 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Thursday morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN, 8 30 AM Thursday morning as we come into the long July 4th holiday and folks, we got markets rocking and rolling right now. As we speak, check out this S&P, we're gonna get two big numbers coming up right now. We're all just delivered at 8 30 AM, weekly jobless claims also delivered 8 30 AM. Markets were already about 20 to 25 points in terms of the S&P in the positive and check out that S&P folks. We're gonna come into this long weekend with an accelerated action to the upside right now looking for those numbers as they come into the news. Jobs increase by almost 5 million folks, 4.8 million. There's the headline. We'll bring it over real quick. Jobs increase by 4.8 million in June versus the estimate of about 3 million. So we had ADP yesterday. We get non-farm payrolls today. They were expected to be at about 2.9. They come in at almost 5 million jobs, unemployment rate 11.1%. That is a beat as well. Now interesting, we're gonna get the weekly initial jobless claims number as well. Only a certain amount of attention that you can pay to all the data coming out this morning, especially coming into a long weekend. But nonetheless, you got the S&P's up about 1.2% right now. Jumping over to the NASDAQ. NASDAQ, how about all-time highs, all-time highs, and I was gonna say on a continual basis every day, NASDAQ all-time highs. Why not? Amazon, let's just jump over to Amazon. How about Bezos, richest man in the world, richest ever at 171 billion I think was his close out as of the close yesterday. Well guess what folks, that number going up again today, and the weekly jobless claims. So that was the number I was waiting for as well. Two big numbers at 830. There's your weekly jobless claims number 1.427 million. The expectation was 1.38. This one is perplexing folks. I mean, we're getting a steady flow of 1.4, 1.3, 1.5 million jobs every single week. That's an initial jobless claim. That somebody's still losing their job within the last week. But nonetheless, we saw the non-farm payroll number rising by almost 5 million, getting back some of those jobs. There's Amazon though, March and hire this morning, 2912, and we gotta jump to it, folks, of all the stuff going on. Have you checked out Tesla this morning? Kaboom, $1,232 for the price of Tesla, keep in track. That's more than $100 above where it closed at yesterday, which was an all-time high. Just early this week, we were at 950, and it looks like we're gonna end the week at around 1220 for Tesla. Remarkable acceleration. We'll jump over to their numbers in a moment. More delivers than they were looking for. They also got an upgrade for Tesla as things just keep rolling. Jumping over to commodities. Crude oil getting a pop on both of those numbers at 830. Crude yesterday up to 4058. Right now you're trading at about $40.33. Go contract down $2. We were at 1807 early yesterday. You trade lower for most of the day to 1770. Early this morning, we're back at about 1785. Within about the last hour though, gold trading lower. Look at this volatility. We're getting on those jobs numbers, folks, 1777. Silver contract basically flat at 1820. And yeah, let's jump to Apple. We gotta jump to Apple. Apple trading higher as well. I don't think Apple made it to all-time highs, did it? Yeah, 372, the all-time high on Apple, dating back to the 23rd of June. We're right up near that level at 367 so far this morning. Why not jumping around to some of those other tech stocks, Microsoft shares, gonna open right now at an all-time high with a bid of 206.40, the all-time high yesterday, 206.35. Let's jump to some of the social stocks. How about this rebound from Facebook, right? Facebook folks gonna open 240, all-time high 245. So much for the boycotts of their advertising. Facebook's almost at all-time highs. Keep that in context as you hear about these advertisers pulling out. It's really not gonna matter if they pull out for 30 days and then they come back and that's what they may do because there's no advertising operation engine, basically like Facebook when it comes to targeting Twitter shares for some context. We're gonna open at about 31, not quite the same story as Facebook, that's for sure. All right, jumping around, let's see. What else we got going on? Where's my stories? Okay. So in terms of Tesla, we'll start it off. Why not? The man Elon going in gonna have himself quite a July 4th weekend. So Tesla deliveries, let's go to it. All right, there we go. Tesla shares sword, it's a little tongue twister, during pre-market trading following the automaker reporting Thursday, it delivered 90,650 vehicles in the second quarter. The analysts are expected about 72,000 vehicles, even on the high end you're talking about 83,000, they come in at almost 91,000, Tesla's up in a big way. So the first quarter of the 2020, Tesla