 Okay, good afternoon everybody as I say my name is Michael Collins and you're all very welcome to this afternoon's very timely if I may put it webinar discussion here at the IEA as I say I'm the director general here at the IEA in Dublin I'm conscious the fact that we've got people joining us not just from Ireland From elsewhere as well Europe and indeed beyond. We're absolutely delighted This afternoon to be joined at this critical moment if I may call up that a hinge moment perhaps By ambassador Mick Mulvaney the US Special Envoy for Northern Ireland and of course former White House chief of staff to President Trump As we continue to digest Tuesday's election and what it means He will offer us a US perspective on the safeguarding of the Good Friday Agreement And I'm sure he may also offer his perspective on more current issues as well Let me formally introduce Ambassador Mulvaney who is who's sworn in as United States Special Envoy for Northern Ireland in May 2020 and prior to his appointment Ambassador Mulvaney served in President Trump's cabinet as acting White House Chief of Staff and Concurrently as director of the Office of Management and Budget Ambassador Mulvaney represented South Carolina's fifth district in the US House of Representatives from 2011 to 2017 and he was a member of the South Carolina General Assembly from 2007 to 2011 Before entering public service He practiced law and worked in his family's real estate business and he holds a bachelor's degree from Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service and a law degree from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Before I hand over to Ambassador Mulvaney just a few housekeeping issues if I may this full event both the initial Presentation by Ambassador Mulvaney and the question and answer session Which will follow are both on the record and you can join the discussion using and zooms dedicated Q&A function Which I'm sure at this stage in this zoom world of ours Everybody is now very very familiar with and I would encourage you to submit your questions throughout the session as they occur to you Are indeed after a master Mulvaney has finished his remarks Please do so then also if you wish to do so please identify yourself when submitting your question your name and your affiliation if applicable And lastly we encourage you to join at the conversation which we sure we're pretty sure is going to be a lively conversation on Twitter using the handle at IEA and with that I'm after Mulvaney Mick. You're very very welcome to Dublin virtually. We hope we can welcome you and In person at some time in the in the future But in these days that are in this we're very very thankful the fact that you're here. I'm not going to hand over to you floor is all yours Like let's a pleasure. Thanks for inviting me. I do wish I could be there in person as well It's not for lack of desire to be there. I can assure you It's a good time to have this conversation is very little else going on in the world of nothing happening in my country to speak of so It's a good time to give Northern Ireland a our undivided attention Serious though What I thought I would do if it's okay with you and with the group is is talk a little bit about my trip a little bit about where I see US policy on Northern Ireland standing now and then we'll throw it open to questions because my guess is and it could Be an educated guess we might have as many questions about other topics of the day in addition to those Revolving around US policy in that part of the world So as many of you may know if you follow the topic and my guess is if you're on this call you do That I was over for the very first time the end of September. We had tried a couple times to come prior to that Curt circumstances as it were conspired against us. I'm very much aware of the political Realm the political environment in many places in my country your country and by pure coincidence I was scheduled to come over first time I believe right on the tail end of the story funeral and Belfast made it probably not the best time for me to visit And then the second time I was scheduled to come was right on the tail end of what I think Y'all referred to know was golf gate So I was happy to finally find a calmer time and come end of September and I'm glad that I did I had a chance to spend two days in Dublin three in Belfast and then two in London Had a chance to meet just about everybody that you would expect That's sort of the top tier folks. You're supposed to meet with the exception I think Michelle in in Northern Ireland. She had been ill not with COVID I want to point out when I was there so I did not get a chance to meet with her Although I've met with her obviously seven seven several times Virtually I came for Several reasons, but the one thing that was on the front of my mind was the impact of the internal markets bill in the UK and Brexit on the Good Friday Belfast agreements I had been in in-cost to communication with with Richie Neal and his office Rich is a friend of mine from a colleague. We served together in the house He and Peter King are the chair of the Irish caucus and they're both I had just written a letter. I believe Expressing some concern over the impact of the internal markets bill on the Good Friday Belfast agreement and then Threatened I guess is the best way to put it that If things went sideways That would negatively impact a u.s. UK free trade agreement Keep in mind not only is Richie Neal heavily involved in Irish matters in the United States Congress He's also the chairman of the very powerful ways and means committee and will remain so After the election of a couple days ago Our ways and means committee has a power to approve or disapprove under current Practices any free trade agreement that we enter into so the administration negotiates it But the house and the senate approve it there for mr. Neal Is a certainly a relevant party to those discussions? Um, so I was interested in the incurred markets bill. I was interested primarily what I take into referring to as a border by accident Um, I think everybody Says the right thing certainly about uh, not wanting a border across the island of Ireland The British don't want it the Irish don't want the Europeans don't want it my concern was that I wanted to make sure that folks were aware as we were aware of this country of the potential For one by accident where no one really wants it But it ends up happening anyway Um, I put that matter to just about everybody in fact everybody when I was over then I get the best response I got to the matter from Simon Cove me When I met with him in Dublin and what I said was look Simon my fear is this is that there's a no deal Brexit. I am be kicks in The brits don't want to put up a border across the island because they know what that means The irish don't want to put up a border across the island because they know what that means But the europeans come in and say well if you're not going to control the flow of goods From outside of the union inside the union from belfast to Dublin for sake of this discussion Then we're going to force you to ring the whole island of Ireland in order to protect the european markets And that would put tremendous pressure on the irish to do something And Simon was the one who said Nick I could see it in theory I could see a pencil out on a piece of paper But in reality there's much larger more powerful levers the europeans could pull Under those circumstances than a border across the island of Ireland he said added to the point and the example he gave her was commercial aviation It goes to the heart of it goes to sticks to the Gets to the bit of someplace. It's a little bit closer to home perhaps and a larger economic impact