 Good evening everyone. Thank you again for coming. This is our last great decisions program of the year So and today we're going to be talking about climate change U.S. President Donald Trump left many scratching their heads when it was rumored that he was looking to purchase the large Island nation of Greenland from Denmark Yeah, that was kind of funny. I thought too Well any potential deal seemed highly unlikely The event shows the changing opinion within the U.S. government towards engagement with the Arctic region Because of climate change large sheets of Arctic ice are melting exposing vast stores of natural gas and oil With Russia and China already miles ahead with their Arctic stretch strategies can the U.S. catch up So our presenter today is Elizabeth Wheat. She is an associate Professor and pre-law advisor at the University of Wisconsin Green Bay She also is an associate professor in public and environmental affairs political science environmental science and policy and master of science is in sustainable management programs her fields of interest our environment environmental law civil rights and liberties environmental justice international law and organizations model UN and simulations in the class her research focuses on environmental law cases before the U.S. courts of appeal Peels and experiential learning in the classroom such as model United Nations and mock trials Elizabeth has received several teaching fellowships to further develop her research on the scholarship of teaching and learning Her PhD is in political science from Western Michigan University She has a master's in comparative environmental policy from Indiana University and got a bachelor's degree in psychology at Alma College But yes, very impressive. I agree, especially the law part. I was reading through it. I thought wow This is pretty pretty nice environmental policy These are the classes that she has taught environmental policy environmental law natural resources law and policy International law global politics and global environmental policies. So let's welcome Elizabeth and That's the short list of the classes I've taught when you're in four different departments the list gets a little too long So you just pick your favorites for the bio. Thank you so much for coming out tonight It's nice to be able to be back in person again I know last year kind of put a pause on everything so it's I really appreciate everyone coming out This is a particularly exciting time to be doing this talk because on Sunday I go with 31st the conference of parties of the Paris Agreement will be meeting in Glasgow and this was postponed from last year and As of now Russia and China are not planning to send either their leaders Biden I believe is leaving. I think he's traveling Saturday for it So it's a really exciting very timely time and we'll see what you know It comes out of Paris they're a little short on the financial commitments But I'm hopeful that some of the issues that we'll cover tonight with the Arctic will be discussed at at the summit as well So with the great decisions they take much more of a foreign policy and national security approach Which I think is really valuable but I wanted to add in some of the environmental and political discussions and so give you a brief roadmap of what we're Going to cover we'll look at the environmental factors Geographic importance some of the political implications National security concerns and some I think of some future issues to be mindful of Here you see a couple of pictures that a friend of mine has taken she is getting her PhD in Toronto looking at microplastics in the Arctic So she has done her best to help me with pronunciations tonight So I'll at least deliver it convincingly even if they're terribly wrong So the gentleman you see on the right here his name is Muque believe and this is in Nunavut, Canada Which is going to be in Byron Bay and Victoria Island And so he is standing there with some dried char and you can see some of the traditional fishing There and a lot of my friends research is working with indigenous people and learning about the Arctic and sea melt there And so we'll start with the Arctic states themselves This includes the US by way of Alaska Canada Denmark by way of Greenland Norway Russia Iceland Sweden and Finland and there's a couple of different regional differences here We have the European Arctic which will be Greenland to Russia by Norway much more densely populated than the North American Arctic And the largest Arctic city is going to be in Russia at about 300,000 people For the North American Arctic this will include Northern Canada and Alaska The Arctic Council is going to be one of our really important organizations to work in this area and this includes States permanent participants working groups and observers and we'll talk about each of those This is a consensus-based organization So every member has to agree on whatever policy they're going to putting forth it was established in 1996 and Its purpose was to try and unify the Arctic states indigenous people and residents in the area This is the main governmental forum for this region Iceland is just wrapping up their time as chair from 2019 through 2021 and Russia will take over shortly So as I said, this is a very interesting time to be looking at all of these issues, especially as um Russia is really really chomping at the bit to expand their shipping The six permanent participants Are organizations that represent Arctic indigenous groups and they have full consultation rights with the council The working groups that you see listed tend to focus more on issues So you'll have a working group on contaminants monitoring and assessment flora and fauna emergency preparedness the marine environment and sustainable development For the observers they'll work largely with these working groups There are 13 non-arctic countries that include France, United Kingdom, Singapore, China and Spain among others 13 intergovernmental and interparliamentary groups and then 12 approved NGOs So you really get a lot of different kinds of people that are engaging with the council They've negotiated a number of legally binding agreements among the Arctic eight and a few of those will look at aeronautical and maritime searches You're a very remote area, right? You want to be good at finding people and finding things marine oil pollution preparedness and Arctic scientific cooperation And then lastly and what I think is one of the most important and I think growing areas with the Arctic Is the role of the indigenous people in in every aspect of the policy There are over 4 million people that live in the Arctic states northern provinces 10 percent of those are indigenous and many are distinct to the Arctic So they're only located in that particular area There are 11 distinct native cultures many of whom are dependent on the migratory caribou and the Arctic fisheries And we'll talk more about their role as we go Next we'll look at some of the different environmental factors and you can't have a talk on the Arctic without at least one pollyver picture So starting first with the landscape Give you a sense of what day and night feels like it is all daylight from early april till early september And then no direct sunlight from early october through march The warmest day which might be even cold by our standards is about 40 degrees in july And so for friends that do research in the arctic their suits Make packers fans in december look pretty tropical You have pretty high We're starting to see high temperatures in in these areas, which is a little bit concerning So even though 40 is still kind of low It's high higher for the arctic in a spring and summer 2020 We saw a really big jump in the trends and so we're kind of watching