 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Hey everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, it's CPI report Wednesday and we got some soft numbers. The market taking it and running with it. We're talking about recent highs, S&Ps up 35 points right now. We just hit a recent high of 45, 10, and the S&Ps continuing the run higher really that began around March 10th. Remarkable when you consider for a moment. We had a banking crisis for about three or four days and now the S&Ps are up about 650 points. You're talking about almost a 20% acceleration, man. But hold on to your seats, folks. It's early in the day. We got CPI today. We'll go over the numbers. But the markets, as I mentioned in green territory, you have the NASDAQ 100 up a full percent. 15,410, you get the Dow right now up about 610th percent, 34,676, and how about the Russell? The Russell. Up 31 points, that's 1.6%, and you want to see something, folks. The Russell is now back above where it was at the beginning of that banking crisis. When you collapse down to about 1,700, you got the Russell, what is that, 260 points from that price point, quite the acceleration. When you consider how it really lagged for a while there, where you had the components of the Russell getting hammered on the pullback, and meanwhile, even the Russell above where we were trading at on March 3rd at about 1928. Excuse me, crude catching a bit. 75, 34, we'll talk to our man, Teddy Kegstad, at 40 past the hour, as we do every Wednesday. We always talk some forex, we'll talk some commodities, we'll talk some crude, of course. 40 past the hour. We have our man, Kevin Hicks, coming up at 9.15, a couple good interviews today on a big important day for the markets. You get the gold contract up about $12. We're going to see some action in the dollar, we're going to see some action in the yields. What do you have happening? After CPI, that's pointing to lower inflation, that's going to mean that the Fed potentially does not need to raise at the pace that they may have needed to. The two-year folks on Wednesday of last week, excuse me, maybe Thursday. Yes, on Thursday of last week, when we got ADP private payrolls, okay? The two-year, let's jump to the two-year as we have this conversation. The futures, ZT, T for two, ZT, two-year. The two-year, on July 6th, there it is, that's where we were on the ADPs, okay? Lower price equals higher yield, right? She spiked to lower price, indicating a higher yield scenario. That was off the heels of almost 500,000 jobs added on Thursday for the ADP private payrolls. That correlated to a yield of about 5.1%. I think that number was at, well, I'm pulling up the curve right now, folks, and we got the two-year right now, 4.76%. That is a remarkable acceleration over the period of about a week, man, volatility persisting, but nonetheless, the point is that is quite a cut in rates from where you were Thursday. Now, we've dodged two bullets since then, right? We got the non-farm payrolls number, which resulted in net ads of actually less than 100,000 when you consider the revisions to the prior two months. Farm payrolls, for Friday, 209,000. We had net revisions of 110,000 on the downside. That added about 99 net, but you still had 209,000 jobs added for the month of June, well below the 500,000. Now we get the CPI print. What's the market saying? Well, they shaved about 35 basis points off the two-year, folks, and the span of about four or five days. So they're saying lower rates, consensus seems to be that we're still talking about a July hike, but it's going to be especially interesting. I've been talking about on this program, right? We get two full months of data before the September meeting, so you're going to hear a lot of talk about the September meeting. The September meeting, now we have a Fed meeting, ironically, two weeks from today. And we're already talking about the meeting after that because it seems like if you factor in some of the jobs data, we're still adding 210,000 jobs, we still have an unemployment rate of 3.6%. That's quite an accelerated level of employment and wage growth at a time when we're supposed to be clamping down the economy. So seems like consensus right now from what the Fed speakers have put out as well, very hard to throw the brakes on a message when you put it out there and you want the market to perceive that message. And I mean, a lot of Fed speak was saying we got to go two meetings, right? So I'd say to go no meetings would be quite a drastic change. Not sure this data is enough. It's helpful, but not sure it's enough. So as of now, we're talking about, we'll see what happens on the two year though, right? We just got this data. You see how far it moved in four or five days. What's this going to do over the next two weeks coming into the Fed meeting? That'll be interesting to watch. And then when you go to September, we're going to get July and August data before that September meeting. So don't get too caught up in trying to interpret or guess where we're going to go in September. We'll see where things play out for July. Market seems to think it's a hike. You've got a lot of Fed speak talking about potentially two hikes, very tough to pull it back to no hikes on this number. But then we're going to get a lot of data coming into September. We also get a whole earning season, right? We practically get an entire earning