 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me Dave Madden. Today's date is Monday the 19th of August 2019 and the time has just gone 1155 British summer time This week we've seen a fairly positive start to the to the European session has been a few things going on that there is talk and speculation that Germany will Pursue a stimulus package of 50 billion euros should they see face should should the should the German economy continue to go ahead down the the poor growth route that we've seen recently the German finance minister is talking about potentially having a serious package of up to 50 billion euros Now admittedly given the size of Germany's economy 50 billion euros isn't a whole lot of money to stimulate economy But the fact remains that that even even that the German politicians are discussing this as an option really got to show how serious they're taking the situation and Obviously anytime we ever have a can insert sort of stimulus from other governments or simple banks It usually is done in a number of rounds Also over the weekend we've heard from the people people's Bank of China And they announced plans to actually reform the lending market. I said she's looking Looking to making to make borrowing cheaper And the idea is of course if companies can borrow At a charade they're more likely to likely to borrow and to spend and to invest in the business and help the economy push on from there What we've seen this morning from the eurozone was that CPI was actually revised lower to 1% from 1.1% and the decline in CPI can highlights Highlights the fall in demand the also the core CPI was also revised lower This really can underlines kind of falling demand within the eurozone Increases they're going to chatter about the European Central Bank having some sort of stimulus package next month Also, the price of oil is higher. There's tensions in the Middle East There's a report report of a joint attack carried out by by the M&E's on Saudi Saudi Saudi oil plants One issue that's been hanging on the French markets the last few weeks and months has been present the trade Staff between the US and China the two sides are due to meet next month, but More recently we've heard from President Trump who said that he's not yet not yet ready to make a deal Looking ahead at the weeks events if you go to our website seems your markets calm and under insights And then under news analysis, you can find the bulk of the updates on myself on my Fatal up market analysts produce Looking ahead to tomorrow. We have first-time figures from person in the UK homebuilder on Tuesday We have second quarter figures from Home Depot over in the US Wednesday We have the minutes from the latest Fed meeting Wednesday, we have second quarter numbers from Target over in the US on Thursday We have the flash manufacturing and service PMR ports from France and Germany That'd be close to watch because like I said the speculation at the European Central Bank could announce some stimulus package at the September meeting on Thursday, we have the Jackson Hole Symbolsium Traders are going to be listening off for any cute any clues in relation to what the Federal Reserve are going to do come September There's been a lot of talk of speculation and the bond markets are seriously pricing in Interest rate cuts from the Fed from the Federal Reserve, but the role economic The role economic indicators are actually very positive retail sales are decent all the problem is low and wages are Contrary outstripping inflation both the financial markets are very much heavily pricing in loosening of monetary policy by the fade in September on Thursday a second quarter figures from cap The US fashion house and on Friday We have retail sales figures from Canada and that gives indication of Whether Canadians are going out and spending money or not. It is worth pointing out We did see a tick up in Canadian unemployment recently So taking a look at some of the major markets We had a positive day on Friday, but by and large it was a very negative week for global equity So take a look here at the Foxy 100 We can see that the fairly severe losses incurred in the middle of last week, but we have been pushing pushing higher So we're not too far away from the this red line here Which is a 200 a moving average and that comes into play at 7,000 194 Broadly speaking if you could have thought of the turn the moving average that's seen as kind of positive market sentiment If you're below it, I see the kind of negative market sentiment. So we're kind of right on it. So The markets are recovering grounds and it's not a lot of fear going on out there But the last few days we have seen the market push move to the upside and if you can hold above these levels here In around the 70 79 And it can 7,000 if you hold above that kind of region there It's like we could see the market push out a bit higher and if you do manage to go take out say 7,200 Just north of the 20 moving average. We could be looking at retesting this area here the highs of early The highs of early August and that comes into play at just north of set of a 3000 site Just north of 7,300 7,300 and 6 and if you press on higher from there Republican retesting this blue line here the 50 moving average it acts as both support and resistance in recent months So it might be an important metric in the near future and that comes into play at 7,426 It's a similar picture picture situation over in Germany whereby the markets had a fairly severe sell-off about