um, and he also referenced that and made it a case for and it was reinforced by other people that folks understand The implications of something of a border across the island My concern was that while it's recent history and lived history Amongst the leaders of both northern Ireland and the republic end of the uk that there might be elements in europe Especially amongst younger leaders for whom it's learned history And it doesn't have the same sort of visceral impact as folks who who have different life experiences At to a man and to a woman everybody assured me that the interests were truly aligned not just in words But in commitment from the uk to the republic to to to brussels that Folks are aware of what a border in northern ireland would mean And what it would represent It was one of the europeans who actually mentioned to me that They perceived the good friday agreements as being one of the true success stories of europe That it was a circumstance where europe was able to solve its problems in what has so far been a a Long standing in a firm sort of manner. It's not a tenuous Sort of circumstance and they compared it in their minds to what's happening say on a daily basis in the Balkans And they wanted to preserve that victory and they were going to make sacrifices in order to do so that um that that reassured me On several levels that that that while there's still a risk of a border certainly that always is That everyone I think is paying the appropriate attention to it and that has been my message to my administration to the trump administration Excuse me and to my friends in the in congress is that yeah, we will continue to monitor it We continue to watch it. We continue to be an interested third party in it But that I think the temperature came down dramatically After my trip We talked a little bit also about the the internal markets bill and so forth and the impact of that Again, I'm very I'm cautiously optimistic as I think Most many people are in europe and in in the uk there will be some sort of deal With the with the eu by the uk before the end of the year again It was simon coveney who very clearly articulated That he believes it to be in everyone's best interest and everyone believes it to be in their own best interest to get a deal That the british want a deal the europeans want a deal and my experience and life that in politics has been That's when deals tend to get done the real difficult time becomes when one side wants a deal and another does not Um, but after talking to simon, I talked to him very early In my trip that message was sort of reaffirmed everybody I talked to said that they everyone wants a deal and they perceive it in their own best political interest to do so And that's that's that's important. I think of course johnson thinks it's in best interest more likely if he gets a deal Save us through in brussels. Um, I did walk away thinking That the the nature of the deal the scope of the deal would be somewhat limited It may cover it for example the flow of goods In terms of some type of free trade agreement What also might cover state aid to some extent and as is always the case in european discussions fishing I don't say that dismissively. We have similar issues in the united states corn and soybeans Runs sort of this and sugar runs sort of the same emotional political Gamers that that fishing does it apparently does in europe But if you can get sort of that slim down deal by the end of the year takes a lot of pressure I think it's flow of goods speaks to a lot of the issues that are raised by the imb By the way, and I did also leave With a very distinct impression that the disputes About the departure right now tend to do focus more on state aid than they do on the flow of goods I mentioned that only in that I think that's that's that's probably it's harder to negotiate But easier to sort of get your head around as a bureaucrat the flow of goods Can be emotional and so forth. It's very visible. It's easy for the media to spend state aid It's really boring and sometimes it's easy to get better deals or easier to get a deal on on boring matters Michael I can do another 10 minutes if you wanted me to but again I'm not sure how much folks want to talk about this versus the election or both So if you think it's best to throw it over to questions we can start We don't have any questions. I can I can drone on someone put more people to sleep. Yeah. Well, that's great Just we can do both. In fact, let me just Maybe get them all rolling while we're waiting for the questions to to to flow And you just in relation to the Well The election I suppose, I mean And and and your your role as as as a special representative To what extent I mean is uh, irish america and you're a very strong irish american To what extent is irish america A relevant factor factor at all in american current american politics. I mean is it At what level of support for example would would President trump attract from the very large irish american community It's a it's a really good question and a difficult question to answer For a couple of reasons Number one, there's so many of us number two When you look at how many of us there are of irish americans It's hard to it's hard to sort of quantify how many folks identify as irish americans richy neil absolutely does I absolutely do we we know our heritage we're involved in our heritage interested in the outcomes of of that part of the world And there's other folks who are probably as irish as I am if not more so who don't follow the issue So it's sort of hard It's sort of hard to quantify to put your your fingers on it. Secondly, they don't vote as a bloc They're very geographically diverse So it's sort of it's hard to say what the irish american influence on politics is hispanics by comparison Concentrated in a couple of areas still a much more tight-knit community Of course not been here historically as long certainly some of them have but not traditionally Would be a newer immigrant immigrant group Indian americans similarly lots of them not as many obviously as us But concentrated in a couple areas So it's sort of hard to put your finger on the irish american community in terms of the voting same is true by the way amongst the catholic vote They tend to be a little bit more geographically centered, which is why This year for example, we had a catholics for trump effort. I think we probably had an irish americans trump for Effort but i'm familiar with one and not at the other which tells you a little bit about the priority it got But the the irish catholics are focused heavily in the cities in the rust belt So yes, you know about boston, you know about new york for the shoes communities in philadelphia and pittsburgh in cleveland In chicago in milwaukee in minneapolis and so forth and four or five of those are you probably familiar with those being critical swing states So it's almost impossible to say i've heard some data that said that the catholics came out for trump by about 60 to 40 But he there again very difficult to quantify I identify as a catholic if i got asked in a pulse You know some holster calls me and asked me if i'm roman catholic I would say that i would and i say go to church once a week my daughter Might say that she's catholic though i been hard pressed to get her to go at christmas and easter So it's again, it's it's it's a nebulous group when you talk about irish americans irish catholic americans And it's very difficult to sort of say they vote this way or the other So i'm sorry i don't have a better answer with that. That's a long answer for being such a bad answer Yeah, I think one of the the It's been a fact over the last several decades that we've had by partisanship uh in the united states uh