said it made more vehicles than it sold with 102,000 produced and 88 delivered during the second quarter, Tesla made 87,000 vehicles. They had some shutdowns there, so you're gonna see a decrease in supply. And they delivered 95,000 including 77,000 Model 3s, quite a quarter for Tesla, just does not stop. And anytime folks, anytime you see a CEO tweeting out congratulatory messages for all of their employees before they tell the world how they're gonna do in terms of raw numbers, those numbers are probably gonna come in pretty well. And that was the case here. This was the story last night, Elon congratulating his employees ahead of that delivery report. So you are already trading higher on Tesla, Tesla got an upgrade as well today. So getting into the action, I mean, you are already higher. And then things just popped even higher, I think, on the deliveries number at about 7 AM. So you're trading at 11.73, you're up at about 12.16 right now. All right, other stories. Last night it comes out McDonald's, so they're gonna halt the US reopening plans. As coronavirus cases spike, no more indoor dining. They're pausing the US reopening plans for 21 days, franchisees who have already reopened dining rooms are not facing any rollbacks from local officials can decide if they want to keep them open, but McDonald's execs emphasize that franchisees who continue to be disciplined about safety measures. The shame about all this folks is that if everybody would try and wear a mask and not even try if you're able to, things could be a lot more open, but the persistence of the difficulty in any type of social distancing while wearing a mask when you can't as the COVID-19 numbers just rage on. But McDonald's, so about 1,000 out of the 14,000 locations have reopened with reduced seating and that's gonna be a problem as McDonald's already coming out and saying, hold on a second, we're gonna pause that for about 21 days. You see the news last night, McDonald's spikes below 183, but guess what folks? Most jobs jobs this market stocks only go up as they say lately, so sarcastically guess what folks they only go up until they go down. There's an expression in poker when you go all in, it works every time until the last time, right? So be aware stocks only go up until they don't and we're talking about Nasdaq, the biggest technology companies in the world. I was just looking at DocuSign, how about this running DocuSign just in general this morning. We're talking about from $60 in change in March, the low really $65, this morning we're gonna open it 183 on DocuSign, maybe 182, just crazy action. We've all been following Zoom, Zoom to the roof, we're up at about 260, challenging the all-time highs on Zoom as well, continued action. And how about the VIX, how about a 2692 print on that VIX? The low on June 5th, 2354 below that and you'll be talking about February numbers on the VIX as we come into July 4th week. Stay tuned folks, it should be an interesting Thursday in the market, it's digesting those jobs numbers, we're gonna enter those numbers a little bit more and we get back from the break. Many of our new listeners have heard about the Tiger's Den. The Tiger's Den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet, exchange ideas and information in a comfortable moderated atmosphere. Hear all of the TFNN shows, plus see all the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts. 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Right now you're looking at S&P up about 40 points hanging at 3140 Nasdaq Futures up about 100 at 10,368 in the Dow of 372 checking in on Boeing, Boeing's had a volatile week this week as they've been dealing with the recertification of that 737 MAX putting it on a shorter timeframe. We were as high as 195 on Monday when those tests started, Boeing pulled all the way back to below 180 right on the open on Tuesday, a little bit of volatility on the open on Wednesday. Like guess what? We're sitting at about 185. We're gonna open a bit lower on Boeing relatively right near though where we open the week. You did get that pop from about 170 to 180 to 185. Looks like recalibration as 737 MAX looks to get recertified. Things seem to go well, but we'll wait and see how those tests went with whether it was the Boeing pilots or the FAA as well. All right, jumping around to some of those numbers within the jobs number before we get. As well trading higher Asia trading higher. So in terms of the numbers coming out job gain of 4.8 million in June expectation was under 3 million unemployment rate of 11.1. They were looking for about 12.4. Okay, and this is what I want to get into. So the numbers capture all the moves by the 50 states. However, because the government survey comes from the middle of the month, it does not account for the suspension or rollbacks in the region's hit by a resurgence in coronavirus cases. Take that line folks, drill it into your brain, because