 Okay, very good morning. It is Wednesday the 5th of February Don't forget if you are watching this on YouTube to subscribe to the channel for our daily updates and live events that we'll be covering But getting straight into what we're looking at this morning a quick update on Coronavirus of course, but we're gonna have a look at Tesla. I'm sure you would have read the headlines by now I've seen the stock price movement Yesterday, but we can have a quick conversation about that We're also going to talk about oil prices given the the technical meetings that's been happening with the OPEC plus Countries and where does that stand at the moment? we're also going to have an update on the Caucasus in Iowa What's the situation there? And is it important for markets? There's a couple of corporate earnings coming out of Europe to be aware of this morning BNP Paribas Siemens and and the like Starting off though before I go into in the graphics are siding me at the moment Let's just have a look at the overall sentiment on charts as we reside this morning and the Dow finished up about 400 points yesterday, so The impact or fears if you like of the the coronavirus seem quite a distant memory in the rear view mirror nowadays albeit we continue to Remain somewhat vigilant and monster the situation but for the moment the fact that it seems to be still Somewhat contained to the borders of mainland China seems to have downplayed The situation for the moment at least and the fact that it hasn't turned into a full pandemic as yet as being welcomed by the market so Elsewhere just having a look at things oil prices Have been just steadying out overnight The ellipse that I've got on my chart here Signifies the release of the API crude or infantry to which we had last night Which I will show you the numbers shortly But that was when we defined the kind of low point. We saw a bit of a pickup overnight in Asia and probably a move in sympathy because Asian equities actually saw their first back-to-back Rise that we've had since the virus outbreak begun about two weeks ago So Asian markets continuing to pair back Chinese market specifically from those heavy losses that were seen on the Reopening of trade and that big gap down we had at the beginning of the week So in tandem a little bit of a relief oil prices But that doesn't detract from the overall trend of course in oil Which as you can see here over the last couple of days has been lower On a daily continuation. This was that chart we were looking at Yesterday so if I quickly just remove One of my camera feeds here so you can actually see the full chart So this encapsulates then they're much more of the bigger picture looking all the way back to the end of 2018 So really a good two-year snapshot of price movement and oil to give us the kind of extremities of the highs and lows of the Trading nor for 75 to down to 42 and where we are at the moment now We talked about this a little bit yesterday, but you can see the various annotations on this chart And you can see the impact that coronavirus has had on the demand which we discussed many times the question mark Of course with oil prices really from here is Is what OPEC plus are saying enough to Mitigate this downturn and cause prices to go back up now this time yesterday We were talking Prices looked like they were rebounding slightly as some of the rumors were swirling about the potential 500,000 up to 900,000 val per day cut, but seemingly This morning according to the press Russia and Saudi the two main players within that pact At loggerheads and what's the best step forward obviously for Saudi Arabia if you think about it for a fundamental perspective They've got a long-term plan to implement in their vision 2030 which requires them to diversify the economy and Their revenue streams which means that they need a high degree of income Because they're kind of break-even point if you like for their for their government spending has increased So they would like prices definitely much further north whereas Russia doesn't have quite the same kind of pain threshold on a price point and so they The latter being a little bit more reluctant to just pull the trigger and cut supply just yet So we continue to monitor that Quite closely Otherwise the other assets gold up a little Recovering from some losses that was seen late yesterday Just after we had that big push up on Wall Street obviously a pretty firm finish across the major indices and if I was looking at T-notes pretty similar story. I wouldn't say the gold and the T-note move being up 10 bucks and six ticks respectively is a Form of the kind of risk appetite for this morning. I just think it's a bit of a natural retracement from some of the move With some profit-taking on the shorts yesterday in gold and a 10 year currency markets The the Dixie's just taking a bit of it a knock more recently as Europe has come in So as you can see you're a dollar and cable on the top left looking a little bit more perky this morning I'll leave Sam to go over the technicals, but from a fundamental point of view. There really hasn't been anything that I've seen Regarding the UK that would be particularly That you could pin this strength that we're seeing at the moment here in cable Just having a quick look though on this cable chart just in regard to the highs that we were seeing yesterday So we're just testing that at the moment and you can see this in previous other points of you know Just quite obvious from support resistance point of view where we are at the moment