 The conference championship matchups are all set now for this year. We had the Bengals facing the cheese We got the 49ers facing off with the Eagles Four of the big six we discussed throughout this entire year And honestly it was kind of fun that the final six teams remaining after the Saturday games were the big six We had discussed down the stretch of this season. So to see that playing to fruition was pretty fun It had the Bengals Pull off that money line upset to have the Bengals eight to one Super Bowl tickets still available a fun day in NFL for sure, but now We spin things forward to the conference championships and we've got to figure out how to handle this Patrick Mahomes injury And it's not easy by any means. I am Trying to account for it. We're gonna discuss my process and doing so discuss what I'm seeing in that game discuss The Eagles game as well and let you know my first look at the conference championship lines over at Fandall Sports Book Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to get take a look at the conference Championship betting markets over at Fandall Sports Book let you know where I'm seeing value how I'm adjusting for the Mahomes injury how much of an impact it makes my model and Get you set for those We'll also take a look back at last week's show and recap another good week for the podcast Later on we'll dive into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast big week coming this week We got more PGA coming up with Brandon. Good. Do it tomorrow also talk some MBA Tom Vecchio talking to NBA NHL on Wednesday Our full conference championship preview will be Thursday and talking player props for the conference championships on Friday to get All of that right as it is posted make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there If you like what you hear leave us a rating interview as well All these shows do go up on the Fandall YouTube page after the fact as well The NFL playoffs are here and the easiest way to get into the action is with Fandall America's number one sports book new customers join today to get started with $150 and free bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet Fandall has all your favorite bets from the money line to point spreads to player props plus You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same-game Parley all on an app that is safe secure and super easy to use So football fans don't miss out place your $5 bet to get $150 and free bets win or lose make every moment more a Fandall official sports betting Partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states first online a real money wager only Bonus issued is non with trouble free bets that expire in 14 days Restricts his applies to the terms that sports book dot the end will dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit handle dot com slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next set to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc PG dot or such chat In indiana 1 800 9 with it in wyoming in kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in k cancels ks gambling health dot com Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in new york 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open y and in tennessee call the red line at 1 889 9 7 8 9 So the big storyline of this week here will be patching my home cell So I wanted to run through what my numbers say both if I assume that he's fully healthy, which i'm not going to And after I make an adjustments with him being banged up if I run things with no adjustment Just run things straight based on each team at their current health assuming healthy in the homes I have the bank or the the cheese favored by 5.2 in my one model and 2.75 in the other The other one is lower. We've talked about this before the reason the one is lower is because It expects regression from them on late downs. That hasn't happened yet So that's probably why that model has not back tested as well That one has a higher correlation to the market, but the other one has had Better back testing results better mean square an error Better roi down the stretch this year as well So I trust that one more if I have healthy in the homes total in the game is 50.7 for me Right now the market has it as kc minus one and a half with the total at 47 and a half So obviously pretty big difference in what I have So if I run this straight it would show a lot of value on Kansas City and on the over But I think we can say with a lot of certainty that if my homes does play He's not going to be full my homes fully healthy running around making plays doing all that my home's magic So I had to adjust for that It's hard to know how much to adjust for it given that it is a diminished version of the same quarterback So I put in what I think was a pretty substantial adjustment both to Their passing offense and the rushing offense the rushing offense is because the Bengals can focus more on stopping the run Allocated more resources there my homes less lethal with his legs picking up first down scrambling and stuff like that So I think it's important to adjust both those things down and also adjusting their pass to run ratio A bit to where I expect him to throw or to run a bit more When I do that I get the cheese favored by 2.9 in one model and 2.1 in the other that brings the total down to 48.3 So even with I think I think Pretty big adjustments in for my homes and his health I'm still showing value in both the cheese and the over just not as much So the question becomes Do I trust those numbers? Do I trust my process enough to bet them? At this point in the week and I think I do to an extent I'm not going full there because a little bit of value on the over not enough. It's within a point of the total You know 47 is a key number if it hits 47 that's under so I'm not super anxious to go there So I'm just going to take the money line on the cheese. I either went odds at 60% The implied odds at minus 116 or 