 Okay, so, welcome to tonight's, so I sent you a Taiwan Studies lecture. So, tonight is one of our lectures in our contemporary Taiwanese Indigenous Studies lecture series that's sponsored by the Shunin Museum. Tonight, I'm really delighted to welcome back Professor Baozhe Han, who is based at Danjiang University's Department of Global Politics and Economics. Now, I say welcome back, and this is because this is his third, so-as, talk. His first one was when he was still doing his PhD at the University of Han. And over the years, he's developed quite an interesting range of research and topics. And this is one of the reasons why he's actually made quite a contribution to so-as Taiwan Studies, not only through the lectures that he's given over the years, but also in the way that he's helped a number of our students. So, for example, when he did his PhD, his PhD was not about Indigenous Studies. It was about something quite different. He was looking at democratization in Singapore and Taiwan. So, he's had quite a transformation. But fortunately, a few years ago, one of my evasions was looking at Singapore politics, and that was the first case of him helping one of our so-as students. And then, more recently, he's helped so-as students who were interested in studying Indigenous political issues, particularly things like voting and behavior. So, after graduating from HAL, he went back to Taiwan and he's become a kind of pioneer in the field of, I would say, political science understandings of Taiwan's Indigenous peoples. It's a kind of, when we think about studies on Taiwan's Indigenous peoples, very strong literature on areas such as anthropology, ethnic studies. But generally, Taiwan's political science has really neglect this topic. Of course, one of the reasons is that Taiwan political science tends to be very statistically focused, and that makes doing Indigenous studies quite challenging. So, Professor Bowles really tried to, kind of, individually develop this topic, which can be quite a tricky one. So, when we're thinking about this project, this is the topic that we had to cover, and use one of the first people we thought of in terms of bringing on this lecture series. Of course, I should say that he was also so-as last year. No, two years ago. And we really wanted to bring it back as part of this project. I should also say that he'll be doing two lectures with one tonight, which is more of a research-focused talk. And then his talk on Thursday night will be a little bit more of a general overview of voting behaviour and political participation in Taiwan. So we've got to go narrow first, and then on Thursday a much more raw overview lecture. So, on that note, let's give Professor Bowles a very big, so-as-welcome back. Thank you, everyone, and this is my server, so I was told. And I would like to say thank you, David, to do a very clear introduction about my end of May. So today's topic is about why Indigenous people in Taiwan don't vote. So I would like to start with something. Why China? And voting participation is vital to the legitimacy of government and the quality of democracy, especially in Taiwan. In 1996, for the presidential election, the turnout rate is around 80%. Then year 2000 is around 70-something. Then is year 2012, 2008, 2012. The turnout rate of presidential election is around 72,000 history. Then our newspaper, our media studies say why turnout rate is so low, so low. What crisis? We regard that as a crisis. Why people don't go to vote? But the turnout rate is 70-something. But the Indigenous politics in Taiwan is basically invisible. No one cares about that. No one cares about Indigenous elections. And the lower turnout rate might imply that Indigenous people haven't been alienated from the politics. Actually, they are. They are alienated. They are isolated from the politics, because they have a different system like us. A totally different system. In this field, the population size is about 2.3% of the entire Taiwan. And they might be minority, but they are very important. Why are they important? Because our constitution guarantees, according to our constitution, we guarantee about 8% of the parliamentary seats to reserve for the Indigenous people. It's much higher than their population size percentage. So for several years, Indigenous MPs, they can play a very crucial, very important role, especially when we have three-colonial elections. They will be very important. So turnout rate in this issue in Taiwan should be very important. But for the Indigenous people, their turnout rate is much lower. It's much lower compared with ordinary Taiwanese people. Usually it's 10% to 20% lower. So we started to talk about that. So we started asking why Indigenous people don't go to vote. So most of the people, most of the scholars, actually before I started this research, no one cared about that. We know this fact. We know Indigenous people, they seldom go to vote. And what is our explanation of the case is the voting cost. Because mainly the Indigenous people that originally lived in the mountain area, or in the east Taiwan, it's quite far away. And in Taiwan, if you go to vote, usually it's on Saturday. So Saturday is day off, Saturday is day off. But to the ordinary people, we just need to go downstairs and work about five minutes, then you can cost your vote ballot. For Indigenous people, you may have to spend about eight hours, six to eight hours, traveling to their hometown, then cost their ballot, then come back the whole day, or even two days, even two days. For a long time, we don't know how we use the list as an excuse or a reason to explain why Indigenous people don't vote. But I'm so curious because I know some fact. For example, 50% of the Indigenous people, they already moved in their metropolitan area. They already moved out from their hometown. So for these people, they should like us. They just need to go downstairs, five minutes for work, then they can cost their vote because they're... Who did I want to mention? Household registration. Okay, yeah, Household registration. Already moved to a metropolitan area. So if the voting cost is the problem for these kind of Indigenous people, or metropolitan Indigenous people, they should have a temporary like us, but actually not. So that is the reason why I started to study this question, study this research question. So we got some theories to explain why people don't vote, or who don't vote. Of course, that is the economic voting that I only done in 1954 or something like that. A rational choice theory is expected in the utility is the probability of an individual vote to change the election result times the expected energy from expected election result and minus the voting cost. So that is the very original one formula. But because for this theory, you won't vote because of your vote to change the entire election result. This probability is very, very low. So no matter how high, how large the benefit you expected because of the probability is very low. So for any vote, people should not go to vote. People should not go to vote. If you go to vote, you are irrational. But the truth, the usual truth is people do go to vote, right? They don't go to vote. So the writer, writer and