So be interested to see how we play out and Quite interested to see as well As I said Sam's going to talk over this more, but let's have a look at that fib Retracement of where we are at the moment and we're right on the 38 to here, which was yesterday's high So pretty significant point here if cable can get above that it might well open up a little bit further more upside But we're just seeing the round the first tests of that right now that fib retracement from the high that we had At the the day of Brexit But then the gap down as the red lines were drawn and that big selloff that we had on Monday in the prevailing load That we've seen yesterday to where we are right now in that reversal. So worth keeping an eye on from a technical point of view All right, well, let's get stuck into some headlines And then the guys can go over the technicals, but Coronavirus not going to spend too much time on this I think we're all aware now of the current way of which markets at least are looking at this situation And so despite confirmed cases now heading to 25,000 and just shy of 500 total deaths The market not being Spooked by this and I'd say it's kind of dropping away a little bit in the the macro order of Driving forces at the moment the one thing of course that most people were talking about yesterday was this I'm sure he would have seen The tweets and and people banding around images of a certain company share price and that was Tesla So Tesla has had a money a mental Year so far and let's not forget we're only in beginning of February By the time the market closed yesterday the stock even though it saw a big fall right before the close The stock is still up 112 percent on the year and and if we actually have a look at this So let me just be clear about this where we've had one month of the year and the stock is up 112 percent This isn't like year-end. This is one month in So given what we've seen here, and if you'd have a look at this chart this overlays five different auto manufacturers The other four you'll be very familiar with of course Ford General Motors Toyota Who's the big monster out there in terms of the actual size in market cap? And then Volkswagen, but if you actually look at Tesla, which is the black line at the bottom And what January is added to the company to put this into some other terms They're their market value now is greater than all four of those Or all three of these other companies put together that being General Motors Volkswagen and Theat if you were putting it that way So they're just quite incredible really and and to maybe look at it in a different way This is what the stock price looks like over the last Three months and it's just quite incredible if you look at it year to date over the course of the last month Then you know we were trading at 450 and we did get up Kind of around 950 yesterday before just before the close you might have seen this happened a Move that knocked a hundred billion off their 100 Dollars of their share price at that point and it came about 10 minutes before the close Reasoning behind that there isn't any but this is the nature of when a stock rise Rises as fast as it has done. What are people attributing this move to? Well, I would say it's predominantly a short squeeze I think if you were listening to the media not that long ago There's a lot of big money out there that was shorting Tesla and so Inevitably then when the stock starts rising as it has done There's a lot of people out there feeling the pain and losing a lot of money and having to bail on those shorts And then inevitably you get this big squeeze higher and that knocks out other people and then it just gets really Exaggerated it's the mother of all squeezes if you like of what we've seen from a more Technical point of view. I guess, you know record revenue numbers by the company and recent earnings They're opening of a new key factory in China if you remember they've made quite a close tie with the Chinese government as well And then a degree I guess of a little bit of the fear of missing out people just jumping on wanting to ride it up a little bit of the Bitcoin mentality. I'm sure also coming in and Just leading to this this movement Overall, what do I think? I mean, look, I'm not a single stock picker it by any means but The way of which this share price has risen would indicate then if history is any guide on other Similar stock price movements that you generally see when a stock has risen that quickly 40% almost in two days It's got to come back at some point and when it does it's going to be fairly violent albeit The shares will still probably remain highly elevated and for the year A move of this magnitude of 40% you would say is probably reaching a top and psychologically obviously we've got close to a thousand bucks You probably would have seen on Twitter. I had a text from my brother last night Reminding me that he bought Tesla at $250 He just wanted to rub my my nose in it But and and then just to boot I told him you should get rid of that and he got rid of it right at the very top What a jammy guy he is But hey, that's just the way the cookie crumbles I guess But moving on away from Tesla, so for oil prices As I said, I've really covered this story with that quick look at the crude chart already We did see a moderate rebound yesterday But I think it's quite telling that prices have come back quite a bit from those highs yesterday and that to me is the market kind of testing them the Will if you like of OPEC plus and and trying to call their bluff