 Very very good morning guys. It is Wednesday the 25th of March. I hope you're doing well I'm just gonna have a look at this to start with. This is a heat map of the S&P 500 So rather than always be here every morning telling you about the doom and gloom I thought I'd bring you a bit of green and a bit of positivity On this Wednesday morning. So as you can see here quite a spectacular move really yesterday and as we'll look in the Dow In you know, we're talking about a nearly a hundred year biggest move that we've seen in that in stock index So yesterday, obviously Apple you know gains of 10% and I was looking at some of the energy majors Chevron's shares were up 23% Microsoft nearly 10% so yeah quite incredible moves and when we look over at the The lights of the Dow the Dow actually gained from a points perspective yet over 2100 points and that would have been again in excess of 11% the biggest since 1933 As you can see here this this access on the bottom going all the way back to that that data point of when we were I guess that The depths of the the Great Depression and the the ensuing volatility that we saw there And you can see despite the the 1987 kind of crash that we had on Black Monday Exing that out. You can see we're right on the extremities of the overall outlying Areas of volatility that we've had most recently as a statistic the Dow has swung an average of 7% since the 12th of March. I mean, it's quite phenomenal The level of volatility that we have had but overall I would say what has been quite apparent over the last Day or two is the violent nature of the blips and the swings sure there was a little pop when the Fed made that new Kind of policy announcement two days ago But otherwise I think from comparative to The say two weeks ago a week and a half ago when it was really flying around I think things have calmed slightly so perhaps this combination then of what central banks have done and it's kind of Whatever it takes coordination with the governments Paying some dividend you could say but certainly that was the key story underlying We'll talk about that more the US fiscal package that's said to be over the line now And that's going to be key as well because it's a it's a real quite unprecedented unprecedented in terms of the size of the deal and This is one of the things I was looking at This was you know if you want to take a look at this This is just a statistics Pulled from whenever the Dow has gained More than 10% what happens next? You know this is a common question that you know if you're looking at the stats in history It's quite interesting to look back at you know the other times we've had these types of moves I mean obviously 2008 as much as it was Decisive more moves to the downside the word days when there was big snapbacks higher and there was two of those occasions in October of 2008 Otherwise most of these are based in the 1930s and obviously just following the the crash that we had in 87 There was a day bouncing back plus 10% But you can see here the average returns one month later after a kind of a 10% plus move in the Dow Typically is around a 3% loss over three months four and a half percent over six months 7.87% it's not until two years later. We're actually higher so Obviously when you look at these types of things, I mean for me I mean this guy is great Ryan Dietrich. I think he works for LPL financial in America If I did reshare or retweet this that he posted last night So if you just go on my Twitter account, you'll be able to find it just search for my name but here You got to put this type of thing into context obviously what the market was like the market dynamics The kind of underlying structure of the market the context of the monetary policy and play at that point the valuation In terms of the overall stock market as a whole there's a lot of considerations here So I don't blindly think well look I bearish because this the stats tell me that the market generally goes down in the period Thereafter and you can't be that simplistic, but it certainly helps I think add a bit of a layer of context is generally to your overall broader kind of thinking You know why has the market rallyed like it has well, this is the big one of course that people are looking at This is the Trump administration They've struck a deal with the Senate Democrats and Republicans and a historical package We're talking you know more than two trillion dollars in size. So this is one of those things where I think Sam did a great It's kind of montage Video tweet about Trump and it only goes back about four or five weeks and it was Trump saying this virus is nothing It's fake news and then he kind of ramps it up and he's gradually gone to where he is at the moment And you know one of the things here was this idea that they start with a kind of relative small package It then went up to one point two trillion you remember when I was doing the briefing I think it was only Friday and now we're talking in the excessive two trillion And this is one of the things that we've been point pointing out here amplifiers This idea that you know did these governments will continue to add to this number and it's not it's not I don't think going to be that unusual But certainly the market seeing you could argue a bit of a meaningful response down the fact This is going to go through is looking most likely I got some details here just to break it down an additional level So you know what you're dealing with the plan includes 500 billion dollar chunk that could be used to back loans and other aid to businesses Checks of $1,200 to most Americans most Americans more than 350 billion for small businesses to maintain their payrolls More expensive unemployment insurance deferrals of taxes and numerous other provisions according to those familiar with the with the details So if anything it kind of mimics very similar in a sense to what the UK We're doing and probably in a proportionate sense from a size perspective The same kind of firepower is being unveiled at this point and this is what's