 Hello Moscow, this is Tom Schaller from Washington DC where it's a little bit after 1 a.m. Eastern time here in the nation's capital Thanks for inviting me. I look forward to talking to you for the next half hour about the election results So hello Moscow Okay Well, I can just sort of give you an overview of what I think happened tonight, and then I'll take some questions if you want to do it that way Though there Are some outside chances and there are still not enough states called to declare Donald Trump the victor I think given what we're seeing in most of the states and including the states that he's already won That Donald Trump will be elected the 45th president of the United States And he will become America's first president with no military or political or electoral office background He will win largely on a significant uptick and surge in support from white voters in America And we'll have put together a coalition that includes many of the traditional Republican states of the inner Mountains the plane states as well as pockets of the rust belt and Some key southern states including North Carolina and Florida as well as the deep south which is of course traditionally Republican and We'll win with the probably somewhere around 300 electoral votes give or take Well, yeah, in short, I'll give you Obvious look at what's going on then ready to be seen on the question while early on the percentage of 100 percent predicts to say that who will win but taking into account the number of votes of those states that have already been read I can say that according to all the probabilities Donald Trump will become the 45th president of the United States of America But I will tell you that this is the first president who has no experience in terms of Political experience without military experience never did not take any chosen duty Anyway, he may become a president and if he becomes a president, it is mainly thanks to the support of the voting of the White population He created a coalition in which the states that traditionally support the Republican Party States in the middle of the West also in the South of the United States, including North Carolina and Florida Go ahead. Oh Do you want me to continue talking or you want me to just take questions from this point, right? Yeah, I guess we'll do a questions here I mean, I can keep talking if you want. It's up to you guys Okay, it's not loud enough Yeah, you got to speak up a little louder, I can't hear you Okay How do you think we're having a president and Congress on policy? How will it impact American foreign policy? So how will having a president and Congress all of one party impact American foreign policy? Well, I guess we should take Donald Trump at his word. I think we will perhaps renegotiate some of our existing trade agreements Uh, some of our strategic alliances with NATO, uh, perhaps maybe revisited Um, I'm not sure, uh, you know, Trump has made promises To the effect or claims to the effect that he doesn't care if North Korea becomes a nuclear state and other countries So, uh, the United States position vis-à-vis the world could change very dramatically In terms of our long-standing military alliances and our long-standing trade alliances with other capitalist countries both in our hemisphere and uh, and uh, certainly in asia, so Whether or not that was a lot of nativist talk And bluster, uh, designed to win the election or whether Trump really means it. I mean, he has called You know, NAFTA the worst trade deal ever negotiated I can't imagine that he wouldn't then proceed to fulfill the promise to to renegotiate it or Have the United States remove itself um He doesn't believe climate change is real so Presumably the Paris Accords Will cease to To exist from a u.s standpoint and we will Join the small list of nations who aren't part of a global plan to reduce carbon emissions And with a republican senate, which is assured as of tonight in our republican house It's hard to see how the congress will step in and stop trump So I think it'll be four years of reversing a lot of uh, international Related policies on trade on immigration On global climate change And on alliances and then of course there will be a similar revanchism or reversal or attempted reversal on a variety of domestic policies as well But you didn't ask about that The campaign Donald Trump said that he was ready to give up a number of agreements, including a trade agreement From strategic alliances, including to look at our relations with NATO Our tour, now to say, there were promises and claims that he was talking about What will he do if he, when he takes over the White House, it's hard to say He even said that he would still be left with the North Korea, with the clear states Or not So the position of the United States to the external world can change a lot It can change our relations with the military alliance, with the trade alliance And how in the West, in the West of Asia, it can change the relations with the other countries Maybe it's just that he was talking about this loudly during the election campaign With the fact that he would win the election Or maybe he was really ready to pay for what he promised He said, for example, that the agreement with NATO is a terrifying agreement We need to give up and give up He said that he wouldn't believe in the change of the global climate So we can assume that the United States will give up the Parisian agreements And enter a small list of countries that are not ready to stop The gases that cause the Pornikov effect If the Bolsheviks in the Congress will take over the Pobekanskaya Party They will not oppose it So the current four years can be said that there will be major changes In the international policy of the United States, in the field of trade and migration The change of the global climate and the relationship with our alliance This is some kind of revenge that will happen And in a number of internal issues as well There's not a lot of friends in the Congress to Kremlin So how will the new policies to Russia change? How will the new policies of the U.S. to Russia, if you have this presidency And a Congress that never loved Putin's Russia How will the new relationship with Russia look like then? Well, I do think Trump faces resistance in Congress Obviously from the Democrats, the opposing party And he also faces significant resistance within his own party About a third of the members of Congress in the House and Senate didn't endorse him Now whether they'll be pushed back from within his party Which will be the majority coalition It matters less if the Democrats are opposed to his policies domestic or foreign Because they'll be in the minority in both chambers So the real interesting question is whether they'll be pushed back in Trump party Pushback between and among Republicans Particularly Republicans who were of the Never Trump coalition Who wouldn't endorse or support or vote for Donald Trump And that could be a very interesting political fight A partisan fight, intraparty fight That affects not just U.S. policy to Russia But like I said earlier, affects U.S. foreign policy more broadly And domestic policy as well A little bit perhaps less on domestic policy There's quite a bit more consensus within the Republican Party on that But yeah, I think for the most part I've had a largely two-party post-war, meaning post-second-war consensus But Trump, you know, clearly was borrowing both language And positions of an isolationist bent Which we heard from candidates like Ran and Ron Paul recently Which we've certainly heard from Republican candidates