because you know as I've mentioned before the usual staggered approach of What they do is they try to verbally intervene Internate towards taking some kind of action before they actually do and I think the market sees right through that these days And so if we have another test and push down and particularly we've got the oil inventories coming out later And if they're bearish, I think we do see another down day at the moment And that's just really I think speculators into push the price knowing that we can open the trap door somewhat if we can break through the previous lows seen a day or so ago and Really test the resolve of OPEC who I don't think are really going to step into the market and aggressively cut supply unless we get Down to around the 45 region We did have the API crude oil inventories last night And this kind of sets the stall then for what to expect from the DOEs The crude number was bearish in the sense that the build was bigger than it anticipated 4.18 million against the expected three cushing a bill just shy of a million gasoline just shy of two million also slightly Larger than expected distillates was a draw of 1.78 million that data of course coming out this afternoon at 3 30 London time We did have the Results come out. I believe his name is is pronounced. Boudge Leads in Iowa caucuses as delayed results unfold. You remember there was those technical issues yesterday getting the results out But this this chap has basically come out nowhere and he's beating off all of the main contenders Bernie Sanders is a close second Elizabeth Warren then Joe Biden lagged in fourth place I'm not really read too much about this Boudge gentleman other than He's pretty much the antichrist of Trump being the fact that he's a homosexual he's very much of a Political stance that would be opposing that of the kind of aggressiveness of what Trump has been saying on various different Key issues and I guess that when you have someone like Trump who's there you know quite Almost polarised in his view and stance that he has then the natural Recourse for that normally as you get an absolute opposing force become quite a present and quite a an ability to catch sentiment because of the almost Division of which someone of Trump Trump's approach creates and so this seems to be the natural Reaction effect here and and definitely this chap has taken out some of the more Kind of regular contenders that we're used to hearing so definitely one to watch but going Forward in terms of the session and the days and weeks ahead. I mean the markets don't do not care about this for the moment Let's just be clear. This isn't a marking moving factor So I'd leave it to the side for the moment The other thing as well that that's quite interesting is that I believe he's a he was Ex-armed forces as well. So definitely ticking a lot of interesting boxes that would be quite the quite the opposite Of Trump and to give them quite a clear alternative in a divisive vote If there were to be one if the two were in fact to lead out against each other It would be incredibly interesting From the earnings perspective couple to be aware of they've had Siemens their actual shares were down a touch this morning They posted weaker than expected first quarter industrial profit. They were down just short of 2% We have had BMP Parabas one of the bigger French stocks report They keep pace with Wall Street as trading rebounds Bank slightly cuts profitability targets amid falling rates Just having a look on the kind of scoreboard can't see the actual initial opening prices, but a Few others initial movers vote a phone up about 2% Adidas down about 2% Are some of the moves in the shakers this morning? But overall not too much there to really force things But do bear in mind that Siemens is one of the largest companies in the DAX So it could act as a bit of a tailwind for the the index this morning Looking at the calendar for today The European morning fairly quiet the the PMI data we're going to see is the final readings So these shouldn't then by default be to market moving If anything looking at the currency markets, it's like a little bit of Dollar movement with both those major pairs moving a little higher at the moment but US afternoon certainly Things well before I get to the US UK services PMI is coming out at 9 30 now That one that will be one to watch And the reason for that is that actually we've had about a pretty decent bounce in the PMI data of the UK for Manufacturing in particular and that coming on the coattails obviously of the kind of positive Feedthrough from the majority government from the election that we had at the end of last year The service number really is the key of the three given the the way Our economy is structured and its dependency on services. So that's coming at 9 30 Markets are expecting basically an unchanged reading from previous But we do have a range of fifty two point four to fifty three point five and as per usual you remember what we saw I think it was some the head of the Bank of England. There was some very Suspect price movement coming just before them the announcement of their Unusual split that they had on their decision to hold rates I'd just be mindful of keeping an arm sterling going into this data point if we see any other Kind of erratic price movement going into it But bear in mind the pound has already been fairly bid this morning So if we did get a strong number perhaps that is enough to help us break that technical point of resistance Which you can see the market is