 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is a big week in the sporting calendar. We got men's college basketball conference tournaments coming up the players in golf is coming up We're gonna talk about those the next couple of days But today we're gonna kick off week by talking about some NBA and NHL with Tom Vecchio He'll break down his favorite pets are both those across Fandall sports both to get you ready Which should be a fun week This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio checking out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Tom. How are you doing today? I'm doing good. Yeah, it's certainly an interesting time We're coming to the close of NBA and NHL a lot of teams You know making the final play of pushes getting things ironed out and then you know college basketball in March Manus is right around the corner. It is which means I had to do my like Jam session in terms of like studying because I don't have time to pay attention to college basketball most of the year Luckily, I'm not giving out advice So it doesn't matter that I'm not paying attention But like I have to like ask competent questions not so like a moron which is difficult So I'm trying to jam stuff in trying to watch Northwestern be the two seed in the Big Ten men's tournament You know who could have predicted that so we're slowly ramping back up luckily talking to you talking to Brandon talking to Austin about NBA NHL's hopefully Made my like overall knowledge there a bit more passable But obviously not gonna give out advice. I'm gonna lean on you once again, Tom to break down the NBA break down some NHL We'll talk about wrapping up the trade deadline as well in the NHL to tie the error to close the loop on Our discussion for last Thursday there We'll dive into that in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get these podcasts as they are posted Brandon Ghadoula is with us tomorrow talking NBA and the PGA for the players massive field there A lot of money to be distributed. We'll talk about that tomorrow Wednesday Ed Feng will be in Talk about some men's college basketball conference tournaments It'll be with us next week to for NCAA tournament podcast Bennett Corcoran back with us next week as well on Monday from We've had him on the past couple years to talk about NCAA tournament He'll be with us Monday for the bracket breakdown and we'll talk futures with us on Tuesday to get all those as they are posted Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. All right, Tom Let's start things off here by talking about tonight's NBA slate It is a six-gamer and when you look at the Traditional market bets across those six games any bets sent out to you there a fan dual sports book Yeah, starting off with the Celtics I like them plus six and the Celtics are coming off of very exciting game last night, you know double over time Versus the Knicks the Knicks are Flying right now. There was a nine-game winning streak, but Celtics plus six at the Cavaliers I think is a bit of an overreaction and there's a lot going on in this game first off The Celtics they don't have Rob Williams. They announced that yes prior to yesterday's games about for seven or ten days They are on a back-to-back, which means they might not have Al Horford. They've been you know, he's a veteran They've been known to rest Al Horford at times this year The Cavaliers also have Don Vimiccio their best player listed as questionable tonight So a lot going on in this game We're not seeing any player props post yet, but the Celtics plus six the Celtics are arguably the best team of the So I think this line is a bit of an overreaction to you know Some of these external circumstances the Celtics still adjacent Tatum. They still have Jalen Brown They still Derek White they still Malcolm Brogdon. They still Marcus smart like this is a really good team that just happens to be in a Particularly like unique circumstance between a few injuries a back-to-back against another good team I'm not going to say the Cavaliers are as good as the Celtic So I will take probably one of the biggest lines we've seen with the Celtics this year They've been the best team in the league up until you know the past few days when they dropped a few games So plus six just seemed like too many points does the the six-point spread here mean to you the market expects Mitchell to play Is that kind of your read on that? I think so I think it's a combination of you know, he's just listed as questionable. He's been playing in recent games It's not like a serious injury You know, they are missing Rob Williams who is a very good defensive center But you know both teams are in the bottom 10 the league when it comes to offensive pace or bottom half League I should say when it comes to offensive pace like this does not set up It also is the lowest overrunner on the slate So it's like it's set up to be this normal defensive style game that both of these teams are very good at and I think the six points If that's the case is just too many. Yeah So the six-point spread there for the Celtics and the Cavaliers any thought to you Tom to waiting here until we get confirmation Mitchell will play to see if that moves the market or do you think that's baked in