For president like Papu Kanan And whether or not the United States will, you know, Change its diplomatic and military posture Toward the world, I mean, I don't know I mean, we'll have to see what Trump does But, you know, the signals are clearly different From what we have seen, say, from George W. Bush And certainly George H. W. Bush, the two previous Republican presidents Before Donald Trump Thank you People inside the Republican Party that is against Trump Not only from the old Democratic Party We have to remember that almost a third of the members of the Senate And the Senate members from the old Republican Party Didn't express their support Trump as a candidate for the president And the Democratic Party will, in my opinion, In both the Congress's Senate And there is also one wing of the Republican Party Which says that Russia will never support Trump Of course, the policy of the United States will change Not only in relation to Russia But in general, the policy of the United States Will suffer some changes He performed with Kaki Ran and Ran Paul And former candidates for the president in Buchanan And the other with the Islamic policy and the proposals So there will be changes And diplomatic policy, military policy But in what sense, in what degree, it is difficult to say now But his policy will be much better Even from the former, previous candidates From the old Republican Party George Bush, the father of George Bush, the son This is again, you know, this radio, you're from Moscow And he's done polls in Russia Russia has quite popular view of Russia Many actually in Russia hope that Trump will win Did the U.S. voters know about this fact And how could you explain his popularity Trump's popularity in Russia? Well, I should be asking you How to explain Trump's popularity in Russia I don't really know the answer to that I think I can answer the question About whether American voters knew that I suspect that they don't And I don't know that they would care Although in theory they should to some degree I suppose I mean, there were definitely direct accusations back and forth Between the Trump and Clinton campaigns About how close and to what degree Donald Trump was close to Vladimir Putin and so forth But I don't know that Americans Payed that a close attention to that And I don't know I certainly feel confident that they don't Have any knowledge of I certainly didn't have public polls Taken of Russian citizens As to their preferences for the winner In the presidential race You know, it's possible they got advertised Or broadcasted in the media But I don't remember seeing much about it And even if they were, I don't know How much American voters would take that into account They were probably voting more on issues Like immigration and trade and so forth And Trump's promises there Or Hillary Clinton's policies on Obamacare or what have you Then they were on what foreign voters think Oftentimes foreign voters prefer One presidential candidate or the other Doesn't mean they necessarily won I think most European voters were supportive Of Al Gore over George Bush But that didn't prevent George Bush From winning that election in 2000 And so sometimes the attitudes Of citizens of foreign countries Make it into the American newspapers But I don't, as a general rule I don't think that affects the internal calculus Of most American voters But in fact, I'm not sure That American voters pay much attention To this question Even I myself didn't even know How many American voters would know That they were being held Social issues in Russia And who they gave preference to In the opinion of the candidate The president of the United States I'm not sure that American voters Pay much attention to this They're worried, say, about What issues like immigration, trade The issues of domestic politics This is Trump's issue That is, they're worried How the health care program will be changed Obama Kerr These are the issues that we're talking about Of course, it can be said that In Europe, when Bush and Gore Walked in the main European countries The population, they stood up for Gore But they didn't change According to those elections Bush won, so They can appear in those newspapers Telling about these issues But I don't think that American voters Will take this point And one final question This is the new newspaper Then in the week before the elections There were forecasts That Hillary was most likely Going to win up the 90% chance Of her winning Hillary So are you surprised With the incoming results Now here at the vote And why is there such a huge gap Between the forecasts And the actual results from the elections Here that we have in so far Thank you That's the question of the night I mean, either one of two Or maybe both of two things are true One is that the polling wasn't very good To begin with Or the polling was good But the forecasting models were bad If I had to guess It's probably more the quality of the polls Than it was the forecasting models That use those polls to create their projections It's quite also possible That the polls in terms of their sampling And their likely voter screens Were not capturing quite a few White voters who either Were saying they weren't going to vote for Trump But did Or simply had registered And turned out for the first time And weren't being captured in the polls And therefore weren't included In the estimates So to me I do think this is a moment where Hillary Clinton led in most of the national polls Over the last two or three months Donald Trump rarely got above 41, 42, 43% in the national polls He may still win Excuse me May lose the national popular vote Hillary Clinton may win the election As Al Gore did in the popular vote While losing it in the electoral vote So that would be interesting Because the polls did show her leading She may win the popular vote But just not have her votes In the right combination of states So we won't I don't think know a lot of that For sure Until tomorrow or the next day As we finalize all the tabulations But I do think there is going to be A lot of questions asked About the poll forecasters And about the polling firms themselves About the population who are asking for the wrong elections For example, maybe they didn't ask much About the white voters And maybe there were white voters Who said that they wouldn't vote for Trump But in fact they wouldn't vote for Trump Or maybe these white voters Who for the first time will vote And don't get any questions So maybe one of these three moments And of course Hillary She was leading all the questions For the next two or three months Trump's ceiling was around 41%, 42%, 43%, not more So maybe it will turn out That he, as far as the total number of votes He is losing But he will still take the voters Hillary can be charged with Popular support of the population That is, more votes But not in the right United States That is, she loses the election You can ask a whole series of questions About the poll Thanks very much for joining us tonight I know it's late, your time Yep Well, I want to thank you for inviting me to Moscow And we've been doing these Q&As Since about four o'clock Yesterday afternoon here at Eastern Time So as this is the closing one for the night I want to thank all the embassies and consulates That myself and my colleagues joined More than a dozen countries tonight And to the embassies and the consulates And the American spaces in those countries And to all the people who have followed along In the online feed with their questions and comments Thanks for joining us for election 2016 And we'll see you in four years