 Okay, very good morning to you. It's Wednesday the 9th of December. I hope everything is going well and just going to get up to speed as per usual then run you through the major headlines from the close on Wall Street last night anything major in the age-specific session and then what we're looking out for for the rest of the day so things like any further updates from the US FDA on the approval of the Pfizer vaccine and of course Brexit which got a few points to stress as well and how to tackle that if you're trading the sterling currency so first off going to start with this chart here this is the NASDAQ 100 and as the title would suggest then gained for a 10th straight session it's longest it's longest streak that we've seen in a year you'd have to go all the way back and you know you could say seasonality to a certain degree the Santa Claus rally of the end of last year but that aside another positive close on Wall Street albeit very marginal last night but we have added to those gains in the overnight session and if we look at the index futures this morning I've just got the three US majors here you can see a little bit of a gap up on the recommencement of trade for the S&P so sitting above of course the 3700 hand will now the the overnight high 3714 and three-quarters NASDAQ as well just consolidating after quite a large push that we saw into the late hours on Wall Street and we just kind of gone sideways since then similar with the Dow and consequently then in terms of the DAX this morning playing a bit of catch-up and training around it's R1 where it's found a bit of resistance this morning up 58 points why is this even happening in the first place well the first thing if you weren't following markets last night was this so we had Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested setting aside some issues now what those issues were were business liability protections in exchange for the Democrats in negotiation dropping their demands for state government aid and so this strategic retreat as it's being termed by McConnell as seemed at an olive branch at trying to strike a deal and so as we've kind of said this week very quiet in terms of actual scheduled economic data pieces particularly coming out the US but generally kind of globally and that means then a lot of focus on these top-level themes and stimulus will they won't they is pretty much as important if not for more multi-asset then will they won't they on the Brexit deal this week because of ramifications of that the government shutdown threat that we've got in the end of the week so that was followed then by a couple of other things but firstly just rounding off the close and Wall Street so that helped bump things up last night in addition as well Pfizer shares you probably saw what up around 3.18% and that came after an FDA staff report showed the company's vaccine is highly effective in preventing COVID-19 and there were no safety concerns concerns that would prevent it from being granted an emergency use authorization later on today remember the US FDA a meeting to discuss the vaccine by Pfizer and by Entech later today but I would say the cat's out the bag slightly I expect that to go through much of that positivity was what helped lift things last night and in the overnight session also as well one of the other things in case you you hear a headline about it there has been an update from the army general in the US and reason why he's particularly important because he's the one leading the rollout of the vaccine he has commented last night that it may take a few more days than earlier thoughts remember reports we were reading in the last week have suggested that as soon as they get that emergency use authorization within 24 hours the vaccines will start being used as what we were seeing in the UK just yesterday but he suggested that actually the delay could be up to around four days I think it's a bit of a mood point really I don't think that makes a great deal of difference in the grander scheme of things we're just going to be aware of then we move into the overnight session as I said we kind of pushed up into the close and we actually continued that kind of momentum in the overnight Asia Pacific session and this is another thing that we've seen again stimulus related and this was Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin presented a new 916 billion dollar relief plan including state aid and remember that was one of the things which McConnell's original deal was looking to get a concession on nor to strike a deal so there's a number of different things happening here and the more proposals that there are the more then including things like state aid which would meet the demands to some degree of the Democrats the more likely is we're centering and coalescing around a potential deal coming forward and the markets are kind of liking that at the moment another thing we had overnight just so you're aware was this China's state backed coronavirus vaccine this is from Sinofarm unit China National Biotech Group they've basically come out and a UAE study has found that the Chinese coronavirus vaccine protected 86% of the people it was tested from getting COVID-19 in their latest trials and that does mean it's been granted emergency use authorization specifically in the UAE but perhaps important because this is something that's been deployed in China but just moving offshore if you like and potentially get more positive vaccine use as well probably just helping sentiment give another additional nudge in that respect then in the overnight session we did see general dollar weakness or however as Europe's coming to the market after what had been pretty persistent dollar selling in the overnight Asia session it's just reverse cost partially the Dixie's well off its lows now but still down two tenths of one percent and so we've run into a little bit of resistance in cable around 134 and in Euro and around the R2 around 121 50 in the futures cable here obviously quite quite a key one today I'm going to talk much more about Brexit in a moment that 134 handle which is this top rectangle you can see from right left to right has been quite a key marker if you like for price to pivot upon as either staying below or above and we've had a move off there so for any of the early birds catching up 134 handle which is that range high that we've traded in the last two sessions also pretty much this week xing out the initial move that we saw on the initial selloff on Monday morning the other final thing to mention in the overnight session was this we do have some Chinese data overnight where Chinese consumer prices declined for the first time actually since 2009 so 11 years came in at minus 0.5% expectations year and year worth of flat although mostly due to a 2% drop in food inflation remember we had these astronomical pork prices that were really accelerating food prices and lifting the CPI for months gone by in China as that's fading out so there was a 12.5% slump in pork prices when you break the data set down and that kind of explains the weakness in that reading doesn't mean those that you know a weak consumer profile is still pretty evident here given if you take out non food CPI it did also still contract by around 0.1% so the 0.4 on top to hit 0.5 negative was predominantly from the food situation so we've had some really good data out of China recently obviously in the PMIs for example in the export beta it's just the first one that perhaps hasn't quite lived up to that to quite the same degree it's still that underlying consumer based demand in the overnight session we did have in Japan though a little bit more positive machinery orders in Japan jumped at their fastest pace and more more than a decade but I would say with those types of figures you do have to remember that that's fine it's accelerating the best in ten years but that's because it got hit very badly and so for it to jump quite up quite quickly is not I don't think too unexpected alright well let's talk let's talk Brexit