the the numbers here pretty closely So beginning with some of the climate change risk factors We know that the polar regions are really important barometers of global warming And over time we're seeing the warming continue the recent un report in preparation of a sunday summit They're now projecting about a 2.7 degree increase Remember their goal had been 1.5 And so we're seeing these trends get really really dangerous very quickly And this is going to have really big effects on marine food systems, especially those in in the arctic There's so there are a few different kind of problems to think about when we're looking at the food web and the ecosystem The first is a declining sea ice With the melting you have rising sea levels and more extreme weather events in the arctic And we've watched a lot of the the greenland ice sheet falling and this is a trend of pretty significant ice loss And it's being experienced also in alaska and arctic canada If you want to watch a really good documentary on this with just phenomenal photography They basically created new cameras to film this it's called chasing ice There was an exhibit in chicago at shed museum for a little while too But the documentary is just extraordinary to really get a sense of they do some time lapse photography We never had observed these ice sheets falling this way until kind of this documentary came out Another problem with the food web and ecosystems is the declining sea ice thickness We're simply not seeing the ice be as thick and so i'll show you a couple slides in it in a bit Where there's simply not as much ice and it's not getting as cold for as long And that's also going to have effects on on the ecosystems too Next change is changes in the air temperature and sea ice Tundras like what we have in the alaska in the arctic area are really sensitive to air temperatures And so when the air temperature is changing the vegetation is going to be affected And then also the ocean surface temperatures will be affected And so all of that is going to be tied to both the absence and and presence of ice Related to that is the snow cover The snow cover in this area has the effect of controlling a lot of the wildlife activity in the northern latitudes So when it's warmer there's more fuel availability. So you get actually more fires And so a lot of the arctic fires are going to be in the Taiga boreal forest, which is one of the world's largest terrestrial biomes We don't think about fires in this part of the world. We think of glaciers But that's sort of one of the new effects that we're observing And then we have a permafrost coastal erosion Most of the people in this region are living in these coastal zones And it's also the area where there's the most industrial commercial tourism and military activities And the air temperatures the storminess of the water Sea ice conditions of the ocean all of those are going to factor in to this permafrost changing And then the per as the permafrost erodes you also get more co2 And methane that's going to be released and so climate change is both causing the permafrost erosion And then the permafrost erosion is also continuing the climate change And so it's the worst kind of cycle that that we're able to we're seeing in this area Another big challenge with the landscape are microplastics And i'll show you a few charts next on this But these are plastics that are really traveling through the ocean currents and through air and they can accumulate in animals And they can really spread everywhere and there's a lot of risks of contaminants With traveling through soot get methane other pesticides and with the arctic specifically We're observing really high concentrations of microplastics in the sea ice Some of the highest concentrations on the planet are in arctic ocean surface water So they're basically moving from all around the world and kind of gathering in this in the spot And so the sea ice will transport it in and store it With the animals we're finding microplastics in the stomachs of polar fish blue mussels and snow crabs And so this naturally suggests issues with human consumption And now we're able to minimize our consumption. We certainly have a lot of other options But if you're in the arctic and it's a subsistence lifestyle You're relying on on this marine food web. And so you're at tremendous risk when you have These microplastics that are that are accumulating And so this one will show you how the microplastic pollution contaminates the arctic and so you see at the beginning Basically the the tighter fabrics and all the products disintegrate into the small particles from there. They're going to deposit in the sea They break down even smaller Then get picked up by the wind and thermal conditions transported through the air And then you end up essentially clouds and falling snow to trap them lands on the arctic ice and sea surface And kind of gets contaminated with the animals and the sediment there as well This one, um, you can see the These are the last decade. Um, if there are concentrations of plastic litter including microplastics So it's not exclusively plastics all over the arctic beaches and you can see the key on here The the blue dots which might be a little bit harder to see is beach But you can see the yellow ones probably the most prominent are surface So we've detected a lot of those microplastics and pollution on the surface And it's coming from other places and essentially compiling there Looking at the species, uh, as I mentioned, this is a really sensitive ecosystem And it's home to about 21,000 known species of cold adapted plants animals and microbes And the habitat itself is really special. It's going to be important for resting So walruses will leave their calves while they're diving for food. Polar bear is very similar And it's going to play out an important role for travel hunting and mating especially with polar bears It can provide protections from predators So with the really thick ice the narwhals that you see featured here can get protection from the orcas And then animals such as the arctic fox When the sea ice is melting that's going to influence their range And the tree is the tree lines will move. You also see some of the migration routes changing again for the orcas on that Caribou will also be affected by the migration routes. And this is in a couple of different ways as the temperatures increase some of the Rivers that used to be frozen that they would cross are now fine And so they'll drown in the rivers as they're trying to cross and then You also see plants that are now covered with ice instead of snow So they can't forage through the snow to get food in the way that they could when it was just in just snow So that food shortage also threats to their life with the water And for people a lot of indigenous groups are dependent on the caribou. It's really been a challenge on that And then just to feature a couple of the unique ones on here. We have the sima ring to seal There are 350 of these left in finland It's actually their only home in the world And the concern with the seals is that the snow isn't deep enough on the lake anymore to build their birthing dens And so they essentially don't have an area to to be as safe and protect So very concerned about kind of the long-term survival there And then with the polar bears as there's less sea ice, they have to travel further for food They spend more time on land and you see their survival rates decline The projections for polar bears are losing 30 percent of the world's population by 2050 And that is very likely a conservative estimate on that. The recent IPCC report is worse. And so We're you know not doing great on on that. And so there's a huge risk to those species A couple of at-risk species the narwhal as I