enough where we won't see things move too Dramatically even if he does get ruled in officially Yeah, I think it's fine where it is because the we're also waiting on injuries for the Celtics like sure rule out Al Horford Like that's sure change it too much sure So I'll just take the six points now and if it if it happens to get to seven or whatever might be I'd still be comfortable with that. Okay, so Celtics plus six where Tom is looking at there What about for player props in the NBA Tom anything send out to you there? Yes starting off Let's go to Denver Hosting the Toronto Raptors and we know that yokich is awesome at all these things and you know A lot of people look to yokich for you know a conversation we've had is like where can you find value in yokich props? It's triple double. It's a PRA, but I also like to flip things on the other side Okay, what is yokich great at and I just spoke about this with Ben Stevens on serious sex I'm a few minutes ago. It's like what is yokich great at? Well, it's great at rebounding ball And what does that mean? It means that nuggets around the fourth fewest rebounds per game to opposing centers Which means what well the opposing centers don't necessarily have big games That means yaka hurdle for the Toronto Raptors under eight and a half rebounds staying a minus 113 Both teams are in the bottom 10 league when it comes to offense pace You know the nuggets are solid on defense. So yokich is obviously the front-runner for MVP third time in a row etc. Like he does all these great things people are starting to have these massive games. It's like, okay If he does something well There may not be value on his prop just because the rebound it might be juiced But what does that mean? How do we like I always say it's like reverse engineer It's like well that means the opposing team is not me getting a lot of rebounds That means unders for their rebounding props And I think that that's that's a correlated market So you think you're going to put assumption your assumption is Nikola yokich the MVP leader right now is good at basketball I think that's a fair assumption to make Tom going on on a limb despite my limited MBA knowledge Fair assumption that he's good and then you ask what's the best market for taking advantage of that assumption and I think this makes a lot of sense Pertle right now as you mentioned under eight and a half minus 111 at Fandle sports book on that number So what you're doing is basically just going in and trying to find a different route The best route for betting an assumption you have and again that assumption is a very fair one to make right now, right? So it's it's not only It's like some you know baseball you can there's some some books offer like pitcher props where Like you can take hits against their earned runs or like what it's like I'm not only betting like I don't want to lay like, you know We've talked about this before like you may lay like be willing to lay like minus 250 on a money line Yeah, but if you're gonna if that teams in a spot to win It's like okay that pitchers probably be giving up a lot of runs right can attack it from a different way right and like other things too like Outs recorded they have that available. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah If you think that the pitcher struggles with pitch count You could bet their strikeout prop under or you could take the outs recorded under there There are multiple outs to doing that too. So I think just having that thought process of okay. Here's my assumption What's the best way to exploit this asking yourself that is always a key thing and like there are sites I talk about that scope quite a bit on the show But like that scope allows you to put in like an assumption and it'll find like good ways to bet that so You there are markets or things out there that could help you with those assumptions But I think just kind of going through that thought process is pretty helpful Any other props you like for tonight in the NBA? Yeah, one other domed is a bonus of the sacrament of Kings They are hosting the Normans pelicans Deer and Fox the point guard for the Kings is listed as questionable. So turning to subbonus their next best player over 33 and a half points plus rebounds It was sitting a minus 118 just a little while ago The pelicans still have their starting center Jonas Valenchunus listed as questionable. He's missed a few games in a row Still with them in the line if they are bottom 10 elite for points allowed per game opposing centers and bottom half when it comes to rebounds Subbonus is recent game log not only recent, but really just this entire season has been awesome Constantly pushing towards a triple double these big 24 14 You know 18 17 games where he's just piling up the stats is great to see both teams top half league when it comes off The pace as is the 237 over under as is reflected like dramatically different compared to the calves in the Celtics Which is that like to 18 and a half like a 20 point difference is massive So, you know if the starting point guard for the Kings is out It just means more touches for subbonus who's already awesome to begin with that number as you mentioned for subbonus in the points Plus rebounds department is over 