In the last week but have been going to pushing higher and we're trading above the 20 moving average on the decks, which is a which is a Good good. Well, it suggests that that kind of sentiment is turning around But you know, we're still a long way away from the kind of highs of July So if you can't continue to press on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting this area here in around 11,853 And if you go beyond that we could be like a target in the psychological important 12,000 However, the market market manages to turn over on itself yet again We could be looking at it back to this area here 11,400 there's a bit of consolidation in that area only last week and a move below that could take us back down towards 11,270 and you can spot here how It's not exactly a surprise at the lows of last week or in around the same lows that we saw in In late March. So keep an eye out for 11,270 US markets are in are in a bit better shape, but they're also Kind of in recovery mode. I call the European markets are so take a look at starting off at the Dow Jones So as you can see yesterday last week rather we saw a fairly severe sell-off in the US But the lows of last week were as low as the lows of the previous week Despite me, I'll see a dreadful day Wednesday, but the market has managed to regain Move back above the tour to moving average It is been pushing higher and we've cooped a fair bit of the losses that occurred last week And if you can manage to press on higher from here, we could be looking retesting this area here in around 26,400 a few occasions that area acted as a resistance. So I might do so in the near term And if you if you do have a size of a break above that we could be looking at return targeting this area here in that This area here is the coincides with the 50 moving average and that's in around 26,625 And it's only really if the market returns overall itself and goes back below this this red line here It turned to moving average which coincides with the psychology born 26,000 mark It's only really if you have a size of break below that Then we'd be beginning to think that you know what the white You know the more recent downward trend is still very much in play and if you go below that Republic he had a back down towards 25,200 this kind of zone down around here Take a look now at the S&P 500 It's a similar situation where by the S&P 500 did occur pretty brutal loss last week in the middle of last week But we have been gaining ground and we have managed to actually pull back a lot of losses that occurred on Wednesday So as you can see markets been pushing higher the last few sessions And if you can press on higher from here We're looking at targeting this general region here with this trend line with this line this line is in play that comes into play just at a 2,952 it's also almost coincides with the 50 moving average this blue line here Which as you can see actually as but resistance and support not too long ago Arithmetic has been important in the past it makes it more likely it will be so in the future So if you can press on higher from here and we can take out this area Then we can become more confident that the recent sell-off has come to an end I would cut even be lucky heading back up towards the current 3000 mark If you do see the market turn over on South again, we could be looking at heading back down towards this area This trend line here if you go all the way back from February 2016 and draw to the lows of November 2016 you get this trend line along here on a few occasions In the last number of months and last year or so it did manage what was a fairly significant For a fairly significant line in that it acted as support and resistance on a few a few occasions And it's on if you can manage if you do manage to turn over itself But again, we could be looking at finding potentially find support in on this trend line at 2850 and a break below that could take us back down toward this red line here the journey moving average Which comes to play just south of 2800 the gold market has been one of the major beneficiaries of the recent sell-off in an uncertainly global equities a mixture of the fight equality Factor, but also if the incentives are very worried if the US are going to cut interest rates In next month, that's softened up the US dollar and in turn make gold even more attractive because gold is quoted in US dollar So gold only last week printed fresh six-year highs since we've been doing that by that recently So it's in a very solid upward trend There's a we can see it at the market after printing a fresh six-year high on the Tuesday Hasn't quite as been drifting a small bit lower since then but still very much in the upward trend And if you can fall a bit further from here support could be found in around the kind of 1480 mark or perhaps even down this region here in around 1453 So buying of the dip has been a fairly popular strategy in recent months So if you do see move to the downside, we might see fresh buyers after the fold if the wider upper trend does continue Which is looking likely that it will give them that if you've been hitting six-year highs multi-year highs quite recently We could really get back to the world's recent high at 1535 and a movie on that could take us up to 1555 this a level last seen in February 2013 I'll take a look what's going on in the oil market starting off a friend As I mentioned Older feel a little higher today, but the wider trend has been has been quite poor So if