mentioned they need thick ice for protection from the orcas They're also at a risk for effects from industrial activities and shipping So we'll talk about the shipping routes in a bit But as these routes potentially open up you're going to have more ships coming through more harm for some of these already at-risk animals And then with the walruses as they're forced more on land and on shore Disturbance from people aircraft issues. And then they're also essentially at more at risk for polar bear as a main predator Fisheries I think are one of the most important Aspects with this area. It's nicknamed the blue economy Large portions of the arctic communities work in fishing and they're dependent on it And so in greenland alone just one small part of the arctic community Fisheries are over 90 percent of their exports and a key source of jobs and food for the population The annual catch in the arctic is going to be about 2.5 million tons And 99 percent of that is from commercial and artisanal fishers 1 subsistence And so this is a huge commercial globally important area The arctic fish have adapted to this area. They're used to the temperatures But they have a really narrow temperature range that they can survive in So as the temperature of the water is changing the range of the fish is changing And this is going to cause a whole host of political issues Because there are certain laws that we'll talk about that protect the fish within a certain area And that set rules for the governments within a certain area. So if the fish move You have new fishing grounds and then those new fishing grounds are not covered or protected by any regional organization Or by any law And so it is essentially a potential free-for-all with that which is concerning from an environmental standpoint too We also potentially in this area with the fisheries have increased co2 levels And so as the ocean becomes more acidic, this is going to harm a lot of the invertebrates Especially those with shells because the shells won't get strong enough So they're not going to be able to survive in in that ecosystem There's been discussion of fishing and commercial development in In the u.s. It's called the eez just the exclusive economic zone And it really hasn't been any regulation of commercial fisheries in the arctic Other than you know some of the effects on the on the species in 2018 We do see a moratorium on commercial fisheries Sorry on fishing in the central arctic ocean And we may need more of these kinds of moratoriums in other areas depending on on where the fish move to The u.s. Has a really we have a series of fishery management councils And our u.s. Northern Pacific fisheries management council the mouthful Has a really good example of it's called this ecosystem based management philosophy Where you look at the whole ecosystem you don't just look at the fish You don't just look at the polar bears you look at the connection between that ecosystem and the animals in it And the european union is starting to adopt a similar philosophy. So I think it's a good trend You're really thinking much more holistically and less You know how much can we fish and eat okay And there's calls and we'll see if this comes up next week But there are calls for a potential fishery management and international arctic body We have a couple international organizations that do work on on fisheries issues But there isn't one focused on on the arctic. So that could be a really exciting area The shifting gears a bit looking at some of the research stations It was very difficult to only pick three because When you start falling down the rabbit hole of what these arctic stations look like it just makes you feel cold Fascinating but very very cold And I think these are really critical for understanding climate change and for researching this area And also helping with those search and rescue operations Multiple governments have permanent research stations up here So you'll see if you use arctic research station polar stations and ice stations These ice stations can be constructed on land or ice that rests on land And some my personal favorites just drift out on the sea ice So just just hanging out in your little sea ice research hut in the arctic Where it's difficult to rescue you and very cold My friend loves it. She's she loved every second of it And I was like I just kind of want to curl up in a blanket whenever you tell me a story But it's it's really cool to kind of hear what they do and a lot of the stations I know the canadians are particularly good with this. I think I'm less familiar with the us But the canadians really work To partner with indigenous people in the area So the indigenous people who have had a subsistence lifestyle play a really important role They they know the area and They're really I think important partners in in the science here A couple of highlight of monitoring assessment programs to highlight There's one called amap which is the arctic monitoring and assessment program And there's another one. It's called protection of the marine environment And those both do really cool reports. They're focused on the arctic So if you ever want to have a really nerdy science deep dive on this Check out some of the amap reports The alert stations is what I think I want to highlight. This is a canadian station It's under command of the royal canadian air force It's the most northerly permanently inhabited location in the world 817 kilometers from the north pole They signal intelligence facilities for the canadian military operations And there's about 55 full-time military and civilian personnel at that station So you can see all the different designs. Like I said, I only picked a few countries up here They just look cold We're just kind of in a room with a little bubble dome system that they have but A lot of the governments have it because I just picked three for today Beginning to the look at the geographic importance As you mentioned that the it's a really cool environmental area and so the ecosystem itself The natural resources and the research opportunities are are abundant We've observed that the shifting location of the global fish stock and of the fisheries But what's going to become really critical, especially with with russia cheering the council and russia's beliefs on shipping Is the oil and natural gas availability? There are estimates that about 13 percent of undiscovered oil and 30 percent of undiscovered gas can be found in the Arctic And so there could be a potential very decently sized revenue here With the trade and shipping as the sea ice melts new navigable shipping routes will be opening and One of the important parts and necessary parts for this are the icebreaker ships Different countries have different resources on that But these are ships that literally go in front of the freighters and break the ice And so right now you have to have certain kinds of icebreakers to get through certain routes As these routes change the i'll show you a chart in a little bit the projections are that eventually you won't need an icebreaker A regular freighter can just go through that's how the warming projections are going right now And then with some of the military and national security ones will get more into that In in the next couple of slides, but this really is a very critical area in terms of the location So this will be the sea ice changes from 1985 to 2018 So the whiter it is the older it is so you can see on the left we had Ice age see the sea ice age was up four years or more And then by the time you get to 2018 you have much much younger ice It's just not staying as cold for as long and so you can see much, you know darker bluer, which is the younger ice This is probably the most depressing chart of the night This is going to