33 and a half minus 118 right now if you handle sportsbook pretty limited props to this game up I'm assuming because of Deer and Fox, but Subbonus is tied to him too. It sounds like based on your the way you you broke that down So kind of surprised to actually posted personally He's tied to it In this in some capacity like the match in the over-under is still still good the pelicans are weak on defense So, you know, he could get to this with Fox in the game. Sure. Okay, so Subbonus again, 33 and a half points plus rebounds minus 118 on the over there Anything else in the NBA time for a shift focus to the NHL? No, I think it's looking, you know, Celtics couple player props I Would have interest in ultimately the nuggets under just because that's how I expect the game to play out I don't think though as I've said before about the Raptors like they can't necessarily get in like these track me games Yeah with opposing teams, so that would be my only other take to the NBA Okay, so let's shift focus now and talk about some NHL We had you on on Thursday Tom, which was pre deadline and there were some more trades Thursday and then Friday before the deadline as well So we talked about the Patrick Kane move and stuff like that What other moves that went down after we talked do you think have an impact in terms of betting teams going forward in the NHL There weren't many big name acquisitions the penguins made a few trades Picking up Mikhail Grandley and picking up Nick Bonino who are like you pick up those players are like, okay I see what you're doing you are like trying to sure up and Solidify like your bottom six to roll put like bottom six forwards your role players Which are good moves like those moves don't move the needle too much So how would I would take that and turn it into a betting angle for the penguins? It's like okay Maybe is there a market to attack the penguins just to make the playoffs because I think that does strengthen their team overall Like these aren't flashy moves, but it does make them like incrementally better So if you could find the penguins to make the playoffs or take maybe start taking some unders on them Just because they're trying to play a slower defensive style just because they've been struggling on defense They like they can't push the pace so they have to play a more controlled style Which is we're kind of what these players are there, you know defensive mind did not offensive first players They have the offense with Crosby and Genslin Malkin and all these players So I would lean towards unders moving forward and then maybe just outright to make the playoffs for the penguins It's minus 340 right now if annual sports. Okay. Is that to yeah too far. It's too much No, it have to be on a game-by-game basis. Sure. It's probably also because they have I think three games in hand on the aisles They're jockeying for a wild car position So they have like three or four games in hand so and they're and they're in a wild card spot right now with games So it does make sense. I didn't know it's 340, but that's what I think that the overall thought process of they're now better You can apply that to game-by-game betting as well, right so unders or Yeah unders I wouldn't say puck line because they just don't necessarily have the offense always to push them to high goal Sure, okay, that makes a lot of sense so Pretending to be buying the penguins in the short term based on the small little moves they made Let's shift folks now talk about the Monday night slate here in the NHL once again a sixth game or here as well Let's start things off with the more traditional markets Tom. Where you've seen value there? That first team listed on the slate the Oilers to win in 60 minutes Oilers in regulation is minus 104 they are coming off of I want to say I don't want to say a bad loss, but You know, they're giving up all these goals to the Jets We on dry side all for the Oilers had a hat trick and you know You score your team scores four or five goals and you still lose like it is what it is It happens in the NHL, but the Oilers are a good team. They are better than the Sabres I expect this to be a very high scoring game as the seven over under would indicate But we get near even money for the better team with the best player in the world with Connor McDavid Who's on a record point pace all these sorts of things? We also see the Sabres over last month. They are allowing way too many goals per 60 minutes in five and five situations It's over 3.3. I will take the best offense in the league going up against a struggling defense all the time So I want to ask you about this the total as you mentioned is seven goals The Oilers to win straight up or minus 164 their money line there to win in regulation is minus 106 Do you think that your? Desire to bet the 60 minute money line versus the traditional money line differs based on the total net game because to me more goals implies I Don't know a little bit less variance. I'm not sure if that makes a lot of sense But to me more goals imply less variance, which means I should be more okay Betting a team to win in regulation versus the full the full market Do you have any sort of tie in your brain or is there a tie that you've researched between? Total