 Good afternoon, and I'm delighted to welcome you to this webinar, which is part of the 2020 ESB IIEA lecture series entitled, Rethink Energy, and I'd like to begin by thanking the ESB for their sponsorship of this event and at the Institute here we very much value the collaboration with the ESB in this series. We're delighted to be joined this afternoon by a most accomplished and interesting speaker, Sir Philip Lowe, who's partner in Opsira Consulting and chair of the World Energy Council's Trilema project. I'd like to thank Philip in particular for being so generous with his time to speak with us today. Our guest will speak for about 20-25 minutes and after his presentation we'll go to the Q&A session with you, our audience. You'll be able to join the discussion using that Q&A function there on Zoom, which you should see on your screen and we're all becoming so used to all of this functionality now on Zoom. So please do go in there and send us a question and feel free to send your questions in throughout the session, you know, as they occur to you rather than waiting until the end. So if you've got an insight, if you've got a brainwave question, just pop it in as soon as it occurs to you. And I would ask though that you would identify yourself, your affiliation as well if you have one when you're asking a question. I'd like to remind you that both the presentation and the Q&A session today are on the record. And if you're given to Twitter tweeting, please do tweet in the course of the session and the handle for us is at IIEA. So before we turn to Sir Philip Low, I'd like to welcome Pat Fenlon. Pat is the Executive Director of Group Finance and Commercial at the ESB. I'd like to ask Pat to say a few words. Once Pat is done, he'll introduce our speaker. And Pat will be remaining with us for the Q&A session. And Pat may, you know, be able to contribute or we may like to contribute. I'm sure we'd like him to do that to any questions which have an explicit Irish dimension to today's discussion. So once again, I'm looking forward very much to our guest speaker and also now to Pat Fenlon who will introduce our guest. Thanks, Pat. Thank you, Alex. Good afternoon, everybody. And just on behalf of ESB, just want to welcome you to I suppose what's now the fourth lecture in the Rethinking Energy Series. It's a program that ESB has been proud to be involved with for over a decade now and I hope looking forward to today's address by Sir Philip. I think it's really timely both in relation to COVID-19 and Brexit, particularly in the context of how that will impact on the energy transition, which is a subject very dear to our hearts in ESB. Our brighter future strategy is all about leading the transition to a low carbon energy future. And what that will involve for us is substantial investment in transformative projects that will with the aim of ensuring secure, affordable and sustainable electricity supply for our customers into the future. Brexit, I suppose, like many of you here on the call is something we've been following closely in Ireland in recent years and it's certainly heating up as we know at the moment. ESB has been involved in the UK energy market for over 25 years right across networks in Northern Ireland where we own the NIE business, but also in onshore and offshore investments right across the UK and also in EV charging infrastructure. And so it's a core market for ESB. Regardless of what happens with Brexit, and I know we're all hoping for a sensible transition and an outcome to that process, but regardless of what happens, we will continue to work closely with our counterparts in the UK energy industry to hopefully continue on that transition towards the clean energy future. COVID-19, of course, has had a massive impact on all of us in ESB. We developed our first pandemic plan, a response plan in 2006 following the SARS outbreak and helpfully and might be fortuitously, but I suppose good planning, at least a good look. We carried out a crisis management exercise for a pandemic six months before COVID struck and that did not stand to us when the outbreak happened earlier this year. And the focus in ESB throughout COVID-19 has been ensuring first of all the safety of our employees, our customers and the general public, but also to maintain an essential electricity supply throughout that period. In the first half of 2020, ESB has delivered a solid resilience set of financial results despite COVID-19 and looming Brexit. But maintaining financial strength for ESB is really important to allow us to deliver the investment that's required in the future in both low-carbon generation but also in our electricity networks, which are crucial not just for economic development and supply of electricity, but also for electrification of heat and transport, which is a critical plank of the transition to a low-carbon energy future. We've seen on the international capital markets, debt capital markets, a massive appetite for sustainable investment and pleased to say the ESB was the first Irish company to launch a green bond, a public green bond in 2019. And we see that appetite for such investment continuing. We do remain optimistic despite all the challenges, the climate action bill from the Irish government and also from the Green Deal, I think really sets the course that we're all on to respond to climate change. So without any further ado, I'm looking forward to Philip's address. I think it's timely and anything that helps us understand the context and the