author, they revise, they modify this formula and plot one new variable called the citizen duty. Sometimes we go to vote. It's not because of money, not because of the cost. Because you think that is your citizen duty. You should go to vote. For example, my father. It's horrible. Every election. Someone, election, you can start at 8 o'clock. You can go to the constable bar from 8 o'clock to 5 p.m. From 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. And my father will wake me up at about 6 p.m. And they wake me up and they say, you should go to vote. I go to vote a part of the reason because I don't want to hear about this one. So I go to vote. And then we are starting preparing. We also have a breakfast. Then my father will read us. My mom and I and my sister. No, my sister always refused to do so. My sister was there. He will stay. She will lie about that. And then she will go to vote later. So because she's female and my father's favorite. So I and my mother, my father and my younger brother. A.A.M. We are already over there. About 10 minutes later. Because we are all about it. I ask my father, why we have to do so? Why we can't vote? Only after lunch we can go to vote later. My mother, that is our duty. That is the sense that you should go to vote. This is our obligation. And I'm the student of video science. That is our obligation. And I never want to risk my father's death. Never. I don't want to die this game. But actually to some people. Season duty. And you can't measure it, right? You can't measure it. But they can explain why people go to vote. This is one theory. It's voting cost. But it might be this one. We can use it to explain why these people don't go to vote. Especially their vote. Their cost is very high. Their cost is very high. The other variable might be the party identification. For the people who is party identification. They are much easier to be mobilized. And they may go to vote because of their belief. Because of their ideology. But the difference of party ideology became blue. Blue and party identification became weaker. And you... So the party identification no longer functioned well to mobilize voters. That is according to American stuff. We study American politics. Study American party identification. And we get these results. But it might be you can use party identification. Because we know some people. Once again, using my father as an example. He was a very strong, very strong candidate. He used to be a very important candidate supporter. No matter the candidate say so. Say anything. He will say yes. They may go to vote. My father was a soldier. And he tried to persuade us. Or order us to follow the same voting choice. Of course I will follow definitely. I will go and support the party of China. And once I go into there. Who I vote in my mother world will never know. Of course I will say I will definitely support your candidate. For this kind of people. The people like my father. Party identification is very strong. And because of the letter. Because of the phone call from the party branch. The party branch will say. Today we are going to vote for Debbie. And the women don't even know you. And my father will say. Okay fine. Then we go to vote for Debbie. To me it's very strange. Why I'm going to vote for someone I don't know. I even don't know your political. Who you are. And I don't know. But I'm going to vote. My father will do that. Two years ago my father passed away. So now I can say a lot of things about him. So the final one. It might be another theory to explain. Especially we are focused on minority. Minority political participation. Usually we say why the minority person. Minority people they don't go to vote. They are less participation. Because the social demographic factor. Lower socioeconomic status. Curves lower to minority. Because they think they have spent a much more time. Earning their lives. They may don't care about politics. It might be. That used to be. But the black people studies. Black people studies. In the 1970s. Some studies about the American black people. And they say they found that if they can elect a black mayor. And in less constituency. The black people's participation will get much higher. Than average. So they call this called black political empowerment. And political trust. Because of political empowerment. Then black people study the trust politics. They believe the correct system. The existing system. Can overland the chance. To change their status. Even black people can be elected as a mayor. As a governor. So they study trust the system. So. And we hire them now. Great. Because we are going to support our own candidate. And I think the most clear example is. Is the Barack Obama. He's the election. He's the election. The channel is much higher than before. Especially for black people. Especially for black. For black people. We regard this as a kind of. The fun. Contribute to. Is the black political empowerment. This kind of result. So I'm going to use this three. These three. Variables. Or factors. These three variables. To explain. Why? Why? They don't. They don't go to vote. But before we started to learn. Part. We are going to have some facts. And conventional wisdom. Traditionally. Traditionally. We say that indigenous people. They don't go to vote. So. They have lower turnout rates. Usually it's 10 to 20%. So. For hard people. For the general election. For the parliamentary election. The turnout rate for hard people. For ordinary Chinese people. Is 60 to 65%. That is our turnout rate. But for indigenous voters. Then 45 to 50%. And. 45 is for the blind indigenous people. And. The 50 is for the blind indigenous people. Later I will explain. Why we have these two different numbers. In this view. They are all election rules. Doubting. And the plan. In this election. There is nothing to do with others. They have their own gains. Which guarantee their parliamentary representation. And. However. You may also say. These people are isolated from towns. Mainstream politics. So. Once you are indigenous people. The people of the identification. Identification is. If your father. One of your parents. One of your parents. You can climb. You can be indigenous. Once you have this identification. You can't change it. You can't give up. You can't give it up. So. If your father. If your father is indigenous. You will be. And your children will be. Children will be indigenous. But. If your mother is indigenous. And your father is. Normal. Then you have choice. When you are. You have choice. You can decide to give it up. Or keep your indigenous. Identification. That is a little bit of a stretch. But. That is what. Happened in Taiwan. So. And. If you. If your father is. Right. Right. If you are. Mountain indigenous people. Then you can't change it. You can't. Or your plan. So. Where is mountain? Where is plan? This. Is based on your ancestors. Before when is the. 18. 