 A Keating research poll conducted in Colorado's Third Congressional District between September 29 and October 2 finds that Lauren Boebert is in danger of losing her re-election bid. So Axios explains, Bobo received support from 47% of likely voters while Democrat Adam Frisch landed at 45% making the race a statistical tie within the 4.4 percentage point margin of 7% of voters are undecided per the poll. Unaffiliated voters, those not aligned with the major political party, strongly dislike Bobo, who's known for her Christian nationalist rhetoric opposition to bipartisan legislation, and lightning rod remarks about guns and immigration. Those voters are shifting towards Frisch as the election progresses, Polster said. With Boebert under 50%, that means she is vulnerable to losing this race. Chris Keating, president and founder of Keating Research told Axios Denver on Tuesday. Now, let's pause for a moment and try to contemplate what this would mean if Lauren Boebert actually lost her re-election bid. This means that the GOP would be forced to grapple with whether or not their party's far-right extremism is hurting them electorally speaking. It would be a political earthquake. To not have this extremist in Congress would be good. It'd send a message to individuals like Marjorie Taylor Greene and others that they're not invulnerable and the impossible could happen. But not to rain on everyone's parade. I don't necessarily think that this is going to happen. Unfortunately, Keating is a Democratic Polster, although they are viewed as relatively reputable. The problem is that even though there's a chance, even though this poll is a good sign, even though it's possible that a fresh defeats Bobo, it's very, very unlikely, unfortunately. And let me tell you why. First and foremost, Colorado's third district heavily favors Republicans usually. And I don't think that Bobo is as much of a deviation from the norm, considering how insane and extremist other Republicans are. Sure, she's out there. Sure, she's worse. But is she bad enough to get them to either vote for a Democrat or not vote? I don't necessarily think so if history is a guide. Also, 538 gives Bobo a 98% chance of winning. So there is a chance to cite Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber. But it is a very small chance. Now, another thing working in her favor is money. According to Open Secrets, she's raised more than $5 million this cycle and has more than $2 million in her campaign coffers, whereas Adam Frisch by comparison has only raised $1.1 million. And I say only knowing that $1 million is a huge amount, but compared to Lauren Boebert's $5 million. And politically speaking, this isn't necessarily that much, considering he now only has under $600,000 in his campaign war chest. Also, most of his campaign is financed by himself, and he has almost no grassroots support, which means that he's not doing enough to register new voters and create enthusiasm. And he's instead just relying on disaffected independence, which, as we've learned throughout the years, is not a very good strategy for Democrats. Now, Boebert is pulling in massive amounts of cash. The majority of her contributions come from wealthy campaign contributors who are maxing out their contributions. So in order to even have a chance of beating this machine, you've got to have a really robust, well-oiled grassroots political machine. And Frisch just doesn't seem to be organizing to that extent, because again, he's kind of relying on independence. So politically speaking, he's running this standard, one-of-the-mill, milk toast, Democrat campaign. And he's not really taking a bold stance on any of these issues. He's just running as a Colorado First campaign, trying to be seemingly or at least aesthetically right-wing enough to perhaps court some disaffected independence who just don't want to support Boebert. But I don't think this is going to work in the end. Now again, that's not to say that he is doing that bad because he has made a huge swing and he's not statistically tied, at least according to this poll. But I actually think that this poll is an outlier and I don't necessarily think that this poll has anything to do with Frisch. I think it has everything to do with Boebert. But if he were to turn this around and perhaps use this poll to galvanize supporters, to get the National Democratic Party invested in this race, perhaps he could write out that momentum and do even better. But in terms of him actually defeating her, it is very unlikely unless, as I said, he changes things and he starts trying to appeal to a broader base. He's really narrowly appealing to independence, but running a centrist campaign means that he's not going to be able to galvanize the left flank of the Democratic Party, nor will he be able to inspire younger voters. And to defeat a Republican who can raise money this much in a very deep red district, you've got to bring out the broadest base of support. You've got to be constantly registering new voters. And he's kind of just coasting on momentum from self-funding his own campaign. So it honestly doesn't look good in my opinion, despite this poll. Perhaps this trend will continue and he'll gain more ground on her. And the poll is good. Like, I don't want to ran on everyone's parade. This is a good sign, but it's still very unlikely that she loses this race. But we'll just have to wait and see what I like to be proven wrong. Absolutely. But the headlines on this particular one, it's accurate because they're statistically tied. At the same time, I'm not going to get my hopes up and I recommend that you also don't get your hopes up.