challenge better for the energy transition will help us all get there. So without any further ado, look forward to your address and hand over to Philip. Thank you. So Alex and Pat, thank you very much for those introductions and it's a privilege to be speaking at the IAEA in your energy series. I have to say I feel a degree of humility surrounded by people from ESB and Air Grid and SOTY and CRU and others who have contributed to the strategy in Ireland. You know as much, if not more than I do in many areas, but I hope that I can give some kind of strategic view from a European perspective which will be useful to you in the future deliberations which we're having. Of course in all the history of the European Union and Ireland we've always talked about peripherality and I have to say that the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on us all is we seem to be all peripheral because we're all somewhat isolated into our own homes. But I hope that through this type of webinar we can have sufficient interaction to be able to debate the issues as we would have done if we were together. So I'd like to proceed first of all by looking at some of some slides which I've prepared and I've prepared them. I can assure you all with a certain degree of objectivity because I don't represent the Commission anymore even though I was Director General for Energy and for Competition amongst other things and I certainly don't represent the UK. Both institutions probably regard a British European, ex-British European official as somewhat suspect so I think you can guarantee a certain degree of objectivity in the process. If we can move to the first slide I think that as far as energy is concerned in Europe and in the UK there's been a in fact long-standing alignment of UK and EU energy policies to create open integrated and competitive energy markets and there's been a similar alignment on environmental and climate change objectives. But of course as the result of Brexit the UK ceased to be an EU member state on the 31st of January and with the notable exception of the arrangements for Northern Ireland EU law will no longer apply to the UK after the end of the transition period on the 31st of December and in that process from the in terms of the content of the original withdrawal agreement the UK specifically ruled out membership of the EU single market customs union and by the way the ETS. Now the withdrawal agreement also makes it clear that the UK will no longer participate in any EU institution or agencies so even though I'll come back on to that later there are references in the in the political declaration signed between the UK and the EU on energy they don't relate to some agencies such as ASA at all and as far as the transmission of TSOs are concerned they talk about simple dialogue and cooperation so if we move to the next slide we can look a little bit more closely at the content of the declaration and what it has meant so far in terms of negotiation. I think virtually everyone in the whole of Europe and the whole of the world knows that the UK is trying to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU seems to be a rather narrow version of trade cooperation but is also quite a narrow version of what looks what what could be a future EU-UK relationship because an FTA agreement as is envisaged only is limited to removing tariffs and quotas on goods therefore excludes the services sector and excludes agreements on non-tariff barriers which is of course the major problem of regulatory alignment now there is also a commitment on either side to prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages as well as maintaining high regulatory standards but not to regulatory alignment which has led to a degree of distrust and suspicion as to whether the UK intends to in the kind of vocabulary which has been used by UK politicians to break free from regulations at EU level and perhaps adopt a more buccaneering approach to trade and competition vis-a-vis the EU. There's a commitment in the political declaration to cost efficient clean and secure supplies of energy based on competitive markets and access to networks and to facilitate technical cooperation in order to ensure security of supply and encourage sufficient trade through interconnectors but there's clearly no reference to any maintenance or development of shared market rules and network codes and there's a commitment to continued cooperation as I have referred to earlier between systems of TSOs but no mention of cooperation between regulators so if we go on to the next slide we have some positive elements in the protocol which are very important for Ireland and Northern Ireland no hard border in principle protection of the all-island economy and of the energy market respect of the terms of the Good Friday Agreement maintenance of the single all-island electricity market continued application of EU laws and regulations in Northern Ireland in respect of this of this the internal market on the island of Ireland in terms of state aid rules and competition rules and continued North Sea North South cooperation now there's a reference in it also to best endeavors to stimulate trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK single market as you are aware the UK government is now on a unilateral basis trying to strengthen this through its proposed internal market bill which is in principle in contravention with the terms of the protocol and the withdrawal agreement but we wait to see what the