 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 24th of October, starting in the US. Lots of important numbers out next week in the US, but none are likely to change the market's forecast for a 75 basis point interest rate hike on the 2nd of November. Third quarter GDP is likely to show positive growth after the technical recession experience in the first half of the year. Those two consecutive quarters of negative growth were primarily caused by volatility in trade and inventories, which should both contribute positively to the third quarter data. The consumer spending is under pressure, but while residential investment will be a drag on growth, markets are looking for a 1.7% annualised rate of GDP growth. We will also get the Fed's favoured measure of inflation, the core personal consumer expenditure deflator. This is expected to broadly match what happened to core CPI, so markets are looking for an annual rate to rise to about 5.2% from 4.9%, with the economy growing and inflation heading in the wrong direction, the Fed cannot afford to start slowing rate hikes just yet. Also, look out for durable goods orders, Boeing had a decent month, so there should be a rise in the headline rate, although extra transportation orders will likely be softer. We should also pay close attention to consumer confidence and house prices. The surge in mortgage rates and collapse in mortgage applications for home purchases has resulted in falling home sales, with housing supply also on the rise. Markets expect to see prices fall for a second month in a row. Over the longer term, this should help to get broader inflation measures lower given the relationship with the rental components that go into CPI. Moving to charts from a technical perspective, two key levels I'm watching as we head into this week, 1.11.50. If we can get a breakthrough there, I'm looking for a grind to the downside to retest the prior swing lows here, rain sport just above 1.10. If we can get through there, we're looking for this equality objective versus the biggest swing structure here in that 1.13.80 high. It gives us a downside target of 1.09.10. At this stage, any close back through that 1.14 handle would be a bullish development and invalidate this bearish setup. Then we'll be looking for retest the prior cycle highs 1.14.70 on route to an ideal 1.15.40. Moving to the Eurozone, and really focused this week is going to be on the ECB, who hotly anticipated their 75 basis points rate hike. The Hawks have clearly convinced the few doves left of the necessities to go big on rate hikes. Contrary to the run up to the July and September meetings, there hasn't been any publicly debated controversy on the size of the rate hikes. In fact, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde seems to have succeeded in disciplining a sometimes very heterogeneously vocal membership there. To this end, it's hard to see how the ECB cannot move again by 75 basis points at this week's meeting. As the 75 basis point hike looks like a done deal, all eyes also will be on the other open issues, which are excess liquidity, quantitative tightening, and the terminal interest rate. Size the ECB, which will be the key focal point for Eurozone traders, will also be looking at survey gauges of the economy next week. The PMIs on Monday will be critical to determine whether the Eurozone economy has lived further into contraction or whether an uptick has occurred. There is not much evidence of this, though, but Monday will provide more clarity on how the Eurozone economy is performing as of October. So from a technical perspective, the Eurodollar obviously trading pretty much inverse to the dollar index. So looking for the Eurodollar hours, we take out this triangle resistance. Look at some follow-through here earlier in the week. Back through that 99 handle, should set up a new vent to test the prior swing highs there just below parity. And as long as pullbacks remain supportive, then we're going to be looking for an upside extension into our equality objective, which is 1-0-0-90. At this stage, any close back through 96-30 will be bearish developments, opening up further downsides to retest prior cycle lows down to 95-30s and then on towards the 94 handle below there. And moving to the UK, obviously, political massimations continue to be the focus there. The ruling Conservative party has said it will fast-track plans to get a new leader in place by this Friday and potentially even by Monday, if only one candidate makes it through the MP selection round. Candidates have until Monday at 2pm to clear the hurdle of 100 MP nominations to make it onto the ballot paper before Conservative MPs vote on the outcome. Now, importantly, at this stage, what we know as of Sunday is that Rishi Sunak is the only confirmed candidate to have exceeded that 100 level. There is rumour bounding that Boris Johnson also has the 100 MP nominations required to make it onto the ballot. Penny Morgan, the other candidate, the other confirmed candidate, only has about 23 votes at this stage. So unless there's going to be a late search for her, it looks likely to potentially be between Johnson and Sunak. But if Johnson cannot deliver those 100 MPs, then we could be looking at Prime Minister Sunak being anointed at some point tomorrow. Importantly though, there's only a week to go until the medium-term fiscal plan. It's usually delivered on 31st of October. There's inevitably a question