 Good day fellow investors. Yesterday Amfi released a new company presentation. So after two years of almost radio silence, Amfi has been releasing, communicating to investors, investors' presentations, investors' conferences and now a new presentation, going into the earnings release. So this new presentation gives a lot of new data, gives a good overview what the company is doing. So feel free to check it out on the company's investor relation website. I will not be going into all the details, but what the presentation allows me to do is analyze expected margins for fiscal year 2018, so for the upcoming years. Amfi is in the Basmati business. Basmati takes one year to age, 12 months on average. So the cycle is pretty visible up front. So we can see what will happen to Amfi's earnings in the next 12 months. Given that I have the data about last year now, I can analyze and estimate margins and earnings per share for the next year. So that's what I'll do in this video. Plus there is a nice map for the Indian New Distribution Centers, which is very interesting and some insight on the Basmati rice market in general. So let's start with the distribution centers. You can see that in two years Amfi has increased its distribution all over India practically. There is still plenty of room to grow. Now I don't know India so in detail, perhaps someone from India can give us more insight in the regional distribution that Amfi is following here. However 15 centers is better than only one center. And given the growth that given the growth the Indian market is expected to provide in the future as the country develops, as there is more economic power, because Basmati rice is a premium brand. You eat it for parties, you eat it for to feast. So it's really a premium eating category. And as more people have money, more there will be more demand for Basmati rice. Average yearly growth has been 16% for Indian Basmati rice sales, which is very, very good. And this is already a very important chart here because it shows us the price of Basmati. It's much higher than other specialty rice as you can see here. But what's important is that for fiscal year 2017 that ended March 2017 for Amfi, the average price was $1,150. The last month in March the average price was $1,500. So that's already a significant increase. If we check if we check Faos Basmati rice prices, we can see that in March the price was $1,078, which means the prices were already growing. But Amfi has a premium on it as I see here. So as prices increased another 10% in April, thus in fiscal year 2018, I think we can take $1,600 as an average Basmati selling price for Amfi for fiscal 2018. This is 50% higher than the average in fiscal 2017. And these are the numbers that we'll take to calculate the earnings estimate for 2018. Other interesting presentation data you can see here globally diversified customer base broad product portfolio. I think that every one of the viewers will be familiar with this retail companies here and probably you are also buying there. Now back to earnings. For the first half of the year 2017 trailing 12 months earnings were 542 million on the 1,100 per ton Basmati price. Revenue growth in the next six months was 2% as the company announced in May. So we can use this number as the fiscal 2017 revenue. Now let's apply the 50% increase in Basmati prices on these numbers. So as Amfi derives 66% of its revenue from the sale of Basmati rise, thus 66% of the trailing revenue of 542 million is 357 million. Increase that by 50%. We get 536 million. Increase add the 184 million in sales that's not from Basmati rise. And we get to a revenue of 720 million for 2018. That's a 33% increase. On top of the Basmati price increase Amfi has been increasing sales at around 15% per year over the last six, seven years. New acquisition in Germany that will increase sales, new contracts, higher demand from China. So I would expect another 10% increase in volume to Amfi's sales. So the total number would be around 790 million in sales for 2018. Now the next thing we have to see is the margins. And I have compared here the margin increases in the past years depending on Basmati price increases. So from 2012 to 2014 Basmati prices increased 12% and margin improved 60 basis points. From 2013 to 2014 Basmati price increased 14% and margins improved 110 basis points. From 2014 to 2015 Basmati prices grew 5% and margin increased 50 basis points. Given the 50% increase in Basmati prices I would expect an improved margin of at least 250 basis points in comparison to 2017. Thus in 2017 the margin was 13.2%. I would add a 15.7% EBITDA margin on Amfi's revenue. So on the 70, 792 million in revenue EBITDA at 15.7% margin would be 124 million. So EBITDA 122 million taking off the interest expense of 27 million which could be lower because interest rates in India have fallen by 150 basis points in the last year, earnings before tax 95 million, tax 15% average in the last three years because the company's headquarters are in Dubai for tax reasons, net income should be around 80 million. Divided by the 35 million shares outstanding earnings per share of 2.28. At current stock prices the forward fiscal 2018 price earnings ratio is 2.92. So we have a price earnings ratio of 2.92 for 2018. To add this will improve Amfi's credit scores extremely with net debt to EBITDA estimated below 2 is currently 2.6 and interest coverage going higher than 4. Very important numbers especially for institutional investors. So all this research leads my mind to one joke and that's the joke where two investors walk down the street and one says look there's a $20 bill lying on the ground and the other says oh no way if it would be a $20 bill somebody would already have picked it up. This in this case I see a $20 bill lying there just waiting to be picked up. I hope that in the next 6-12 months as Amfi delivers, as the numbers are confirmed, as everything's going on that can be predicted because of the nature of the Basmati rice market gives investors the certainty about the company IPO five years ago so a lot of information constantly there risking itself. So I think it's time that people pick up the $20 bill. Thank you for watching leave your comments below do research if you have something to share add please let us know we are here to share our knowledge in order to lower our risks and increase our returns. Don't forget to subscribe click like if you liked the video and I'll see you in the next video