 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we've got 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and you get the markets right now. Just off the highs overnight, we're negative by about three points, you've got First Republic Bank getting taken over by J.P. Morgan. Not shocking if you saw the action on the price action last week for First Republic after their earnings early last week, writing was pretty much on the wall that the bank run was on, the money was out the door, I'm not sure how that they were going to exist as a business and it took a few days and yeah, they're out of business, the name going away as well. J.P. Morgan, they're not going to be carrying that name with the company, they'll be taking over all the assets, we'll get into that. The market, talk about a week last week man, we get through the tech earnings, market plows higher. The most make it to $4,200. Close of action on Friday, you finish it up at about $4,190, we make it to $4,196 overnight. Right now, we're trading down three points in the S&P at $4,185. We still got a big week of earnings this week as well, we're going into those. NASDAQ, $100, negative by 18 points, but boy, you talked about a powerhouse last week. We'll take a look at some of the fang stocks. Dow, negative by one, Russell right now, negative by two points, crude pulling back as well. $75 on the dot, $75.02, down to $1.76. You got gold catching a bid, check it out, gold up $14 at 2013 right now, you see we're at about 1985 in the pre-market session. That was the lows of Friday almost, that was the lows of Thursday, almost right back to the lows of Tuesday as well, we accelerate higher in gold, accelerating almost 30 bucks off the lows we had this morning. You jumped in notes and bonds. It's Fed week. It is Fed week folks, Wednesday. We get a probable hike, we're going to talk about that in a moment, man. The 10-year right now, negative by two ticks, the 30-year is negative by 11 ticks right now, you jump over to the dollar index. There's some action for you, right? You get some dollar weakness from $1.0190 to $1.0170 we'll call it, $1.0168, that putting a little bit of a bid in the gold contract right now. But I was taking a look at the dollar longer term, okay, quite the run up from $89 in the beginning of 2021. We were at that price point again almost two years ago now, June of 2021, you accelerate up to 115, we're trading right now at 101. You're right at the 50% pullback in the dollar index, going to be interesting to see as we approach Fed week what happens and boy, you take a longer term look at the dollar index, right? Look at the sell-off we had, excuse me, from 2001, 2002 to where we went to 2007, just a remarkable pullback from 121 to 71. So keep that in context when you look at the dollar index because, boy, you put things on a weekly, you say, man, that is a mammoth move and a mammoth pullback, but folks, when things get out of whack, those are the types of moves you can have, man, from 121 down to 70. We haven't got back to the highs even yet. You make it to 115, we're trading right now at 101.68 in the dollar index and let's jump over to the VIX. You talk about it, we're back to a 16 handle on the VIX. A lot of volatility during COVID. Let's put it on a weekly for five years going back and yeah, as you see, man, the VIX, I don't think we saw a VIX of this price level in all 1634. You have to go back to basically the beginning of last year, one of the first trading days before things really accelerated, 1634, where did we get to last week? 1572, man, 1572, absolutely remarkable, the volatility sucked out of this market. It's especially interesting with this headline as we go, the Fed set to raise interest rates to 16 year high and debate a pause. That last part is the important part, man. Are they going to debate a pause and what is the debate going to be geared around? They could keep their options open and crafting signals around the end game for increases. They could and I imagine they will, folks, there is a lot of data that the Fed is going to get from now until their next meeting. So we are May 1st, the next meeting, as in the one coming up right now is May 3rd on Wednesday. So you're not going to have a plethora of the data from April, right? We just got numbers in terms of PCE, we just got inflation, we've gotten consumer numbers as well, but we haven't gotten the big numbers for the month of April yet. By the time they have their next meeting in June, okay, I'll pull it up. I think it's like June 13th, 14th. It's about six weeks in between meetings is what they do. You're going to get all the April data and you're going to get all the May data. So no matter what they say today, we got two months of data before the next meeting. So if they talk about pausing, it's going to be data dependent, man, no matter what they do. And I think as we saw Friday, remarkable how this market just powered through a band as we have a weakening economy and we have inflation being sticky at like 