outcome of that discussion will be on the next slide we we turn to the the immediate impacts of Brexit on the energy sector short term impacts and perhaps then long-term impacts now unless there is no deal we shouldn't exaggerate that the immediate impacts will be very substantial the UK and the EU energy policies remain largely aligned similarly with climate change policies both both sides have raised the ambitions for CO2 emissions reduction for 2030 and 2050 and the UK has transposed the bulk of existing EU energy international law and thirdly which is obvious the UK remains physically connected in gas and electricity to to EU member states notwithstanding the 1000 megawatts to to Ireland to and from Ireland there's also up to 4000 megawatts of interconnection with other EU countries and given ongoing cooperation between TSOs one would expect that trade will continue to take place and even new in new interconnectors like green line around the construction of course if there is no deal some there's obvious potential for delay and confusion I see that possibly more in in the in terms of gas trading than in electricity but widespread disruption is probably unlikely clearly technical agreements will have to be made and ultimately if there is no deal now the question would then be will there be a deal sometime later so will this be a question of some interim arrangements and the important thing there as as you all know from the experience of European negotiations try and prevent the provisional law from being permanent now on the next slide I've turned to the the longer term impacts and I've referred already to the fact that there's no commitment to regulatory line alignment it's unlikely that the market rules and network codes will continue to to be aligned unless the UK is somehow associated to EU discussions on the design and the adoption that adaptation of energy market rules now one might say is this one-sided I think the fact is that it's a reluctance on both sides EU agencies and committees can invite a third country representative to participate in their discussions but there are plenty of voices within the EU who dislike the idea of the UK choosing the parts of the single market with which it wants to be involved in and not others and obviously if there is divergence on on market rules and network codes this is going to lead to less efficient market functioning less and less competition less liquidity as well on the next slide I think that obviously your focus will be on Ireland itself and its its own security of supply from the end of this year Ireland becomes an energy island in EU terms in principle cut off from the the the rest of networks in the EU and it's logical in that respect that the Celtic interconnector has become a European project of common interests with a direct link between France and Ireland and a commitment of 500 billion from the EU budget for that project but of course we don't expect that to become come on stream until 2025 there is certainly more and more self-sufficiency through renewables but for the moment Ireland is very much linked with the UK market both in electricity and gas there's a UK commitment to North Sea corporation but as you've probably read there's some degree of discord as to whether the UK could stay in that cooperation framework it wasn't if I remember rightly as director general for energy it wasn't an EU body at all in 2010 but since I left certainly North Sea energy cooperation has become co-chair with the commission and it seems that there is debate as to whether the UK could be involved or not well that's connected to the wider debate about UK willingness to participate in EU sponsored initiatives and of course there is also a discussion as to whether local content should issue rules should influence the decisions taken on construction of offshore equipment so on the next slide we turn to further measures well here we go into the realm of perhaps more pragmatism in the way in which we could go forward given the blockage on the on institutional grounds one could expect that there will be some some degree of as Alex has referred to brainwaves or insights as to how future cooperation could be guaranteed whether the SEM despite being now based on EU market rules network codes one could not form some kind of framework in which the UK could take part in that and what would possibly be some form of of coupling of the of the UK market with the EU and with the Irish and the rest of the EU markets energy efficiency will remain a key component of all discussions on security supply supply and certainly in Ireland where it has to think very much about the potential need for backup generation capacity whether as we have seen recently gas fired power plants figure in even a transition scenario is not clear but it may be that they are not a thing of the past at least until 2030 so then we turn to the next slide and we add COVID-19's short-term impacts I think all of you have seen the reports of the IEA on the impact on the energy sector an average 25% decline in demand of 50% decline in oil demand a 50% drop in road transport year on year and inevitably because of the uncertainty associated with COVID fall in investment in energy nevertheless overall energy systems have been resilient during the crisis as and Pat has referred to the situation in Ireland itself globally low carbon sources of energy are overtaking coal as the primary source of energy energy for power generation they have priority access to