regarding northern ireland and all the more so Since the since the good friday agreement very very strong by partisanship I mean obviously uh both the administration uh president trump's administration through your good self and People like richineal and speaker polosi. They came out very very strongly You came up very very strongly to what extent in relation to the internal markets bill and The need for no hard border in ireland to what extent was that coordinated or was it something that Spontaneously as a word the the administration represented by you Felt that you you should do As the right thing to do by ireland as a word and by by northern ireland Yeah, your first point is excellent and worth of A little bit of discussion and then i'll talk about the specific outreach on the imd Is that there's a saying here now that there's only really two things that are bipartisan in the united states congress In fact in the united states government one is antipathy towards china And the other support for the island of ireland keep in mind in this country when you talk about irish americans It's folks who are from the island Many of our families including mine came over when The poor partition so irish america is is is is the island And support for that for the entire island is bipartisan Which is why one of the many reasons we have the northern irish andoy As to and that's encouraging by the way and i can give you an example Which is in the letter that richie that richie wrote regarding the imb i saw the letter richie did not Free clear it with me that wouldn't be necessary or appropriate That's we he's in a different branch of the government and we don't ask for permission before of congress before we do most things And they don't ask permission of the administration But it was entirely consistent with our position i talked to richie about it right after came out I talked to peter king as well david joys friend and boyle young man who thought out he was good friends with me He's sort of establishing himself in the irish american community in this country And what we decided was that the letter was very helpful the letter was more aggressive than i would have written it as And the way i described it to people both here and over there is that i consider that to be a different Assumptions a difference of assumptions on perspective I I view that letter as being written as assuming the internal markets bill was going to damage the good friday agreement and my position is that if The the administration's position is if the internal markets bill does damage the good friday agreements Then there would be impact on the uk us trade agreement. So i know it's a subtle difference I hope i'm making that difference readily apparent The letter seems to think that damage is already done Our position was that we were worried about the potentialities for damage But i thought it was very helpful because it got attention to the subject i told richie as much That he was completely comfortable with our position as an administration. So look again, both parties support the good friday bill fast agreement they do And the one thing i pushed back and i gave friend of boyle a hard time about this because he said we uh We were guarantors and i think he may have simply signed it I sent him a copy of it to point it out to him that That we are not guarantors. That's a legal term and that neither have we signed it But we have a tremendous vested interest in it And i just want to make that clear We do not consider ourselves to be guarantors that agreement that is specifically the governments of the republic of ireland and the united kingdom So just to just to clarify that we recognize our role We recognize that that we are a third party here not a first party But that our role can be to help and to assist and to be i hope a credible intermediary and interlock control when the necessary time comes But i think everybody over here gets that subtle little difference make it just if if um if it was felt that if there was a If there's controversy around the continuation of the internal market bill And uh, it's possible damage to the good friday remand Whose assessment do you think would count for most with you? Uh, would it be? Well, i mean, maybe i shouldn't even put it in these terms But i mean obviously you may well have a uk view saying it does not You may well have an irish and a european view which says that it does How would you weigh up the uh that the how would you weigh up the the country advice there? Yeah, i got asked every now and then you get asked those really really Slick kind of questions not that that is one, but i got to put a different way i was speaking to a uh A think tank in ireland in in london and they said look and it comes down to picking between the irish and the british Which who are you going to side with and i just laughed and i said look We're working hard to not have to make those kinds of decisions because these are our two closest friends in the whole world The austrians always get upset when i say that but it's true. I mean face it So, uh, i think we'll make our own decisions when it comes down to it. Um, Michael Clearly if a border goes up, um, and let's not i know we won't contemplate that because i don't think it's going to happen. Um But if it comes down to We are interested in seeing um the north Northern ireland stay stable because we think that is the key to economic success and that is the key to permanent peace In that part of of the world And we will look at anything that happens from any party that undermines that as something that we would be Pushing back against. Um, so your example is a good one. What if the imb damages at that? Well, certainly imb is a piece of british legislation. We think that there should be consequences to the british for that Let me bring balance to that discussion and saying well If it looks like the irish and the british have worked out a situation as to how to move goods across the border And the europeans are the ones making all sorts of difficulties and that leads to um to to instability Then they should bear the consequences from that. So i know i'm trying to i may sound like i'm trying to be, um diplomatic But that's sort of my job these days when it comes to these sorts of things Um, i do think this i do think this And i told my european friends this as well. I said look I i i don't i don't get the the issue on the flow of goods because they are so small The flow of goods from uk to n i is small to begin with the flow the onward flow of goods right now from uk to n i to the republic is so small any Any significant addition to that would stand out like a sore thumb if the british starts shipping rolls voices into belfast In order to avoid some Theoretic european tariff and then drive them down to dublin to sell them you'd be able to see that and do something about it Um, and that's when the europeans made it clear to me that this was that they were not interested in the practicalities They were interested in the legalities and i thought that was an interesting perspective one that i've missed I'm more of a practical person, but i appreciate that that that perspective and it has helped inform Sort of the discussions as we move forward Okay, before we just head into the questions one last one from me make before i yield the floor to All the questions that are coming in and this just happens to be terribly topical and relevant today Um, there was a very very major announcement in in antrim today that the caterpillar plant the u.s Caterpillar plant is closing down with the loss of 700 jobs. So just And in the past and you know, the united states administrations have been very active in kind of assisting inward investment Encouraging inward