4.6% on a core basis. It's worrisome if that persists, okay? That is the way that it probably has to happen in terms of you're not going to see inflation drop and then consumer spending dip, right? You're going to see the economy weaken, which is then in turn going to calm down inflation. The biggest worry is the economy weakens and inflation doesn't calm down and that is stagnation, right? You have a stagnating economy, meanwhile, you have rising prices, which hurts things even worse. That is like a recipe for disaster. But what's so interesting is that like has to be the first step to get out of inflation. If what the Fed is doing is going to work, they're going to cause the economy to weaken first, and then that is going to bring down inflation while we might be at the stage that we have a weakening economy and we have inflation persisting. But so often this market has gotten ahead of itself. When you think about where you are, where we've been and where they think things are going in the future, well, now the comment is, okay, we're seeing the weakening, that's going to bring down inflation. It still has to happen, folks. We're still a generational inflation and you look at some of these charts. This is the one I wanted to take a look at, okay? This is the cumulative change in Fed funds rate since the start of their initial rate increase. This is their 16th, no, excuse me, 16 year high. How many hikes is it? 16 year high. I think maybe it was on this one we were looking at. I'll pull it up. Nonetheless, folks, 2022, an outlier in terms of both how high they've gone to a rate of almost 5% and the time that they've done it in, in terms of about a year. Look at all the other paths when the Fed had been hiking, okay? You can go back to 1988, right? We made it to 3.25% in terms of the cumulative change in the Fed funds rate since the start of the initial rate increase. Now, maybe somebody in the den knows. I'm imagining in 1988 rates weren't at 0% when they started, right, potentially. Maybe they were. What did we get to? Because this is just the change from where they began and where they ended. But look at that. You're only talking about 3.25%. Meanwhile, we're almost 5% right now, right? Yeah, the slope broke them for sure, man. The speed of these hikes, folks, they did not manage their risk while the banks, and we're seeing First Republic, we'll get into it in a moment, but I'm sure you're all aware. They go under over the weekend. Writing was on the wall on Friday, man. The reports were even out on Friday. The writing was on the wall when they came out of their earnings, folks. The bank run was on. It just takes a little while for them to lose all their money, okay? But the bank run was on, JPMorgan steps in. So this one more hike, okay? Another quarter percentage point increase would lift the benchmark funds rate to a 16-year high, and they began raising them March of last year. Yeah, I mean, look at the last time that we have 2015 on this chart, okay? That's your green. It took them more than three years to go up 2.25%. It just took them a year to go up almost 5%, folks. Gonna be an interesting Wednesday in the markets, and yeah, gonna be an interesting week, man. S&P is negative by 5%. I mean, Basil Chapman's got a webinar for his subscribers coming up Wednesday as well. Great timing for that. We'll talk about that when we get back. Stay tuned, folks. We're back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to. And you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. At TFNN.com, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn. And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN Educating Investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigerses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. S&P's negative by about five points right now, trading at 4184. Boy, you look at these longer-term charts, right? You got quite a market, folks, in terms of this is what, you know, I know I've been preaching it and it doesn't mean it's gonna happen because boy, these tech companies, they handle things extremely well. The only thing was Amazon with their cloud warning on Friday. In terms of a 500 basis point cut to the growth rate they saw in April versus the first quarter, but you put this market on a chart, man. I mean, the COVID blip barely is even there. All you had to do is withstand a few months of pressure to the downside, to the tune of about a 30% haircut. You don't even see that pullback practically in this chart. You got it back so quick. And nonetheless, folks, okay? I'm gonna, I mean, just look at in terms of where we're gonna talk about, okay? The moves that we've had in the dollar, remarkable over the period of time. You're talking about from 2008, 2009, 665 bucks up to 4,800 and you shake it off back to 3,500 and just like that where 4,200, we'll call it in the S&P ballpark in it. Now, I've talked about this longer term as well. Let's back it up on dailies because we are coming into the possible pause of the