grids and low operating costs investors are tending to steer away from fossil fuels at the moment taking a longer view than governments gas demand also is also likely to fall in by 5% in this year after 10 years of growth and we've seen in the last in the last expected we expect in 2020 a full in CO2 emissions as I wrote here the time which is six times larger than the the fall resulting from the economic decline after the financial crisis so if we go then to the following slide and take a longer term longer view I've referred to the fact that invest investors are favoring renewables but of course the prices of oil and gas are historically low and using existing fossil fuel power plants is still a viable option in the short term if regulations permit it and oil and gas are also needed in all modes of transport at least until 2030 maybe we can see a displacement of oil by gas in maritime transport in particular and also in commercial transport looking at the long term there's a lot of aspiration around the European Council has highlighted the crucial role of energy in Europe's economic recovery and underlined that the economy needs to become greener more circular more digital building on the European Green Deal that's thankfully a commitment which hopefully all the member states of the European Union will sign up to and it's something which the UK amongst other third countries share as an objective we move to the next slide the crisis obviously has had an effect on consumer behavior and on the location of economic activity we're all experiencing living through the trend towards teleworking to online purchasing as well as delivery to and services in the home and it's fair to say that it's unlikely that people and particularly businesses are going to return to previous working shopping and servicing habits and that may have implications for energy demand patterns and for distribution networks which I'm not qualified to talk about but I'm sure that is being studied by ESB and others the economy is becoming increasingly digital with a consequent increase in demand for electricity for service for example it's becoming increasing the digital with some degree of impact on the market power of major players major high-tech companies and this is a challenge for competition policy globally to what extent with this increasing digitalization we have really any control over the from a public point of view on the behavior of these companies for the time being public transport all modes as well as car sharing don't offer people adequate protection from the virus and one can see the renewed importance of the private car and if anyone can afford it electric vehicles lockdown measures hit poorer people harder than others energy poverty has become an issue again in all our countries we move then to the following slide I just like to refer to what colleagues in the IA have referred to has a ripple effect and draws some preliminary conclusions from the interaction of these various impacts and almost crises on our own lives before Brexit we were already facing the challenges of recovery from the financial crisis and engaging in the energy transition towards the greener economy now while Brexit is happening we have a pandemic which is persisting with no final solution yet in sight one talks of vaccines even as we move forward we don't see an immediate horizon for the for the use of those vaccines and as for Brexit itself this is after all a political and economic crisis of some dimension at least for the UK and also for its immediate neighbors the ones who are most affected in the European Union that is Ireland Belgium the Netherlands France the UK has imposed this because of a democratic vote and successive governments have since the referendum chosen to interpret what that vote meant in terms of perhaps a harder rather than a soft exit from the European Union with with full withdrawal as I referred to earlier from EU institutions, agencies and in principle even any program the EU EU's response has also been to emphasize that participation in the single market has to be total not partial with the acceptance of all the responsibilities as well as the advantages and that can lead to some degree of deadlock in some of the talks which have taken place between the UK and the EU so in the next slide I just go on to to look at what what could be the basis for further progress or resumption of progress and I think the energy market is one example among others where the UK and its European neighbors have the potential to retain and expand the cooperation and links which they already established between each other within the EU but this requires a lot of more mutual trust and confidence and a degree of pragmatism to develop new frameworks which both sides can live with even if they both feel uncomfortable in them and then in the next slide I just recall apart from the benefits which are obvious through a cooperation in energy and market interconnection and integration finding a new framework requires everyone to work together absent institutional preconditions on both sides and that's a major challenge at the moment that being said if you look back at history in Ireland in particular the spirit behind the Good Friday Agreement should in principle inspire everyone to work towards energy solutions which are good for Ireland and Northern Ireland for the United Kingdom and for the European Union I was reminded when addressing this theme before that Patrick Kavanaugh had something interesting