investment into north larland indeed. You've hosted at times of the past in inward investment Events to facilitate that so How do you think i mean a trump administration which is all of what you can speak to? Are there any steps that can be taken to better support? Northern Ireland economically in these circumstances obviously we're all suffering through the economic consequences of covet But i mean would you be open to for example some new initiatives there like an investment conference or other ideas in relation to underpinning The northern irons economy particularly in kind of in the light of the kind of news that we got today Or that people in northern Ireland have got today in antrim 700 jobs lost through caterpillar and I I saw that and I was Struck fairly close to home to me in my there's no reason for you to know this but in my Former congressional district. Um, we had a very rural area down in the very far southern end of of my state Where they had almost an exactly similar sized caterpillar plant And it was at risk of closing several times during the recession and I couldn't help but think what would that do to that community? So I that that's a lived experience for me. So um, but come back you mentioned the key word there and I think all that which is coveted good news bad news there The good news part of the good news i'll go back and forth between the two is that my first trip I had hoped that the first trip in addition to being introductory when we planned this back in may Was going to focus on like almost exclusively on economic development Um, I had had a chance to come over to northern Ireland ended Dublin and Belfast in february when I was still the chief of staff I with my president I the president I talked about a transition I was sort of anticipating becoming the northern That there's no special envoy So I had a chance to come over and sort of get a feel for what northern Ireland Thought it wanted to be in terms of future economic development and just by pure coincidence when we started talking about fintech financial technology I'm extraordinarily well connected in that particular part of the world I'm the founder of the bitcoin Caucus in in congress the blockchain caucus i'm on the board of directors of the national digital chamber of commerce going to leading Trade associations for fintech And I was hoping very much to to to introduce those folks from the u.s To the the appropriate people in northern island when of course covet hit and we still talk about those things But those are the types of deals michael that need to take place They need to get done face to face So more good news on covet is that and I recognize the last couple of weeks have been a setback On covet and if you're looking for good news and covet, you're always straining anyway But one of the messages I think I've taken away from My involvement with northern Ireland over the last six months has been that they did handle covet extraordinarily well for the first six months And it was a unifying event amongst the devolved government that they had a common enemy in covet They dealt they they got their Are not rate down very very low early on they were contained very early on and they performed Extraordinarily well and in my mind that's a selling point going forward when you're looking for direct foreign investment for inward investment Is like look if we go through this again, we know how to handle it Um, and they've done better for example than the indians and the uh south americas with whom they may be competing for some of Those fintech investments So that was all the good news the bad news obviously was that we couldn't have those meetings I'm eager to have them. Um, I will say this. I'll probably make news by saying this But um, should the president lose the election of my guess is I will not be retained as special envoy to northern island That's completely understandable and to be expected under our system I intend fully to stay involved in that economic Standpoint I can do it with my hat on from that digital chamber of commerce It would be in their best interest to find places to do business overseas and now that I know what I know about northern Ireland I'll be trying to sell that to those folks directly even Should my official duties end Okay, that actually the question I just asked there echoes a question that just since came in from furger or brine from ibex our our our employers group Very much along the same line. So I think you've covered the point there But maybe just coming to a few questions now, tony connelly whom you may know Who's the rte? distinguished correspondent in brussels he says if if Vice president biden former vice president biden is elected. What impact might that have on uk us free trade agreement? And on the internal market bill Yeah, I got to ask that question a couple times on tv over the last couple of hours Um, and I don't think much. I don't I have no idea who uh who the vice president then the Assumed the president elect would put in this position But again the policies of the trump administration the policies of the democrats who are in charge of the house Are pretty much aligned to begin with so I do not See a dramatic shift The democrats in congress want a free trade agreement with the uk They also want to protect the good friday agreements that you just described the trump policy as well So we would like to see both of those things take place concurrently. Um, so I do not see a dramatic change I got also get asked by the way, um about international trade with places like china I'm like, look, I really don't think the trade policies will change that much if donald trump Was accused of anything during his first days of his administration. It was taking a fairly Democratic view towards trade, which was a little bit more protectionist So I don't expect a democrat president to then go back in and start being the free trader in the in the in the government So no, I don't expect dramatic changes. You might hear the language change Certainly the president biden president trump Assumed president biden and president trump have different styles Different mannerisms and so forth so that the the delivery might change the style might change the volume might be different But I don't think the substance will change much Yeah The few questions in around the same subject from adam pain who's a political reporter at business insider He says, um, hello, uh, master malvaney There are reports that the uk government is going to decide its next move in trade negotiations with the eu once The outcome of the u.s. Presidential election has been confirmed He says do you think a new and no trade? A deal Brexit deal and its potential ramifications for northern ireland would be more palatable palatable for a trump administration Than a biden administration um, you know, that's the first I've heard of that um, and uh, I mean fully a full disclosure. I'm not Involved in any discussions anymore between my government and the and the british government at that level Certainly, I have my portfolio as a special envoy, but um I would discourage the uh, the the british government from from waiting to determine that the the the outcome of the election For no other reason that that that timeline might not be as quick as people think it should be or want it to be I would like it to be over yesterday But there's a better than average chance and maybe we could talk about this later in the q and a This doesn't get resolved until late november early december I'll tell why that is maybe an answer to another another question, but Seriously, if you're the british government and you want to deal by the end of the year What if you don't know who the president's going to be until january 