Fed, okay? I don't imagine they're gonna raise to like seven or 8% folks, okay? Things are already happening. Banks are failing every other weekend. That's the fourth bank failure and I think a month. Is it a month? Maybe two months? You gotta go back? Yeah, probably two months. I think it was March 7th about. Things really started to get out of hand. Absolutely remarkable it took that long for First Republic. When you think about the amount of investors that were in that equity for so long. But what's interesting is you take a look at the charts, okay? And you look where we were on March 7th. The market gets ahead of itself. That's gonna be the point of this, folks, okay? When we got the first hike, there was probably some language that came in there as well, that maybe it was gonna be transitory. Forget exactly what the message was, but nonetheless, you know what the message was? The market said it's priced in, we're accelerating higher. Markets traded up to 4,600 and then it was C, you don't wanna be traded down about 1,000 points over a period of about the next two months, right? Remarkable acceleration. Then you got to move up, then you traded down and what have we done? Since the October lows, you've seen quite an acceleration. We're pushing those highs yet again. It would be remarkable if we were at literally the same exact price point 14 months later as the Fed begins to pause, okay? But boy, there's a lot of volatility to come, man. Now, I was talking about the dollar index, when Duffy posted in the den, I had that story up, we'll talk about it, Duffy. Nice article from the journal, talking about the dollar. It'd be interesting to see where it plays out, right? Now, in similar fashion, okay? You go back to where we were in the dollar index at that time, when the Fed was just beginning to hike. You back it up to March 7th of last year, had the dollar index at about 98. You make it up to 115, you're back to 102 right now, okay? Now, to back it up a little bit further, you can see, though, that the dollar started pricing in those hikes ahead and it never stopped, man, okay? Never stopped in terms of the dollar, started pricing in potentially in June, that we were bumping off the lows of 90. You made it all the way up to 98. By the time the Fed started to hike, you'd drive up to 115. Now, what this journal article talks about is, yeah, you look at this chart, you back it up to 2002. Now, you are cherry picking a bit because we're not taking the 201, but it don't matter, folks. Look at that chart. You see risk to the upside or do you see risk to the downside? When you're talking about, we pushed basically highs that we were at over the last 20 years. You touched 115. We're still sitting at a pretty lofty 101.69 right now in the dollar index. And let's jump over to it. Their headline is the air has come out of the dollar. Decade long rally leaves the US currency as much as 15% overvalued. Goldman Sachs is talking about, okay? Now they make some good points here. When you got a week in an economy and you look at how this reacted, okay, in terms of where we were in 2002, when things were falling apart, where we got to all the way in 2008 to $70 in the dollar index, investors are betting that the US currency has further to fall as the Fed nears the end of its most aggressive program of interest rate increases since the 80s, also weighing on the dollar concerns over the banking system, a potential US debt default. The debt default would be getting so much attention if we weren't in a generational inflation battle where the Fed is hiking for the 60th time in a year, okay? There's a lot of fight for headlines right now in the financial world and this debt battle would be a big one if it wasn't so packed with news in terms of earnings, inflation data, Fed or reserve meaning coming up that we have a hike where we're facing generational inflation. It's tough to fit in all the important parts right now but the debt limits coming man and we got an election on top of it, right? There's your dollar index and that's kind of what they do, okay? That's the Wall Street Journal dollar index. They back it up to where it was in about 2002 and yeah, you look at that chart man, a little bit different from the chart we're looking at but pretty close, okay? We make trough lows in about 2008. You challenge that area in 2012 and then this thing just takes off for 13 years straight from almost 65 on their chart to above 100. If you put it on the DXY, I have it at about 70 up to about 115. This market trails off a bit now of six points. So investors are betting the Fed will pivot to lowering barring costs by at least a quarter point by the end of the year, okay? That's investors. Meanwhile, the market pricing suggests that investors expect the ECB and the Bank of England to raise their key rates by more than a half a percentage point by the year end. I've been having some great conversations with our man, Teddy Kegstad. Talking about, he makes the point, you know, you look at the dollar