season and two months of economic data before September. That's going to decide where we go in September. But nonetheless, man, drastic move on the yield on the two year, especially when we're now at 4.77%. I think we're approaching 5.1% on that number on Thursday, following the ADP private payrolls, pretty remarkable how far ADP deviates from the other markets there as well. Let's jump over to the VIX as we get the market's trading higher. We're aiming towards a 13 handle just like that. So much for, and you see where it was, right? As you had yield spiking, we had the VIX at 17.08. We suck out all that volatility on the non-farm payroll numbers on Friday. And from there, it's just lower prices, man. We're going back to a 13 handle potentially on the VIX, and I may sneeze here. Forgive me, folks. Excuse me. Allergies raring up a bit this time of year, which is not usually the case. Usually I get some spring allergies around the pollen, but they're getting me this year. They are this time of year. Okay. Let's jump to the CPI report, man. So headline, CPI report shows inflation eased to 3% in June. What's your headline number? Month over month on a core basis, you're talking about 0.2%, which is pretty remarkable when you look at that number. Forgive me for one second as I pull this up. Now, let's talk about economic input. Okay. Let me get back here. Here we go for the live print on Bloomberg. They had a little bit better analysis in terms of where that's coming out. So core services, CPI, below 4%, is what they're looking at now. Those are the numbers that you really want to pay attention to, right? Headline and core fell short of expectations, okay? So you had 0.2% on the month versus 0.3% was what they're expected. Now, these are numbers, folks. When you start getting into it, right? 0.2%. You multiply it times 12. That's 2.4%, man. That is basically in the ballpark. The Fed will love a 2.4% number if that accurately reflected a broad spectrum of the prices. They talk about treasuries in here. This is a live fee that they were going over. Three-month annualized core services, CPI, ex-housing, declined below 2%. Fed's going to like to see that in there. We get PPI tomorrow at 8.30. We'll see where that goes. Yeah, use car prices down. Use car prices down 0.5%, I believe, for the month. And you're talking about down 5%, I believe, for the year. So use car prices continuing to abate. We'll talk a little bit more about this when we get back, folks. We'll talk to our man, Kevin Hanks. We've got our man, Teddy Kegstack, coming up to 40 past the hour. There's a bunch of numbers to break down in the CPI report. Markets, liken it, trade and hire, yields, trading lower. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be back with Kevin. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's End, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's End, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our Community of Traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We jump over to the market. You got the S&Ps right now up about 40 points, 45.13. Basically right near those session highs of 45.15, just made a few minutes ago. And yeah, quite the acceleration breaking down some of those numbers that came out at 8.30 this morning yet again. So the headline, inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases. Seems the consensus right now is that the Fed has forecast too much in terms of a July hike coming, but now the conversation is going to shift to maybe not a pause. Maybe that could be the end. If the data continues like it is, man, we might see some lofty low numbers in July as well. We do get August in there before the September meeting, as I mentioned. So two months of data when you're talking about it. This is the CPI number when you're talking about the headline number is in the bright blue here. The dotted line is the core number minus food and energy, we're at 4.8% and we are dipping lower on the core side. Not surprising that we're tremendously lower on the headline number because we've been helped out over the past 12 months by crude in particular, but that core, we were at 6.6%. September of last year, we're at 4.8% right now. Here's the disclaimer I'll give you. We were at 6.5% in March of 2022, okay? It just took us what almost a year to go down by 1.8% approximately, right? 6.6 minus the 4.8, we're down about 1.8% from the peak. It took us 10 months to be exact. Well, if it takes us another 10 months folks, that would put us at 3% by then. And that would be quite a lofty level. I would argue that you're not gonna get the same acceleration that you just got from 6.6 to 4.8. It seems like that could abate a bit, but we'll see, man, as things coming down, 0.2% on a monthly basis on the core, you annualize that you're at 2.4%. So it is a number to pay attention to, to say the least. And some of the other numbers I was cherry picking over here in Bloomberg that were interesting. When you look at rent, okay? Always a factor, but it is going to persist when you talk about it, okay? Core inflation has remained relatively high level of 4.8% year-over-year largely because of a 7.8% rise in owner's equivalent rent, which assumes that homeowners pay themselves rent. If one excludes homeowners equivalent rent and calculates core US CPI in the same manner as European harmonized CPI, not familiar, but a different