53.7 percent. That's a big enough gap for me to take it it also means the impact of a My home's injury can be bigger and I'd still show value So I have wiggle room of about 6 percentage points to be wrong To be underestimating the impact of this injury and I would still be okay And have it a fair bet on the cheese I've been On the Bengals for a while now as we discussed last week I had their money line had the spread had the under in that game Because their defense I do have that eight to one ticket for them to win the Super Bowl I think they're a very fun team that I love rooting for But I do think there's value in the cheese right now So I'm trying my hardest to ding the cheese from a home's not being fully healthy But the infrastructure Around him and by that I mean Andy Reid basically Andy Reid a good offensive line now travis kelsey stuff like that The infrastructure makes it harder to ding them more than I already have So in that game, I will stick with the chief's money line at minus 116 You can get minus 115 add up some other spots as well. So shop around as always But I'll stick to just the money line here I'm going to stay away from the total because again if they decide to go More run heavy than even I'm projecting that could skew things even more. So Sticking with the cheese money line for right now in the other game I'm also showing value in a money line. That's the 49ers at the Eagles Eagles right now to an ad point My favorite's a fandal sportsbook and I'm going to take the 49ers money line at plus 122 against the Eagles If I look at my primary model, I have the 49ers as slight favorites in this game and I'm surprised by that because That model has been fine at the Eagles all year. Um, it's shown no real issues with them I haven't been betting against the Eagles a whole bunch, especially when Hertz has been healthy It did bet against him a couple times without him, but um That model does like them and I like them personally but the 49ers machine On both offense and defense has unreal Efficiency numbers even when you adjust for not playing the toughest schedule so far And it's important to note. I think at least that I'm not adjusting The 49ers up based on what they've done since the christian mccaffrey trade or since what they've done With brock purdy a quarterback. I'm not adjusting them up. I think that Like if you're thinking realistically, they would go down, but their numbers haven't better The only adjustment in this game that I've made is Adjusting the eagles up to scrub out the two games with guard to mid to a quarterback Because their efficiency did dip there. He's not playing. I shouldn't care about him So the only adjustment in this game is bumping up the eagles But even then it still was the 49ers. So specifically I will take the money line here plus 122 The spread is two and a half My fear there is that if the eagles get up early, they can't roll We saw that on saturday night where they got a lead and then it was game over real fast I do not trust brock purdy in a negative game script It in general calcium and offenses if they're forced into a true drop back situation They do lose efficiency there. So don't trust purdy. Don't trust the scheming negative game script I don't trust anybody to stop the eagles when they're up big either So i'm not going to take two and a half and I'd also note that's important if you are Let's say you like the 49ers and the bangles You want to tease both those teams tease the 49ers to eight and a half tease the bangles seven and a half I don't want I don't want that here because of the way this game could play out If the eagles were to get up I can see that happening very easily So just the money line for me total here is 45 and a half I have it at 44.9 in part because there is some potential wind in this game So no big value there. At least not enough for me to bet it It's not going to be fun this entire week rooting against yo burrow and jillan hurts Burrow has made me a good amount of money this year hurts to someone Who my prospect model likes coming out a lot? I like him a lot personally So it's not fun to root against him But if you want action on the nfl in the conference championship week, you got to bet against somebody fun So I am following what my models are saying following where my numbers are And both models do think that the chiefs and the 49ers are undervalued. So I will go that way And ride with it as as Tough as this week may be I do think that's the way to go So as of right now the two bets and locking in this week are the chiefs money line at minus 116 And the 49ers money line at plus 122 again shop around to make sure you get the best number on those You can't also look around If you want to shop like correct matchup for super bowl It's plus 310 if andro sportsbook for the 49ers versus the cheese I would note that if you just parlay the two money lines together It's plus 313. So make sure you try both routes if you're doing that, but I think that those are the way i'm seeing things as of right now That's our first look at the nfl in the conference championships We'll have a full breakdown of both those games coming up on thursday with ryan We're getting history on them seeing if he disagrees with me. They can get into back the eagles or something We'll see how that goes But ryan last week had a great week and the entire podcast again Really good week not a good stretch the past month or so here on the show Let's recap what went down this past week here on the podcast Our thursday guest was ryan williams checking out on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w he had three and one on the week The hits for him He had the jags plus eight and a half. They of course lost that game by seven kick the field goal to cover That was good. I got the jags plus eight and a half He had the eagles minus seven and a half never a doubt on that one same thing You know they get up they can roll they're a very good offense and then