15th? That could be a self-defeating sort of assumption So even putting the policies aside, I think the practicalities would encourage the british not to delay Yeah, yeah Simon carlswell whom you may have known um as the irish times correspondent in in washington Some years ago. Um has a question here. He says my question is on the presidential election In ambassador malvaney's view is the trump administration's decision to take legal actions over the voting in certain States assigned that the president is at least privately Conceiving that joe biden has won the election and do The president's actions risk undermining public trust and confidence In the democratic and simon knows i'm sorry that was from simon Yes, i do. Yeah, i'm simon knows he answered that question He knows just as well as anybody watching this cam and i don't mean to give him a hard time But i'm going to give him a hard time, which is lawsuits are part of close elections. They just are I was stunned at the coverage we got not only domestically but overseas when people said Oh my goodness the president is lawyering up in anticipation of a close election. I got news for you Everybody was lawyering up lawyers are part of our system here I ran for the state legislature in 2006 a little tiny piece of my county in south carolina I would have I was ended up representing 35 000 people We had three lawyers on the team and they had to do things on election day our election system Michael is people think it's this high tech centralized 21st century Sort of, you know juggernaut. It's not it's run locally It's run in gymnasiums and churches and high schools Mostly by volunteers who might have a couple hours of training machines break down people lose stuff This happens all the time the lawsuits in in in my in my election were whether or not A place that couldn't open on time because people couldn't find the keys to the gym Would then have to stay open later at night to make up for the lost time it took us 12 days After election day to determine the outcome of that little tiny elections south carolina So it should not surprise anybody that there are lawyers and should not surprise anybody that there are lawsuits And it is not a tacit admission of loss any more than it is A declaration of victory and I can assure you that the biden team probably has more lawyers involved in the trump team Because as of last week they had more money Which is usually what What translates into into lawyers as to undermining public trust? Look, I got asked what I assumed was a was a joke question by a european outlet And in hindsight, I wish I had not treated it as such and I should have treated it more as as an insight as to as to how Distorted the perception is of my country overseas. I got asked a question as to whether or not Donald trump was mounting a coup in After his question came on the heels of his speech The night of the election the night after the election when he said that he thought he had won the election And I laughed it off and I should have and I apologize for that In my mind know it is a joke No, the answer is is is unabashedly that that's a crazy question to ask And either the person doesn't understand america doesn't understand elections or has such Biased information going in that they really think that is a legitimate question to ask Every politician on the night of a close election thinks he or she has won Go back and read if you if you read the text of what the president said two days ago And then read the text of what joe biden said yesterday. They're not that different They both think they have won. They both think they're going to be proven the winner They both are going to do what they can to to make sure that the law is followed and they both want the law to be followed Judiciously and faithfully that that's that's standard operating stuff for any american politician Which you saw over the course of those two speeches. This is the different style of the two men There will be let me make these perfectly clear To the extent there's any doubt and i've been on the inside of the trump administration in an unparalleled fashion There will be a peaceful transition or retention of power come january 20 Period end of story could things get really sloppy and messy and slow between now and then absolutely They were by the way in 2000 as well yet. We managed to to work through it that will happen American election can be a sloppy ugly thing. It's sort of like making law. We describe it as making sausage No one wants to see it happen, but you enjoy the final product You're going to see that over the course of the next days if not weeks here But it is not a nothing that you see is a tacit admission of this or that or weakness or strength It's politicians being politicians doing what they are supposed to do given the fact that on one hand 70 million people supported one candidate and 68 million or whatever it is supported the other They feel an obligation to those folks to fight this out to the very end, which I absolutely expect from both candidates and make it just I propose that um, I mean is uh given given given the the Kind of the the strength of the kind of the positions of uh, both candidates I mean And and they kind of the evil steve in nature of the incredible number of votes that were cast for each candidate I mean, I think uh, biden is up around 70 million now the president is 65 66 something like that huge numbers Is the u.s. Uh capable I suppose today of uniting around A a new president if it if it were to be a president biden Um, you know, can the country come together again to us on the outside? It seems fractured to the point where this almost seems implausible or very difficult Yeah, and let's keep on it. I will answer your question I don't you can do the best of my ability, but I will preface this by saying this Tell me how that's different than britain I mean, that's different than spain. I mean, that's different than italy Tell me that's different than many countries around the world right now It's just I think spain went three years without having a government britain is still ripping it itself over brexit So, um, can we come together? Yeah, I think we can The question there's a couple questions there number one Do we want to there's still there's still a lot of a lot of concern there as to whether or not we want to But that's a that's a philosophical question that that bears a longer discussion for another day So let's stick to the topic at hand, which is the two leaders are either of these two leaders likely to unite the country. No Donald trump, uh, that's that's not that's not his style. It's not his personality That's not that's just not what he's I don't think he's interested in uniting the country at least in the way that That other folks would define it his his idea of uniting the country is is giving everybody a job Having a successful economy Having peace and prosperity worldwide and let everybody do what they want to do. That's that's that's his idea of unity On the other hand is joe biden capable of it. I think joe biden is absolutely capable of it individually But his party has zero interest in doing it He does not have the ability you've not heard joe biden make any center left arguments in this in this In this campaign over the course of the last several weeks I've heard he makes a few arguments at all because rightly so he Wanted the election to be about the president and not about joe biden So I don't fault him for that But you've not heard him pushing back against elizabeth warm. You've not heard him back pushing against bernie sanders not hurting back Against um, alexandria casio-cortez because the energy in the center of gravity right now in the democrat party is on the far left Just