goals in the game versus betting them to win in regulation versus the full market or what's your view of that? Is their relations there or is it kind of a non-factor? Um, I mean that's a tough question because We see so many like they're the stars play the abs on Saturday and that was seven to three stars so there's a massive amount of goals and Like I don't think I don't know I'd have to do like some serious research to say so I the answer is I don't have an answer right now But that is an interesting point is like how do the goal totals and The expectation of goal totals essentially impact the money line versus the regulation line, right? Yeah, cuz like for me thinking from a baseball perspective. I know I am more willing to bet a Larger money line underdog if I expect to be a lower scoring game because to me that introduces more variance more odds that One run is different. So that's the way it works in my brain But that's also different when it's a betting in regulation market versus betting overall So minus 164 in the oldest win overall, but minus 106 is where Tom is going for them to win in regulation What else is seeing in the traditional markets here in the NHL tonight the Ottawa Senators their puck line So minus one and a half for the Senators Sitting at minus 110 going up against the Chicago Blackhawks the Senators have been Unbelievable on offense over the last month. They're scoring 3.44 goals per 60 minutes in five and five situations Which is the third best in the league. They made a few trades at the deadline. They picked up picked up Jacob Chikrin the Offensive defenseman from the Arizona coyotes They are pouring in goals five six goals a game and they're going up against Chicago Who's one of the worst defenses in the league of the last month over the entire season? So the puck line for the Senators minus one and a half, which means they have to win by two So a four to two game a five to two game is very very possible And again that one directly correlates to the total market total in that game is six and a half With the over at minus 104 town's going with the puck line minus one and a half Which is minus 110 right now at Vandal sportsbook against the Senators and the Blackhawks, right? So if you if you look at the Senators team total in that game, yeah It's three and a half and it's a minus 150 or minus 152 on the over Okay, which is the expectation for them to school as they've been doing so in line with that a Player prop I like in that game would be Brady Kitchuk Score goal at plus 134. Okay, so You know, he top forward line top power play He has one goal over his past five games despite their scoring out first Which like four or five plus goals and in five straight games. He has one goal over this time He has his high shot volume. It's like all these things I talked about last week when you know We did get that Jordan Kyru goal For the blues on Thursday last week like it's the same thing like we have these high shot volumes on Like a prominent offensive roles for these players and they're just not scoring It's like they're due for that positive regression I was gonna see if Angel would let me do a same game parlay of The Kitchuk goal and the run in the puck line. They would not so we gave it a shot at least but Tom does like the to chuck to score a goal Market that is plus 134, but then also Senators puck line minus one and a half So the Kitchuk one is the first player prop What are the player props you like here across Monday night in the NHL the Matthew Shane for the National Predators visiting the Vancouver Canucks. So the Predators made some trades not in a good way trading players away They're also hit with some injuries where Philip Forsberg their best offensive player is out They're starting for the top line center Ryan Johansson is also out due to injuries and this leaves Matthew Shane as like realistically their best forward and When you have forwards on the top six of an NHL team that I've never heard of is a shot where they're calling a players From the eight like their teams not in a good spot. So they're trading away players Micael Brandon who I mentioned for the penguins. He was on Nashville. So trades and injuries Massively impacting the predators in the negative way leaves Matthew Shane has clearly their best forward So it's only two and a half shots at city on minus 130. I think that's a very fair line I think the prop is fine. I think the juice is fine He's on a line where the other players should be deferring to him to be the primary shooter for their offense so Vancouver one of the bottom five teams in the league like too much of it makes sense and honestly minus 130 I might think is not enough. I'd be willing to go to minus 150 on this spot So to Shane over two and a half shots right now if Andrew sportsbook is minus 130 Predators versus connects game you can bet some alts overs the four plus shots on goal free to Shane two to one Is that too ambitious or what do you think about that in the alt market? No, I think I think this is the opportunity to take these types of like Shots not not in terms of shots on goal But like this type of betting shot. Yeah, he can get to he's gotten a four and five in a lot of these recent games So if you wanted to