to say about the the issues which face us or the challenges which face us in life in his poem epic I have lived in important places times when great events were decided who owned half a root of rock that was the year of the Munich bother which was more important and today we have a combination of the challenge of climate change we have the challenge of a pandemic we have increasing so far lack of support for multilateral action and cooperation and we have Brexit and which of these issues is the most important for the future I think that Ireland has always shown the example it is necessary to build alliances and find common solutions that's the basis of one which European Union has worked to find solutions which can't be achieved by one country on their own now that can always be challenged in individual areas but pragmatically both the UK island and the European Union must look for areas where progress can be made and energy is one of them thank you very much thank you very much for that wonderful presentation for its eloquence and for the assistance of Patrick Kavanaugh in bringing home I suppose the some of the the points that you wanted to make and I think we often do turn to the poets and I think the period we're living in at the moment we're turning to our poets perhaps even more often than we have in the past and that's probably a pretty good thing and so thank you very much for those insights we've got a number of very interesting questions and lining up on the Q&A function and just to remind everybody again that you can use the Q&A function just down in the bottom well in my screen sort of bottom right hand corner ish of your screen and go in there and just send a message just like sending a whatsapp message or a text message and that will come through to us and some of you have been doing that already so I'm going to start off with a couple of quick questions some of which you might like to try and that and but maybe some perhaps might be and from councillor Sarah Riley whether you believe the north south interconnector project will continue and now you might you might want to you might want to change that yourself into whether you think it should continue as opposed to whether you think it will continue but do you have any thoughts about the interconnector well I mean it's one component of an increasingly what should be an increasingly integrated network which will which offers some degree of advantage both in terms of security of supply resilience of systems and is an important component of the links which should be maintained and promoted with with the UK from Scotland to to Northern Ireland from and those from the south of Ireland to the UK and ultimately to France as far as electricity is concerned so I think the this is do I believe that the north south interconnector project will proceed is my answer first of all is that I think it should proceed and that for the reasons I've just emphasised before we have to look at we have to tolerate and work on the issues which separate the UK and and some some of the interest in and I from the the aims of the project and find out and create a framework where it can go ahead I believe that it should go ahead personally I think the studies have shown that it would be a tremendous benefit it's not the only answer to energy problems in on the island of Ireland but it's one important component if I'm not mistaken I think Sarah might well be channeling some and reflecting on some of the some of the controversies let me put it that way on infrastructure that we've had locally so I mean that may be that's obviously the subject of ongoing debate but the the big picture point you've you've addressed and in fact the next question is also about interconnectors more broadly it's from Fergal McNamara who's the chair of the World Energy Council Ireland and I think you may know Fergal I've come across Fergal and as we're known to the here and Fergal says in light of announcements yeah in in light of the announcements of new interconnectors GB to Norway and another one to the Netherlands and GB to Denmark and Iceland how can this be reconciled with the portents of increasing divergence of market rules or just to to a final word to Sarah on the internet interconnector I mean one of the things we tackle very much in the European Commission and we were tackling outsiders as well is making sure that local communities are fully aware of the benefits of any infrastructure improvement and finding a ways in which they can be associated with and the the the project's concerned so it is always going to be a major challenge but it's something which requires a lot of public debate and an open discussion looking at the overall advantages but also taking into account the impacts on local communities now as far as the interconnector interconnectors are concerned I think that after a period of some some hesitation in the early 2000s the UK successive UK governments coalition government and every camera and and liberal democrats but also later have committed themselves to supporting interconnection as an important important contribution to security of supply and to more liquidity and more competitiveness on the UK market and of course if then you are confronted with the institutional challenge and the political challenge of Brexit you have to say well how can you on the one hand want to develop such systems which are interconnected and integrated without common rules now I have argued this myself with many of my compatriots