as it is by the way in my party. It's on a far right Which is why I go back to that question about living out. We want to unite but again i'm putting that aside I don't think that joe biden has what it takes to force his party by his own will into being a conciliatory Movement towards the republicans. I think that comes to the next election. I think 2024 Everybody says this was the most important election of our time. I think in hindsight It probably was not we end up with divided government now one way or the other 2024 will be very very interesting to me and who the democrats and who the republicans offer In that role as the great uniter I think both parties have the ability to do it if they get the right Strong leader who comes to the table with that sort of message and is elected based upon that message Um, whether or not either party is capable of electing such a person or primary remains to be seen But the short answer your question is no I don't think we see much difference over the course of the next four years We've seen over the last four and I look with great interest To the 2024 election as that possible fork in the road for the united states And um for 2024, I mean if president Trump is defeated now these days Would and people talk about them, you know, remaining on the scene having an alternative white house and Mar-a-Largo, I mean, is he somebody who who you think could re-enter the political Presidential scene in 2024 and is he that man that you're talking about as being at that point the uniter at that fork in the road Michael you've asked a good question. I've only got that question one time for the american press So kudos to you to going straight to the heart of the matter and that they put it a different way, which is After this election is over. Who is the leading republican candidate for 2024? And I think now folks are starting to realize wait a second if donald trump loses He might be the guy and I'm telling you absolutely I would absolutely expect the president to stay involved in politics And would absolutely put him on the short list of people who are likely to run in 2024 He doesn't like losing Plus don't lose sight of the fact that he will be I think technically younger than joe biden is four years now four years from now and The story is about his his energy level and the fact that he doesn't sleep and is is is uh His vivaciousness are true. That's not that's not the stuff of Of spin. He just he's a very high energy 74 year olds I absolutely expect him to be further engaged in 2028 if he were to lose this next election Yeah, I'm just another question in here from shoulder very from euro news By the way, let me finish that there's it is the by may michael There's a wrinkle in the press will love this. There's actually a non-zero chance that um That donald trump runs again in 2028 and joe biden does not you stop to think about that simply because Of his age. So there's something I hadn't thought about before this this conversation today But that's a fascinating thing to sort of sort of contemplate, but I sorry I interrupted you I don't know about you my head is riddled with dealing with the issue today You are having not to talk about 2024 or indeed 2028 uh Shona Murray from who's a frequent attendee at our events from euro news and it was just maybe Tittling a little bit towards europe If we may make it it's going beyond your immediate northern island brief, but nonetheless it all Ties in in many ways given our our own relationship here with europe and membership of the european union And it is to do with the president president trump's Attitude towards europe towards the european union specifically. She says why is uh, donald trump president trump? So apparently hostile To europe. She says he's pro-brexit. He speaks Negatively or disparagingly about chastor murkel yet. He's much more open with putin and kim young Pulled out of the power's climate accord et cetera et cetera. So how The antipathy the apparent antipathy towards europe And the fact that are who among the european leaders who would he consider at this stage a friend? Yeah, really good question. I got two answers for that. I don't know. I can't assign weight To these two things. So I don't want to make it look like this is 50 50 or 90 10 These are just two considerations as you contemplate that question number one. The president really does not like multilateral The negotiations does not like multilateral sort of not entities or that manifests itself in that fashion Always thinks that the united states ends up getting the short end of that stick because we negotiate with everybody We give the spanish what they want. They give the british what they want. We give everybody what they want That's one of the reasons he was not interested in doing tpp The trans-pacific partnership as a group but very interested in doing it one-off discussions Harder to do slower to do but he's absolutely convinced that that america gets a better deal that way Would history bear him out? I think that that that that that that that's certainly you could make that argument There's arguments to the other to the other extreme as well So that that factors in anytime dealing with europe. Let me give you an example michael That I was over in february had a chance to meet with my My counterpart at the time sir edward lister who was chief of staff to boris johnson And I was there in I think it's mid february at the time to warn about covet And the message I had delivered at that time was I said sir edward, you got to help us if you can Can you talk to the italians and he said why I said well because our analysis indicates they are the last european country that still is allowing Unobstructed unrestricted flights from mainland china into europe and this covet thing could get out of hand We need to figure out a way to get them to screen or stop or do whatever and he says we'll make that's that's that's that's their own call That's not a european call and I sort of sat back at my chair and I said sir edward Listen, I'll be perfectly candid with that's what we can't stand about dealing with europeans Every time we want you to deal As one like on this matter you tell us it's up to the individual countries And then every time we want you to deal as individual countries like on trade you tell us you can't you have to deal as a group And it's extraordinarily frustrating to us Of course he lapsed and said that was the reason one of the reasons they were leading the european union as well so So that sort of that the unilateral the bilateral mentality of an american Many americans is is is hard to is a square peg into a round hole of the multilateralist view That is is is is predominant in europe. I don't think either one is right or wrong or more right or more wrong than the other They're just different. So that's half of your answer part of your answer. The other part as a president is just a very Relationship driven person. He has personal He believes in a personal connectivity personal relationship And he just doesn't have that he didn't make that connection with angela merkel did not make that connection with macron. He did with With with forrest johnson and by the way, he did with with leo before excuse me The t-shock when leo was the t-shock Um He had that type of connection the best example I can give is of scott morrison in australia We came out very early on in the administration and started threatening all sorts of of trade restrictions on australia And then scott morrison through good diplomacy reached out established a relationship with the president And now I think that that connection is stronger than it's ever been ditto the relationship the president had with shinzo In uh in in japan proportions are left I