look at what they argue is the inevitability of the arctic ice melting And essentially this is melting much much faster than we had ever imagined and so It's it's been going on for for a while But the net the current projections and the font might be a little too small to read But the the arctic ocean may be ice free for part of the year at some point between 2044 and 2067 And so which is getting incredibly alarming that it would get that warm to have Had that little ice melt All right into the more political side so as you can tell from the bio I do a little bit of environment a little bit of politics And so this is kind of a blend of all my favorite things Let's start first at the un convention on the law of the sea Law to sea and arctic council agreements have been really important for keeping a stable political environment And this particular agreement will govern offshore resources So a coastal state has a right to explore and extract marine resources within that easy Can that exclusive economic zone that's going to be 200 nautical miles off your coast So up to 200 miles explore extract. Have a good time Beyond that area. It's considered called open to consultation And so if a state can prove my state We mean country if a country can prove that the sea floor is an extension of its continental shelf Then you can extract beyond that 200 miles. Okay, and so states really have to Prove quite a bit here now catch the u.s. Has signed but we have not ratified this convention And so we cannot file any claims under the law And there's a you can debate for international law people for days And why the u.s. Has not signed this and whether or not they should but when it comes to arctic disputes Not being part of this convention really could cause problems further on down the road For the convention on the limits of the continental shelf basically an extension of law of the sea Arctic states can submit claims to get a larger share of the shelf And that larger share enables you to extract more resources and fish more And this is another way to help states implement law of the sea And can also help establish those claims beyond that that 200 nautical miles The arctic strategy is from 2013 a little bit different This was a strategy under president obama And three key areas of focus to dance u.s. Security interests Pursue responsible arctic region stewardship and strengthen international cooperation And for president obama cooperation with the alaskan datives and indigenous populations was really important and When he visited in 2015 The u.s. Was the chair at that point the arctic council adopted a scientific cooperative agreement That both recognized climate change A little bit late on that one but better than never And emphasize the effect of the changing sea ice on the area Particularly on indigenous communities The obama administration really had pushed discussions of environmental justice But we've never really talked about it that much in the arctic context And so that was a really big step to to note that The council's role changed Largely with finland in in 2017 Because that is going to coincide with the trump administration in the united states And the interests will shift dramatically with the arctic at that point And really shifting more from a diplomacy track to more of a military security emphasis In 2019 secretary of state pompeo Said the arctic was an area for power and competition, especially when it came to russia and china And this is a really big change from diplomacy and indigenous research And pompeo will call for a much stronger engagement in the arctic And then the part you've all been waiting for the greenland debate So the arctic is an important area for missile defense capability Surveillance infrastructure and some strategic forces Okay, there's potential for a navy in the coast guard, but we haven't the us has not invested much there yet In 2019 the trump administration discussed wanting to buy greenland Later claimed it was a joke But we see a few efforts after that make you think that It wasn't really quite as much of a joke as they they had kind of played it off to be In 2020 there's a guidance document On safeguarding the arctic that includes equipping a new fleet of icebreakers Now if you don't care about an area why are you sending icebreakers? In 2020 there's a new state department arctic coordinator that's put in place This one I didn't really take issue with because the us plays an important role in the arctic We should have had someone coordinating this before I'm just suspect of the motivations a little bit It's the end of the day. We don't buy greenland But we give 12 million dollars in aid for economic development that focused on developing energy natural resources expanding education and increasing tourism So we're still invested, but we didn't buy it. So it's kind of where that one lands And then talking about a few of the political considerations There's a lot of interesting countries. So I just picked a few here As I mentioned the location of the arctic is really important and during the cold war This was a critical area for the superpower standoff, right? And has played a really strategic role in us, soviet union now russia competition So we will start with russia They have thousands of miles of territory and coastline about 24 000 miles of coastline above the arctic circle And two main economic interests for russia. They are well positioned to exploit oil and natural gas in the region 70 percent of russia's reserves are on the continental shelf most in the arctic So there's a huge huge area for russia Their second economic interest is they're positioned very well with geography and logistically with the shipping routes So because they are right there, they're going to know about the shipping routes can develop those And as those as that sea ice declines, they're going to get first crack essentially at As the new routes open up and the projections are they would expand in cyber area first So most remote area not terribly profitable at the moment really could change as as these routes open up russia wants to become much more of a maritime trading partner And to reestablish their military power and this would would help them do that They have a northern fleet that's based on the cola peninsula And they also have strategic submarines, which are really important for their status as a nuclear power So right now they're relatively unobstructed with establishing power in in the area And they have a monopoly on guided ice breaker escorts through that northern sea route So they have basically the world's largest ice breaker fleet if you want to go through there You're most likely going to have to use a russian ice breaker Not all at all shady though. They have helped with a really cool research expedition called mosaic And this is a partnership with 20 different countries including the us china and russia That's a really exciting research partnership But most of their interests in the area have been economic and in military You might be surprised to see china on here next and wonder if you're rusty on on your geography for a second China is not considered an arctic state and they are largely excluded from politics in the region But they want to be much more involved And so their closest territory is actually 5 000 miles By sea from the barren strait They have an observer status in the arctic council Their new ice breaker is also working with that mosaic project And they've commissioned a nuclear ice breaker As of 2018 So now russia and china are the only countries to have new to operate nuclear ice breakers And this is considered to be part of their polar silk road initiative You may have heard of china's belt road initiative. This is the cold weather version And so it's a 