who are whose names are well known in UK politics and they say well we don't want European rules we want international rules and I say well which would you prefer we do you want US rules or Chinese rules or would you like those rules to be perhaps more adapted to to conditions in Europe and the answer is well they there is an institutional blockage on this that's the the idea of European Union being some kind of political organization which is which is taking away the identity and powers of of autonomous countries in Europe something which is very strong in the political flavour of the moment in London and elsewhere but I personally believe that the the practical advantages of these interconnections the fact that they are not just simply with EU EU countries but they're with Norway which is obviously part of the single market and there's also plans for interconnection with Ireland and in the end the practicalities of working out how to manage transmission capacities and manage trade inside on electricity will well dominate ultimately on the over the issue the institutional issues now how long will that take I don't know I just simply believe that in order to recreate the trust and confidence on the UK side at least we have to provide a framework for talking about market rules and and network codes etc which doesn't necessarily have labels which make them that withdraw completely from any discussion thank you another question here from Donald O'Brollacon who's a member of the IIA here any lessons for us from existing EU links with another energy island quote unquote for example Switzerland or Norway and also noting Norway's powerful position as an energy supplier so any lessons from Switzerland Norway I think Alex don't know is is correct to to look at these these comparisons I'm not sure that one could describe Switzerland or Norway really as an energy island because physically they're very much interconnected with the with the European market whether they're and of course Norway as part of the single market is is is very much in it whereas Switzerland isn't what can we learn from Switzerland well the first thing to say is that Switzerland has the main has the same sort of institutional issues with the EU as the UK although perhaps a smaller scale and a different location geographical location which is right in the middle of Europe and what has Switzerland been trying to do since it has rejected EU membership and rejected EU single market membership it has tried to negotiate sexual agreements with the European Union and a large number of areas I think there are all already over a hundred agreements between the EU and Switzerland and frankly the EU has been increasingly I say EU the other member state that the EU member states have been increasingly impatient about this that Switzerland seems to want to do a certain number of things with the European Union but is not really prepared to accept the common rules of for example competition policy and of state aid and so there is now increasing reluctance from the EU to go go into more agreements with them the the EU with Switzerland even though it would make eminent sense for it on practical grounds for it to do so now it may be that if you look at it in the future 10 or 15 years time it may be that the combination of UK and Swiss pressure to reach agreements on interconnection and on trading across the European markets will result in some degree of a great greater degree of pragmatism on the EU side but it would also probably imply that on the Swiss and UK side they have to accept some some institutions some agencies regulation regulation or on transmission system operation which are supranational which is of course the thing which they are not that the UK side is is not keen on for the moment now as far as Norway is concerned I think there is a direct lesson to be learned in terms of how Ireland and the UK and other EU countries could cooperate together in achieving some degree of market integration without without it being necessarily in an EU framework and that's the development of the Nordic electricity market which is now more and more integrated into the EU system but at the beginning was began with cooperation and trading between between the Scandinavian countries and I think there there's an opportunity for for people in the UK Ireland and elsewhere to to talk to for those talk to those in Finland in Norway and Sweden and and discuss how how that cooperation began and how it could be a useful model for future cooperation until we get some larger wider solution actually I could have combined the following question with Donald O'Brollacan's question because it comes from John O'Hagan Professor of Economics in Trinity and Trinity College and he was asking is there any other non-EU state with a similar interdependence in terms of energy supply with the UK with the EU as has the UK and he was just wondering what could the could similar arrangements be applied now you reflect on some of those points already I think I've reflected on course here from that I think because because once self-criticism of of the the EU under EU member states which it ought sometimes to be asking itself or member states of the EU as a whole is to have an agreement with another country outside the EU which doesn't necessarily mean that they have to conform to EU rules there is a general assumption of I wouldn't say regulatory imperialism but it's something like that which it which comes which derives from this the the