respecting at the moment. So that fib level with yesterday's high It's just holding proceedings at the moment until that number comes out. I would imagine Having a look then into the US session, we've got a couple of key economic data points actually really three ADP national employment. So that's the first one up So this often acts as the precursor of course for non-farm payrolls So this is private payrolls and report is based on actual payroll data of about 24 million Employees so it's seen as a fairly weighty precursor for Friday and the last number that came out was 202,000 that was the most since April in the last reading that we had and it was way above market expectations For today, the headlines expected to pull back though to around 156 from from 202 But then later we get the ISM non manufacturing remember what we had beginning of the week the manufacturing sector was a great number Smashing estimates and putting the first expansion of the manufacturing sector in six months So the non manufacturing number is going to be closely watched. That's expected to remain unchanged though at 55 And this is what that pattern of the last 12 readings looks like at the moment I'm sure you probably would have caught some of the state of union Addressed the one the president gives on an annual basis. It was very much talking up the economy And how you know as a validation of his policies and the work that he's done since he came into the White House Obviously didn't talk about the fact that manufacturing activity had slowed remarkably over the course of the last Year or so with the trade war with China However, these recent data points particularly that manufacturing on Monday It'll be interested to see if these other two can follow suit have rebounded sharply And so if that is the case Well, all the more valid he can be in just kind of banging that drum for his political agenda For corporate earnings perspective a few things today pre-market Merck General Motors aftermarket one of the bigger firms would be Qualcomm Those kind of more social media sensitive type names like Twitter Pinterest and one of the recent IPOs Uber all coming out tomorrow All right, that is it for me. Can I hand you over to Sam? So Gonna come off the mic. Let me just switch a few things over He's heading over now Here he comes Yeah, hi guys. Good morning. I hope we're doing well. Yeah, you rowing and the pounders catching The hot air balloons the upside bit of Reaction now you would expect to the the pivot some resistance from overnight some lows from yesterday To come in in that euro. It's a bit of a zone. I've got him marked up in the The other room that was being in and and you can see the load to the high and the pivot It's a pretty nice area where if you were looking for a bit of confirmation to go short This could be the the point where that could come through you can see the importance as well Just having a look here at the the lows that we have from this morning from yesterday And then Monday as well. So three tests of that low. That's another opportunity. Should you actually rather the continuation a break of of that level to come back in to go short Really targeting the low that would be on Friday the 31st. Was it the 31st the Friday? Yes, it was. Yeah, so that could be a little opportunity there, but you know, let's not you know higher that the The dollar is weak today. So if we get a break of this level, I think the Obvious targets will be towards that pivot point where I know a couple of guys were short yesterday from here in the morning And that was obviously a a decent trade back down to towards that s1 It may perhaps painfully slow, but still a good trade and good opportunity Could come from that area again So the the euro just under or the dollar I should say this under a bit of pressure in early trade But I think if you're remaining of that that short bias this pivot This trend line the highs from yesterday the lows from yesterday morning It's a pretty key resistance point But of course, you know for you've been short over the last couple of days a break above that you might just be put off A bit going forward. So those would be the main zones that I'd be focusing on today To the downside those lows to the upside pretty much where we're trading now and then towards the R1 yesterday's highs In that mix as well. I'm gonna look over the pound. Yes pushing higher. Yes, you've got the data out in a moment and Actually against quite a few of the across is the pound is broken some nice levels where It could well be a bit of a retracement to come in This is whether you really want to take that risk on before The data point at half nine or not be seen the importance of this level here that Ant was talking about Earlier on so yeah, keep a watch Just for those other pairs a lot of them do look like this and that we had pushed higher This morning and trend lines have been broken or key horizontal Support or resistance depending which way, you know, you're looking at it whether euro pound or pound against whatever market So potentially later on it's having to look back for these kind of areas here to come back into play breaks of trends all those horizontal support resistance points for The continuation of a bit of pound strength should that come in you can see the importance of that level here it's Resistance having support from last night and this morning with the pivot That's the zone that I'll be looking at to the downside if we were to have strong numbers for the The pound looking here against the