you take a look at the price action since April you can see this building The oil market has been steadily moving lower and particularly since July and Brent, you know If I seen a lower low a lower high a lower low and the lower high here So it's very much in a downward trend And I think in a wider downward trend does continue We could look a retest in this area here in around fifty six dollars a barrel or that down towards fifty Just shy of fifty six dollars a bar in around fifty five ninety three And if you go below that we could be looking at heading back towards this area here down around fifty two If you did manage to kind of press on higher from here this blue line here We could see that few occasions the markets didn't wasn't actually that kind of perfect resistance There's a few occasions of the market really couldn't get that far beyond the 50 moving average this blue line here And also the attorney moving average it comes to play as well So in around the kind of 63 mark or the 64 spot 56 area these areas could act as resistance Should we see a push higher in the in the oil market on Brent? I take a look at WTI now So so as a similar ish picture with WTI so particularly you can see here since Since July a lower low a lower high a lower low and another lower high, but this could be case of The market still remains below just nerdy below its turn of the average this red line here And that comes into play at fifty six spot eleven I said to you if you could hold below if you get into hold below that it's likely that the kind of recent downward trend Is going to continue and if you live move lower from here We could be looking heading back below fifty four dollars a barrel this area here I'll move below that could take us back down for this area here in it fifty down at fifty spot thirty six If you do manage to get a press on higher from here and retake the journey moving average on the oil market I keep it up for this area here the one really moving average in that fifty eight spot fifty eight We can see that there wasn't consolidation in around that price metric not long ago So it makes it more likely That that metric could be important in the future take a look now. What's going on at the euro versus US dollar? So it's a fairly clear and obvious downward trend in the euro versus the US dollar seems to be a fairly slow move to the downside As I say in this other speculation that the ECB are gonna have since there are stimulus package next month Inflation and core inflation in the eurozone Have been revised lower Germany and had a posted negative growth last week Things aren't looking too great for the single currency and essentially if you continue to press on lower from here We could look any back down towards the psychological important one Ted mark and if you do manage to bounce back on your dollar We can see here on a few occasions very recently this will Wanted to move the average this yellow line and the blue line if it is moving average both these metrics We're kind of almost a little overlapping each other This area here is active at resistance So it's possible that we could find some resistance come into play in the same area in around one spot 12 40 one spot 1250 because it this kind of region here I was only really if you go have a size move beyond that because then we could begin to think you know What maybe the recent hour trend has come to an end and take a look finally now at the pound versus the US dollar So then a very clear cut downward trend on the pound versus the US dollar a lot of weakness in Starting at the moment. Well, especially that will last week at least we've seen a bit of a turnaround the last couple last few sessions That is largely driven by the uncertainty in relation to Brexit some economic indicators in the UK been strong the job the straights low earnings are respectable Retail sales can better than expected But the uncertainty in relation to what would happen if you in the event of a no-deal Brexit I've been really kind of weighing on the power so see more Possibility of political outcome rather than the economic indicators have been driving this But if you take a look at this price here a Lot of negative news has been as in price stain We kind of didn't get quite down to the psychology port and 120 mark We got recently close to it and we can see here on a Monday last week There's a fairly long week on this candle here That's this positive candle and it comes at a time where you have quite a few red candles for preceding it And usually if you ever see a long week on a on a candle that that's that's That that can be a sign of indecision now I said that mark is gonna entirely turned around but it's just indecision and if you've had a quite a few heavy losses beforehand Now the markets appeared to be decisive. This could be a sign that the market isn't gonna recoup some of the recent losses And as you can see here We've kind of gained a few higher highs and a few higher lows So this could be case of market looking to kind of recoup some of the ground that's been lost in recent weeks We could be looking any back towards one spot 22 or we could be looking at any back towards one spot 24 But obviously if the wider downward trend continues, I would take out the recent lows We could be looking any back down towards one spot 20 Before we go if you're any comments to make in this video or any of the other videos We've made here at CMC markets, please feel free to leave a view on your views. Thank you very much