's really reflected in the currency pairs gold a touch higher up about five bucks I'll leave Sam to look at the technicals behind that was a couple of nice levels playing out. It's like a trend line as well so one of the overarching themes though being that despite the positivity developing from the trade truce between the US and China Ultimately the global economy is still in a fairly precarious state as epitomized by the weakness in the PMI data that we've had on the manufacturing side Over the course of the last 24 hours or so. So keeping gold Little bit elevated and don't forget gold I'm trying to think what the stat was it had what its biggest sell-off yesterday in a year, so Well in terms of the repricing and the gap down and falling through that 1400 quite aggressively So natural recovery of that move. I don't think it's too untoward And then elsewhere WTI crude We'll look at that in more detail in a second But ultimately it seems a case of a little bit of buy the rumor sell the fact when it came to the confirmation And we'll be looking for the definitive kind of conclusion to the OPEC plus side of proceedings today on that nine month extension so Before I just move on to the headline. I just wanted to quickly look at the S&P 500 because Quite a few questions obviously from the kind of newer traders yesterday about you know, how do you feel about the the equity? Gap up and then where do we go directionally from there? This is kind of casting us mine our minds back to this time yesterday and you can see you had that really aggressive Gap higher on the back of the the positive developments the lack of escalation if anything the opposite with the China and US News that came out Markets then pulled back and overnight. I mean, this is quite typical. I would say of The way of which speculators would be looking at this trying to identify the best point of entry and rather than Waiting for a complete pullback down to the initial closing price that we had in the futures trade on the on the Friday They've instead looked to the you know, mathematically calculated pivot level as the same level of which obviously that everyone is looking at as Reason then to get long because maybe a little bit of profit-taking the fact the market on the gap a little overdone But still ultimately In the short term at least playing that idea that this is a net positive for sentiment and then we moved higher only then to hit Where we were defining now is the record high level 81 3 quarters And a little bit of profit-taking again to ensue through the US afternoon Understand I was off the desk, but I said manufacturing although better than expected that show continued slowdown as well So very much mimicking that that kind of global environment But interestingly from a technical point of view Pretty much played out or did to the tick so yesterday evening Before we went into the last hour of trade on Wall Street where really it just ramped Into the final hour of trade quite aggressively But the entry point there on the technical side coming exactly where that Friday high was so again using the pivot Was that first overnight for the the kind of was about 1 a.m. At the time if you were there looking Sunday going through into Monday night In the overnight session, but then yet late yesterday evening on the pullback to that level and people using that as a re-entry for that long. I think that is quite A prudent play because ultimately although The PMIs are weak. I think the development on the trade side was was meaningful enough to keep at least I would be imagining that all things remaining equal. We should Or a likelihood trade within this now range Given the fact that we've got the Independence Day holiday, of course on Thursday US markets will be completely closed I wouldn't be surprised to be looking at that as the predefined range now at least until we get payrolls and talking to Sam this morning One thing with payrolls is that a number of Americans could well be out of the market, which could impede then the normal Liquidity and so it could be quite a volatile affair Given that fact when we see the jobs data here on Friday So at the moment where where the S&P is sitting just looking specifically at the S&P I wouldn't really have any interest in it at this present point because as you can see is it's absolutely banging the middle of the range Of what was yesterday's high and low So unless we come to its upper lower bounds, it's probably not an instrument. I'd look at too much in today's session Anyhow, let's crack through the headlines as I said, there's nothing here particularly Exciting to the point of which is moving markets this morning But I think warrants the recap of the the current status and now the The situation at least For the next week or two it's probably moved away from China Europe's back in the spotlight and the headline Featured on the kind of front cover of Bloomberg this morning is the fact that the US have added more EU products to a list of goods it could hit with retaliatory tariffs in a long-running transatlantic Subsidy dispute between Boeing and Airbus I think I was reading it this morning and the US claiming that basically America's lost out on about a billion dollars worth of of trade on the fact that You know the subsidy the French government has with EDS and the Airbus unit and how they get a benefit on the back of that And so what's happened the trade representatives office in Washington yesterday has published a list of four billion dollars worth of EU goods in Target of retaliating against these European aircraft subsidies that are in existence now Very important point