1895. Properly in the. Very early in the 20th century. When the Japanese. When the Japanese. Taiwan. And they start to. At that moment. Because the. The plan area. Basically. Is the free control of. Japanese. From your government. But for the mountain area. They have. They have. So. At that moment. For. U.S. U.S. Live in the plan area. And you are indigenous. That you will be indigenous. Plan indigenous. At that moment. U.S. As the. Living in the mountain area. Then you will be the mountain indigenous people. And. In 1945. After 1945. The. Government of. The Chinese government. Okay. We'll take. To the town. To the town. This island. And then they carry it. This is. They never change. They never change it. So. That will be. Quite strange. Very strange. Very strange. Okay. Okay. But. When you are indigenous. And then you are. You are. Not indigenous people. But. It could happen. It could happen. Okay. So. When we. Disagreed. The golden vote or not. Nothing will change. Will be changed. In Taiwan's politics. So. Why vote. If you are indigenous. If you go to vote. You. You go to vote. Or not go to vote. You won't change the president. the presidential election result and the candidate that they don't care about you, 2.3%, most of the candidates that they don't care about you, they won't go to their campaign schedule traveling, they won't go to Indigenous area. Because it costs too much time and money. Maybe money is not an issue, but it costs too much time. So they won't do that. They will definitely do that. For Indigenous people, for Indigenous voters, if I go to vote, I can't change anything. Even when we are united together and we can't change anything, why we go to vote? So that is not a statistic. It's based on my field of work experience. Especially for younger generation. Why we didn't go to vote? We can't change this vote. Even for parliamentary elections, they already guarantee 6 seats. Even at 6 seats, they are still minority. Because now in Taiwan, the side of the parliamentary seats is 113. Only at 6 seats, you can't... Even if you use your both hands, both legs during the vote, you still lose, right? You still lose. So at least for Indigenous people, they are very pathetic. They don't think they can change. They don't think they can change the politics. Even they can't protect their own interests. So many of them say they don't want to go to vote. The other factor is the inland migration of Indigenous people. Driven by economic needs, forced men to leave hometown and constantly raise their voting costs. So they can't afford the cost of voting. The money, mainly, a lot of Indigenous people, if you go to ask them why you don't want to vote, they will give you this reason. Even government officials, even government officials, they believe this is the reason. So probably that is estimated. If you live in Taidong, in the east of Taiwan, it will cost you about $2,000 for a return ticket from Taipei to Taidong. Then either the single trip is the most fast, the most fast train, takes you about five hours. Five hours. And you have more to buy. And they do an old ferry if you don't work that day. So I'm going to the research design and the hypothesis and the variables. And they do say it's more and I say it's much. So it doesn't agree, both of us, because we don't have the evidence. We already have the evidence to prove it. Why you don't go to vote? Because of the voting toasted? Because of the season duty? No, we don't know that. So to resolve this problem, the survey study was conducted and sent for the most, the most and the TKT, Taipei University, they provide me some funding. And this research was conducted in the year 2013 and 2016. I conducted this survey twice. Indigenous political behaviors and they edited this survey. So I'm still very interested in what is the most. Mystery of the science and technology. In short, we call it the most. And the TKU. So each time we have the 1,000, 1,000 and the 102,000 in Indigenous interviews. And this is the very first in the political behavior survey in Taiwan. Actually, in Taiwan, if the sample comes from Indigenous, the whole sample from Indigenous, except for the Senegal or Canberra, I think my research is the very first one. I'm holding one. Because they are doing the social trends survey, probably that they have, they did this kind of survey once, but they're talking about, it's not about the politics, it's not about the political behavior. My research is the very first in political behavior survey. So I have some assumptions, some hypotheses. So voters with their own representatives versus voters with now their own representatives. Because we say, TKU and Indigenous people, they are not at home. Actually, they are not at a single race. In Taiwan, we have at least 16, 16 different Indigenous races. So the population sizes from the 200,000 something to 400 or 600 for one tribe or one race. Voter with party identification, and I'm going to check out if you have political empowerment and the secondary is party identification, then to examine the effectiveness of the voting cost of the distance. Basically, the voting cost in Taiwan, we mentioned about, especially when this is talking about how far, how far you have to travel to cast a vote. Then I have some control variables of the gender, age, education, and the religion. The value of a religion, why use religion is this issue because in Taiwan, Taiwan basically is not a Christian country. Christian in Taiwan is about 100,000 or 200,000 only. Probably the total is a Christian. But for Indigenous people, more than 70%, more than 70%, they are Indigenous, they are Christian. Catholic to Jesus, and then the other one is called per... Yeah. It's very difficult for me to promise you that. I don't know why, but it's very difficult. So church, you surely do have influence on Indigenous people. So I have to share with you the evidence from my qualitative research of my field of work. If you go to Taiwan and you go to visit any Indigenous tribe, if there is only one church over there, you definitely can find a church. No matter which Christian... I'm sorry, Catholic or a different church, if there is only one church, they think it must be very strong. They must be very united. They can do anything. They will be encouraged by the priest, by the church. No matter the church or the priest, they say anything, they will just follow it. But if they have two churches, they will be horrible. That entire tribe will be divided into two parts. If they have three churches, they can do nothing. They can do nothing. That is true. This is very true. So in the future, if you go to Taiwan, you can visit Indigenous tribes. That is a very funny thing. We may be very... For example, I'm living in Yilan. There is one Indigenous township called Nangang. There is a tribe called Biaohao. They have one road in the middle of the village. If you go there, the right-hand side is the... What is that? The other one is the true Jesus. You might be relatives, but you never talk. If you use someone, if you dare to marry someone in the same village, but in different areas on the other side, I think the final result is that you move out. That is what is happening in the Indigenous community. But it is quite interesting because in 2016, suddenly the church leaders, they suddenly united together and decided they told the Indigenous people, they used the church's behaviour. They said, Go to vote is a blessed behaviour. They said so. They said so. And because there is no interest conflicted, they just encouraged