calculation, core would be running at about 3% year-over-year. Rent is a big deal, man. Now you jump to the areas that are getting hit hard by rent, by inflation, excuse me, which basically means they're getting hit by rent. Here it is. The cities that are reporting CPI show a good deal of variation with some faster growing coastal metro areas still reporting inflation Miami, 7%. Atlanta 4.6, Seattle 4.6, housing prices. And I joke to a friend, there's an article, I think it was on Bloomberg or maybe the post of the journal recently, the last few days even, talking about pockets of sticky inflation because of elevated breakaway housing prices. And my sarcastic comment, because in that degree, right, is, man, it's tough if you don't own a house, okay? But that is a different deal when you're talking about if you are a homeowner, because yes, it's inflation, but that was these two posts, okay? When you look at the two of them together, do a great job of summing up basically what I was saying in that you don't have to pay yourself rent. Owners' equivalent rent does not exist. If you own a house, you are not paying yourself rent. The market is trying to update that price to give an according CPI print, okay? But when you talk about a paying situation, people aren't feeling that pain as much because it's not actually a cash flow issue, right? You talk about businesses, our own entities, as in our personal finances, if you have cash flow, you're fine. If you have business cash flow, you're fine. So that's not a cash flow deal when you're an owner and you're not having to pay yourself owners' equivalent rent, right? And it's almost the flip side of that where if you have enough people that are homeowners, it's actually helping them out. So I said, yeah, let me tell you, wait till I tell you how rough it is watching home prices continue to climb in the Tampa area. That's not what's crushing inflation right now. The rents are gonna matter, folks, okay? And boy, it's amazing how between generations things shift and home ownership, okay, land ownership is not as easy as it once was, period. End of sentence. Now I'm in Lakeland, Florida, okay? And we still have a lot of land out here. We got a lot of cowland. We got less cowland out here than I used to have though when I first came out here three or four years ago and what are they doing? They're building houses everywhere, folks. Building houses everywhere. So you still have entry-level housing. Let me tell you, man, you see why these areas are exploding, okay? In terms of Florida, Miami, 7%, Tampa, St. Pete is not far behind, okay? Miami's always mentioned number one because that's always the staggering one. If Miami didn't exist, Tampa, St. Pete would be the one they mentioned that's probably near 7% as well. You can get into a starter home here, folks, in a beautiful neighborhood. Your neighborhood might even have a pool in it, et cetera, right, $275,000, beautiful home. Beautiful, brand new home, new construction, whether it's Lenar, D.H. Horton, under $300,000, brand new home, right now I'm talking about, okay? Not two or three years ago, right now, that doesn't exist near a lot of cities, okay? And meanwhile, you're 30, 40 minutes outside of downtown Tampa, Lakeland's a big city as well, Polk County expanding as well. So you see the differences going on there and that's not quite the same when you talk about inflation. So it's interesting when you look at these, right? Owners equivalent rent, rent prices spiking, that's contributing to high numbers for inflation in certain cities. And on the flip side of this though, and I'm gonna try and find the article I was talking about that I read a few days ago because what it was talking about there is that areas that right now are showing low inflation, right? These are the examples of high-inflation areas, Miami, Atlanta, Seattle. There are many areas that are showing low inflation right now that have had steep pullbacks in real estate and you have examples, the article sites people in those areas saying, you know what, I'm not really feeling the decline that you're talking about here. They're not feeling it because it doesn't ease things when you have a collapsing real estate market. Doesn't ease the prices at the grocery store. Meanwhile, it will be indicative of high inflation when you get the print that factors in rental prices, owner equivalent rent, right? But it doesn't mean that the real prices of what you're spending every day are actually coming down just like it means in Miami, the real prices aren't going up 7%, even though real estate prices are still spiking. All right, what else we got here before we come back for the opening bell? Yeah, you get the real fund fund rate. If you use the core CPI, which was at 4.8%, you have the real fund fund rate actually turning positive for the first time in this cycle. And for some reason that's breaking out. I think you need a Bloomberg terminal to click on some of these charts when they do these live streams in here. Yeah, and as I mentioned, many strategists are saying this cooler print is not gonna affect the Fed's expected July print, and most are contemplating what it means for the path forward. Well, as I mentioned, folks, we got two months of data for that path forward. We'll see where we go from there, but you're gonna get July and you're gonna get August. That meaning is gonna be in late September as well. So it'll be interesting as we go forward, but markets, they're loving it. We jump over to notes and bonds. We got higher price, lower yield. You're talking about a 10 year right now, 3.92%. The yield on the 10 year is we got higher price, lower yield. You jump over to the dollar index. When you have lower yield, you're gonna have lower demand for the dollar. Dollar at $104, great data top star, Man Teddy Kegs data as we got some action. He's coming up at 40 past. We'll come back for the open folks. We got markets in positive territory. This is a new recent height. You're talking about going back folks to where? April of 2022. We haven't seen prices at that level since then. Stay tuned folks. We'll be right back. