 okay hi guys hopefully you're ready to go I'm sorry slight delay this morning now we've made it to the end of what has been a tumultuous week if you can hear me and I'm coming through clearly please do type why good morning good morning well I just thought I'd start this session by having a look at the long-term picture and seeing really where we are and where we've been before a lot of you guys that know me and have benefited I hope from some of our training when it comes to my area which is behavior and psychology will find this very interesting I find it incredibly interesting how behavior repeats itself and for those of you have done the Amplify program over the last few years you know obviously we've been calling this rally the phenomenal rally in US equities you know something of a behavioral move and this move lower that we're having out of equities this global liquidation event there's also a behavioral move traders like investors like animals we all move in herds and what we've had over the last 10 years is something called Tina there is no alternative whilst interest rates have been at record lows whilst equity valuations have been continuing to improve asset managers and fund managers all around the world have had no alternative to buying equities you're not going to get any return from other interest rate bearing investments so there's been a huge flood into equities over the last 10 years and now what we're seeing in the last few days is a huge flood out of equities patterns repeat themselves people repeat themselves and this is you know just taking everybody by a bit of a bit of a shock but we're coming back down to levels in the S&P you know it depends how you look at it one way to look at it is saying we're coming back down to the levels in the S&P back to you know the start of 2018 and the start of 2018 was was really after a huge rally this has been a significant market sell-off certainly we are down you know over 20% from these highs but one other way to look at it is is is we're back to the previous highs in 2018 I've put here on the longer-term chart the dot-com crash you know the financial crisis that 60% sell-off in the S&P where we hit 666 and yes definitely some some reminiscent patterns here of behavior and especially of banking stocks getting killed I was looking at Deutsche Bank yesterday down in the force and you know it's really painful out there certainly but I do want everybody to take a step back and look at this from a longer-term point of view I personally believe there's going to be some opportunity in the next few months to really start looking at where to then reinvest funds after this liquidation event but it's been tough Giovanni in the room there you're saying that you know a carnage on in T-notes at the moment and this is this is definitely a concern especially after I'm sure you've seen the news yesterday about the Fed promise to pump trillions of dollars into the financial markets into the financial systems I'm gonna say that again trillions of dollars into the financial system and this isn't the response that you'd be seeing or that you think that you should be seeing in T-notes and and this really does show of that that that general liquidity event that's going on huge sell-off here in in T-notes but also you know you've got gold gold's been moving lower gold miners have been moving lower as well and as you guys know you know I for those of you who have followed Amplify for for quite a while now I've been very bullish on gold over the last two or three years really on expectation of a further need for liquidity stimulus but also the fact that US equity markets have been overvalued and that's been that's been a really interesting trade you know it's been it's been an excellent trade certainly but actually you know one of the ways that we teach you guys is to is to scale out of risk when you have an opportunity to do so and I took about half my position off of the gold miners over the last two weeks you know I still have half on and it's interesting for me to to think about going through these behavioral waves but all traders out there all of you guys are out they were going through these behavioral challenges now there's a conflict between opportunity and risk and for many of you guys this might be the first time that you're seeing it all right let's have a quick look at the the major news global stock sell-off eases after the worst Wall Street route since 1987 I really remember 1987 well that other people in the room Michael see you might remember it as well because there was a huge hurricane wasn't there the night before that global market sell-off and interestingly in a correlation of behavior there was a huge hurricane in 1987 that stopped traders being able to get to their desks which then created the stimulus and I wonder if there's going to be a similar situation here with the coronavirus I don't know if anyone's thought about this in terms of liquidity in terms of market debt if banks all around the world and I was speaking to traders in New York they're there on absolute clamp down there if traders all around the world are not able to get to their desk and they think they're not going to be able to get to their desk for the next few weeks then of course they need to get out of everything and you're going to see some really interesting market moves over the next few days honestly I can I can promise you that so yeah S&P 500 suffers fifth biggest one-day drop on on record you know look at this going back to 90 