it. Because the different churches, the true Jesus encouraged their believers, to go to vote. And the ladies didn't say, Go to vote to whom? They didn't say so. They just said, Go to vote. This is very important. You have to express your opinion. Go to vote. In 2016, we have the highest... We have the highest general rate of Indigenous people in the history. So I put the religion as a variable. So I am over in some... It's a very simple one. I just cross-stayed voting. I sent you a background and I sent you a background versus the voting participation. In Taiwan, Amidst, Danyang, Chiruku, Seijieq, and Baiwan, these races, these Indigenous races, they have their own representatives because they are larger people. Taiwan has... We have around half a million Indigenous people. And this half a million... So we have a quarter of... Quarter of a million is Amidst. Quarter of Amidst. So they are largest. They are largest Indigenous race in Taiwan. Danyang, Chiruku, and Seijieq, they used to be of one race called Danyang. And gradually, I think it is about 10 years ago, they claimed they are belong to different races. So they are recognized. Now they are recognized as three different Indigenous races. The other one is Baiwan in the South Taiwan. Only in history, in our history, from 1950, from 1950 to now, when owning your Indigenous identity from these races, then you can win the election. We have two exceptions. Two exceptions. But at the end of all, one is from Puyuma and the other one is from Puyuma. But why? Why these two small races? The candidates from these two small races, they can win. Because at the end of the moment, the seats, the guaranteed seats to Indigenous people is four seats for multi-Indigenous people and the four seats for the Pank Indigenous people. Then Ling, they have chomps. They have chomps. So then we can see that if you are a mix of Baiwan, 70% of these people go to vote. If you are an Indigenous race, only 6-3% go to vote. So at least we know they have some difference. If you belong to, if you are on this basis, you've got a higher probability to go to vote. But in 2012, it's not so clear. It's not so clear. 2008 and 2012, one thing is very different. 2008, the parliamentary election and the presidential elections are not at war, not at the same day. It's different days. This is the same day. It's the same day. So the party identification is also clear. So if you support the candidate of the Pank group and the Pank Green, you can see here 2,000 days, 78%. 78%. If you are Pank group, you are going to vote. But if you are Pank Green, only 66% or 67% go to vote. If you are politically neutral, less than 50%. Less than 50%. So this sounds like if you have party identification, you have a stronger motivation to go to vote. Then the voting cost. The voting cost in the distance because it is very difficult to measure it. So I basically use it from type play. Up, down. This is from where your workplace and the distance to your workplace to your household registration place. We need to see any... To be frank, we don't see the difference. If your voting cost is higher, you go to vote in percentage, you go to vote in 34%. If your voting cost is lower, it's 31% on the focus. There are only three percent difference. It's that very huge. It sounds like a voting cost is not an issue, right? But why are these people still keeping... They keep saying... Because our voting cost is much higher than yours, so we don't go to vote. And if you don't ask them a lot, they don't matter you after voting. As long as he or she is in difference, you ask them this question, I can guarantee 90% they will answer you because of voting cost, because we have to travel a lot of... We have to travel very long. But the empirical evidence shows... No, it's not. It's not. So what is the reason? What is the reason? I'm going to jump to the research... I just skipped a lot of the studies. We're going to analyze these. We're going to jump into the research findings. Indeed, as the voting participation behavior is influenced by the party and the church, electoral organization, and the political empowerment and the social economic status. The voting cost... is influenced by the social economic status. Party and the church electoral mobilization is effective and will not be affected by the current elections. So it doesn't matter the presidential election and the parliamentary election having the same day or night. It's always a fact. It always brings an influence on the voting participation. If you are pan-blue, you've got a higher motivation to vote than pan-green. Then go to political neutral. But why? If your party has a blue one or you support the campaign, you've got a higher motivation to vote. Because you can win. Because always you can win. For the pandering in history, there are very few charms. Very little charms to win the indigenous vote in the indigenous election. Almost hopeless. So low-winning charms and no party mobilization in the indigenous area, that is probably the reason why if you are pan-green support, you are DPB supporters, you've got to go to vote. But for some of us, they'll go to vote because of the ideology. So all the church leaders that is what we just mentioned about. They stand up to encourage indigenous voters who constantly vote. It works, it really works. They are most willing to vote 2.5 times higher than others. This is 2.5 times higher than others. It is the probability to vote because I have a status model. So because the church leaders didn't join this appeal, they didn't join. So they have lower turnout rate. They have less... They have less go-to vote. But if you are a Christian, sorry if you are a Catholic, the pre-blessed priest, I have actually missed words. They've got to much higher, they've got to much higher probability to go to vote. So if you are amazing, Daniel, Chu, and Saint-Jacques and by one, voters are more willing to vote because they can win and they do win. And they have their representatives. But why they can win because the population size is too much. So the input is the voting, and the voting cost and distance The voting cost is very subjective. To be friendly, when we talk about the voting cost, I'm sure with you today, yesterday I was just arriving in London, I was just arriving in Gaelic, Gaelic to the airport, and I and one of my friends we went to buy, we went to buy the ticket, the train ticket. The single train, it's 90.9 pounds. It's almost 20 pounds. The return ticket is the 3600, 3700 something. The single train ticket is 20 pounds. 