2008 collaboration with other countries to develop arctic shipping routes Could cooperate with russia waiting to see on that But it's a big part of their their long-term interests in minerals and arctic energy resources For canada canada controls the northern Northwest passage they're considered an internal territory goes right through the middle of canada They coordinate very closely with the u.s. That's been a it's been a helpful partnership there They have a number of research ice breakers And these have really state-of-the-art research capabilities on the ships themselves A lot of joint efforts with scientific cooperation information sharing joint military And with canada they have also been developing sustainable shipping lanes through the arctic waters So really thinking about how you can minimize the environmental harm as you go through And they've committed to decreasing the use of highly polluting Heavy fuel oils in the arctic waters And these are going to be things that as the arctic opens up We really want to be keeping in mind to minimize that risk for those ecosystems And one specific canadian example That anyone with young children or grandchildren knows about is norad also tracking santa When they're not tracking santa, it is the north american aerospace defense command And this helps monitor and detect Things in the airspace and can warrant up attacks. So it's a good You want canada to be on your friend be on your good side with this one But with denmark and greenland In addition to what we already mentioned These last three countries are in an interesting position because they're all in nato They're all receiving economic interest from china And they're all feeling a lot of pressure from russia with their military buildup Greenland is a really unique political situation. So they they control their own domestic issues But the danish government controls foreign affairs and defense And over time china has been heavily investing in mining airport construction and real estate And so there's international concern over whether this investment from china could lead to blocking nato later on russia also uses the airspace And that's put a little more of tension i think for for everyone in the region And there's been an increase in us diplomacy as you saw with the greenland discussion But the us has also encouraged denmark to increase its own military and push back on The chinese influence and so we reopened a us consulate in greenland and then gave the aid that i mentioned a bit earlier russia has upgraded its airbase in the area and So you sort of have the russian airbase competing with the the greenland airbase And they're both important to Missile defense systems, particularly the us one For iceland iceland has no standing military of its own. So they rely entirely on the us and nato for their defense They have also expanded their diplomatic and economic ties with china Geothermal came in 2012 free trade 2013 more scientific research in 2018 All of this has led up to chinese investment now making up 6 percent of iceland's gdp and 11 percent of greenland's gdp So when i say china is investing they're investing millions and millions into into these countries And in 2006 us military troops left iceland and basically said iceland needed to have its own national security policy But in 2019 the us pentagon gave money to expanding and upgrading the runway in facilities of the airfield You see a common theme with these airfield expansions And then in 2019 we get a bit of a diplomatic snafu With secretary pompeo and vice president pence pence claimed that iceland had declined to participate with china and the belt road initiative When really iceland hadn't made a decision at all yet And so you get this big announcement when a us leader speaks it's going to get global coverage And caused a whole host of diplomatic problems both for for well for everyone for china and iceland and the us on that one russia is not going to miss out on the party either russia has a history of supporting iceland with money And through economic aid and trade as well. So you know a lot of moving pieces in countries fighting over the the same spaces norway is a little bit different So there's a archipelago in in norway that is between the north pole And and norway And there's a treaty that's going to give norway sovereign control over this this area. It's called the svalbard svalbard archipelago And the treaty that has been signed governing the space Gives nationals a certain rights to access for mining and that sort of thing But it's a very contested treaty and the legal aspects are Heavily debated in the court. It's especially with maritime and fishery laws Because remember you had to find that zone of where you can fish and who owns it and as you imagine russia Does not agree with norway's decisions and boundaries And so russia has established a settlement Uh around we used to be a still functioning coal mine on the archipelago 20 of the population lives there And so you have russia arguing with norway about what to do with the space China is also complaining about activities that restrict economic exploration in the interest of protecting the environment And then norway tries to establish a fishery protective zone That define the zone is defined by historic activity, which is great until the space changes And so you get a lot of disputes going through This particular area and norway wanting more presence in the arctic So this will show you some of the different territorial claims. Um, the sort of Orange-ish tanish is a russia And then the green is norway. So that's probably the the biggest dispute there And then the red line is that nautical miles on it mentioned All right looking at some of the shipping and oil spill risks As we have more shipping routes, we also have the potential for more oil spills And the u.s. And coast particularly the coast guard in noah Are working on these joint scientific research expeditions And doing oil spill drills to see kind of how they they should respond a lot of gis mapping in the area And there's a really cool program called the arctic environmental response management application That will look at the unique ecosystems and think about how to mitigate potential spills But with these oil spills, you have a really sensitive ecosystem that's at risk It's a remote location. So it's an incredibly long distance for first responders to get to There also are not enough ships with the appropriate cleanup equipment right now And then the weather changes whether conditions will change very fast and are very extreme So all of this is going to combine to being a very difficult space To have a have a spill and to try and clean it up This will show you the different arctic shipping routes and so you can kind of see where those are are changing The red is a northwest passage blue is the northern sea route and then you have some Potential other ones that are coming up to And then this will show you the projection Of changes to the shipping routes over time. So on the left you can see by 2020 the routes over the north pole Could open for ice breaking cargo ships. I'm sorry 2030 Um, I'll operate in ice up to four feet. But then the one on the right. I think is really shocking This is 2045 to 2060 and it says the decline of arctic sea ice under moderate warming Mind you were experiencing high warming, but if it was just moderate Ordinary cargo ships could go directly over the north pole This is a dramatic change in in these potential spills This is a website. I encourage you to check out and and click around And it gives you an example of an oil spill in this particular sea You can overlay different layers of whether it's an extreme spill What species are affected so you can add these different layers