that's including 1929 three days there in 1929 1987 two days in 2008 of course World War two related in the 30s three days there as well really interesting to see that huge stimulus coming out of the US as you as I've already mentioned more stimulus coming out of Japan as well so let me talk about this liquidation event what does this liquidation event mean well this is why you're seeing things like gold sell-off and you might start to see things like treasury sell-off as well despite the stimulus is markets move in behavioral ways and now the word is out that it's time to get out and asset managers and fund managers all around the world are now going back to the mantra that cash is king until it's time to reinvest and and that behavior means that other people are starting to follow so I love this image here of throwing in the towel that's it investors out there have had enough and it's time to now liquidate all positions and that's what we're seeing in the market and this is this is despite that pump of liquidity but yeah it's interesting this is talking about the repo market this is the intervention that the Fed took I think it was was it September October in the repo market to try and help short-term liquidity to try and help facilitate short-term it's short-term loans or it might be short-term cash transfers it might be anything that that helps the financial market system function over the immediate terms this is one month and three month liquidation events but yeah I mean it's at the moment I think the market are saying it's it's not enough we haven't yet seen enough help on a on a global scale and that's why you've seen equity markets disappointing disappointed this is an important article in the financial time so you guys want to read this if you get a chance what's causing such fear in the US Treasury market and this is we're this is really a warning sign and I think we saw it in Italian bonds as anyone watching fbtps yesterday Italian bonds really really getting smashed as well strange patterns have started to emerge in US treasuries normally a safe haven market actually now starting to starting to come off as well so it's just volatility yeah same as OATs Phillips saying in the room same as the French bond market volatility in these ultra safe haven assets really can be a bit of a warning sign and I would say especially for the newer traders out there you know just just try and watch this from the sidelines if you're not feeling confident about what what what's happening on the screens there is a lot of opportunity but there's also a lot of risk look at this on the bottom right hand chart I'm showing you treasuries just breaking through S1 on the 10-year bond I mean don't get me wrong obviously they've had a had a phenomenal rally but the traditional correlations of risk on and risk off are slightly off and that's what can create a lot of confusion out there when you're trying to trade this day today quick look around at the short-term movements of the different asset classes then gold has moved higher initially after that you are United States trillion dollar promise we did just move from really 1550 back to 1600 but here I am talking as a gold bug but I think for the for the medium term gold's probably going to be a bit dead definitely worth taking some positions off on gold the correlations aren't quite doing what you might think I still believe long term as rates stay lower there will be some further upside the precious metal but but now's not the time to go full in on gold what about the S&P huge volatility obviously we stopped and had limit down yesterday then we had a initial rally after the Fed's announcement coming so here there's a limit down on the chart then we had an initial rally after the announcement off that liquidation event there it was just before five o'clock can you see how short lived that was this creates a real real issue for both central banks and governments in terms of what do you need to do to try and stimulate the economy when you have both a demand shock and a supply shock at the same time the pound doesn't make for nice viewing over the last few days all the way down to 125 I mean this is this is a phenomenal move here over the last couple of days I mean I'm going to have to zoom out on this chart go back to continuation settings really to try and find out where we might be able to find some support here in the pound if that's what you're looking for we broke through the September high that was quite an important level you can see it coming out in July as well support throughout May and June last year we found support pretty much at the 125 handle you would say but a break of the 125 handle then you're really looking at that peak there just 2444 really before we start heading down towards the the lows that we saw last year so certainly awkward for for the pound in the euro dollar well I mean yet struck it's so interesting with it I mean I haven't even mentioned the ECB yesterday such was the amount of interest and such was the amount of action so the initial move after the ECB in the euro after no rate move on the rates was higher but then of course they mentioned all the extraordinary measures which pushed the euro lower again incredibly volatile conditions and and volatility is really there's so much going on at the moment understanding how to manage yourself within volatility is absolutely key I'm going to share with you guys a link in the room just of a video that I did yesterday on that and it's it's available it's