index, man, it's powered by the Euro but you start breaking it down versus individual currencies. He does a great job. You can check out those interviews free on our YouTube channel folks, just search TFNN. You can go into the videos, you watch any archive we have, any interview, check them out because he's making those same cases, man, you're gonna have Europe's in trouble. Now he thinks we're in trouble too, okay? And he's thinking that we might have to hike continually. But when he looks at those other countries, that is gonna be pressure, man, okay? The IMF expects expansion in the US GDP to slow to 1.1% next year and the Eurozone to rise 1.4, to rise 1.4%. Well, it sees China at 4.5. The dollar exceptionalism story is weaker, not just from the rates perspective where rates may have peaked, inflation may have peaked well ahead of the Eurozone but also from a growth perspective. It's an important part of the conversation, man. We saw it on Friday with some of those consumer numbers, et cetera. History suggests dollar weakness could prove short-lived in the Fed's past four rate cycles, the dollar typically weakened or traded flat for three to four months after the final rate increases before eventually resuming its strengthening. That's JPMorgan to give you both sides of it there. Now, one final part, which is what Duffy was talking about in the den because it's a great point as well. Here we go. Weaker dollars, typically good news for the global economy. Now, if the globe's really in trouble, okay, if the economy's really in trouble, the whole global economy's really in trouble, that's gonna impact our country, man. Okay, and you know these Fed, the Fed, the ECB, Bank of England, they're all communicating to some degree because a huge collapse somewhere is going to spill over in many areas, okay? So you get a weaker dollar, it helps everybody, man. It lowers the cost of servicing or repaying dollar debt for foreign companies and governments boosts the value of overseas earnings by U.S. multinationals and can bolster global trade because goods priced in dollars become more affordable to international buyers. It's a release valve for global growth. 60% of global liabilities are denominated in dollars. A lot of those are in emerging markets and emerging markets are responsible for maybe two thirds of global growth in the last decade. So it's interesting when you look at it from that perspective, right? In terms of folks as Americans in the longer term, we saw it play out, man, when you got inflation raging over in the ECB and their economy was weaker. And guess what? Our dollar was able to buy commodities at a better rate because we had a strong dollar. And in the long run, folks, you print dollars on paper and then they are valued to buy commodities. It seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right, but you're not most people, are you? At TFNN, you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies and techniques to invest like a pro because you'll be a pro. All TFNN subscriptions, books, software, and courses are available at tfnn.com. And I'm even going to tell you how to get them for less. Use TFNN's tiger dollars and you'll get up to a 20% bonus on your purchase. And once you apply them to your account, tiger dollars are automatically used for all future or recurring charges. Tiger dollars also never expire, are fully transferable, and are a great way to add savings to your newsletters or services. Become the investor you were born to be at tfnn.com. TFNN, educating investors. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all tigers and tygruses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tygruses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of tfnn.com. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks. We got markets open for the trading month of May, new week, new month, coming into a Fed decision in about just over 48 hours from right now, right? You're talking about Wednesday, 2 p.m. Eastern time. You get an announcement, 2.30 p.m. Eastern time. We get a press conference, the press conference, man. That's what it's gonna be all about. They may change some of the verbiage in terms of their statement, expect a quarter basis point. Hike, and then we go from there. Then we see what the chairman has to say, man. And we see how these markets handle it. Boy, you couldn't even find a sell last market, last week, right? Amazon shares. The only weakness you could say in terms of the big tech companies, you're up to 123. You actually finished the week at about 105. You're at 104.91, barely in the red right now as the market shakes off another bank failure over the weekend. You got Apple shares. Boy, you talk about an acceleration, man. Apple flat this morning in Microsoft, a real powerhouse last week. You put this thing on a weekly. How about that? How about that weekly from Microsoft, man? Powering, powering higher. Let's see what we're talking about for Fibonacci numbers on Microsoft. I'm gonna ballpark a high here