the 49ers minus three and a half In that one against the cowboys last night the lone miss for ryan was the bills bangles over at 48 and a half Bengals defense played great. We had the snow in that game. So Three and one week for ryan another good week for him. He's had a good year overall So no surprise in that one all of my action last week was in that bills bangles game Didn't get good closing line value, but won everything I had the bangles money line at plus 198 Scaled with the spread where I'd profit as long as I covered Kind of wish I'd put more in the money line, but I know why I did it five was a big number Now it was part of the motivating factor did get to five and a half So I did not get the best number the money line. I believe closed at 205 or 200 um, so it could have gotten a better number there, but I always felt that we were overvaluing The offensive line injuries given how well the bangles have played through injuries to jamar chase t higgins everyone Throughout this year and that's how things played out. The bangles defense played well, too um, I also the under that game at 50 and a half it got to 48 and a half like right after we talked uh went back up to 49 and a half and closed back down at 48 and a half I didn't see it playing out the way it did But it was a touch high for me It was in part because of weather I thought it'd be there'd be more wind when we talked about that on tuesday Didn't want it being windy just a lot of snow, but either way weather was a factor in that under so Um three, you know across those bets with the scaling or if you want to go two and o based on the scaling of that one But either way I felt good or good about my read on that game Um, I thought we might be overlooking The bills issues on offense they've had recently and we saw that play out So it's good when the thought process when the numbers align and when those play out in reality as well Our guests in the player prop show last week was tom of vecchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom Not shockingly another great week for tom I didn't total these up, but he went seven and three Including one of the hits being a dallas goddard in time touchdown to plus 195 He also goddard over 51 and a half receiving yards in that same game A good one for tom kind of got by by the skin of his teeth But as they have to check out under 12 and a half rush attempts He finished with 12 exactly Could have gone awry with them going more run heavy with my home being banged up But he finished with 12 on the button. So a good hit there as well tom had jillen hurts under 51 and a half rushing yards finished in the 30s in part because of the script Which is something tom mentioned He had josh allen over 35 and a half pass attempts now He said he wanted to get to 36 and a half because it was minus 142 I believe on the over 35 and a half I'm not sure if it ever got there. I didn't check back again on sunday mornings I didn't have a lot interested in this market personally, but allen finished with 42 So if you got a 35 and a half the win You did get 36 and a half win there as well the juice changed either way over for allen and that one tom had devin singletary under 43 and a half rushing yard think he had about 24 25 on Six rush attempts, and then he had a zekiel elliott's under 35 and a half rushing yards Despite tonia pard missing the entire second half zeke's still at just 26 So easy win there for tom mrs. We're debo stable over 75 and a half rushing plus receiving yards trevor lorenz over 250 and a half passing yards and then The 49ers at defense anytime touchdown at plus 650 so 7 and 3 for tom one of the hits was a plus 195 anytime touchdown one of the misses a plus 650 anytime touchdown Good week by tom once again check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom Um on the pga side of things we had brandon gadoola on you can find him on twitter at gadoola 13 He'll be running simulations for uh this week at torey pines We'll talk to him tomorrow on the show to talk more pga Two outrides for brandon last week and three top tens for the american express Outrides were cameron young and sung jm uh john rom wand. He was plus 550. I think he's 350 out this week Which is pretty nuts Neither of those hit but uh one of the top tens did that was taylor montgomery a plus 4 10 to finish top 10 Finished fifth solo fifth. So a full win there. No splitsies on that one others were erin wise and taylor pendrith and Those is not hit but depends on how you scaled it which bets you out of taking but Nice day with montgomery for brandon. He's done a good job of pinpointing Longer shot top 10 bets the past couple of weeks. So excited at brandon once again on tomorrow's show Now that I have more time during the week. I've been betting more pga matchups, which has been kind of fonts. Maybe we'll uh Quiz brandon on some of those we have them on tomorrow as well get his thoughts on them see if i'm a dummy Had a big sweat this week with windham clark over ricky fowler clark was up two shots Had a bogie and was up one shot and then double bogie consecutive holes and Then had a rally with a birdie eagle birdie to get the win over fowler So I had a lot of fun with that looking forward to doing more of those and we'll talk to brandon again I'm already gonna read on this week's pga tour event That's all we have for today though here on the show again A bit nervous about the nfl stuff for this week, but The numbers have done very well recently this entire year. Honestly, the roi is um is is looking good. So Gonna trust it get to close my eyes see what happens But I think it'll be a fun week of nfl for sure We'll get the full breakdown for that later on this week to get that and all of our shows as they are posted Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also Check us out on the fan dual youtube page You prefer to watch the video version of these shows if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network