depth and strength of the discussion between EU governments and between national administrations if we've reached if we have reached or I say we EU countries have reached an agreement between themselves between 27 member states they're not particularly keen on adapting the rules for a for a third country because they've already reached a very very difficult compromise between them and so there are countries outside the European Union who who would very much like to have energy relations with the European Union but they are basically at the moment in the category of countries which are regarded as potential accession countries or association countries are talking of the south-eastern Europe in Bosnia and Serbia as well as of course the Ukraine and if you look at what the EU has done with respect to those countries in the energy area it's it's created a sponsor the energy community which comprises the EU member states and accession countries basically and it encourages them to adopt EU energy market rules and the same is true of the association agreement with Ukraine so that's another category of countries beyond Norway and Switzerland and Iceland by the way which could be which is an example as a model but it's a model which is unlikely to be very attractive to the UK's and the Switzerland okay I've got two questions about gas and first of all David Kelly of Aravilla which includes gas networks Ireland and David says that you've referred to gas being necessary for the interim how long is this interim in your view and what technology will replace gas and the second question is from John Drynen of Electric Ireland should Ireland reconsider the planned LNG terminal in the Shannon estuary for security of supply reasons so two questions and how long is the interim and what will replace it and then the LNG uh proposal I don't know you presume I'm sure you're you're familiar with the the the Shannon LNG terminal proposal but yeah I've had more difficulty with the second question because it's in the end it's a commercial question and one would have to make a clear assessment of the short and well the the risks and advantages I by the way the more integration if I can answer that question first the more integrated gas networks are in Europe and the more therefore the more competitive is the price of gas in Europe and not simply um price of pipeline gas in Europe not simply determined by take or pay contracts with the the two or three major suppliers around Europe the less attractive is LNG because if there's good if there's there are flexible long time contracts and a good secondary market in gas then generally speaking pipeline gas into the uh European networks should be um uh competitive vis-a-vis LNG but of course LNG uh LNG is an alternative which is an investment to be made particularly when you think of uh possible disruptions of supplies and um that means and although LNG terminals have historically had very low utilization rates and they have nevertheless from time to time has served their purpose in uh dissuading um those uh major producers who felt that they can possibly increase prices and exploit markets simply because there's no alternative um and frankly the LNG market at the moment is seems to be fairly liquid um it the gap between the price of natural of pipeline gas and LNG is is certainly a lot narrower than 10 years ago um uh to be cautious about gas providing the answer the first question which is how how long will we need natural gas um one one should go ahead with the project uh to be cautious now then but then look at the the potential for gas in the future what what are the what are the what is the major debate in Europe about gas um um is it viable to still invest in gas uh now we are in 2020 we have very significant uh COT emissions objectives for 2030 and 2050 um does it make sense to put uh any more money into gas-fired power stations um well you could start the kind of discussion which is being being debated in the Netherlands and uh Germany why don't we try to diversify the types of um the sources of energy which are being used in gas infrastructure particularly the use of hydrogen either blue or or or green um um trying to in fact um move away from fossil fuel of of the CO2 rich gas to less CO2 emitting gases um but recognizing that in the at least in the next 10 years it gas will will be needed whether for heating or for industrial purposes and then there's the issues to whether gas hasn't there aren't new uses for gas such a such as I've referred to in maritime transport and commercial transport and here again there may be a link between um um the second question about LNG and the first question if there are new there are new new markets for gas um uh it particularly maritime is it um isn't it better to import LNG for the for those purposes and use it there frankly Alex I'm not replied very clearly to either of those questions because they're very I think they're quite difficult I think that that what we previously thought was a fairly clear situation for gas for gas over the next 10 to 15 years has become um less certain picture because of the revised CO2 targets um uh that being said there must be some it got some new thinking about how to use the extensive gas infrastructure in Europe which is there and which is an advantage and therefore the biogas hydrogen are among the alternatives we should look for and on the issue of Shannon I have to say I couldn't express a clear view but I would to be cautious would be hedging bets