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We got markets open. We're looking at an S&P up about 9.10%. We open at 45.12 right now. You got the Nasdaq 100. We're up by 1.1%. 15,430, you got the Dow lagging a bit, up 6.10% in the Russell, up 1.4%. Give him back some of the move though. Russell just traded off 11 points off that high. We check in on the dollar index right now. We got lower yields. You got a weaker dollar. Dollar at 109.68 right now. You jump over to those yields, the 10-year. 111.30, you're up by 22 basis points and you're talking about a 10-year yield right now. 3.9%. We talked about the two-year, 4.75. We jump back to that two-year real quick. Yeah, 101.28 up about nine ticks right now in the two-year. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. See how we're trading. You got Amazon shares up 1.6%. They even catch a bit. It's prime day, man. Have you bought something on prime? I might do a little bit of checking out later. I might. I was listening yesterday to Bloomberg. They were talking about, I think they expect almost like a 9% or 10 or 11% growth from last year staggering how these public companies, man, just continue to cross 10% growth when they do such large numbers. But nonetheless, we talked about on Monday how you had the rebalancing going on, right? Preventing some of the companies in the NASDAQ 100 from representing such a large share of that index and potentially some of the ideas floated around was talking about no individual equity, potentially having a greater impact than 4.5% or something like that. So some of those big stocks traded down Monday. Point being, didn't even take 48 hours, folks. It got it all back. Amazon trades to a 125 handle and just like that, we just pushed a 131 handle for Amazon shares. You jump over to the big dog, Apple. Apple shares up about 8.10%. They give up the spike that they had right on that open for Apple, 189.52. You jump to Microsoft, that Activision Blizzard deal looks to be getting done. Microsoft continuing the run, 1.6%. And yeah, as I mentioned, ATVI is their symbol. There's the pop for you. Up to 92, you're back to 90 bucks. You know, this one's interesting. So Buffett got in here, right? Risk reward wise, I remember him talking about, saying, you know, even if this deal doesn't go through, it's not a bad price for this equity. Risk reward is what he was taking a look at. And nonetheless, if you wrote those coattails, quite an acceleration yesterday as you're up to 90 bucks, you're off a percent today. But back to some of the magnificence seven, we jump over to the Nvidia shares, up 1.3%. We jump over to Meta shares, up 1.25%. We jump over to Tesla shares, up 1.75%. Let's see how some of the banks are trading today. JPMorgan up half a percent. Wells Fargo, 1.7%. Check it out, Citi, 1.9%. Yeah, look at this, Bank of America. Whoops, Bank of America. Look at these banks, man, up 1.9% as well. Yeah, banks are liking the idea that inflation might be going away as well. Interesting to see where this market has legs to right now, because it's a good print, man. But boy, it's been quite a run in these markets as we continue to push highs at 45, 14. We are stones throw away from all-time highs, man. Did you have all-time highs on your calendar when we started the year, 1,000 S&P points away from that price level? Not many people did, man, but it's been quite a run, 45, 13 right now in those S&Ps. And yeah, so what are we talking about? I mean, percentage-wise, what is that? Well, we're less than 7% away from all-time highs in this market. Remarkable. All right, let's see what else we had pulled up. You know what? Let's talk a little bit of poker. I've been talking poker, man, and they get the World Series going on, and we are at 149 people left in the main event. Some big names still in there, some big names dropping. That's your chip leader right there. What's his name? Let's see. Zachary Hall. He is chip leading, and yeah, you got a couple of people in there. He's got 16.3 million chips. I think you started with 60,000 chips. I think is what everybody started with, if I'm correct, 60,000. So in theory, if you have 6 million chips, you've basically amassed 100 people at this time. Let's see what the average chip stack is right now. So the average chip stack right now is 4 million chips. There are 602 million chips in play. Okay, so that gives you some context when you see something like this, folks. This guy's the chip leader. There's 149 people left, okay? I think Money Maker was busted yesterday, unfortunately. There is a lot of work to do in these tournaments, folks. Sometimes now it becomes very real once you start getting to 149 