what is the latest and yeah loads of headlines coming out I've kind of summarized a few things here and definitely a few things that I would say I want you guys to be on the lookout for so first off PM Johnson is going to meet with European Commission President von der Leyen in Brussels for dinner tonight no set time but obviously dinner so probably the likelihood then of the outcome of those discussions might not come until very late in the evening that does then bring about the consequence of probably quite a liquid market at that time of day but I would imagine that most institutions will man their FX desk on the sterling desk that is through into the into the evening to make sure that that's covered so just timing wise I'll confirm in the Amplify live chat later on today when we know more details yesterday of course the UK dropped its controversial parts of the internal market bill that would be given well would have given it power to unilaterally override the Brexit kind of divorce treaty particularly in relation to the Irish border so that's seen as a somewhat concession on the side of the UK to help these these talks progress but that does not detract from the point that that is a separate issue to the same three that have dug these negotiations from the beginning fisheries competitive playing field for standards and subsidies and how those agreements might be enforced in future so they're still the main three things that we're looking out for the kind of summary here that I wrote in my morning note that I published on Twitter this morning was that sterling could see yet more headline volatility today with a lack of deal putting cable at risk of further downside on a more binary outcome given the emphasis particularly on today what I mean by that is is that of course they don't need to strike a deal today albeit most people envisage that realistically then these European officials need to read through any agreement in time to then vote on it on the 28th of December so ultimately it really should get done this week however we know they like to push the timetables and it could be then that and I actually think that will happen in the end is that they'll get a deal done right at the end of the month and and will be granted which is an a Brexit deal this magnitude has never been done before but Europe could grant then this type of grace period if you like to then see it through into the new year without a disorderly kind of exit through the transition process so some of the main things here is that I just wanted to point out is that a lot of emphasis has been put on today specifically and the reason for that is that EU leaders have made very clear and it's coming from right at the top so the council head from Merkel to Macron that the European Council meeting happening on Thursday on Friday these negotiations will be kept off the agenda off the agenda meaning then that if something's not struck tonight or then it's probably not going to happen this week until perhaps the weekend if not then Monday and so on so I do think that today's outcome of that evening course a little bit more binary that does also mean that I reckon you're going to get lots more source comments leaks tweets and so on that could disrupt the pound and it will remain very sensitive given how anxious people are about the end outcome of this no deal contingency planning that's probably something you're going to hear a lot more about I think it was the Irish Foreign Minister was talking about this last night you're probably going to a lot more of that rhetoric on both sides but that's prudent given the situation at hand but it's only going to serve more to the kind of sensitivity that Sterling has to this pent up kind of as I said anxious market that we're seeing at the moment which means that it can be quite wippy in price action just wanted to point this out and then bring in a couple of what banks are saying in terms of their forecast if there were a no deal must stress still don't see this for us as the base case scenario but what would a no deal mean well the biggest thing here is the first bullet you can see at the top tariffs on UK exports to the EU of as much as 40% agricultural fisheries would be hit especially hard the EU would lose fishing rights UK waters with future access hinging on annual negotiations trade would be hit by the full force of new customs and veterinary checks at the border lots of different things here so understandably so then a no deal scenario is incredibly negative particularly given the situation at hand with an already impacted COVID economy this point in time hence the reason why most people think a deal ultimately will be cut the reason why I'm pointing this out though is that two banks RBC they've come out and said because I just wanted to give you some context that the pound would be at risk of falling as much as 6% against the dollar if there is a no deal agreement and MUFG warns of an 8% plunge within a week the size being large there's again the outcome is seen unlikely and so there's going to be obviously a much bigger move given that would be a lesser probability outcome than the markets priced and positioned for so a couple things that WTI crude not too much reaction to this overnight but obviously ahead of the DOE's we did have the API's last night we had a build headline of 1.141 million above expectations of a draw 700,000 Cushing draw 1.845 million gasoline in fact the biggest built is April at 6.442 million that is pretty chunky and distillates a bill of 2.316 but Tim's going to go through that a lot more detail over the release and he'll be trading that live for you guys on Amplify live he's also going to do a masterclass on actually DOE's and trading those types of events this evening at 6 p.m. London time for those interested quick look at the calendar for the rest of today then what have we got we've had the Chinese inflation metrics it's very quiet actually in UK European information for this morning so attention to this afternoon we've got the Bank of Canada rate decision not expecting any rate change there rates to remain at 25 basis points and then you've got the DOE's this afternoon at 3.30 so it's a pretty quiet day that would mean then that more than likely people will continue to dwell on the the bigger macro topics at hand stimulus as I've said from Monday still a real definable I guess fundamental factor going forward now we've had some progressive movement on different sides here Mnuchin coming to the table with his own proposal to follow up with some of the concessions and olive branch being offered by the Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell has got these bills in motion a little bit and the markets like what it's heard so far to a certain degree but that does come the point of actual delivery and agreement and that's something we'll be looking out for that any other further vaccine updates of course and then this Brexit situation and again likelihood is is that we'll get some kind of short-term price movement on the back of lots of here say that we'll do the rounds going into them the dinner to be held by Johnson and Randalion later this evening of which then it's either they've got the a deal in principle and perhaps and they need to go over finer detail if so relief rally of sorts probably not what I'm expecting which is probably going to be no definable deal is yet but they're committed to continue the dialogue but if that happens then obviously the market might not like it because if they can't pick up talks straight away the next day because Europe granted they might be bluffing have said they're not willing to discuss it Thursday and Friday when they're going over other topics on the agenda in their European Council meeting and the pound could be susceptible then for some more downside if that was to play it up all right that is it gonna leave it there and let you guys get on with the rest of the day thank you very much any questions I'll see you in the chat room and if I live thanks very much