of layers of birds layers of whales And then look at all the different factors of what's the risk of low level concentration of surface oil Shoreline impact water contamination and then what the response itself would be And so I think it's really powerful to see those visuals of just what a spill could do for all these different factors And the world it's a world wild I fund that has this particular site that I think is is really good And so some things to think about for the the future Arguably climate change is I think the biggest threat The u.s. Pentagon hasn't has declared this as a threat We're going to hear a lot of talk about this. Hopefully in the next week There'll be a news battle between the infrastructure bill and I think what's happening in glasgo There might be potential cruise options as well on here people do alaskan cruises This could be a potential, you know economic growth there as well That we know the fisheries are moving and that's going to have Obviously ecosystem impacts, but also economic impacts with the the region And the countries that are dependent on them and then the global warming with melting sea ice When you watch that movie chasing ice, like I said the photography is just unreal and Another really good one that I think gets on on this with the shipping It's called freightened like shipping freight And that will sort of talk about the implications and I think environmental impacts And so both of those are really good documentaries to see more about how climate change is affecting this But also what the shipping industry looks like in in general We're hearing a lot about that more now as we've seen the pictures of all the ships that are backed up on the ports And sort of the shortage is there That's you know with limited shipping routes right now These problems could all get much much worse with the supply chain and the environmental impacts And then the next kind of big area to think about the effects on indigenous communities Ecosystem based management is becoming a much more dominant philosophy which The the environmentalist part of me is really happy to see because I think it does a better job at Just looking at the science or just looking at the social or economic factors It looks at everything and thinks about how you manage the ecosystem And this is the philosophy that the Arctic council is going to be using and so they're looking at biological physical components of the system including humans sustainability of the ecosystem How we can integrate the current state with some of those economic assessments And then really valuing the cultural social and economic goods and managing the human activities And so it's not prioritizing economics over anything else not prioritizing the fish or the water It's looking at all of those together Then we get into the biodiversity effects of of the shipping. We know with more shipping There is a greater risk and almost inevitable increase in oil spills And so how are we going to mitigate those? How are we going to prepare for our response on those? And then the habitat destruction And so we had like a hack and pull over a picture. So now you have a set pull over a picture with sort of the foraging With all the waste here, but I think there's a lot of you know potential for arctic research We saw the research stations and what I find really powerful as someone teaching in this area A lot more students are interested in it, especially with microplastics and programs like my friends at toronto some of the top Arctic and climate change experts in the world are now looking at the arctic and so You know, she is able she's actually my very young She is one of the IPCC peer reviewers because she's had so much primary data experience and such good You know essentially experience during her her doctoral program that universities are really investing in this and I think there's been a big educational commitment and More attention. I don't have to necessarily convince students. This is important They're more much more likely now to come to my class wanting to know more and thinking about it already So I find that encouraging. I'm hoping that you know, we see more of these joint initiatives and that They give me some good cooperation. I think and it's not just diplomatic fighting or military disputes with some of these bases The military security is always going to be an important aspect and I can't you know shy away from that The tone of the u.s. Is very different now with the by the administration And so we'll see where that goes. We have a very different secretary of state Different experience different philosophy And you know, we'll see, you know, what happens with that right now The senate is holding up a large majority of our diplomatic appointees So the cabinet's been appointed but the deputies and some of the other staff Are being blocked in the senate and so the u.s. Has a big diplomatic gap right now But at least from the leadership and through the cabinet. We're seeing a much more I think open tone of we're going to talk about this. We're not going to shy away from it But we're going to talk about it and not just threaten to bomb you all the time And so I think different shift, but we're only 10 months in 11 months in or so We'll see what happens this week with with climate change summit Last one I wanted last picture last slide for you. This is a She's 18 years old at the time a young brunish woman named Maya Rose Craig And she's a climate change advocate and a very talented ornithologist She went on a green piece arctic expedition to investigate marine life in the region This was the most northerly youth strike ever And so as you can imagine how much further north can you go right? Leave you with other things a powerful quote from her She said I'm here because I want to see for myself What's at stake as this critical protector of the planet? The arctic ocean melts away at a terrifying rate Today myself and fridays for future activists from all over the world Are standing up to call for urgent action against climate breakdown And so I think she it's you know, it makes me sound so old to say this, but When I see teenagers like Like Maya be so passionate about what they're doing. I think it gives you a little bit more optimism These are huge problems and no one person is going to be able to fix that no one country can fix it But I think when you have people that are so passionate and so dedicated to learning more about it You know, we're not in in terrible shape and I think there's a lot of potential to make some progress in this area in the future open for questions So then um, I'll bring the microphone over to you, please And then if you take your mask off to talk so the microphone can pick up your question So who has a question Me personally or I'm like, no Jesus I think the most that I and I probably learned the most from For my friend who does her research up there She's doing a lot of the core samples just to kind of see the projections with the change It is hard to find. I think some of the optimism where I see the most promise is Some of the indigenous partnerships Because that's a voice that hasn't been included fully. I think at the at the table And so I think you have people who have lived on the land and are Connected to it in very different ways and rather than have the I would presume largely white scientists coming in and telling the indigenous people what their land is going to be like You have more of a partnership and a collaboration And so I think those research stations and so my friend is doing her research in Canada So I hear the most from the canadian perspective but um, I think you know, even in the us we're talking more about indigenous voices and indigenous inclusion And that I think is going to be a