you know, so keys coordinated global effort To give you again bit of context in the I think it was five months after The financial crisis hit in 2008 President Barack Obama at the time did an 800 billion dollar Stimulus package what Trump's talking about now is in excess of two trillion dollars. So it's just to put that Again side-by-side the Trump package is you know huge in that sense One thing that Trump has been saying is he's been talking about Trump starts national debate on when to reopen the economy now the president faces a pushback He says he wants to have the US fully open for business by Easter now Easter is the 12th of April is that right? But it's not that far off. I mean we're talking about three weeks and I'm gonna say it now. I think there's absolutely No way the US will be fully opened by Easter. I feel pretty confident with making that statement I was just having a look at the coronavirus kind of live tracker And specifically locking in on the US So as you can see here It really is picking up traction now here in America and particularly on the The areas of which we know it's kind of Washington State in the North West so Seattle and then the state of Oregon California and San Fran and then look at the East Coast in New York in specifically. So I think there is no way He's gonna be able to fully reopen America in April I think he's probably off the mark from a time perspective at least three months Probably for full reopening like what we're seeing tentatively in Wuhan in Hubei province in China on the 8th of April So for me this the lockdown measures things like what we've seen in other more popular cities like in New York In LA for example, what we've seen now deployed in London and of course in mainland Europe I think the only way for the US to go now is getting more Onerous measures put into place not the other way round And that that's not going to be the short-term measure either I don't think hence the reason why you're getting these monster kind of packages coming in on the Spending side to support the economy in addition to the Fed as well as we saw doing everything that they can possibly do so Guess the big question then Before I get on to the charts and talk about the big question being where the stocks go next You know, this was one of the other things this is the FT's live tracker of the trajectory of the different rates of which deaths tolls in certain cities are In regards to that's doubling every day every two days three days every week This is a graphic we've looked at before but the one that's actually moved where the curve has gone that way And the curve getting steeper generally is a negative Right that means that the death rate is becoming accelerated and what you can see here is New York Now New York has gone from pretty much a kind of mid Level in terms of comparative to other areas to now one of the sharpest increases almost Deaths doubling every single day now That in addition to Madrid having followed a similar path But New York and Madrid could pass Lombardia is the worst affected Subnational regions now and that was obviously that first initial breakout that we saw in mainland Europe Where the Italian numbers if you go back on here on the left-hand side are still extra ordinarily high You know, some people look at the demographics of Italy generally quite an older population they have co-generational Habitation which is very different in terms of family units living together You know older grandmas living with young children and so on and that of course increases the risk and further spreading So Italy is a little unique in that sense, but you know, I think New York is Quite a worrying one here. I mean London still numbers are increasing But at a less rapid pace at this point side and point being I think Trump is doing what Trump does He's kind of trying to spin positive lights on this He's going to say that he brought Congress together for this this package to bad out America And as we're going to see at the moment, he's also trying to manage this ongoing tension with China As well, which is fairly precarious at this point in time With that in mind, let's just quickly jump over to China This was something the FT this morning And I'm not saying that this is moving markets But it definitely helps to supplement this kind of global action that's taking place at the moment This is China's central bank is considering deposit rate cut Now what they're saying is a reduction could come in the coming days according to those familiar with the matter in the FT lowing lowering rates on a hundred and seventy five trillion yuan that quakes to around twenty five trillion US dollars of household and corporate savings with boost bank margins and free up capacity for lenders Who are feeling the pressure generally from the the rising of bad debt that they've been seeing given the pressure that they've been under So to put this in a bit of context, this is what the benchmark interest rate for saving deposit looks like At the bottom and the old benchmark rate for loans is in the blue But you can see the last time we saw a real cutting action from the PBOC So remember when we've seen the Chinese central bank cut rates before it's the reserve requirement ratio So now we're talking more specifically about other measures So the benchmark deposit rate which would be slightly different now This is kind of their main core rates if you like and here 2014 2015 you remember This is when you know oil prices saw that quite catastrophic downward move The whole global economy we saw that was one of the memorable moments when we were hitting limit down in US Indices back in that period because of the fears of a Chinese hard landing So that's when they took multiple steps to lower rates quite aggressively and I haven't really done that at all Since then so if they do cut rates in the coming days as is now broadly expected It's gonna be the first time that they've done that since 2015 So again further measures that they're looking to deploy at this point the other thing