and not abandoning something which could be used for later on yeah no that's understood we we've got a couple of other questions on on on on gas gas and hydrogen but we're coming up on two o'clock and I do have just one other question here which I'll also ask Pat to come in on if I think Pat is still with us and it's from Ken Spratt Senior Civil Servant here in Dublin and I work very closely with with Ken when I was Minister for Energy myself so and Ken is a real a real leader and huge knowledge of this field as well but he also very nicely brings back in the poetic illusion from from from earlier from Kavana and Ken points out that Kavana finished that poem epic by mentioning Homer's ghost quote I made the Iliad from such a local row unquote is the line we all remember and the question is and as I said Pat by all means perhaps Pat might come in on this first and we are coming up on two so we're a bit tight for time the question is is there an Iliad in this for Ireland perhaps harnessing from offshore wind Ken wonders do you like to handle that Pat? Sure I think offshore winds there is a massive opportunity and offshore we all know we all know what the wind is like on the island and what it's like off the island and we are coming from behind in terms of harnessing offshore wind and the police to see the government are taking steps to accelerate you know the MAFA bill and and the minister Ryan is on record has been very strongly promoting the take up the offshore wind industry and of course ESB would be a participant in that hopefully and but it is a massive opportunity and I think it does come back to earlier questions as well about interconnection because what we need more renewables you know better system services and better interconnection for for all of this to hang together but there is definitely an opportunity in this transition for Ireland given the the huge quantum of wind resources that we have so absolutely no conscious of time maybe about her at Philip coming on that one as well. Yeah I mean as far as I understand it Ireland is already during the night a net exporter of electricity to the UK because of our shorewind because of onshore and onshore when they're both but particularly onshore and that's that's a potential which should be exploited clearly although I mean the reality is that once you're in an integrated competitive market is it correct always to refer to to to export opportunities and import opportunities as if national borders actually define the markets which sometimes they don't I think what's being defined is really where the look what where where are generating plants or where is sources of energy located and what opportunities are there to to sell their product their product in the rest of the EU or elsewhere and I think prospects are good referred instantly to that the debate about local content you to what extent new installations have to be supplied manufactured locally. Ireland still remains in a very strong position vis-a-vis the UK because of meteorological conditions and sea conditions to to be able to exploit the market there as well as as well as frankly with France but I'm not sure that I just want to answer one question which I see on screen which is you know can can gas part generating stations be run from gas ship by sea? Yes they can there's no reason why they you can't use LNG for for for electricity generation Lithuania has done it with its own LNG plant LNG therefore is a source of as it represents our services supply both to for all forms of energy but of course you've got to look at the economics of transforming LNG into electricity which may or may not be as competitive as in the present circumstances for example as to to using renewables. Thank you just before we wrap up just to remind you remind people that the next event that the Institute will host covering the issue of offshore wind and so that's timely for people and interesting for people it's with Ala Weinstein of Trident Winds and that event is on Friday the 20th of November it's not the next event of the IEA it was the next relevant event to offshore wind on Friday the 20th of November at 2 p.m so it only remains for me to thank warmly thanks Sir Philip Low for his presentation this afternoon for his answering and addressing of questions including those that I put to him and those that he had the flexibility and dexterity to see himself on the screen so I want to thank him for you know giving us the benefit of his immensely wide knowledge and experience and insight it's been not only very informative for giving us I think a lot to think about and reflect on I want to thank thank you again Pat Fennon and the ESP and note again the importance of the collaboration that we have that the IEA has with the ESP on this series so it's been an extremely informative and interesting experience at this afternoon a number of phrases always stick with me after these occasions and one is where in the course of your presentation towards the end you were talking about the importance or the desirability of countries working together absent institutional preconditioning preconditions which covers really quite a multitude when you're when one observes what's happening at the moment in terms of what the you know what the possibility about the options what the chances for cooperation will be post-Brexit as elsewhere so thank you once again Sir Philip Lowe for your presence this afternoon and thank you all for your attendance and there we will finish for today