put This is like laddering strike up right so if you want to put a unit on over two and a half a half a unit And then a quarter unit whatever might be I think this is a very reasonable Spot where we have so many things piling up like it's not necessarily like what we talked about like the paths to hitting it Over but there's just so many factors that are so positive for do Shane tonight I think the paths argument revolves around the trades though where there are fewer fewer paths to him not getting there With with fewer other options So I think that that makes sense. Okay, so you're betting one though You want the traditional market over two and a half minus one thirty, correct, right? Okay. Yeah, so that's Matt to Shane in the predator vs. Canucks game over two and a half shots minus one thirty in that one That is Tom Vecchio. Make sure you check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom You can find his NBA work on the daily ISO on the number fire daily fantasy podcast You can find his written work over at number fire calm Tom I appreciate the time as always good luck to you tonight in the NBA and NHL will talk to you once again here very soon Yeah, thanks for having me. Alrighty again. Check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom If you want to place an NBA DFS tonight check out the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed for the daily ISO we're gonna recap what went down here on the show last week go through the bets recommended in a good week in Racing and just one second at first the midway point of the NBA season is here And now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because new customers getting no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's bonus bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the Fandall sportsbook app It is safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from the money line to point scores and three strain plus Fandall even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay So don't miss a chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 bonus bets make every moment more with Fandall and official sports betting partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus and present in select states first online a real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is not with drawable bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see full terms at Fandall comms sportsbook gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Where's the fandall comms RG in Arizona 1 800 next step protects next up to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 88 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccp g.org slash chat in Indiana 1 809 with it in Kansas NY owning 1 805 2 2 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1877 770 stop in Maryland MD gambling help or in New York 1877 8 hope and wire text open Y in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's take a look back at last week here on the show and go back through the bets recommended to let you know Of my transparency perspective how things went. We'll start things off in the EPL We had Austin Cass on check out Austin on Twitter at Austin Cass and Austin had a very good week on the EPL side of things on Saturday he hit on Southampton to win. We said we preferred The market where there was a tie. No bet that was even money So is even money on Southampton the reason went there was because there was a lower hold in that market That was even money if you took them into win with a tie in the market. It was plus 175. They won one nil so There was a reason we took the tie no bet markets I want lower hold markets in general, but we'll take even money on the win there But kudos to you if you hit a plus 175 for them to win in the tie Offered market other bet was Liverpool plus 135 to beat Manchester United and they won seven nil so easy win there good call by Austin on that one a Really no sweat that they're on Sunday with the Liverpool one the one player prop was Kai Havertz to score Assistant the Chelsea leads match at plus 105 Chelsea did win one nil Havertz did not assist in the one goal But great boss and regardless check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass We have Brandon gandula on to preview the Arnold Palmer Invitational you can find Brandon on Twitter at gandula 13 check out his sims for the players if you want those with markets Now open over on number fire calm Kurt Kitty Yama. What it's really thrilling day in the PGA a bunch of guys in contention at the end But Kitty Yama did the dang thing really nice pot an 18 to win it Brandon's outrides were as Andrew Schauffly 24 to 1 Tony Finaw 26 Patrick Cantley 23 Cantley finished just two shots off the leads using contention there he finished up pretty early, so you kind of knew he wasn't gonna win but Cantley golfed well first time for him at the Arnold Palmer Schauffly in contention the first two days fell off over the weekend, but Cantley was right there the top 20 bet for Xander was for for Brandon mission calm Xander Was Brian Harmon he was plus 320. He missed the cuts. That's kind of how golf goes We'll bounce back and talk about the players with Brandon for tomorrow again check up Brandon on Twitter I could