 As we watch Ukraine's fight for its independence unfold before our very eyes as Russia's invasion of the country continues, there are many questions that we are asking. Could this conflict proceed something greater? What exactly does Russia want from Ukraine? Can we expect more invasions like this in the near future? I would like to take a few weeks to answer some of these questions in my videos so we can have a greater understanding of the global ramifications of this war and how the global order will change as a result. Today I will look into a few different scenarios as to how the war in Ukraine will result based on the current events and my own intuition. I also plan to make a video covering Russia's different post-Soviet alliances such as the CSTO, CIS, and Eurasian Union and how they play into this conflict, in addition to a video covering what specifically Russia wants from Ukraine. Though there are likely more events that have transpired since the making of this video, the current situation in Ukraine looks a bit like this. Russia has invaded from the east in the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as from Belarus, already arriving at the city limits of Kiev, and from Russian occupied Crimea. Though the Americans and Europeans have sent military aid and sanctions towards Russia, they have not supplied Ukraine with reinforcements. Turkey has played a principal role in the defense of Ukraine by closing off the Black Sea straits to Russian warships. If you watched my video from two months ago about the prospect for war, you will see that my predictions have played out with near-accuracy, which is, to be honest, a little unsettling. I don't believe that Russia will invade any of the NATO countries, but if they did, that would almost certainly instigate a world war. Now, I will provide three different scenarios that I see as likely results of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a fourth scenario which I personally see little chance of occurring but I still believe is worth mentioning. Number 1. Russia annexes the south and east of Ukraine. This is a possibility that most people don't think about, as I feel like there is this binary view of the war, where people believe that either Ukraine will prevail in full, or be completely trampled over by Russia. However, there are certain parts of Ukraine that Russia prioritizes over others. These areas are in the south and east of the country, on the border with the Federation, and along the coastline. The region in question holds strategic naval ports, gas reserves, industrial potential, and if Russia occupies it, there will be greater distance from the industrial heartland of Russia to an independent country. The reason I see this possibility as likely is because of the fierceness of the Ukrainian people. Though it is highly unlikely that the entire country can be salvaged from this invasion, the Ukrainians will not see their country fall at the hands of the invaders, no matter the cost. Even though Ukraine would have lost a large chunk of its land, including some of its most strategic regions, there would still be great pride in the nation, as it would have survived an attack from one of the most powerful countries in the world. In this scenario, it is more likely that Ukraine would end up being allowed to join the European Union, as its existence as a full Western ally would not be as big of a threat to Russia, due to the greater distance. Yet, there are more reasons as to why I believe this scenario is unlikely to occur. First of all, Russia will try to grab as much land as it can from this invasion, and will not stop until they have the maximum amount of territory they can without invading a NATO member. Though the Ukrainians are indeed fierce fighters, they will still be surrounded on three sides by Russian forces in a flat land nation, where swift invasions can be made easy. Russia would also try to prevent any chance of NATO or the EU gaining allies in its backyard, as even the rump state of Ukraine would be a soft underbelly for the Russian bloc. Number two, Russia turns Ukraine into a puppet state. This is an unfortunately high possibility, and the scenario I would say is the most likely. Though it is clear that Russia could not care less about the reaction of the international community to its actions, there is a chance they would not annex Ukraine so they can look at least partially accountable to the international community by respecting the territorial integrity of Ukraine. In reality, Putin would be instating a new pro-Kremlin government, maybe even bringing back Viktor Yanukovych. Ukraine would become very similar to Belarus, where it is nominally independent, but the country answers to Russia for all political matters. This scenario seems likely due to the continued Russian assault on Kiev, and the Ukrainian government's commitment to stay in the city, even if they are captured. There is a chance they would flee the city if the situation gets dire enough, and they can continue to fight from Lviv, but Zelensky and his government don't seem to have any plans to do that. If the government is captured, the Ukrainian forces would be greatly destabilized as their upper command would be gone, making a Russian takeover much easier. However, Ukrainian partisan fighters would continue to fight even after the fall of the government, and though the country may be ruled by a pro-Russian leader, Ukraine would become very unstable due to the presence of these partisans. My only doubt for this continued presence of partisans is the flat geography of Ukraine making the land easy to control, and I doubt Ukraine would become like Chechnya, where a nominally pro-Kremlin leader rules his land basically independently, as Ukraine would be more directly controlled by the Kremlin. Number 3. Ukraine and Belarus are annexed by Russia. Remember how I said Russia doesn't care about the reaction of the international community? Well there is a good chance they will care so little that they will straight up annex their two East Slavic neighbors, who would essentially already be under their control. Russia has been trying to undermine the national identity of the Ukrainian people and indirectly the Belarusians as well, and we could see a new union stay created within the next five years. Though they would attempt to unite the three East Slavic ethnic groups into one, this effort would be unsuccessful due to the long and unique history of all these people from each other. The best course of action for Russia would be to create an unequal federation, or confederation, where each of the nations are a state within the larger Union state. I believe that because of the situation in Transnistria, Moldova could likely fall prey to being part of this Union state also. I will also make a video regarding how the war in Ukraine will affect the sovereignty of Moldova. These moves would be greatly condemned by the Western powers, with NATO and the EU now having a very long border with Russia that would likely become heavily militarized. Though I don't see it likely that Ukraine will pull through this war with all of its rightful territory, there is always that slim chance of hope that some outside force will aid them with reinforcements to help Ukraine reclaim its lost lands. To me, Turkey seems like the most likely country to help Ukraine, due to its closer proximity and its greater willingness to get involved in foreign wars as it tries to establish itself as a great power. In conclusion, I am hopeful for the Ukrainian people that they will pull through this war with their nation intact, but I am not sure how likely this prospect is. I hope most of all, however, that this war will cause the least hardship and casualties possible and that it will end as soon as possible as well, though it is obvious that Putin will not stop until he sees the end of Ukraine. Until next time, Godspeed to Ukraine and its people in your time of need. Thank you for watching this exclusive Max World Politics Report. Stay tuned in the following weeks as I cover Ukraine's war of independence and the deep complexities involved in it.