20 pounds is the exchange rate to 20 dollars. It's about 800 dollars. So from Gaelic to Saint-Jacques London, it comes at about 30 minutes. Suddenly the travel by train in Taiwan is probably from Taipei to... No, I'm probably telling you. I think we pay less than 120 dollars. Then it comes at about 800 dollars in London. Oh, it's very high, it's very close to Maine. But you might be already used to it, right? Not a few Europeans from Helsinki airport. Helsinki makes 6 euros. At the same time, same distance. Okay, so what am I saying? In UK, in UK, your salary might be higher. So you might be, you don't regard it 20 times. Probably I say probably. You don't regard 20 pounds as a lot of money. And you may be reasonable. I can say that. I can say that. Try to say it. Be okay. Be okay, they don't care about this 20 pounds, right? But I do care. I do care. And you might care. Why for the 20 pounds? For different people, it's probably 20 pounds. Because of our social economic status. Because of our state. So, voting costs might still exist. But for different people, we have a different attitude, a different feeling about this cost. So actually, so the input of the voting cost of this is nothing but it. Social economic status is not here. But if you are the highest SES voting cost may not care about the voting cost. Because the late can afford it. Lower SES must come. And during my research, we found out distance is no problem. But your occupation is a problem. If you are military, if you are serving the army, if you are a government, highly employed, for different people, if you are military personnel and you are police, you are civil service, you are teachers, and you are white collar, you are doing it. You have a higher social economic status. Distance is down there. Voting cost is not the issue to you. And because I'm a Saturday, this is your day off. You don't. But for the lower social economic status, for example, if you are construction worker, a construction worker, you are a carpenter, you must go to work then you can earn that money, right? For land, they don't have Saturday. They don't have weekend. They don't have weekend. And to do this kind of people, for this kind of people, they have to spend $2,000 for the return ticket and spend the whole day on this vote, on this vote. Of course, to land, of course to land, the voting cost is not higher. So it's occupation, not the voting distance to influence their voting choice or voting occupation. In this people don't vote. It's not because they are far away from home, but they can't vote because they time the money. And even though some of these people around the 15th have moved into the metropolitan area and they have registered in the city, they still have lower time-out rates. So it's not distance, but SES determined to vote or not. For the indigenous people they are already moving to the city in the metropolitan area. But if they are happy, if they are still in the lower socioeconomic status, if they are in construction work, they just need to go downstairs and they take their 5 minutes or 10 minutes to walk because they will not. Because rather than they prefer to go to work, they prefer to go to work. But unfortunately in Taiwan these people about 80% of the indigenous people they are warm, their job is about construction. They are cooperators. They usually do a very dangerous and dirty work because they are dirty and they don't walk. So if they don't go to work they can't have this moment. They usually pay by day. They usually pay by day. If you go to work, you get party. If you don't go to work, you don't get back. So, of course, to land is not just about the ticket and also about their voting cost that must include the day the salary, the day salary. So of course to land of course to land the voting cost is much higher. So that is another one. So basically I use statistic. I can't have a supply and I can't also collect data and I do some statistics and analyze the data and I find out I provide some empirical evidence to prove it to prove why these people don't go to work. Why these people don't? The positive variables is if you have party identification and if you have a religion your church encourages you to do that and if you belong to a larger race larger race and you do have your own representatives you have more in time you have more motivation to go to vote. But traditionally the conventional ones can tell us how it is difficult to go to vote because the voting cost it is partly true it is only partly true because different people have different feelings different evaluation about the voting cost. So finally we find out is the social economic statement that you try to make do you go to vote or not? It should be like I mean the voting cost is high or low then having friends are your voting cost patient then is the one in the very surgery recently I'm doing now is doing now so it's about yeah it's about the AEPN so it should be okay Yeah it was pretty good it was fantastic it was really good to hear a very different approach to the study of political approaches how we need this Okay yeah I have quite a lot of questions I'll try and limit myself between one thing kind of a practical level based because you're the first person to do this kind of survey I can imagine you're probably being asked about what kind of reforms would be useful to actually promote high levels of Indigenous How do you increase our rate? And a kind of related question is okay you've shown that social status is important but if you're doing the same study on lower social status and regular terms do you think you would have a similar quality? Not so clear Okay I go starting from the second question for the older returnees people for older returnees people the social status the social status the lower social status even the lower social status but the limited to a certain very special professional jobs if you're paid by a day they also have lower rates but if you're just in your good shop for other for other different professional jobs they have a higher their voting participation is basically the same to others but for Indigenous people because they need the most Indigenous people their job is paid by day that is the most important issue in Taiwan for Indigenous people our government each year they allocate a huge amount of budget to provide subsidies to Indigenous people to Indigenous people they basically tuition free and geo-college they are basically tuition free so why we provide such a huge subsistence to them because we believe that we have the they are we provide this kind of we provide this subsistence but why Indigenous people they steal a lot of people they interrupt they give up their study during their college time and they tell you because of economic age I have been asked why so curious about this question and I conducted informal one before I started to ask these students I asked these students and asked why you have scholarship because of subsidies but why you still give up these I told us these scholarships these subsidies they earn they have to give this money to their parents to their parents to support their entire families so they still have to work to start to earn their tuition free to earn their living cost that is a very serious problem there is this one so social status why the social economic status is so important so significant because overall Indigenous economy situation is very very bad in Taiwan the unemployment rate is about 5% but if you go to Indigenous tribe for example I just mentioned the whole Latin tribe the unemployment rate is 50% 50% half of them have no job and in Taiwan if you are Indigenous people 70% of Indigenous people they are classified as lower income and they don't need to pay they don't need to pay income tax and they get subsidies from government and they don't need to pay the national health insurance they don't need to pay