 Welcome traders to another tick mill earnings report preview with me Patrick Mungley before we jump into today's report As always we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most pertinent to today's presentation Is the fact that the views expressed by me are solely mine and they are not Indictive or representative of those held by the UK or tick mill Europe limit it Okay, let's jump into today's report and we are looking at Madonna Madonna are set to announce before the open of New York trade today We're looking for an EPS selling to be shared four dollars fifty cents on revenue of four point two three billion I would note there is an earnings whisper on the street that EPS could come in as high as four dollars sixty one current EPS though does represent a 13.5% decline year every year and the revenue Four point two three billion represents a nine point two percent year every time of the last three months EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions and five downwards Revenue estimates have seen three upwards and five downwards as well companies stock rose five point eight One percent on May 4th the day reported its Q1 results beating analysts estimates COVID-19 vaccine spike backs made up Five point nine billion sales ahead of the five point one billion in consensus A report in July noted that Pfizer biotech and Moderna may post sequential decline in COVID vaccine sales with their Q2 earnings reports However, when Pfizer's Q2 results showed that COVID franchise continued to exceed four causes The demand for Moderna's vaccine is still there as the in July the company secured 1.74 billion contract from the US for its biotech omicron adaptive booster shots The government is reportedly mulling plans to launch a booster campaign with the Omicron adaptive vaccines in September Moderna and the EU agreed in June to push back delivery of the COVID-19 vaccine to allow for member states to receive a booster shot Later in 2022 or 2023 while the US FDA has stated that the future COVID-19 booster shots Should specifically include protection against the BA4 and BA5 Omicron sub variants European Medicines Agency noted that protection against original Omicron strain should be included in the vaccine boosters Moderna's Omicron booster vaccine has shown response against sub variants in a trial Moderna's part of the groundbreaking summit in July that the White House convened as part of a broad initiative to develop next generation of COVID-19 immunizations The company's COVID-19 vaccine also got approvals in Australia and Canada for younger children in June Moderna noted that instances of rare heart inflammation, microarrotis among children after receiving their COVID-19 vaccine are extremely rare at its higher overall in patients that come down with COVID During the second quarter Moderna announced plans to set up an MRA vaccine manufacturing facility in the UK The company also intends to invest 500 million euros in Spain and open the laboratory there to strengthen its vaccine production Let's take a look at some of the statistical trading patterns around Moderna earnings releases The MRA shares have moved higher in the immediate aftermath of earnings set now of 12 previous reports On average the stock moved up 3.3% in the first day of trading after the company reported earnings Based on the previous 12 earnings releases MRNA is more likely to trade lower one day after earnings for an average loss of 1.5% On average the stock has moved lower by 4.5% one week after earnings From a volatility perspective options traders are pricing in an 11.3% move on earnings However the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters Let's take a look at the flow and sentiment perspective here There's been notable buying 1,797 contracts of the $170 upside call expiring on Friday Options order flow sentiment in general has been bearish investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 55% expecting an earnings B Moderna share prices drifting 4.2% post earnings announcement Using the last 12 quarters of data the average drift between earnings announcements is 27.6% Let's pull up the chart and see what we can identify as potential trading opportunities here in Moderna So two scenarios I'm tracking here and I've got a specific pivot price point Which is going to identify either the bullish or the bearish scenario So in terms of the bullish scenario on the daily time frame, we have an impulsive sequence here We are still trading with a downward sloping channel But as long as we hold this 150 level Then I've been looking for a breakthrough 172.70 to engage on the long side looking for a move through the train channel resistance And we actually then have a technical upside objective of $216 which represents an equality swing versus this swing structure Now that obviously would be on the basis that these call buyers are on the right side of the market And we are going to extend to the upside However, if we take out this high volume mode on the daily time frame here at 140 150 that would be a bearish scenario for me and certainly any close through 124 taking out that weekly trend line support The game would open downside to my mind and we'd be targeting the high volume mode at 6614 So we really want to pay attention to If we can hold this 150 151 152 area Then we're targeting the upside objective But if we take out the 140 230 then we're looking to the downside As always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk Until next time. Thanks very much