people. That's when things become real. I've played tournaments, not for $10,000. I have played tournaments for $10,000, not with 10,000 people. I've played a tournament with $10,000. I think I got 1,400 people. Something like that in the Bahamas. Maybe it even had more. Remember the tournament I played at one point. First place was 3 million, second was 2 million. Third was a million. I think I finished like 100 in something place. I made the money. And so I've been in these situations, right? Where it's like, okay, 100 people I can do. 10,000 people, it's a lottery ticket, man. You enter, you play your best, you see what happens, 100 people, 150 people. These players are already guaranteed 58,500. They all put in 10 grand. So not bad. They're all gonna make at least 50 grand. That's peanuts compared to making the final table where it's a million dollars almost up top. They got 12 million. But the point being, this gentleman's got 16 million chips and to win the tournament, he needs to get 600 million chips. So there's a long way to go, even for those chip leaders. But what happens in poker, when he's got the most chips, he can apply the most pressure to some of those other players. And yeah, we'll see where we go from there. Yeah, that was a good trip, man. I was in, as at the Atlantis of all places, beautiful resort. If you've never been to the Atlantis, folks, boy, it was not cheap back then. And I think I was there in 2009, I think was the year that I was there. Poker was really at its prime at those years. Online poker especially. The prior record for the main event was in 2006 for some context, right? There were some big numbers in 2006, 2007, eight, nine. Things got shut down online in April of 2011. Okay, that's when the world kind of changed. And yeah, so what happens, you got to imagine, right? So we're at the Atlantis. Poker Stars is running this tournament, that's an epic site. I think they're bringing something like I told you, 1,500 poker players in for the week. So they dominate the Atlantis casino. The casino is still open. They don't take up every single room, right? So the first night I'm there and I'm getting ready for the tournament and I'm playing some $5 Blackjack or something like that having a beer. And it was amusing that I had, I'm playing, there's another guy down the end, he's playing the, and then there's just a retired couple in their 60s and we're telling them all, oh yeah, you're gonna have about 1,500 poker players showing up tomorrow that are all playing a $10,000 poker tournament. And it is a plethora of gamblers that descend on that Atlantis. Now that changed, they don't do that anymore. But yeah, that was good times, man. It was good times. I had my friends down there for a week and what I would do is, and just so you know how these work folks, okay? A lot of people don't pay the $10,000 for this tournament. They play their way into it. That's how I played my way into the $10,000 tournament at the time. And when I won it, it included a week hotel, it included $2,000 of spending money and it included a $10,000 poker tournament. So I won a $15,000, $16,000 package and the way they do it is you enter a tournament for 100 bucks and what do they do? One out of 160 gets their entry into the big tournament. So that's, it's called the satellite tournament. So a lot of players that are playing in these big tournaments, 10,000, 20,000, they run tournaments to get you into those tournaments. Makes more sense, right? Cause even you gotta have a lot of money, man, to gamble a $10,000 poker tournament. We're basically nine out of 10 people lose all that 10 grand and walk away empty handed. Nonetheless, we'll be coming back folks. We'll talk some markets. We'll talk some currencies with our man, Teddy Kegstapp. Talk some sports and come out with us. Don't miss it. We'll be right back with Teddy. 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We jump around to some of those bank stocks, keeping our Apple shares, catches a bit yet again, right? Up 1.4%, you're $2.63% in the positive. Always amazed, what is that at? And that's at almost $40 billion in market cap, $2.60, remarkable. We jump over to the dollar index, dollar index, trade and lower at 100.93. And let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegsdad, folks. You can check out Teddy's outstanding newsletter, the Tiger Forex report. He puts it out every Monday, it's a weekly issue. He puts out updates throughout the week when warranted. He's got a couple great subscriber webinars that you automatically gain access to. If you sign up, you get a 30 day money back guarantee. You can check out the newsletter for a month. You can check out the archives of the webinars. If it's not something you think you can use, maybe you're not gonna trade forex, but I encourage you to check it out, folks, because I think there's a tremendous amount of information in this newsletter that he puts out every week, even beyond trading the forex pairs themselves. Teddy Kegsdad, we got quite a morning going on. Good morning. Good morning, Tommy. The US dollar's getting hammered today. Yeah, great day to have you on, man, as we have some action in the CPI. We got rates going lower, and we got the dollar going lower. What do you think the action and the trends? What do you wanna kick things off? Maybe the dollar index? Sure, well, the CPI, obviously, is something that has a