critical step going forward for learning about this area and I think just being more attuned to potential changes that you know, they're going to know if the caribou routes are changing They're going to know if the fishing isn't the same Um, and that can clue us in much faster than long term data gathering might so that to me I think is the biggest growth area, but um, the reality is that it's melting really really fast And the global community is not doing enough yet I get excited for the conference of parties every time it happens. Like I love the stuff I'd watch it all week if I could but um You know the one of the headlines I saw this morning is that the commitments that the country's made To the paris agreement. They're not going to meet those financial commitments for at least another year year and a half And that's just the money that we pledged to a level that was already too low Um, and there's some good stuff that's happened, but we have got to do more and I'm I'm concerned with china and russia not going next week Um Zhijing ping I do not believe has left china since the pandemic And so we're not sure how much of that is just pandemic precaution and how much of it is I don't want to deal with climate change. Um, and Putin's Putin. So he just He's not going I just wondered if you had, um, some good news resources for this topic that we could follow Yeah, I think, um The arctic council is going to be a good source The amap let me get there. There's so many acronyms on this one. Um, I believe it's the arctic monitoring You should make sure you get the right acronym for you. I think it's amap Um Somewhere early in the notes here Because it's a specific arctic one the ipcc is the um Intergovernmental panel on climate change, but that is not exclusive. Yeah, it is amap It's not exclusive to the arctic, but I think ipcc's were good But yeah amap is the arctic monitoring and assessment program So those are probably my go-to ones Yeah, it's difficult to Believe that there are people Who still do not believe in climate change We've had some in our government Yes, absolutely How far back have they kept Conditions that they've Have We would actually know hits are Ever been a time in history when it's recorded that There has been this not this kind or this severe but Difficult times to think that Certainly there might be a climate change. Is this the first? It's not the first. I'm not sure exactly when they started tracking the arctic Some of it goes back to actually when they were looking at the ozone hole And started getting more more data in more difficult conditions on on that I'm not sure when the arctic monitoring started specifically. It's a good question What I do know in terms of the trends and I think back to the the chasing ice documentary We are observing it at the fastest rate in in known measured history and some of it Were the scientists that took part in that documentary Developing cameras that could withstand the wind and the climate which was a huge obstacle And and measuring it so they would go and like place stakes They would set up time lapse photography and you literally watch the glaciers melt But it's expensive to do the research and it's taken a long time to go up there And I think have the technology and equipment to survive I mean it's the You're talking at least decades. I would bet at least 40 50 years on the on the really low end But I don't know kind of when they they started that specifically but For the living glacier people and climatologists now They're really alarmed and they've been alarmed for a while But now they're like no really this is the worst we've ever seen it It is the fastest and it is the most extreme and I think people are paying a little more attention because of some of those military options and the military implications And part of me like I don't care why they care. I just want people to care If it takes military threats and and using russia as a boogeyman fine You should have cared about if the environmental effects Or the endangered species from from my standpoint, but you are seeing more interest now Because of of russia and sort of the tensions with the u.s. And russia in recent years So like I said, you know means in the ends are a different story on on this one, but I think russia may push Discussion and action on this area not necessarily for climate change reasons But more for potential national security reasons. So we might get there a different way But you know even some of the emissions stuff one of the big things they're expected to talk about Next week are some of the global emissions Because this last year was such an anomaly with covet because you saw air quality at record good levels In in some of these major cities because people stayed home and they weren't driving You know la and beijing are two really good examples of that and so They're going to have to figure out how to build in this last year as a data anomaly Rather than a representative. Oh, so I see it's getting better now when really it's not we just were in the middle of a pandemic And not going anywhere So we'll kind of see what they they look at but it also I think showed the potential If we can get our emissions under control if we can change transportation options if we can become more energy efficient There's a lot of potential for reducing some of the harms or at least slowing it down Can you tell us exactly where the research stations are located and what and no Probably not. I mean, I honestly I do not know Partially because the names are very tricky to pronounce but there are a number of them So I am not sure I said I know the the one None of it was one with the very first picture with the fishermen That there's at least one canadian station there, but I am not sure on the exact locations And what indigenous People are involved in these It really depends on where they are in the Arctic because you have A lot of different indigenous populations that are there and so it just sort of depends on the community that you're working in Um Yeah, it just there's just a lot of variation on that one. Wow. Yeah It wasn't an error that I you know, I guess I didn't know a ton about indigenous groups up there I was much more familiar with the us first nations Breakdown and I just did not know as much about the Arctic Especially with different countries and and you know different communities So it's been really cool hearing about the stories and that's kind of my friends A lot of her research is looking at indigenous partnerships with scientific Education, so she's Yeah, I just I I know she goes to the Arctic to cold places and none of it was one of them She yeah, she could I just didn't get names of kind of where she was but yeah, she We could yes, I just don't have the names of her city. Her name is Bonnie Hamilton She is also one of the national geographic I believe it's a research scholar. She's just got another cool title. So What's that? Yeah, she's she's done she's one of the IPCC reviewers now and it's done a lot of really cool work But she's studying under some excellent one of the top microplastics people and at Toronto and so Yeah, so I mean she's from Michigan and yeah, so, you know, she's like I'm going from Michigan to Toronto But really really cool opportunities and So this is kind of where her her heart has always been with the with arctic research She thrives on the cold I had no idea the scale, you know, sort of how big the research opportunities were and multiple research stations so she's actually gone out on research ships and been at some of the stations and you know, they She does a lot of modeling a lot of time in the lab And she starts using science words. I'm like we are parting ways here I'm your policy friend policy of law friend I just was thinking