that they're saying here was talking about The White House's top trade adviser Navarro. He was talking quoted in the the press this morning Was set to be considering a three-month deferral of tariff payments on imported goods to ease the pain if the economic shut down caused by the pandemic now He has since come out and basically denied this How so as what it's saying he's denying it these press reports But more often than not there's no smoke without fire and probably this is up for discussion Interestingly in combination with this Trump came out yesterday, and he said he's no longer going to call it a Chinese virus He's not been as forthcoming saying he was wrong. He was saying well, that's what it is It did come from there, but I'm not going to use that word anymore And he was tweeting yesterday saying about how he supports American born Chinese and so on so He's definitely you know, this is one of the things it's kind of like the Easter promise that he makes He says something and then he flips it and you know the problem that you have is this kind of boy who cried wolf Means that it's a two-fold thing one a positive he can change then and pivot his view and People can deal with that because it's quite normal But the other thing is is that if he keeps doing it again and again and again When does it come to a point where people just don't believe what he's saying anymore? The problem you have I guess with the latter is he is delivering the Fed of cut rates to zero and The the US Congress has now signed off in a north of two trillion dollar package now again I'm not here to sound like I'm some sort of Trump fanatic, but just thinking through the the way that this is evolving I think it's one of those where you know, he kind of muddles his way through but relatively unscathed in in some senses So yeah, I mean that's that's pretty much getting you up to date with the main headlines for today One thing that you probably would have noticed earlier this morning is that the UK data I've just got the Calendar here UK data has already come out now. Obviously data normally comes out at 9 30 I've been on the phone and I've already called the guys at new squawk to ask them the analyst desk About what the deal is with this and they said that it is a permanent feature I'm not sure if that myself so we'll need to qualify that statement But UK data obviously is normally 9 30. I can understand logic probably if they did move it to 7 a.m.. Just looking to avert probably an excessive market volatility perhaps when everyone's in the marketplace dropping in earlier pre kind of generally round market open Perhaps that's the strategy there But here we had the inflation metrics coming out the UK And it came in at year-on-year 1.7% in line the month-to-month point for above the expected point three The core reading on the CPI came in at 1.7 above expected one five and point six I was expected point four on the month-to-month core again. These are February reading So quite frankly if you look at the sterling chart It hasn't even blinked and quite rightly so this is backward-looking data And I really don't think it carries any significance at all Because also we know the stance of the Bank of England as well and they're thinking very much so about the future This is all backward-looking data. So that has come out early some of the other things they were talking about Analysts when I was saying this morning about why this might have come out early is O&S leak And so they wanted to just get it out there before potentially then it does start to circulate that has I have seen that before over the years If they're aware of this for whatever reason they can just Bring forward the actual release time and the other thing is that they've apparently just removed the lock up now You'll probably would have read in the press. There was a lot of issues about unauthorized accredited news agencies getting access to certain feeds at the central bank and so on so perhaps they're going through a bit of a Restructuring process and might make sense because now Andrew Bailey's there Carney is left and maybe a review of these processes But overall I wouldn't read too much into it net net doesn't really matter this data today for any sterling strategies that you're thinking of Here then what else have we got we got the German ifo business climate Obviously going to be quite interesting. We're looking for a meaningful shift to the downside as you would expect given that this is Companies on the ground level in Germany what they think about current and future expectations They're going to have deteriorated quite substantially as you would imagine yesterday. We had the US manufacturing service Numbers coming out for March and they were that they fell the most on record This is something being felt as well across the Eurozone of which we saw in those flash readings and so if Business sentiment is going to be depressed in in Europe or in Germany in this case I don't think that's again too much of a surprise to be quite frank Otherwise we've got the war in the trees bit later They'll be coming out at two-thirds. You remember the UK clocks don't change till this afternoon If you ever did want to see what those API numbers were I can just bring them up for you now just so we can see it together Zero hedge is actually the best place zero hedge if you're not familiar with the markets is kind of a quite an influence blog site Where it gets a lot of traffic day-to-day especially from intraday traders They tend to be a little bit sensationalist, but they do put out some some decent stats and bank commentary and so on which can be quite useful So here's the numbers from last night Just so I can share them with you. You had a crew drawdown of one and a quarter million Let's bring them up here. That was against expectations of two and a half million Cushing was a bill of a million gasoline a draw two point six million broadly in line to still it's a draw of 1.9 million broadly in line so Let's have a look at the actual charts then and talk