do a 13 Racing bets for me went really well, and I definitely got lucky There was luck involved, but you know no complaints at all We'll go chronologically here starting with Friday night That was the truck series the bets are recommended where time a jet ski top five at plus 170 Carson host of our top five at three to one but just he finished fifth so I cashed a plus 170 host of our finished seventh So he just missed got pretty close there profit regardless with the jet ski in the top five at plus 170 then Saturday Only extended these serious bets I had were Austin Hill They centered around him. I had value on him to win at 20 to 1 I said if you wanted to avoid Kyle Bush, you could take hill top five at plus 250 Both which were values from me hill was running second the entire third stage He's about two and a half seconds behind leader Chandler Smith Smith as a guy I was on for Fontana was not on him here So I had hill in a group bet against Smith and hill to win So I was one of the top five but really wanted him to pass Chandler Smith and he started to dig really pulled him in He'll caught him pass him on the last lap won the race So 20 to 1 winner cashed if you took the plus 250 for a top five you're happy as well but really nice to hit that Currently revamping my Xinnity series sims thanks to the fix I mentioned last week via the health and brandy gondola applying that to the Xinnity series So that was a final week for the old model went out on a high note with the Austin Hill win But I still think the new model is a better way to go two bets for formula one. Um, they looked real bad But on Sunday morning looked bad Saturday post qualified because the two bets we discussed in the show Were Lewis Hamilton to podium at plus 190 and Pierre Gasly to finish in the points at plus 110 Hamilton qualified seventh not good for a podium finish. Gasly Qualified DSL. He had a lap deleted in the first round didn't make it on the second round or the first round regardless But that had a lap deleted. He started dead last Hamilton finished fifth He would have needed a lot of attrition to finish on the podium So I didn't think he finished two spots off But he didn't have the speed to compete with Carla signs or Fernando Alonso Flynn Alonso passed him pretty late But a lot better tire degradation for Alonso, you know, I didn't deserve to win that bet Gasly though was awesome. He short pitted twice So what that means is he pitted before others to get fresher tires on and have a speed advantage for a bit That would mean he'd have less speed later on but he pitted from the first time in 18th was then running 13th picked his way through a couple of guys was running 11th and Charles Leclerc retired and that got gasly into the top 10 So ghastly running top 10 pits for fresh tires as did a lot of cars behind him. So Gasly passes Alex Albon to get up to 9th. He was running down Valtteri Botas for 8 didn't quite get there finished about a second behind But ghastly finished 9th inside the point. So plus 110 cash there got very lucky with ghastly I know it's it's not luck entirely because part of the bet is he's a fast car and fast cars can make passes But I still felt pretty lucky to win that one for sure I felt very stupid Sunday morning based on those bets, but Gas and made some magic so it's nice didn't deserve to win the Hamilton bet. So Deserved loss there cup series was Sunday night. I had three or four top 10s there Austin Dylan plus 250 Austin Cinderick plus 380 tie Gibbs Plus 410 Ricky Stena's junior 5 to 1 this one. They probably should have whipped entirely on but there was a late caution I believe Cinderick took four tires. Well, most others took two So he was able to make up a lot of ground on the restart and he actually finished inside the top 10 Finishes the highest finishing for it. I had that at 14 to 1 so it didn't recommend that in the show so no credit for that but Depends on how you scale those top 10s whether you cashed or whether you profited but and again probably didn't deserve that one but You know, it felt good to win the hill bet on Saturday to get the Cinderick top 4 bet at 14 to 1 I now my roll a group bet where another book badly mispriced him at 35 to 1 to win a group and got lucky there To win that one but really good week feel good about the the F1 Sims I think Making an adjustment up for Aston Martin bumped down for Mercedes should make things a lot better heading into Saudi in a couple weeks but Feel pretty good about that. So fun weekend racing profitable weekend racing. Hopefully it was the same for you whether it be racing golf EPL whatever it may have been. Hopefully you had a good week as well That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread back once again tomorrow talks in NBA and the players With branding a doula to get his read on those some men's college basketball coming up on Wednesday all right here in the same feed So make sure you subscribe wherever you get your podcasts big Thank you once again to Tom Vecchio check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom You can find me on Twitter at Jim Sonnis a J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across the NBA and NHL We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network