when we have that high towards the end of 2021. We back it up to where we are. And that is a blow through the 618, man. The 786 on Microsoft, about $10 higher, 316 and the highs 350 from Microsoft shares. You check out some of the other big companies, right? We talked about it earlier, man. I mean, look at these companies in terms of the move they've gotten back off of the lows. You got NVIDIA in a pretty similar area from 346. And this one, I remember, man. There was a lot of talk about NVIDIA towards the end of 2021 that the multiples that they were dealing with, okay, they were gonna have to make money for like a hundred years. Let's see if I can find it real quick. The fundamentals. Their PE ratio, there it is. The current PE ratio, 155. I mean, we're gonna be making a lot of chips, okay? But that's quite a PE ratio, all right? And you see how this company can fluctuate with volatility. I remember that they were talking about it. I think that's even a forward PE ratio. Let's get it. All right, I'm not sure where that goes to. It'll tell me. No, I mean, the five-year average is 66. It's at 155, right? No matter how you look at it. NVIDIA, about a $700 billion company right now, but those are some lofty PE numbers, man. And I remember when they were getting lofty at 350, and that was one of the areas I said, ah, you know what? You probably could have taken a little bit of a gamble there when the company got to a PE ratio of 200 plus, 250 plus, something crazy when you were back there. And guess what? Yeah, the stock traded down 60 to 70% over the next nine months, 12 months or so. So, NVIDIA, well above the 618 of their pullback, right? Microsoft, well above the 618 of their entire pullback. Apple, Apple just broke above a trend line that it's basically been pushing against since it traded from the highs of the beginning of last year. You touched that area on the initial thrust higher in March of last year. You touched that area on the August high as well. And we just got above it and we broke above it nicely, man. Yeah, our man, Bud Ross, the channel master, he'd say, wait for that to come back and test that channel line first. And boy, if you got Apple test in the channel line and trading higher, watch out, man, because this Apple can carry the whole market practically. And let's just see actually what Apple got back. Apple's been so strong, man. I just wanna see where they are on a Fibonacci basis. They are pushing the 786. Look at that, from the pullback they had, down to the lows, you're right at the 786 for Apple and you're also coming almost within a stone's throw, those highs from August, within about six bucks from where we were in August of last year. We jump over to Tesla shares. They've been another good story, but guess what? Not quite the same, man. They've rolled over from the highs they had a 207 Tesla down another 2% so far this morning. What else we got? How about Netflix shares? Down about 410th percent. We jump over to Disney shares this morning. Down about 410th percent right now. And let's jump over to a little bit of movies. Yeah, Super Mario Brothers. How about it? $1,000,000. The animated film is the fifth movie since the pandemic to gross a billion dollars. The first billion dollar movie of 2023, Super Mario Brothers. Estimated global box-office receipts on Sunday, the first movie to do so in 2023. 490 million domestically, 532 million internationally. You've only seen five of those films since the pandemic and they're all big ones, man. You got Avatar, Top Gun, Spider-Man, Jurassic World and now you have Super Mario. Yeah, moviegoers are heading back to dealers but not in the numbers they were before COVID. Nine movies surpassed the billion dollar mark in 2019 alone. I forget how many Disney had. They had like almost all of them. It was remarkable in terms of the run they had up in 2009, nine movies did a billion dollars in 2019 and then things changed in 2020. But guess what, man? The movie theater experience not going away. Not going away at all. Things are changing, to say the least. And that is a collaboration between Nintendo and Comcast, the two companies. I think Comcast, maybe Chartered, do they have their numbers coming up? Let me see what they're doing. CMCSA is their symbol. They're up a percent. Now they have their numbers on Thursday. Look at that acceleration. Thursday they got the numbers. Friday they accelerate with the market and today they accelerate. Probably on that news of a billion dollars is Comcast up another percent so far today. No other movie released this year has grossed even 500 million worldwide. When was Avatar last year, it must have been then, huh? John Wick chapter four. If you haven't checked out the John Wick series folks, check it out. But nonetheless, they're trading a little bit higher. On that news, a billion dollars. You jump over to AMC. I think they're out with their numbers. Is it this week? They are. They're out with their numbers on Friday, AMC. Always a wild one. You're looking at about