free for you guys to to watch on how to trade volatility and I'll share that link in the room so you guys have it because it really is time to manage yourself and as I'm saying in this video here and I'll share with you knackered on that video it's time to manage your FOMO because I think absolutely this is one of those things that can do more harm than good when you're seeing so much go on I myself have been having it when I look at the VIX I keep on looking at the VIX and thinking definitely that's an excellent it's an excellent trade to get in long and then I don't do it and then it's up 60% and I don't do it and it's up 60% and I want you if you're having the same experience with the assets that you're trading and I just want you to be okay with that I want you to recognize that you know we are in this period of there will be more opportunity and you know the sort of timeframe that you guys need to trade with I think is important because when you're getting these I mean here I'm looking at I'm looking at gold where we've gone from you know 1550 up towards 1700 down towards 1550 up to break through 1700 down towards 1550 to call this a rollercoaster would be a compliment to Thought Park this is this is just phenomenal in terms of this this these these market moves but what it does mean is that if you've missed an opportunity and you've missed that sell-off here you don't necessarily need to get in you don't have to force yourself to get in sit back wait and think where will the next opportunity be because certainly in this market it's full of opportunity but if you time it wrong the consequences can be incredibly dangerous and if you manage yourself poorly if you've timed it wrong even worse so so let's have a quick look at the data that's going to be out today really I'm going to be looking for any more central bank announcements like Japan that we had overnight I think the main moves I'm if you've taken Anthony's lessons in terms of how to trade news obviously you've got fundamental news that's expected this is economic data this could be central bankers talking this could be a press conference I think today the main the main action is going to be on unexpected announcements but but you can try and be prepared for those it is likely that you might for example get further commentary coming out of Scandinavia of Canada of Mexico about how they are going to take action or further action given this unfolding corona crisis on scheduled news just looking out there on what's what we've got left to come we've got some well Italian auction coming out actually for BTPs so Italian 10-year bond auction that's an interesting timing for that auction Italy let me just see if I can bring that up actually give you a quick look yeah so guys have a look this was this was the Italian 10-year government bond price not yield this is the FBTP future so Italian 10 year government bond you can see we took a hit yesterday and actually if you want to look at this on a on a slightly longer term for Italy of course I mean some real suffering in Italy at the moment and economically this is gonna this is gonna create huge issues this is this move here in Italian 10-year bonds just to remind you this was Mario Draghi's whatever it takes he'll do whatever it takes and Italian bonds and actually in 2014 the Italian 10-year government bond was one of the best performing assets to be involved in volatility since then political volatility in 2018 resolved we've had the rebound but yeah looking at it on a monthly chart this is an understandably this is this an incredibly strong strong sell-off so interesting time for Italy to look to raise further money it's gonna it's gonna be expensive relatively okay out of the United States remember we haven't caught up on our springtime clock change yet so we're gonna be looking at one third sorry 12 30 for continuous continuing jobless claims core PPI initial jobless claims I don't know yes this is gonna be important for sure but I think it's too early for the US economic data to have been impacted dramatically by by the virus I will just tell you a little bit about the US though guys because I'll speaking to a trader colleague in New York yesterday hi Steve if you're listening and he was showing me pictures of the New York subway and it is empty when I have to say here in here in London the train is still busy it's a little bit quieter but it doesn't feel like like an apocalypse at the moment but he was saying in New York you know I think maybe you know definitely is cause for concern and we should definitely all be taking precaution of course but I think in New York they're really taking it very early preventative measures I spoke to Credit Suisse in New York yesterday I spoke to Morgan Stanley in New York yesterday as well everybody there is working from home there is a lot of panic and perhaps obviously rightly so the countries that have dealt with this quickest have have been able to manage this outbreak most effectively however what it does mean for the United States for us if you're not based in the US at the moment you know this is definitely going to have an impact on on markets out there on the performance of the economy and you should expect more extra ordinary monetary measures both from a fiscal and a monetary policy point of view you should expect more to come okay guys that's it from me sorry on that economic just I'll update you on that economic data front that's it from me I hope you have a good session and I'll see you in the room thank you