here. The reason why the market is not responding really too much or too bothered by this news Is is that for one this isn't really new This has been an ongoing dispute for a longer period of time way supersedes the current kind of trade war instigated by Donald Trump and then to this is just adding on top of an already existing lists Valid at about 21 billion of which the US had already proposed back in April and four billion I guess in the grander scheme of things relatively smaller amount, so for for that this is why This isn't really a point to dwell on I would say too much at this point from a from a global macro points of view, but I guess what I would be looking out for is if Trump tweets on the matter if Trump goes beyond just targeting a response to European aircraft subsidies into something more European than wide particularly he's being quite Vocal about the automotive sector which of course the American market is quite critical to a number of the German Manufacturers that could be something of more interest that could create a little bit of negativity in European equities if that type of headline comes The other things of course you saw this yesterday So for anyone who's new to markets You probably sit through my initial commodities lecture where I'm explaining about the the communication Style of OPEC couldn't be any more different to the kind of very structured and coordinated way of which Central bankers talk And that being that you know there's lots of headlines coming out I guess the the one thing that made yesterday a little bit more manageable is what The outcome was already very well telegraphed by the fact that Putin and Muhammad bin Salman have already really given the game away That they'd made an agreement and when an agreement happens at that level between the de facto kingpin of OPEC and non-OPEC Well, then the rest is just a formality because you know There's other smaller countries don't really have the the political kind of clout really or the production physical clout to make a great deal of difference Nine months then is what's been agreed The decision needs to be ratified by non-OPEC allies So we'll be looking for that to happen later today. So in terms of the timing. Here's a reminder of that schedule Just so you don't get caught off guard or by surprise by anything And these are Vienna time so they're an hour ahead opening session 9 a.m. London Close session 10 o'clock joint press press conference will be looking out for midday to get that confirmation I would say a bit of a non-event now, but interestingly I think you got to let the price do the talking and We kind of gapped up here. Just looking at WTI crude This was the gap up on the fact that The lack of escalation Positive noises coming out on the trade talks of US and China is E20 It's that helping you know mitigate any concerns in relief on the demand side But then rallied up got up to around that $60 level But you can see really as the confirmation started to come in in the afternoon Market started to pull back and and really I think this is more of a kind of buy the rumors sell the fact But I guess from a current state of play it does go some way to show the market now if OPEC really want to Kind of give the market another shot in the arm to bolster prices if that was their objective Well, then they've got to do something more powerful now because an extension out until the early part of 2020 is now very much Factored into market prices. So unless they deepen the cuts in itself or they roll out for further into the entirety of 2020 They're kind of losing their ability to support prices up at around these levels so Interesting to see the oil really not responding too much On the back of that, but I guess it's because it's filtered in over the last week or two We kind of knew that was going to be the case to some degree Other things that have happened overnight The RBA through the Reserve Bank of Australia If you're coming in you'll probably realize that there's been a little flurry of price activity in the Aussie overnight So let me just quickly show you. This is the Aussie dollar So you can see that really very quick momentary blip in the price action of the Australian dollar but unsustainable now Just flicking over my chart. So this is when the result came out If we put it back onto a minute just so we can see the way the price reacted you can see Confirmation of the rate cut Little spike lower and then we rallied thereafter Reading between the lines here the reason for the cut don't forget not coming Completely unexpected in fact the majority of analysts on Wall Street were expecting a rate cut on the balance. So First back-to-back rate cuts though that we've had in Australia in seven years The main focal point of course coming as inflation pressures remain subdued across the economy I think that was an interesting chart they had here that basically stated that the RBA has cut whenever annual CPI growth Has fallen below 1.5 percent. So kind of repetitive patterns around some of these key objectives that the central bank has which is in creating price stability and inflation around its target Not only that though, obviously growth has been Fultering you've had a housing crisis for some time albeit now seeing some signs of stabilizing and so another kind of preemptive cut Taken back-to-back now by the RBA But I would say at this point now the interest rates are getting down to around these 1% levels then I think that's pretty much Potentially what we'll see for the moment So perhaps that explaining then a little bit about the idea that they've kind of hit their objective now of what they