don't know now what the status is of the relationship to the president and the new New prime minister because I'm not there, but you put those two things together It's that multilateral versus bilateral perspective of things and that focus on a personal relationship. And I think europe Using those two factors goes right to the bottom of the list okay There's another a lot of journalistic questions here Maybe I'm sure there are yeah in an hour press conference. That's right. I'm gonna have to wrap it at 11 on this michael But that's I'll get about 10 minutes left. I feel as if I'm convening a press conference here. Um, that's okay So but in any event, I assume it's the same question your supporters and members would have if they had a chance to ask some questions Yeah, I want the role they're all good questions Grandia from the journal dot ie Could I ask two questions when we see how far we get and says she says Could I get the ambassador's response to this statement from? The french economy minister bruno le marie And she quotes I'm sure the economy minister saying let's not kid ourselves. The united states has not been a frenzy partner to european states for several years now Whether joe biden or donald trump is elected by americans tonight or tomorrow Nothing nothing changes this Strategic fact the american continent has detached itself from the european Continent and maybe just on that point Yesterday on one of our webinars one of our events. We had federica. Mogherini the outgoing the former foreign policy Commissioner and she talked about the transatlantic relationship having been damaged You know Over over the last number of years Is that your sense that that's you know, you know transatlantic relations Would now need to be rebooted in some way or do you think indeed that they ever were indeed damaged? Damage is such a strong term impacted. I mean, let me let me let me do An epilogue to the answer. I just gave let's not kid ourselves if we're being candid and clearly we are A lot of the europeans are just as relationship as relationship driven as donald trump are they don't like donald trump He's he's different than what they're used to you know, he's not been this Corby he's not a george bush type of republic. He's not a barack obama type of leader he's a different kind of person and That type of person doesn't rise to Levels of leadership in europe because of a variety of cultural differences and I get that again I don't think one makes that right or wrong. It's just different Um, do I think there's been damage? No, do I think it was time to take have candid conversations about Equal and balanced treatment. Yes. I'll give an example dealing with canada Because I'm not as familiar with the details of of european trade, but the one in canada I'm sure there's examples we could find if we look hard enough between the us and europe which is that we used to have What's called the de minimis rule But if you're shipping something from the can from canada into the us and it was it was cost less than 400 dollars We didn't pay any attention to the tariff. It was a de minimis rule Everybody I think on this called knows what that means, okay If the good flowed the other way from the us into canada the de minimis level was 14 dollars That is not fair that is not equitable and I do not believe that us raising that issue Means that we are being bad neighbors bad partners that we're damaging our relationship That's that's that's just that's something listen. We did a lot of things over the course of our of our of the 20th century The post-world war history to help fight against communism and I think what we did was correct And we obviously proved to be correct because we won that battle But a lot of a lot of the tools that we use were trade driven for example We gave preferential trade treatment to folks as part of our foreign policy to counterbalance what was happening in the soviet union I think it's fair to have a discussion as to whether or not that fundamental Underpinning still is a is a good basis for international trade for the united states in the 21st century Again, I think asking that question raising that issue doesn't make us bad neighbors. By the way Let me let me push back on on what on the first part of that question about the comment from the french and say this I'll answer it this way I have felt zero animosity none whatsoever not a hint of it in my work so far in belfast in dublin or in in london The relationships are still very very strong. Is it different in france? I don't know. That's not that's not my area of expertise It's not my area of study. I have been welcomed everywhere everyone has come from the united state from from From the uk and the republic and northern island have been welcomed in my country and will continue to be so So no, I I can't speak to the larger relationships because it's not my portfolio But the relationship between the united kingdom and the united states remains extraordinarily strong And the very very and I don't want to use word special relationship But the familial relationship between the united states and ireland has in my mind has never been stronger than it is today so I dismiss The the the the comments by by the the french representative, but again, it's outside my area of expertise Okay, can I just bring you back maybe to a point you made in your earlier presentation There's a few queries in on it and I think it's something that's now running actively on twitter, but From arthur beasley in the financial times. He says hi michael. Hi mick Based on what simon coveney said to you how precisely could europe use quote commercial aviation on quote as a lever or a lever Against the uk in a no deal situation. So a bit of interest in that maybe maybe if you could just Don't know did not going did not go into specifics the one that what I remember from simon as we talked We talked I did ask the question about trade and he said trading goods. He said no state aid was a lot more important My guess is there's by the way, he also mentioned fishing as I as I commented on earlier And my guess is there's an interconnection between state aid and fishing in fact I'm sure there is and there may well be an interconnection between state aid and commercial transportation I don't know but um what I took away from the meeting was that british airways continues to want to fly from london to the continent and that if europeans got really really upset they could make that they They could make ba's life very difficult. So, um, no, I did not go into specifics of all that would have that would or would not Okay, okay We're going to get we're coming towards the back of the hour now mix so and just bring us back to we want to bring it back to the island of ireland if I may and from One from ambassador and pats on who's a good friend of ours The german ambassador here in dublin and she says well Ambassador Mulvaney have an opinion on the shared island initiative By the t-shirt at the hall martin And that's a question also echoed by echoed by mary murphy from the university college cork who says Who asks has the ambassador taken an interest in the t-shirt shared island unit? What is his perspective on the initiative and does he envisage that the us? Can or should play a role in supporting it? I'll stop. I'll start with the beginning and then I move forward is that can or should I look at it this way. We will go where we are invited. Um, this is this is But the classic example I give on for example the internal markets bill is the flow of goods from northern island to gb And I was talking to brandom like brandon. I don't understand how that's any difference in a flow of goods from north carolina to south carolina That's an internal matter. We're not