that they don't need to pay that but even though even though they still can't afford they still can't afford most of Indigenous people are very cool so we go back to the question one is the reforms once I started I started this research and some government officials already know that and I already present this paper in the conference and the Ministry of Interior Affairs and Council for Indigenous Affairs they started to contact me they asked me to try to draft a proposal how we can improve to resolve this problem I I wasn't very polite I don't want to say something bad to them and truthfully I already say that I say fuck you you already know the result you know how the result these kind of people have been ever met for more than 20 years why we can't vote we can't why we can't use the we can't mail or post oh sorry post the verb so you just simply needed to do that you can resolve this problem you can increase the overall rate but why they don't do so why in Taiwan the government or DPP they don't want to do so because they don't trust each other they don't trust each other for the KMT for the KMT part they want to include they want the old overseas tourist people especially those who have walk they walk or invest in China DPP they don't they refuse they don't want these people come back to vote I assume these people will support KMT but I really want to say no DPP is wrong DPP is wrong KMT is also wrong is also wrong actually for these people who live in China or they walk in China they are not necessary support KMT but because of the they don't trust each other so if they allowed if they allowed in the indigenous people to make more little ballot and DPP will say we can apply this one we can apply this one especially those people who live in China and DPP don't want they don't want to have a chance to have this one and also for the military if we allowed this one we were allowed to mail our ballot then how about our army traditionally if you are serving army you are regarded as the KMT support about police so I told them if you you can have a pilot pilot just an experiment put out the indigenous people because they are individual they are separate it's nothing to do it's nothing to do with it's nothing to do with with Taiwan's mainstream politics so we can we have some experiment in indigenous people in indigenous in indigenous election and for KMT for DPP whatever whatever you can't win so if you have this experiment it's nothing to do with it's no harm with you I told them that but they for the civil service part for the mystery of the interior affairs and council of indigenous affairs they already know that and every time they propose there is one every time they propose this we go to the floor there are definitely two parties these two parties the two major parties they refuse to discuss this one not because of they don't know their reason they never break and they are afraid of if once they allow what kind of influence will on the mainstream politics so that's why I told them never come back to me I will never attend this kind of public hearing then to waste my time I will not go there anymore ok Charles thank you Professor Bao for your interesting presentation my first question is talk about the religious effects and your data you have shown that a religious factor among indigenous people is in favour of the religious effects of nothing the religious factor is not why religious factor works in this election in these two elections this is because this time these church leaders they all inside go to vote but the ladies they vote to whom so no interest conflict so that is why the religious factor is so significant to the bold participation but if you to analyze I also do another one is the voting choice the religion is the religion factor is not the reason why I am asking this question is that normally as we understand the religious factor in Taiwan should be or supposed to be in favour of the TPP does that you know mean something in this among these indigenous people I mean there is the church they behave differently or the same with other churches supposedly they are all vegetarian church basically they are all chained by the theological colleges so that is my question I know your question and that is my following two years it is my research topic it is about the religion the religion factor in indigenous projects you just mentioned about the church it sounds like they are supposedly the TPP but the church leader is church leader right in the ordinary delays successfully implicitly change the voters no definitely not definitely not why on Thursday I will talk about this one part of it voting behaviour for indigenous voting behaviour the most important factor is the relationship it is basically stronger than the religion much stronger than the religion it is about if one of my relatives for example if my sister is going to run for the village head you don't need to think about the whole entire family you don't need to think about where we are definitely going to vote for her and for indigenous people their definition of relative relative is quite different to ours well if I say we are relatives probably we say we have the same grandfather right normally in Chinese people will say we are relatives probably because we have the same grandfather but for indigenous people you might have the same grand grand grand in four generations and you have some connection that you are relatives and they do know they do know they do know this and once this kind of relationship has been confirmed that you are relatives all you are you are a recogonizer as a family member then you can be become then you will be very strong tie and then you will definitely vote for her my second question is about the very beginning question that you are asking you say the ten hour rate among indigenous people is about ten to ten to ten lower than the average ten hour rate the statistics you have shown that I think they will identify some significance among the voting behavior among indigenous people but it seems that people will explain the difference between indigenous people and non-indigenous people because your data says doesn't include non-indigenous people there so how could you explain the ten let it be that's the aggregate data from the commission the central election commission because they are separated in the electoral road so we know how many indigenous people go to birth how many ordinary indigenous people go to birth in the ten hour rate we can see that so I go further this research I go further I identify why many people they don't go to birth in terms of this probably suggesting that probably you will need a bigger data setting which could include some non-indigenous people so that you can make difference you can control all variables and then you can see why ten or ten percent lower than you can explain in this way the violence part actually when I come down to this in the same day I have another one that is about the ordinary indigenous people I come down to that what I would suggest but I will try to learn to say on the sea different you can explain we are trying to explain because the voting participation in about 20 years was quite popular in the past 20 