lot to do with the way trading is going this morning, and I think that the numbers being kind of overplayed, if you will, by the way the markets are reacting right now. I mean, the reality is you have a number. Is it tracking in the right direction? Yes, but it's still a situation where it's like, instead of re-rending somebody at 65 miles an hour, you hit them at 64 miles an hour. The fact is you're still re-rending somebody, so I don't think that the markets are going to maintain this trend. I think it's one of those, the number came out, it's being reactive right now. We'll see how it pans out over the next couple of sessions. And as far as CPI, it's tracking in the right direction for us, but German CPI came out yesterday and it was extremely high, and their economy's crumbling. So that's gonna have an impact, definitely in the longer term, if that continues to trend that way, it's gonna impact our CPI as well. So I wouldn't get too very jovial, if you will, about that there's the rate hikes and everything is coming into play and doing the right thing when it comes to the CPI numbers and the inflation numbers. Yeah, it will be interesting in terms of we have a Fed meeting two weeks from today, and it seems like the messaging was pretty strong that they're gonna hike and even listen to some of the analysts this morning, they're saying it's probably not a big enough surprise number to change that for July, but then we get two months of data before they really get September, in terms of we get the July data, we get the August data. So there's a lot of data, even before we get into September, let alone a whole earning cycle that comes with it, and we'll see where we go from there. What do you think about this price level in general, Teddy, with the dollar index? I'm getting a little technical here, but just when I put this dollar index on any chart, really, whether you're talking about weekly, daily, I mean, you're back to levels, right? That we were chopping around April and May, you're back to the levels we were at in January. Do you see this as an area of potential support? Do you see that? Is that the critical area? The breakthrough we go lower? How do you look at this area? Because as a technician, and I like the fundamentals as well, but that's kind of a cool area we're at right now, kind of right to those lows that we had in April and back in February for the dollar index. Right, well, I don't think that we're really, I don't think there's a new trend emerging. I think what we're doing is we're pushing the upper boundaries of the range that we've been in, you know, respective of whatever currency cross you're talking about, and even the markets in general, you know? I mean, the reality is we've been in a big sideways trade for months now, and I think that right now, especially like when you see how the euro is breaking out to the upside, the pound's breaking out to the upside, it's pushing that upper boundary of the range that it's been in for months. Do I think it's gonna be an escalated trend as we have a new thing in motion for months? I don't think so, you know? I mean, we have, the question is, are we gonna have one more rate hike or not before September? Whether we do or not, we're still ahead of the curve when it comes to other central banks. You have the Bank of Canada that has a rate decision coming up today later on, and you also have the Bank of, excuse me, the ECB that we know is most likely gonna raise rights at their next meeting. So this is all gonna balance out in the short run, meaning that you're gonna see a weakness against the dollar because we know that there's rate hikes coming from these other central banks. Whether we pull the trigger or not, you know, that will influence when things happen as we get closer to that meeting, you know? And especially as we get to the last one, we have a distance between September, you know? That's where we have that two month lag. We'll see if that's when we have any real trends, meaning that you'll see the euro and the pound really exercising strength and the dollar index getting hit. I don't see that that's really gonna happen though, you know? I mean, the dollar index, it's not that the dollar is so strong, it's just that right now these other currencies, our news reactionary gaining strength, meaning that it's only a short-term knee-jerk reaction. Overall, the economies, if you look at the EU, are collapsing. It's not sustainable, you know? Their numbers are not gonna be trending. I heard you before I came on the air saying, well, there's a lot of numbers that are gonna, you know, see what the Fed's gonna do in the fall. Well, the numbers in Europe have not been tracking in the right direction, you know? And I think you're gonna see that that continue, you know? And if that does, you know, you're gonna see a lot of pullback or strength come back to the US dollar. So meaning don't get too excited on these breakouts right now. If anything, I'd be looking to take profits, you know? Nice. Sorry, I lost you there at the end, Teddy. Okay, that's right. No, and that's where I'm looking at is right now. I think right now you have to look to, start looking to take profits and raise your stops. You know, don't get married to these breakouts is what I'm saying. Because the volatility is starting to spike up. But if you look at the moves, they're not really that severe, it's just they've