a 50 cent move for a $5.53 stock now just because movies aren't going away, man, doesn't mean that AMC isn't going away, okay? You don't have to be a master technician to look at that chart and say weakness, folks. So be careful if you're playing AMC. Yeah. I mean, maybe they get taken over by Amazon or something like that. It would be like the best case scenario for buying that equity in my opinion. Now you wanna talk about an equity you wanna stay away from. First, Republic. You put this thing back on a daily. Let's put it back even just on a 20-day hourly. Writing was on the wall the moment they came out with their earnings a week ago, folks. It's always tough taking a haircut when you're talking about a haircut that looks like this, okay? 222 bucks at the end of 2021, but just even $120 before the banking crisis began. You see the little bit of a sell-off from February. March is where things really became erratic. 120 bucks. So you just traded from 120 down to 15, right? You say, man, what's the point in taking 15 bucks? I've already lost 80 to 90% of my money. The point is, you could have saved 80 to 90% of what you had left, okay? Because I remember coming on the air Tuesday morning at hindsight's 2020, all right? But even as JP Morgan takes him over, they're not taking over the name, man. The name is gone. The name was gone the moment these earnings came out and we found out that basically they had no money. Everybody was running for the doors. A big chunk of the money they had left was the 30 billion the big banks gave them. And that was it. The reputation was over. And at this point, folks, at $12, that company was still valued at $2 billion. Even at $6, the next day, it was still valued at $1 billion, right? So common sense sometimes, folks. And I know the market can be irrational at times, but use some of that common sense because that bank, it seemed like, and look how long it stayed there for, right? Look how long you're talking about from March 20th, my birthday, all the way through to April 24th. You had a full month to get $15 back. Now you'll be lucky to get $2 back. Yeah, it looks like what? That's not even trading right now. Is that how it works? I'm not even sure how these work. I should know. We should all get a lesson in terms of how they work. But we'll talk a little bit about that when we get back. C's sold to JP Morgan in the second largest US bank failure. You wouldn't know from the market. We're positive in the S&Ps. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up, tfnn.com. Educating investors. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at tfnn.com. Fill the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on US large-cap stocks in either direction, trade SPXL, SPUU, or SPXS, directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs. Direction leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit Direction Investments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Market hasn't slowed down yet, man. We just traded up 10 points from where we were coming into the open. We're pushing the overnight highs right now at 41.92. You got the Nasdaq 100 barely in the red this morning. Dow up by 45, rustle up by 10. Let's check in on the dollar index this morning. Dollar index 101.70. You check in on the 10-year right now. Just chopping around. 1.503 right now on the 10-year. We'll put it back to a 15 minute. We'll jump over to JP Morgan. Market, like in the fact they're taking over First Republic, they have a loss-sharing agreement with the Fed, not bad. You do trade off of the highs we had pre-market, though, if 145 was still up, about 2.5% right now. That's $3.28 to the upside for JP Morgan. Bank of America, barely in the positive. Just checking around some of the other banks. You got Citi, up by 1.5% right now. Wells Fargo, up by 1.4% right now. And getting back to that story. Kind of some of the details there. So they're gonna buy a bulk of the operations, JP Morgan is. It's gonna assume all of their $92 billion in deposits, insured and uninsured. It's gonna buy most of the bank's assets, including about $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities as part of the agreement. The FDIC will share losses with JP Morgan on First Republic's loans. The agency estimated that its insurance fund would take ahead of $13 billion in the deal. JP Morgan also said it would receive $50 billion in financing from the FDIC. Second largest bank in the US history to fail. And what's remarkable is I didn't realize it. It's bigger than signature and Silicon Valley, okay? Because they had $223 billion in assets at the first quarter, just behind the 2008 collapse of Washington Mutual. Rounding on the top four are Silicon Valley and signature, the ones that failed in March. JP Morgan is poised to emerge from the crisis even bigger. They got about $50 billion in deposits when people were panicking, right? And they had 2.4 trillion in deposits at the end of the first quarter. They're gonna go up even more from here. Now