years especially in Taiwan I just mentioned usually ten hour rate for the presidential election is 70 to 80 percent for the parliamentary election is about 60 to 65 percent so ten hour rate is much higher so we don't there is an important issue we really want to know why the time rate is sometimes the time rate is low we are not whispering we are thinking about probably because the time rate in Taiwan might be much higher than 70 percent might be 90 percent might be 90 percent because when we do survey when we conduct survey every time is about 10 percent 10 percent of the respondent they say they don't vote vote usually 10 percent but I could get the data about the official government state disc number tell us the time rate is 70 percent so what's the difference where is this disappeared why is it 20 percent disappeared is the this respondent that lied to us maybe not maybe not because we never count how many tourist people they are abroad okay you mean particularly in particular case so the time rate might be much higher might be the highest in the world okay this might be Australia because they are from Australia if you if you are afraid to vote I think personally I think Taiwan might be the highest in our rate but I have no evidence to prove it so now we have a team which might cooperate with the central commission trying to get some information about this one now we are all united okay you mentioned for people who know social economic status that they have the opportunity to vote it's not easy for them then you think that I thought post-voting and then you mentioned post-voting post-voting is a problem in the UK they allow post-voting but the European commission has issued a statement saying that it's a very risky process open to abuse and manipulation and there have been a number of prosecutions I apologise to certain people because I'm going to mention the S word during the Scottish referendum usually post-votes reflect the general vote but in the Scottish referendum post-votes were overwhelmingly anti-Scottish independence and we had a leading anti- anti-independence politician say during the vote counts I'm not Elizabeth worried I've seen a post-vote but she was not supposed to have even looked at post-votes never mind no what was in there so a lot of people in Scotland believe that post-votes were new created I personally have no view but I love them so I'm not I don't think that's the answer and my other that's my inspirational question is kind of isn't it the nature of bourgeois representative democracy that people feel voting can I really change something because you only under this system those countries that I don't know and you only can exercise your democratic right for one day for one day you're sorry in your country now after that whoever wins in your certain description is your representative and your access to power is welcome now I think also the closeness of people to the representative bodies I don't have my notes but if you compare a local government in Scotland with policy, it was realized in the 70s and it was imposed from where it was for local elections I think one representative for several thousands of people in Norway it's one representative for just a few hundred so you're much closer to the actual representatives and to power itself at least at local level so is the answer and the change in any voting system changing in a way local and national representation is managed I kind of a follow-up question to Ivan's one if you're doing the analysis if you're comparing the voting rate for national elections and real cross-route local elections would the result be different? for the gross-route elections for Indigenous people the voting rate usually is around 90% to 100% because the entire region is highly mobilized and the fundamental vote because if you're a local village level everyone will vote so they can count every vote because that is a very very likely your vote can change the rate maybe it's 100 200 votes in total so any votes can't no matter where you are anyway someone will offer you some money to cover your travel expenses travel costs and your parents maybe call you everything come back to vote come back to vote so the much higher motivation much higher motivation more gross-route election much higher much much higher 10-hour rate I saw that before it's only communist countries can see 100% 10-hour rate even they can tell you 99% but in China in some villages they do have 100% 10-hour rate that's horrible okay a few quick questions one is who is the both the known of Taiwanese boating behaviour but secondly more importantly you know when you gave this example of the kind of qualification criteria which befits indigenous populations male mother and father and all of that business you know it comes across from the outside as being kind of gerrymandering in the highest degree and given the fact that the current regime is more sympathetic to the indigenous population than the previous ones shouldn't there be some kind of campaign for affirmative action in this regard to fix that problem because it clearly has some kind of disproportionate effect if someone is thinking oh with my father's side and then there will be generations bound and all the rest of it it's going to have some kind of impact there there's a lot of trains surely that would apply also which is you know if there is a determined effort to include the indigenous population within the democratic process then the train situation should be you know something should be done about giving them some kind of facility whereby they can vote from where they are while they're having to pay for that campaign back and forth about this one first of all in Taiwan indigenous their constituency is based on their identity it's not because of where they live so no matter where you live if you are a mountain indigenous people then you vote for a mountain indigenous people in your election if you are playing indigenous people you vote for playing indigenous people in your election so the entire Taiwan is your constituency you have trouble overall as you just mentioned when you say the entire constituency you mean that you don't have to travel no, you don't have to travel for example I'm a mountain indigenous people but my household registration is down in the east of Taiwan and so you would have to go back so that's the whole point which is that if affirmative action was being genuinely done to include them in the democratic process it could easily be done to rectify this situation they could just be it could be a kind of bylaw which would give them that situation actually what you have then you can appeal you can apply you can vote on your workplace it sounds like it's very easy right but we have another problem first of all these kind of people these indigenous people you have to go to the election commission to register the more important part is the more important part once you do that that means that you will vote in choice it's very easy to be identified because the entire counting of it is only one indigenous vote then it's very clear it will be very clear that will be another problem so basically if they want to switch their household registration they can do that