of whether this is enough time for a Prime Minister to rubber-stamp Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's plan for debt sustainability. Traders are probably rightly assuming that Hunt will remain in position under a new leader, but the bigger question is whether the Conservative party can unite behind a new leader and whether a more stable political backdrop can actually emerge, because if it can't, then not only is there a surrogacy surrounding future budget plans, but also whether we would be moving closer to an election in the UK. From a technical perspective, in terms of sterling, whilst we hold this swing low here at the 10920s, I'm actually looking for an upside extension. Take us back through resistance here, 1.1435, on then to grind it out to the upside into that 1.27 extension at 1.1816. Ultimately, the upside objective versus the swing structure here and the swing low at that 10920 gives us a 1.20 upside objective. At this stage, any close back through 10870 will be a bearish development, opening downside targets 106.93 and then to a 105.30s. Moving to Japan and in terms of data, we have a release on Monday of the services and manufacturing PMIs, last time out 52.2 and 50.8 respectively. Services supported by looser COVID-19 restrictions, but manufacturing really does remain in a fragile state. Then the focus is going to move to the back end of the week on Friday when we will get the BOJ meeting. The markets don't expect policy changes at this week's meeting. However, the odds of a shift on the yield curve control are on the rise and recent developments support this, but a rise in the corridor will occur into March. BOJ's core inflation, ex-fresh food and energy jumped to 1% on an annual basis in September, while momentum in wage inflation is also building. The trade union confederation is requesting a 3% increase in base wages for next spring in terms of wage negotiation, the highest in almost 30 years. However, market pressure on the BOJ has also intensified and we did see another round of intervention late on Friday. From a technical perspective, it's interesting to note that the intervention that we saw on Friday, if we looked at the last period of intervention, it pretty much matched it in scope and scale in terms of the price reaction. If we don't get any early follow through into agent trade through that 146 handle, I could actually see us grinding it back out here in the market, pressuring the BOJ again, similar setup to what we saw here. So I've been looking to move back up into that 150, 150, 151 area and then we'll see if the BOJ acts again. At this stage, it will really take a break through 145.90 with some downside acceleration and early agent trade set up and moved to test monthly projected range support and the pivot there 143. And in terms of data rallying things out down under in Australia, Monday, RBA assistant governor Ken speaks at a global markets conference in Sydney. Then Tuesday, the federal budget is released for 2022, fiscal year 2023. Last time the budget deficit was $31.9 billion. Looking markets anticipating the potential for a negative 45 billion as the deficit widens on expenses. Then heading into Wednesday, under inflation data, CPIs year over year, trim green year over year, looking 5.5, 7% respectively, food dwellings, electricity and domestic holidays all driving headline inflation higher. There is significant uncertainty regarding the impact of the electricity rebates and markets expect that they will be significant holding the increase to just 1.1%. Then heading into Thursday, export price index. Last time out was a positive 10.1% print. But there was a whisper number in the market here that we could see a negative 7% print as commodity prices have really come down from highs on global growth fears. And then we round out the week with Q3 PPI on Friday, 1.4% last time out. And really markets going to be focused on the impact of construction costs into that number. And so from a technical perspective, Aussie Dollar traded to the target zone of that $63.90 on Friday. So what I'll be watching for now in terms of the bullish case is if we can maintain prices above the high volume load here, $62.60, $62.70. I look for further upside extension initial target on a move through $63.90 will give us $64.50 and then on to the $1.6.1 extension at $6.508. At this stage, any loss of the $62.10 level on a closing basis with bearish development, hoping we'll move back down into Tesla's $61.60. And then I would guess $61 would become the downside magnet. But for now, focus on the upside looking for a grind here into the $65.00 handle. And let's just check in with Bitcoin to get that weekend risk barometer pulse here. Still trading within the triangle here Bitcoin. And so we have resistance $19,300 and support coming in $18,850 till we get a sustained break in the triangle at this stage. Personally, I can see it's trading up into the resistance area $19,930 of an upside break. However, if we take out the $18,800 on the downside, we're then looking at $18,690 and then into range support down to $18,195. And as I'm sure you're all aware by this stage for the regular watches of this analysis, $12,185 is that downside equality objective. Okay, traders, that wraps up the weekly market outlook for week commencing 24th of October. As always, traders, plan the trade, trade the planner most importantly. Now it's your risk until next week. Thanks very much.