this would not be able to happen in more normal times, man. They don't like the banks getting even bigger. These are not normal times in the Fed, man, right? It was a busy weekend for these banks, I'm sure. And yeah, First Republic's failure seems unlikely to spur another crisis in confidence in the Main Street lenders that serve a chunk. No, don't be worried about the Main Street. Be worried about the regional lenders, folks. And I know they're different, okay? I know they are. Some of these companies magnificently mismanaged their risk, but it took a month, which is remarkable in itself, right? That it took that long for it to go under when they came out with their numbers on a week ago and no, it didn't take a month. People were running for the bank rightfully so. I kept talking about it. So who was keeping money in First Republic? Well, this whole saga's playing out and it was chopping around at $14 or $15. Why? Why would? And the answer was no, they weren't keeping it. They were taking out at record pace. Okay, what else we got going on? Let's check out some of the companies with earnings this week. What do we got? We got Tuesday, we got Marriott. We got Pfizer. We have Uber with their numbers on Tuesday. Let's jump over to Uber shares. There's an acceleration for you, man. Just a 29.50 on Friday. We're up 4.2% right now for Uber shares. You check out the daily. Let's put it back even further, man. This thing, quite a downtrend. You break out of that channel line in January. Not really a test, right? Didn't quite make it there, but you jump in higher this morning, up 4%. You jump over the analyze tab. They're out with their numbers tomorrow and that's a move for you. $32 stock, market pricing in about a $2.73 move. Just for their numbers this week. If you look at almost a $3 move for their numbers in terms of if you want action all the way through Fridays. You're talking about a 9% move if you're buying a, I was gonna say a put or a call, but either direction. So cut that in half if you're playing directionally, right? You're playing directionally. You look for an at the money. Right now, $32.50 we'll call it. About a buck 50 on either side to get action. So you need about a 5% move and you need to be right directionally if you wanna make money, paying the premium on these equities. Vicks sitting pretty comfortably right now. Vicks is 16 on the dot. Look at this, man. Absolutely wild that we're coming into Fed Day, man, with all the volatility about them, but I think the market's made up the decision that no matter what, this might be the last hike. It seems like that's how it's trading, man. I don't know if that's the deal. And like I said, we get two months of data in between this Fed meeting and the next Fed meeting in June. So no matter what gets said, those data points are gonna be extremely important, especially if the market starts thinking that we are on a path to pausing. What else do we have coming up on Wednesday, folks? Now, next hour, we have our man, Basil Chapman, doing the Tiger Technicians Hour. He already put out an outstanding update for his subscribers to the opening call this morning. He had an update out there over the weekend for subscribers as he always does. And he's got a 90 minute webinar coming up on Wednesday night. You can sign up for the opening call right on the front page of TFNN. Folks, it takes two minutes. You can sign up right now. You'll be a subscriber. By the time Basil comes on at 10 o'clock in the morning, you can be reading his opening call. You can be checking out the video he put out for subscribers. This will be 90 minutes and you can see what he's gonna be talking about, okay? Sector, stocks, and Chapman Wave techniques to focus on for the coming months. Which stocks and sectors worked in the first quarter but could now stall, which are ready to break upside? Can this rotational market finally see the tech sector lead a sustained move to the upside? Boy, last week was quite a week. Can it sustain it? Well, we got positive prices so far this morning, man. What technical aspects in the Chapman Wave methodology are suggesting strength continues this year? Are the techniques applicable to the short-term analysis just as helpful longer-term? He goes over a number of other things. He'll be talking about, folks, Basil's an outstanding educator. He'll be in there for 90 minutes with subscribers. It's right in our Discord room. We'll tag you for an opening call subscriber. You just jump right into the room and it comes with a money-back guarantee, folks. So head on over there. You can sign up for a month for a buck 49. If you wanna save 22% or $199, you can sign up for six months. If you wanna save $593, you can sign up for a year. They all come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, folks. So you get the newsletter for a month. You gain access to the webinar coming up on Wednesday. You gain access to the archive if you can't attend all 90 minutes from four till 5.30. You get a month of his newsletter. If