wanted to do We're 50 basis point lower And now we're going to sit on our hands and wait to see how things Underfold for here on out Certainly if the China US situation stabilizes, that's another positive development as well Albeit granted that's a situation in flux given how volatile politics can be But Aussie overall other than the blip unsustainable and we're pretty much back to where we were if anything back above pivot in the futures Italy This was something to be aware of because we're It's something that's been ongoing of course for a while, but this is Absolutely gone as you would imagine with politics thus far The Italian politicians make a big splash to cajole public sentiment You know really fueling that nationalist feel certainly under the leadership of Salvini in saying, you know Hard stance against Brussels. No, we need to have very ambitious Spending bills and reforms made which of course requires high amount of government spending and accumulation of more debt Which Brussels obviously are very much against because it's in breach then of the rules That they've put in place. So what's happened and this has happened. It's almost like It's like a broken record almost Italy comes back and Italy says, okay We'll cut 2019 deficit goal to 2% because we don't want to trigger this legal procedure That could lead to a large sizable multi-billion euro fine on the country which given its current financial state could be You know have dramatic consequences on the country's ability to borrow going forward and their sovereign credit worthiness so They've tweaked basically this budget proposal in aiming to appease them the European bureaucrats whether that is the case or not basically there was supposed to be a hearing on Italy today But because Europe are at the moment trying to get together. What is there? They're existing team a lot of headline leadership changes happening at On a European level in Brussels and so it's been on the back burner at the moment But this is kind of one of those subjects which is lingering in the background It's not really a focal point of which I would use Fundamentally to judge or make I'd say a trade as such But it's definitely worth monitoring Having a look then at the calendar for today. What have we got? Very quiet overall. You've got the UK construction PMI coming out half nine I think if you remember the manufacturing number the weaker since 2013 Of course the uncertainty surrounding Brexit That is causing a lot of businesses to kind of hold back at the moment And that's transpiring now into the the weakness in UK data otherwise the construction PMI Lesser market moving I would say And it's expected to remain in contraction. The services one coming tomorrow. Obviously is it's going to be the most interesting Otherwise from the US side of things again pretty quiet The API crude oil infantry is of course not coming till later on in the in the evening for speakers You'd have RBAs low said to be speaking at 10 30 this morning So just given the context of the recent meeting a few hours ago from the RBA It could be worth monitoring if you're looking at the Aussie feds Williams a voting member speaking on a panel discussion Which does include global economic and monetary policy outlook. So for sure I suggest keeping an eye out for that 1135 Then this afternoon mark Carney the Bank of England governor is speaking, but this is a local government conference in Bournemouth I wouldn't be expecting too much From Carney at this point It's not definitely not a platform that he would typically use to say anything of substance on policy But just to be aware of that be a three and then feds Mester a non-voter speaking later on at four o'clock So that's also on that the calendar In terms of cable Nothing we need too much to mention on brexit Certainly nothing I'd say from a trade point of view But just keeping an eye on cable. We are just coming close to retesting the initial Late age of Pacific low that we had. All right on that note. Let me just change over My screens and I'll swap with Sam and then he can come on and talk you through a few other things as well Just give me one second Just trying to find Sam's name. I can't have him on the screen with my name He'll have words with me after the briefing. So looks like his names moved on my control panel, but I Think I found him. Here he is. Okay. All the best guys. I Think we can all be in agreement that have been a massive compliment to Anthony to have me Over his name, but just having a look here at the the charts obviously the that gap feel in inequities was Something people would have been iron up all day. I mean for it to come in around 738 o'clock, I guess you can just argue how much you could have got out of it about having to hold it overnight really Strong support and that's gonna remain a level that people will will have marked up on the chart for sure To the upside obviously just seeing a bit of a downward movement here But to the upside if we were to keep pushing on you can see that 2973 certainly level I'd have marked up Bit of support before the the pushdown post cash open and then resistance after that had occurred So that's somewhere I would would have marked up on the chart now. We are just seeing a bit of a Push lower here in in stock so to the downside from where we're trading The the lows of the the morning 2960 but of course the s1 yesterday's low the gap feel very much the most important level here Of interest and just having a look over at the other equity markets that gap feel and NASDAQ has not come into play yet So that's one that I would would have marked up a level of interest 77 27 