kind of chuckling about her because she's like a Greta Thunberg For the Arctic. Yep Um, which is young people It's just really exciting. I think that these young people who really care. Yeah and Can obviously she's put her caring into action And that's not the coolest part, you know, and I think If Bonnie watches this later, she did watch, you know, I talked about this in a different capacity And she I think She's like, I'm just doing what I love and I don't think she would necessarily agree that she is such an inspiration But you know, I never knew anybody who Actually went to the Arctic and researched. I had read about it. I had heard about it I had never talked with anyone about, you know, just little things like how you suit up to go outside And and what it's like being in that remote of an area And what it's like to do an ice core sample and to spend time in the lab and just Really basic things you can talk about this in the abstract, but it's um It gives you a different perspective to hear from someone who's actually going into Into these areas and seeing the effects first hand and You know and has the scientific knowledge and I think the passion to to be a vocal advocate to change it and hopefully make it better Well just for a plug for our generation There are many of us that have been very concerned and very committed over the years But I think that the advent of social media and the ability to travel so much easier and women getting into jobs that they never had Before yep makes the young people more visible, but some of us have really been We've been there absolutely We've been here and we've been very concerned Um, this might be a dumb question, but are the oil spills that happen up there? Are they from tankers that are hauling oil or is it freighters that run on oil and Their oil for some reason gets released I'm not sure on that one. I have not looked at the breakdown between those different different types of spills I'm not sure how much oil is transported through that area, but given russia's resources. I would imagine it has to be some But that's really I've never thought about looking at the two separate spill stats on that one And I guess the reason I was thinking about it was that you said china and russia had nuclear Energy and I'm you know, you know 20 years ago 30 years ago I was up at the nuclear plant in two rivers protesting and I don't want to give any kudos to either china or russia But wouldn't if if it were fuel that we're getting Spilled then wouldn't the nuclear freighters really be better Your attention, please 30 minutes and all services low hand Including check out another computer services, please check out all materials prior to that time It was well timed Like it did it did capture my attention Yeah, I I thought this was the interruption on that one. I think that yeah, that would be interesting I don't know in terms of the risk with a nuclear spill. I mean nuclear could be safer but at the same time not knowing Anything about the sort of safety and construction that how much confidence do countries have in russia and china having safe nuclear ice breakers I don't know I think people are concerned that there are first are nuclear ice breakers and second that those are the only two countries that have them Because we just we just don't we don't know safety reports. We don't know kind of any any sense of If they're better or or not. I'm kind of mixed on it Energy is the toughest unit for me to teach because there are no good answers There are drawbacks and risks for everything even for solar and and for wind and little on fossil fuels. So That's a it's a tough one. Like if I had to pick between You know diesel and nuclear nuclear, I don't know. I'm like I'd rather your ships not be there That's kind of my third choice on that one But that's going to be something they have to deal with, you know We don't have agreements for these some of these areas And if they open up that's going to be a question they have to wrestle with Are you going to allow nuclear freighters to go through yourselves to go through? How are you going to regulate them? What safety precautions need to be in place? What monitoring needs to be there? We have you and you know regulatory agencies that can do that But I don't know to what capacity russia and china have cooperated with those right and my third and last thing is Every time there's a new administration in the united states Everything gets changed and I you know, I mean trump was so close to getting You know gas drilling or oil drilling In pristine areas and you know got him out just in time so that didn't happen But in four years, which is going to be coming up Sooner than we like Is that that could change again? How can we keep things? you know Right and stable in our minds. Yeah, I think and I think that's for the biggest challenge was just The u.s. System of government and the way we're designed The first big thing is you know, it's quite honestly as long as the filibuster is around It's going to be really difficult to get any of that passed Because we're seeing legislation that in some cases has 80 90 public support Getting blocked by republicans in the legislature because they're concerned about political implications for next year in 2024 Even though nearly the entire country like taxing You know people who are making millions of dollars is one of the most popular policies in the country right now and and politicians are worried about that Now harming their their political careers even though we know it has support So when you get into environmental areas that can potentially be costly or cost someone money like restricting an area for drilling It's just it's tough to get it through and over time. We've seen much less bipartisan work and largely under under Senator or senator minority leader McConnell You've seen this refusal to discuss and that I think is what concerns me the most that you know, I am not Lisa Murkowski's biggest fan But as senator of alaska, she is incredibly passionate about the area's resources And she was willing to come to the table To at least talk Now she still was again going to lean a little more on the extraction wolf hunting side than I would have preferred But I really respected her being part of that conversation and I think The only way to sort of get some of those legislative changes are to vote the people out who don't Believe in them who don't believe in climate change and who don't want to see these environmental protections That gets into more gerrymandering issues and Fells down a real deep polycyer rabbit hole But I think between between voting and the filibuster. Those are the two steps that have to happen Before we can get some of that more enduring legislation But it's a different political climate now than than when we had the clean water act or clean air act and incredibly bipartisan You know highly supported legislation. We haven't had those in a while It's been much more politicized really since Reagan It's kind of when that that was the turning point with his administration But I think you can get back there. But like so the filibusters got to go And you've got to have leaders That are committed to making the bold changes that you need to have made and I'm not sure we have enough of those right now We'll see what happens with this infrastructure bill and how the wind inspires jill mansion tomorrow. Who knows? Christian cinema is another fun one. Who knows? So, you know, you can't assume that any one party member is going to vote a certain way but I think voting is where it starts and putting people in there that are committed to Making the changes that we need to see made Any other questions? Nope It was a good one to end on that's great. Thank you. Thank you very much Thank you, Paris