through a few things for one oil Here you can see Goes back to around when the data came out no real way too much in a way of response as you would expect I mean from the oil market There's so much other things going on at the moment in regards to the ongoing price battle between Saudi and Russia Obviously the growth implications from the pandemic. I still feel I still feel fairly bearish with crude to be quite frank I know we've had a Decent rally over the last two days or so coming off and that lower bound test of close to 20 bucks where we got to the That point on the 18th We kind of retested it right at the beginning of the week at the reopening of trade But ever since then we've kind of managed to claw back some losses But we've come up to this this area now here of the high that we had Yesterday we've retested that in the Asia Pacific session that has held I think that's a decent level of resistance to keep an arm for today's session You can see the R1 in the futures resides just above that point So if anything I'd still be looking to play that market back down today if I was having a kind of a directional bias for the equity markets Gonna have a look at the S&P and also We'll have a look at the dowel and then and the nose that now the S&P here has seen Decent rise this this ellipse here You can see with that big green candle that was when the Fed Conducted that surprise announcement on Monday at the beginning of the week We then reversed that but ever since that point came back to retest the overnight Weekly low before then moving higher. We've kind of respected here this trend line on a couple of occasions Just being here and here for the for the move higher I was also looking at this trend line here, but it's already really gone through that this morning See our response here as it's pulled off those initial highs So you can see as we broke higher through that trend line initial push up to yesterday's high point And then we've had a bit of an about turn here a lot of people asking me about, you know This whole dead cat bounce. It's come up quite quite aggressively decent move particularly on a daylight yesterday Whenever you do get a 10-11% day Generally speaking that does make me feel like the market is fairly susceptible for a bit of a pullback if I'm quite honest because the nature of the unless there's a new fundamental catalyst to just bump us up again which there hasn't been because the News what we've been talking about is all things from yesterday that created that initial price movement I do think perhaps a little bit of a pullback Could be warranted at this point if we did get that then perhaps if we come back down There's a couple of different areas that I'd Generally be looking at But really the lower bound level I think as a as a target here I should remove this would be around here really so if we come back down perhaps This level that high that we had on Monday in the afternoon You can see we respected it a couple times before and if it comes in around the trend line on the timing That could be somewhere to keep an eye on so if I just put a rectangle kind of looking around this area Or if we push further down here to encapsulate that initial fed spike high And the bounce off that trend line that we had in the overnight Asia Pacific session just having a look Elsewhere at some of the other Stock indices. Let's get the get the Dow into play. I think there's some key levels here as well So to keep an eye on if you're looking Looking on a slightly longer time frame here on the 120 candlestick So you can see a similar thing. It's had a bit of a breakout Just a short while ago as we've got above the overnight high and yesterday's high And so that pushed us up to the high that we have in the 17th But again, it's kind of similar you got that 17th high The R1 sat just above and if we look at the NASDAQ hasn't yet really had a concrete break of that same kind of set up slightly different in a sense that is holding for the moment but given the fact now the S&P and the Dow have turned slightly I expect that to hold for the moment But certainly it's going to be more meaningful to watch when we get into the North American session a few hours time Cable just a quick look We've been moving higher fairly aggressively ever since the Fed made that announcement Obviously the dollar got hit on the back of the extraordinary Lengths that the Fed are going to to to promote and support all levels of business really and As we've gone higher cable has been continuing to just claw back some of these Levels of which have been in focus ever since really the just move this up This tells the story of cable over the last Three four years really and this incorporating then the EU referendum level and as we come back up I mean we're trading still about 170 pips away from it at the moment But given the daily ranges that we trade at the moment obviously the big upside resistance level will be the 120 That was the key level that really gave way about a week ago or so and led to this big run down that we had quite quickly remember it was the levels we've traded since 1985 when we've got down to these lows and that big day came a multiple point move And so we're seeing just a bit of a bounce and I'd say perhaps it can continue But would be expecting whether today or in the coming days this week for the market to find some resistance up and around that level all right That is it for the time being a couple of final points if you are watching this and you've got this far in the briefing then obviously please do Follow us on YouTube just hit the subscribe button click the notification bell to get the alerts for every day when we go And we deliver these these broadcasts And then do check out the website amplify trading comm if you're interested in finding out more about what we do Whether on the trading arm or if you're a student and you're looking for further For the kind of training to develop your your prospects for your career. All right, that's it guys Have a good day, and I'll see you tomorrow