Whether we can get back down there today or not obviously time will will tell But if we if the reaction we saw from the s&p is anything to go by I would definitely be keeping one eye on that the Dow Complete the gap feel first around 530 We then got down towards the pivot area before finding a bit of support But not not as is interested in Recovering into the back end of the session the key level I would say for the Dow just above the pivot Similar sort of low before the breakdown we had in the afternoon. So 26,747 on the on the futures But we are just seeing just stocks in general here to come under a bit of pressure the Dax I'm just leading the way as you'd expect from eight o'clock open We are just however coming into a bit of support from yesterday evening on the Dax Unless that was to really go wouldn't be getting too excited here But you are just getting a slight bit of risk off this morning and speaking of safe havens That reaction in gold to equities dropping lower to see a bit of a tick higher Certainly looking at this from from yesterday's Price action we never got near to having a go at trying to fill the gap So that's something that I would still be thinking about from a risk-reward point of view throughout the the course of the day or week But also before we get there you would have to to get past this potential trend line on the R1 and a lot of A lot of selling from from late yesterday So before getting too aggressively long above where we're trading, you know So this is your your line in the sand here where we really struggle to get above and of course 1400 just a bit above where that would be as well to the downside the pivot you can see offered quite good support This morning and I guess if you are looking for the move to come lower same sort of We're looking at things in that probably the break of a trend would be a good way to get involved in between The two probably not worth getting too aggressive if we're really not in a trade there and look over at the currencies euro Is it I guess it was it was a tricky one yesterday initially on that that retest that we had back on the The lows from from last week and see spike and through pool coming back down helped by The slightly stronger US data that helped push us down and now if we just have a quick look over at this on the longer chart Let's move that around The fact that we close below the all-important Top of this trend Let's put that on there roughly drawing I Second just to modify that So the fact that we've now closed back below this this trend channel this would be Something that I'd be looking for it'll paint perhaps the retest of that area For a level to go short and then to the downside as a point of support You've got certainly on the futures just a little bit below where we're trading So even if we were to push lower here in the euro just be aware the highs that we have back on the 19th and 18th of June will be key Before we can perhaps push lower and then maybe get a test of the the trend lines from the lows of the year So putting that back to you know the shorter time frame you can see just the importance of this trend channel yesterday Initially in the morning. We found really good support around eight o'clock before that breakthrough A quarter past four and you had a further push from that that looks to mark up around the pivot And along with the the lows that we had from yesterday on that trend channel Could be a good area to look to get in to the downside You can see a break of the low of the day probably not the best risk reward To go short because of these lows or highs that we had back in In June as mentioned the pound as I said not too much going on really we had a retest of the The bottom part of the range yesterday We had some weaker data out as well a couple of good opportunities to get short although small range There for the pound and despite the the dollar strengthening yesterday didn't move anywhere near as aggressive as the euro Despite that really bad data to the downside 126 58 the high of the 17th could argue that's a support in price for now I think with both the euro and pound looking for short if we can just drift a bit higher up to get a better price for that How many a quick look over? other markets the oil just to wrap things up you can see Not far off the the middle of the weekly range so far that we have That gap feel almost coming into play and that level still was something I'd keep an eye on yesterday's low s1 And then the sort of the highest point that Friday closed that that's something I would have marked up And what offered quite a good trading opportunity yesterday was that break of the morning trend as that went through? Obviously, it's relatively rough sort of trade Trend to have on you can see a similar thing happening here And perhaps waiting for the afternoon and this break of the trend for a short if that's what you're interested in It's not a bad bad idea To have marked up there as usual any questions Please do let us know for gold is waiting for a break either way despite stocks is coming down I wouldn't get too aggressive just yet unless we were to well almost break the levels we're trading at now and Those trend lines that come in certainly here for the Dow and the S&P you can see While it's a bit more steeper. You can see I The early hours we did break through this a maybe sentiment just to the downside at the moment But not one to get too aggressive with I would say right now just given the the open that we've gone through in Europe I hope you all have a good trading day and I'll catch you in the chat, but of course any questions, please Do let us know