going to stick our nose in where it's not wanted Sten that out of the shared island initiatives. I did talk to me hall martin about it and what I said was look We think it's great. It's entirely consistent with and and and reinforcing of the good friday agreements If there's anything we can do to help that's great If staying away is the best thing we can do to help that then just let us know that's that's that's great. That's That's listen. I talked to um, I talked to uh, richard haas About this position right after the president made the the nomination. I talked to Mitchell reese about it as well We have mutual several common friends and I said look it strikes me How how far am I off on this guys if I think that the role here is to just be fair with everybody Be friends with everybody when that went when that when that's necessary push back on everybody If that if the circumstances dictate But generally just be a fair broker try and be liked by everybody, but if you can't be be equally disliked by everybody So that if the time comes and they're looking for somebody to help out as a trusted third party That's the role we can play and they both said that if I managed to do that I would have been a success. I think by the way they've managed to do it and I can prove it to you I think Mitchell reese has been named by the irc as a representative there So there's an american sitting on that board. That's the credibility that he was he was able to build up during his time in this office um The shared island initiative is uh is something that we would support if asked And something that we would Be happy to sort of let run its own course If asked that and I know that me hall and I will continue to talk about it And we will do what we can to encourage you because we think it's entirely consistent with what we see as a promise in future for the island Yeah, just to finally make you mentioned a few of your predecessors there richard richard has and Mitchell reese and indeed there's been an illustrious cohort of people who have done this job since George Mitchell was appointed in 1995 and I have to have been in the oval office that day when he was appointed by President Clinton not having any idea of course You know from that that beginning as a word where the future years were going to lead us to be up to the agreement in 98 But I haven't or maybe I've missed it has a vice president Biden has he indicated that there is going to be a A successor if it were to be the case that he was to become the president that he's going to have a special envoy I haven't seen it, but um, maybe I don't put too much into it, but I think you should and you should let me let me put that one to rest. You should not read too much into that I would absolutely 100 percent anticipate that they would fill the position relatively quickly Um, I've been in communication, but I don't think it would be someone like brendan boil I don't think it'd be somebody from the irish Active in the irish caucus because you to a certain extent if you pick someone who is So pro ireland it Difficult to maybe under certain circumstances to get the credibility that you want with all the parties Um, so but uh, so I don't expect it to be brendan or richie neal But I absolutely expect him to fill the position In relatively short order and as I mentioned before I'll continue to serve as as long as people want to continue To meet with me in an informal capacity. I continue to have Relationships in both parties again. This is not a partisan position If the vice president were to ask me to stay on for six months until he found somebody I would happily do so Which is I guess to say I could serve in a bide administration, which again will probably make news And get me in trouble with some of my republican friends But that's just how bipartisan this issue is in the united states of america. So no, please do not read too much into it Um, if anything, I think that the bide administration Would take much if not more interest in northern ireland because of his his personal Histories and so forth. So now I wouldn't reach much into it Okay, just one final question on related to any of this You served at the absolute epicenter of global power and they Just adjacent to the body to the oval office in the fight as the chief of staff and leaving aside personalities What surprised you of anything about being there and the work that you had to do or was everything Exactly as you anticipated it should be I had the benefit of having worked around the oval office for two years The office of management budget is one of those office that nobody knows about we like it that way It is generally considered as one of those powerful places in washington dc Mostly because no one knows how it works. So we intend to keep it like that Um, and for that reason I was in the oval office interact with the president a lot during my first two years So I was I was not surprised by anything what I will remember is um, the Is the adrenaline That that's what you live on when you are there. There's a reason that the life expectancy of a chief of staff Especially in the first term is so short. I serve 15 months. I expected to serve six. It's why I was only asked to serve six That's why I was acting chief of staff Joe, uh, Barack Obama had four chiefs of staff at his first term. It looks like president will Trump will have four as well You live on the adrenaline You don't sleep much Everything that you do is on the front page of the york times and cnn and the washington post every single day And that could wear on you after a while There's a reason that presidents age as much as they do during their terms in office Go back and look at pictures of jimmy carter before and after George bush, especially barack obama and then by the way stunningly go look at pictures of donald trump I don't think he's aged a bit which is surprising to me. Um, but um, no it was uh, it was a truly a once in a lifetime experience I shouldn't say that I would do it again for a future president under the proper circumstances, but um I wouldn't change it a bit. I'm glad that I did it But the surprises now the surprises were policy and what happened around the world and not Not in dealing with the president because I had known him fairly well by how much of the job Like we're nothing if not punctual in the iiea. We're exactly on three o'clock, which is a little bit earlier where you are Um, it's going to be another long day into the night. Have you all not changed your clock yet? Have you not gone to standard time? We're still we're still we're now we're five hours behind you I'm sorry ahead of you. So I don't know what time you are the day now, but uh, I'm 11 You should be you should be four o'clock. Are you three o'clock? We're about to finish our day here nearly now, but I wanted to say thank you to you Being with us, uh, you know, just at this incredible time in american history Just to express our thanks I think in in terms of the work you've done in northern ireland and the fact that you you know america has And on a bipartisan basis has stood stood by us and stood with the issues and then kept itself interested and involved And supportive of the good Friday agreement. I think all of us on the line would would would share That that is a priority issue and just to have the united states at our back Uh looking after protecting something that's been really important for our island I think is something that would be eternally great for first. So this one. Thank you Good luck with these days. We're glad to know that you're going to stay involved in whatever capacity But um, I will look forward to welcoming you to the IEA in whatever capacity at some stage in the future Michael all the best. Thanks very much