it's not something you plan you're gonna use for whatever reason, you cancel, get a money-back guarantee, you get that money back, and I'm sure that there will be value tomorrow and throughout the month in Basil's outstanding newsletter, the opening call. So check it out, folks. Sign up and you'll be cooking on that opening call riding that Chapman Wave. And boy, you talk about riding waves, man. We're riding waves to higher prices in the market and a 15 handle on the volatility index as we come into Fed Day. Absolutely remarkable. All right, back to companies. I digressed a bit with Uber. So Uber's out with their numbers on Tuesday. Also Tuesday, we get Starbucks out with their numbers. You talk about a run, man. Look at that chart. Let's back it up for a three, five year. Push into the highs of last year, man. Starbucks from 70 bucks up to 115 right now. We jump over to the Analyze tab and you're looking at about a $5.56 move priced into Starbucks for their numbers. And yeah, they're out with their numbers tomorrow. Then you jump to Wednesday. We get CVS out with their numbers on Wednesday. You're talking about a $3.20 move, so almost a 5% move for CVS on their numbers. What do we got? We got Zillow. There's a move for you, $3.60. Now this one, you talk about getting ahead of itself, right? You know, what is interesting, folks, is that Zillow, I've been using this for rentals in terms of my own property, I have a Tampa. And my dad turned me onto this. I mean, they are the go-to for rentals now, which is pretty interesting in terms of the absolute market for rentals. You get Zillow up 1%. They're out with their numbers on Wednesday this week and you're looking at about a $3.60 move. Stay tuned, folks. We'll talk about some other companies most notably, Apple with their numbers on Thursday. We'll take a look at Apple. We'll take a look at Lyft as well on Thursday and Coinbase. Stay tuned, folks. One more segment. Head on over to the front page of TFNN. Sign up for that opening call where we're on a three minute break. Right back to finish up the program. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas. Interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key of disease, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the Opening Call Newsletter at TFNN.com. The Opening Call Newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the Opening Call Newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. I gotta try the Coinbase up here. Down 1% right now as we jump over to Bitcoin. Down about 900 bucks. So Bitcoin down about 3%. You got Coinbase down about 1% this morning. What I would say in crypto, folks, and I don't really have any action in Coinbase, I got no action in crypto. Got enough volatility across the market right now for my taste, but if I was going to dabble, I would be dabbling in crypto versus trusting my money with Coinbase. And that's just my perception, man, but they are gonna be out with their numbers on Thursday. You jump over to the Analyze tab, and yeah, you better expect some volatility, man. You're talking about about an 11% move priced in for their numbers in either direction when they come out with their numbers on Thursday. We jump over to Apple shares. Apple, $170 stock, and you're talking about about a 4% move, right? They got so much cash, man, that yes, they are volatile, okay, but nothing like some of these smaller companies that are pricing in growth for their valuations. A lot of what Apple's pricing in is revenue, earnings, and the just pile of cash that they're sitting on, man. So you got less than a 4% move priced in for Apple earnings after the bell on Thursday, and what did I say, lift out with their numbers as well. We talked about Uber. If I was gonna be in a ride-sharing company, folks, I would not be in Lyft, I would be in Uber, okay? I don't know how Lyft is gonna compete with that company when they got left by the wayside, man. Absolutely remarkable, right? This company accelerated to $70 in the beginning of 2021, and it looks like it's on a path to zero. That's what it looks like, man. Uber, different scenario. You break out of that down to a channel. Maybe we come back and test it eventually, but different chart to say the least, they're both out with their numbers. So Lyft, you're talking about a $10.40 stock and you got about almost a 15% move priced in, a buck 53 priced in for their numbers. What else do we get? We get MRNA, Moderna with their numbers, I believe. Yeah, they're out with their numbers on Thursday, $7.50 move for $131 stock on Moderna. So it'll be an interesting one, but guess what? The main event, folks, Wednesday, Fed Day in the market. So guess what? We're making new recent highs, 41.97 in the SMPs. Stay tuned, folks. Our man Basil Chapman's up next. He's got his webinar Wednesday. As I said, what a great day to do it, right? You got Fed Day on Wednesday. We got Apple earnings on Thursday. Check it out. Basil's coming up next, folks. Have a great Monday. Talk to you tomorrow.