the dynamic of what's going on has dramatically changed over the last 15 days. This is a big number, but COVID spikes, whether it's in Florida, Nevada, California, you almost can't keep track right now of the spikes going on across the country. Leisure and hospitality again accounted for the biggest jump as the sector saw 2.1 million gain. That was about 40% of the total growth. Another big contributor to the decline in the jobs rate was a plunge in those of temporary layoff. That total fell by 4.8 million in June to 10.6 million after a decrease of 2.7 million. Again, you're dealing with temporary layoffs here. This number is dating back to the middle of June. And I remind you that we're dealing with stories like this, where McDonald's is now pausing the reopening plan for 21 days and saying, if you did reopen, you might be able to keep it open. I mean, you're seeing California yesterday, they just came out. And what's happening? They're talking about bars shut down yet again. So you're gonna see some volatility continuing this one, folks, as that marches on. All right, so China and Hong Kong, Asia stocks were higher last night. Talking about there was the first opportunity for them to really factor in the news, whether it was from Pfizer, not weather, from Pfizer and Biontech showing the potential for a vaccine. Asia shares trained higher, Hong Kong surges nearly 3%. Now remarkable action that you have Hong Kong surging that when the political unrest going on over there, folks, with the new law they passed, I believe there are hundreds of people arrested over in Hong Kong over the course of the last 24 hours. Many of them using that new law that you could risk life in jail, if you're basically not say anything against the transition to China. So nonetheless, it's all about COVID, vaccine potential in Hong Kong trades higher. Okay, a couple of equities, so four, they're gonna partner with Disney to unveil the Bronco SUV on July 13th, 11 days from right now. They're gonna unveil that across the Disney media networks, including ABC, ESPN, excuse me, National Geographic and Hulu. So Ford working with the creative works, the company's in-house agency in creating custom three-minute videos for each network. So you got Ford coming out with the Bronco in about 11 days. Some of my buddies going to high school in the late 90s, the Ford Bronco, one of my buddies had a nice Bronco and they're back in town. So Ford up at the market today, Disney's had some real volatility when it comes to COVID opening and the pullback in terms of it maybe not opening. You see the fall off even from where we were in Disney, we were up June 8th as high as 127 almost. And you just trade to basically a low of 108. This morning though we're gonna open here in 115 on Disney shares as it looks to be good news potentially on their open. Now housing market, a couple of stories jumped out at me. I'm always looking at a bunch of different stories, seeing what's on the market, seeing what's happening and what's hitting equities and so forth. And these real estate stories keep going folks and for the markets out there that was super saturated, I mean Boston, Boston, if you're in the heart of Boston, South Boston prices, my original hometown, Borden Selfie, have been fanatical prices because of the need for people to work in financial or just business hubs. Boston being one of them, San Francisco, New York City, Seattle has some areas of high tech area. Remarkable drops going on in these companies, in these areas, excuse me, as people have the ability to work from home wherever they be. We've seen that Slack, Microsoft, especially the tech companies and the tech companies have built some of the biggest real estate bubbles going on in the country and maybe even the world in terms of needing to be there, Silicon Valley, needing to be there. Those types of centers of economics, average rent for one bedroom apartment in San Francisco fell almost 12% year over year in June, following a 9% year over year drop in May. You got Twitter, Facebook, embracing work from home. Now, so this is San Francisco and I'm jumping around Bloomberg, pretty much a similar article talking about Manhattan home sales. Now that was rents in San Fran. This is home sales in Manhattan. You got a couple things hitting it in terms of whether it's the ability to write off state taxes on your federal income. That is hitting some of the bigger properties, of course, in states like New York and Massachusetts. But you got Manhattan home sales fall most on record in lockdown quarter, purchases of co-ops and condos in the borough tumbled 54% from a year earlier to 1357. Biggest annual decline since the firm started keeping the data in 1990 and there's your drop off second quarter of 2020, 54%. You got to bring it back to basically 2009 in the woes there. I would not be buying a condo or co-op in Manhattan right now, folks. I would be getting out of