it's just the bureaucratic cost and the potential and some people ideally don't want to change their household registration because if you register in the title or audio sometimes you can get some extra benefit you get some extra benefit once you move out then you just vote that and the Bogdano of Taiwanese politics who is the Bogdano of Taiwanese voting behaviour Bogdano is the famous voting behaviour specialist coming up famous coming up famous who is the Taiwanese voting behaviour specialist in the past 30 years we drew the vote of Taiwanese voting behaviour scholars doing about this poll I'm not quite sure about who you mentioned basically I said about party politics but the total people in the past 30 years so many scholars Taiwanese or even American scholars they do research about it but isn't that on the spiritual one no yeah go ahead have you looked into whether there is a difference in commitment to particular issues that are coming up at particular elections and what I'm getting at here is a lot of Taiwanese politics is about the relations to China and mainland China relations and so on and those issues might not seem very relevant to indigenous people there isn't maybe we might say a left-right politics there isn't a party that is necessarily concerned with the working class as against the George Washington so if most of the indigenous people are doing very bad then if there were an issue to do with increasingly improving the conditions of value-paying workers then they by then feel that they had a real experience about this part that is quite interesting to me it's quite interesting to the political sides the other scholars who especially for the law they don't want they are unwilling to change their value-study indigenous people's behavior because the result is predictable the result is predictable because I'm sure that I will talk about this part more I need to be aware every time the election result can be predicted because you can see which trial, which race they nominate they come out you can count you can count because basically you can assume the by one by one people I did this debate before 90% of the time by one people were voted for by one candidate 90% so let me say we have only one by one candidate then you can use the number of voters and times 90% then you can see the result so basically the issue is you can cross-strait the issue cross-strait the relationship issue of course the UN issue or the foreign policy this always kind of be as an artist in relative to indigenous politics and in the past in the past no matter the DPP government they have they have so many beautiful promise but they never realized it the candy government they never promise they just provide cities okay this is true in this video I will say okay if we support the KMD I know I will get what I will get I voted for DPP that is that I vote for a dream after 20 years it has been proved never realized so that is part of the reason why these people then become very realistic they intended to vote for because at least even if you don't pass laws to guarantee our autonomy but at least I know what kind of social welfare or what kind of subsidies I can get so when you see the MP, the parliamentary elections I voted for 8 years ago the most famous platform and the very what so efficiently is that one candidate decide every indigenous household can have can have free gas free gas free gas each family you can have a one one? that's not very much one bottom cylinder you can have one one standard free and that candidate doing that candidate did and for the very first time he can he won seat with a very large margin I don't know I have a follow up question very early on you used the term alienation and I was thinking about your control variables about age so does age your question is there a difference between the degree that younger people are engaged in no no no it's different younger generation they become more they don't they don't care about the YouTube you want to come in on that I just want to what the earliest age is you can vote in Taiwan age 16 18 Scotland is at 16 and that's been quite recently introduced just before the referendum and what it's done is that generation because in all elections UK national elections national elections the 16 exclude the UK elections they're not allowed to vote now but the 16 to 18 age group vote in greater numbers than the 20 to 30 age group but in Taiwan the voting age is 20 but for indigenous people why the younger generation they don't go to vote and they feel isolated from the mainstream politics because for their father generation or our generation or even our father generation what do they think about finding a good job now you go to an indigenous tribe go to an indigenous community several months ago I just went to an indigenous tribe and one man or one girl is about 20 just graduated from college and she joined army become a soldier become a soldier the entire village organized a banquet to celebrate this one to celebrate this one for indigenous tribe the best the best job the best job is the police teacher teacher of course civil service police military then if you have one of them is a job and in this community your social status immediately become much higher and then why is that this guarantee your entire family you will also have a stable income so that is why that is why I go to an indigenous tribe and they just met them to celebrate this one and I am so curious so curious and I am going to ask I will sort it out and it is married I saw this wedding but it is not it is just because they are going to celebrate someone get a job in the army someone get a job in the army so for those people what they care about is is economic issues only those who those people for those people now more and more indigenous younger generation indigenous people they are well educated now it is about 70% 70% of the high school indigenous high school students 70% of the high school students they will go to college they will go to college so now in my age when I was in 1989 I was a freshman and then more in the university it is very difficult to see an indigenous people it is very difficult but now it is very common now it is very common they are more educated they are well educated now but they are more disappointed because they start to realize they can't change this world they can't change anything but so that is why they are more actively participating in politics they usually support the DPP they usually support it they always assume before 2016 they assume they vote for DPP they are more rewarded I have another paper to talk about this foundation how how these people can get the most benefits from the politics and so in 2016 I publicly I publicly told the appeal to tell the indigenous friends you should support DPP sorry you should support KMT of course I was screwed because a lot of people criticized me I think that is for the best benefit it is the best benefit for indigenous people and they don't believe me but the truth is I am right okay on that note we should continue our discussion and the other thing to mention is that Professor Baal's next talk will be on Thursday at Semlotop in the KLT okay so let's thank Professor Baal