 Welcome to 2020 and the tick mill weekly market outlook for week commencing January the 6th with me Patrick Manley, first of all I'd like to wish you all a happy new year and a prosperous and peaceful year ahead. It's been a fairly volatile start to 2020 in the financial markets as Friday saw a distinct turnaround in equities and the oil price and safe haven assets like the Japanese yen spiked following the US raid on Iran which resulted in the death of the top of ruin in general. Markets are poised for potential escalation of this situation as we head into the new week ahead and you should be paying attention to the wires for updates on any potential news or escalation in that situation. From a data perspective in the US Monday sees final market PMI services and composite data while trade data is released on Tuesday along with factory orders. The ADP employment report is released on Wednesday with consensus at plus 168 000 for December after November's plus 67 000 reading. This is obviously a prelude to Friday's non-farm payroll report but after the huge divergence last month with November payrolls rising 266 000 markets may be less inclined to react to another surprise. Consensus expects a 175 000 gaining payrolls for December. Fed speakers next week include Clareder Williams, both voters this year, Bullard-Mevans who are non-voters. From a technical perspective the dollar index has tested a pivotal level at the 9710 which is the monthly pivot. We have found some resistance there but as we held the 9640 there is the potential that we get a close above the 9710 early next week and head on to test trend line resistance and the monthly R1 level from 9770 up to 9780 where I could once again expect sellers to step back into the market. However if we fail to recapture the 9710 level look for fresh selling and they move down through the lows at 9630 to test the key target of the 9580 area. Whilst we're talking about the dollar let's check in with Gold and see what we're up to. Gold as per the previous analysis that I discussed both in the chart of the day and in our previous weekly market outlook buyers have stepped into the market obviously with the risk averse trade that we saw at the back end of last week we've seen a surge in gold and it looks like now we're heading up to potentially test that much awaited 1585 target. I'll be watching this area very closely as if we can get some divergence from a momentum perspective and sentiment perspective and I can see the opportunity to actually step in and do some selling around this 1585 area. So for now we're just watching I'll be watching this double top expect some consolidation here but ultimately I'm looking for a move through the prior cycle highs at 1556 and I'm looking for a test at 1585. In Canada next week industrial production prices will be released on Monday trade and IV PMI data on Tuesday. Key housing data in the form of starts and permits those numbers will be released on Thursday with the employment report for December out Friday. The consensus is currently looking for a rebounding jobs plus 31,000 is the consensus following that very disappointing 71,000 drop in November's data. Recall that despite the apparent slowdown in hiring late last year wage growth was up plus 4.4% in November and remained elevated for the year from a technical perspective as the 13085 area now acts as resistance on any rebound. I'm looking for another leg down to complete a cycle of an impulse cycle to the downside here to ultimately test the projected descending trend line support down towards that 12840 area. However if we don't find fresh selling at the 13085 then I'll be looking for another leg higher to test back up into the 13250 area. In the Eurozone annual CPI inflation is forecast to have picked up to 1.4% in December from 1% in November that would be its highest reading since last April. However that would still leave inflation well below the ECB's target of close to about below 2%. Moreover call inflation excluding food and energy prices is expected to remain unchanged from November at 1.3%. So the rebound seems unlikely to be seen by markets as a signal that the ECB policy is about to shift in a tightening direction. Meanwhile November German factory orders due Wednesday and industrial production is due Thursday. These have been watched for signs that are something manufacturing activity is starting to level off. This is expected as the US-China trade deal may help ease the pressure on the German manufacturing sector which has a high weighting in investment goods industries and so can be significantly impacted by ships in business conflicts. From a technical perspective the Eurodollar tested the symmetry swing resistance cited at the 11240 area and sellers did step in. We saw some momentum divergence also develop and we then got a bearish outside reversal on Thursday. We saw some follow-through selling on Friday but we ultimately closed back above the monthly pivot at 1.1150. We're looking at the start of the week to see if we can see some fresh selling. If we do when we hold 112 as resistance then I'll be looking for a test of the 110.65 area. However if we go to see any fresh selling emerge and we can recapture 112 on a closing basis then I'll be looking for a test of the 112.70 to 112.90 level. Whilst we're talking about the Euro, let's check in with the DAX. DAX obviously align with other equity markets or a sharp reversal on Friday. If we continue to hold those current highs at the 13,460 level as resistance I'll be looking for a symmetry swing pattern to develop and ultimately see a test down back into that 12,600 area. I'll be looking for buyers to step back in there and ultimately to see a final leg of upside to test the 13,670 long-weighted equidistant swing target ABCD. UK Parliament reconvenes on Tuesday with the final passage of the EU withdrawal act first on the agenda. Three days of discussions are scheduled after which the bill is expected to go to the House of Lords on Thursday. Given the government's substantial majority the bill seems certain to pass ensuring that the UK by the end of January enters the transition period ahead of full withdrawal. Discussions between the UK and the EU on their long-run relationship will then get underway. Next week is a very light week from an economic data perspective and it's unlikely to provide much clarification on the UK economy. Although the British retail consortium's unofficial retail sales measure released Thursday will give a potential interesting gauge of the strength of retail activity over the Christmas period. From a technical perspective the sterling saw a sharp outside-day reversal and we broke below there on Friday through the 131 support area testing down back towards the 13050 level. I'll be looking for some follow-through selling and if we do see that early in the week then I'll be looking for an ABCD pattern to complete down into Trinoline support in and around the 127 area. However if we don't see any fresh selling emerge and we can manage to stabilize our current levels holding the 13050 support there is actually the potential that we set another ABCD pattern which will target a retest of the 135 post-election highs as it's upside objective. The Asian data docket is relatively light next week. In Japan we will only see manufacturing services PMI, wage growth data and household spending. From a technical perspective obviously as mentioned as we open this session the JPY has been supported in a risk-off mood that we saw due to the Iranian tension situation and we are now testing the projected Trinoline support down to that 108 area. If we can consolidate and hold here there's the potential that we will retest 109 next week. However if we do see follow-through selling early in the week I'll be looking for a continuation move down to test the base at 10650. In Australia key data includes the performance of the manufacturing and services PMIs. We also get the trade report, Westpac consumer confidence and retail sales. From a technical perspective obviously the Australian dollar is particularly sensitive to risk on risk-off sentiment and we saw some risk-off selling in the Australian dollar as we tested the projected Trinoline resistance up at that 70-30 level. If we see follow-through selling through 6930 at the beginning of the week I'll actually be looking for a test of the 6850 as the next objective on the downside. However if we can manage to hold and consolidate above 6930 there is the potential to retest price cycle highs at 70-30. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 6th of January.