them as fast I could and why not come on down to sunny Florida and buy a beautiful spot because everybody's going to be coming down to sunny Florida or wherever you want to be and you just fire up your Skype. I'm on Skype. Everybody's on Skype. You can do your show. You zoom, right? You zoom, you doc you sign and you get it all done. But remarkable trends and I don't see those changing anytime soon for those markets specifically. All right, what else we got going on? Stocks making moves. So we talked about McDonald's, they're going to halt further reopenings of the Dine-In service, talked about Tesla. So WebBush was the one that upgraded them to $1,250 from $1,000. They may need to upgrade that price tag by today. Did they tell us that they were going to get to $1,250 by the open this morning? Because they almost are, folks. They were at $1,000. WebBush, well, guess what? We were just at $1,000 on Tuesday and they upgraded to $1,250. We might be at $1,250 by Thursday. That's how fast Tesla is moving. JetBlue reached a deal with its pilot union that will avoid involuntary furloughs until May of next year, according to a memo. The memo did not give any further details. These airline stocks talk about some Max Payne, JBLU, their symbol. JetBlue up a bit with the market today. No real action on that stock as maybe to be expected. Americans said it was overstaffed by about 8,000 flight attendants may seek to cut the workforce through voluntary leaves and early retirements trying to avoid forced layoffs. American, this is volatility yesterday, right now American. The one out there saying that they're going to try and fill their planes. Shortly, good luck to that. Boeing we talked about completed a series of recertification tests out there. So Neo, the China-based electric vehicle maker delivered 3,740 vehicles in June, a monthly record exceeded prior guidance with the second quarter deliveries of 10,331 for the whole quarter. Neo, this one trading higher, maybe a little optimism on the heels of Tesla. Check out that pop from Eaton up to 923 on Neo. Stay tuned folks. Right back to see what else we have on tap for Thursday trading. Back in the day, I joined the Hotel California in 2006 and like many of you was drawn in by as well as whatever you think about you bring about whatever you focus on grows. You see, I believe that everything in life happens for us. Not to us. And Tom ignited the fire within me to want to learn how to master the markets. So how did I go from knowing nothing about technical analysis to becoming the number one market timer for the S&P 500 in 2018 and the number two market timer in 2019? 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Help us to get over this hump. Dow futures, they're getting over it. 409 points. S&P up 36. NASDAQ up 96. Speaking of July 4th, we got a July 4th, Tiger Doll sale going on. Head on over to the front page of TFNN. We double the bonuses, 20, 30 or 40% bonus on whatever you spend. Whether it's 500, 1,000 or 1,500, you can get up to a 40% bonus. 600 Tiger Dolls additional, a 30% bonus, 300 Tiger Dolls additional or a 20% bonus, an extra 100 Tiger Dolls on what you spend. Those Tiger Dolls, good for all newsletters, services, webinars, trading workshops, never expire and good for all that stuff. Check that out on the front page of TFNN. That sale running through this weekend through Monday, July 4th. We run that sale about a couple times a year. All right, jumping around to what else we had going on. So the weekly jobless claims number, I mean, like I mentioned when this number came out folks, we're dealing with basically a stagnant number of 1.4 million that we're going to be losing every single week. That is not good when you compare that the biggest number we ever had pre-COVID was about a weekly initial jobless claim of 700,000. We're now sputtering out at a 1.4 million number continuing and you're going to hear a lot about that weekly, excuse me, the non-farm payroll number. That number for the middle of June, this is such a dynamic situation. The one thing I would say, whatever you're thinking, make sure you're always seeing what's going on because things are changing pretty quickly, whether it's earnings, profits, market action, but right now, strength into the weekend, it looks pretty tough to see a sell-off coming into America's birthday, July 4th. Get out there, be safe, have some fun, de-stress, take a few days away from this crazy market and come back Monday ready for more because the volatility is going to persist even if we get a vixx of 2684 as we look to open Thursday trading, low volatility with the market that just continues to march on. We now get the Dow. Maybe we'll get a presidential tweet, 26,000 in the Dow. That's a weekly occurrence, why not? 26,020 in the Dow futures, 3,144 in the S&P's, 10,373 all-time highs in the NASDAQ. Stay tuned, folks. Harry Pezzavento coming up next with Trade What You See.