been so tight and range-straighty that it looks like they're really, you know, really doing something right now. Yeah, especially compared to kind of the run we had the last couple of years. And I was joking with one of my best buddies, Teddy, in Switzerland. And he's getting married in September in Spain. And so I was sending him some dollars for a share of a house over there in September. And he, and I got 110 on the Euro. And I was telling him I wanted 95 because I'm gonna be the best man in the wedding, right? And he tells me I'm lucky that I'm not getting 160 because that's where it was recently. And it kind of just put in context though in terms of just like you're saying, I mean, we've gotten these moves, but boy, when you back it up, even five years, six years, pretty remarkable how large some of these moves have been. And then you go this year alone, I have the Euro up, for instance, we're between about 105 and 110 the whole year, basically. And meanwhile just kind of puts things in context of, yeah, we were at 160, which is crazy to think about let alone 95, not that long ago in some of those currencies. And of course today I got to send him a text saying, thanks for 110 because the Euro's at 111 already today. No, but I kid. What about crude, Teddy? Let's talk a little bit of crude, man, because we got a little bit of a bid in crude. We're at $75, we're climate higher today, we just got a 76 print. What do you think of the price of crude? Well, see now, this gets up to the whole range trade thing, which I just talked about with the currencies. Today we broke out to the upside. This was a level, that swing high that was established last month is a critical resistance area. So the question is, can we close where we're at or higher today? If we do that, then that means we have a potential I think to still push maybe up towards the $80 mark, you know? I mean, that's, but once again, if the markets are still in a range trade trend really, then that means you don't get married to this spike, it's gonna be a head fake, you know? So I think you have to see how much these markets all line up, meaning like are they gonna spike into these new highs and new lows, or are they gonna start to really surge, you know? So we need to close around $76, I would say, in oil and then see if it can actually hold a trade up around the 78, 79 level. I don't see that happening. I see more of it spiking up and then we're tracing back down. Teddy, I appreciate the nine minutes as always, man. It was a quick segment. I look forward to talking to you next week, brother. Sounds good, take care, Tommy. Okay, have a great one. We'll be right back, folks. Trading Room, the Tiger's Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. 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First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets basically to the tick session highs right now. S&Ps up an even 1%, up 45 points. Remarkable, right? 45 points is a full percent right now. We were at almost 3,500 where 35 points was a full percent. The market's up more than 1,000 points off of the lows. More than 1,000 points off of the lows. Remarkable, Ron. And you're talking about now that we're approaching 700 points off of where we were on March 13th, only a few days after the banking crisis began. Remarkable, that the Fed basically pushed it far enough where we got some of the biggest banks collapsing and that was the moment that things somewhat started to turn. We thought they were gonna turn to the negative side and no, that was the turn to reverse things to the positive side from the markets of banking crisis. Nonetheless, NASDAQ 100, you're up 1.3%, we'll call it almost back to the session highs that we had in June 16th. We jump over to the Dow, up 300, we'll call it, and the Russell gives back some of the gains, but still up by 1.1% right now. We jump over to yield, see how we're moving. Come on, put it back to a five minute basis. Yeah, we're climbing towards the highs of the session almost 111.30 right now. You're up by 22 ticks on the 10 year. You jump over to the two year right now, the two year, hang in it where it was basically in the two year again, 4.75% down from over 5% when we were back on that Thursday acceleration. Remarkable move for a two year treasury over that period of time. All right, so we kick into some earnings, man. You get some airlines, right? You get Delta tomorrow out with their numbers. What do we got? We got Pepsi in there. I appreciate Jimmy posting some of those numbers in there. We got Progressive kicking things off as well. And on Friday, you get the beginning of the banks, man. We get Citi, we got Wells Fargo, State Street, BlackRock, JP Morgan. Is that right? Am I reading that right? I sure am JP Morgan on Friday. All right, we kick it off, man. The banks coming at you. Yeah, they sure are. That's crazy. All right, it's quicker than I even imagined. So you got JP Morgan, you got UnitedHealth, you got Citi, you got Wells Fargo on Friday. You got PPI data tomorrow. Don't forget, we got a Fed meeting two weeks from today. And we got our man Basil Chapman. Coming up next, folks, with the Tiger Technicians Hour. Stay tuned, live programming all day. Appreciate you tuning in to kick off your Wednesday. I'll be back tomorrow. We got PPI data tomorrow as well. Stay tuned for my man Basil. He's coming up right now. Have a great day.