dollar where could be some nice targets. Well, I know we we went through it Quite quickly on Monday. Thanks to Boris But here just looking around there just above the R1 It's a bit of a bit of a zone up towards at 131 that the lows from Thursday evening Friday as well Just around that point. I think would be a Pretty good line in the sand and if it was to push on as well You can see 131 10 some nice price action around there. So worth keeping a you know watch on what pound the pound does for the next hour Data has certainly seemed as though it's been leaked the Bank of England was obviously leaked and you've got someone at the The press conferences a certain squawk that are releasing the although I've got telephone lines to traders. So Yeah, if it goes higher, you can presume it's going to be be better. So maybe that opportunity comes if If it's worse than expected just kick out the corner my eye here You see the stocks in the US pushing higher and and this is important because we're not far away from coming to some very important levels here in the Dow just those highs from last week and The the sort of the gap feel never really happened on the Dow futures It happened. Yes on the S&P and you can see we're coming up to That high from yesterday, which was almost that point from the 24 to really keep a watch on this Above 3,300 on the Dow the NASDAQ is well just catching a bid and pushing there just have a quick look over Over that there the Dow on All-time high coronavirus Coronavirus, but yeah, the the S&P and the Dow a bit of catch up to do But work just keeping an eye on how this reacts certainly to the S&P 30 30 5 In terms of levels to perhaps get back in should it retrace obviously don't really want to go chasing this market for now But you can see we broke above this trend came back to retest it That's almost what I want to see from the pound later on But for the S&P three points until you get to that high If that is to continue I would say you've got to prefer the short in in gold and You know whether you're already in this here. I mean what a level pullback from yesterday was the low before we broke through 1565 66. I know a couple people were looking at that trade as well if this picks up and S&P And actually go higher. Well gold has to come lower Which is doing so now it's not one where you jump in right now though Of course, you would like that that stop to be above that pivot So if you're going in the next opportunities are of course on maybe some more confirmation around that area or A break of this key trend and you can see you've got your free test 15-minute or peer on the the 60 minute as well where it would look to come in a previous higher the day So it's a really key level around 1560 where the next opportunity Come for gold if that is to break through some really nice trading yesterday in gold. It has to be said Where trend lines are broken you got them retested Previous levels of support came back into play to act as resistance for that final push lower and you know have to say This market over this this year has been incredibly Resilient to any push higher in equities, but if you know the corona virus, etc Can't kill stocks well gold you would imagine has to perhaps come down a bit Especially if some US data starts to improve I think actually non-farm pairs on Friday could be slightly interesting anyway back to The market at play a break of that trend Interests me key levels to the upside around that 1568 level previous low of the day basically S1 from yesterday As well if this trend line goes, I don't see much stopping it Really obviously you've got other targets to go into play but that low that we had from yesterday As well and you can see why that's important was also the low from the 21st as well So one to keep an eye on especially if stocks can push higher quick look over at the Aussie Shout out to a couple people In stage two that took this trade and we were saying when we're buying it up It was just like is it actually too easy this trade they got the 50% fee We got the R1 you got the previous higher the range that we couldn't get out of one two three four five times came back in Well, what a trade indeed and it's now on the the higher the day thanks a bit of dollar weakness as well Thanks to stocks pushing higher have we seen the low for the Aussie for the short term of the arguments for yet? But of course If you do believe that this market Still has some way to go to the downside that the bushfire impact has not been completely Priced in there's you know some decent levels that means get rid of this fib here to you know hurdle So we say that it's got a get-through To confirm a push higher, you know could argue up towards that 68 36 level could be a nice place to get back in for this trade on that sort of break that we had on the Head and Shoulders area. I know it was a false break, but once we did come back down You can see it's a pretty clean move. So keeping a watch on there That would also be if I was long one of my targets after we get free maybe the 68 handle That attempt of December low So Aussie nice couple of days looks to be continuing for now the dollar weakness Helping euro push higher, but that's a key zone for sure around that pivot The pound data coming out in less than an hour everything to do with the pound seems to be leaked at the moment So just be careful stocks pushing higher will help bring gold back lower You would imagine hope everyone has a good trading day any questions, please do let us know Could be another interesting one