 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing okay. It's actually Thursday, right? It's actually Thursday. Tomorrow is Good Friday. The markets are closed. For those who are celebrating the Easter holiday, obviously happy Easter for all you guys who are not celebrating the Easter holiday. You guys have a three day weekend and hopefully you guys will get a good amount of rest. So hopefully you guys will enjoy your weekend. So what the heck is going on with the market, right? So here's kind of where I'm sitting. Okay, so we're getting this really lethargic meltup. Okay, both in the indexes, all the major indexes, the S&P, the Dow Jones industrial average, and the Nasdaq 100. Okay, and if you look at the bars, just to really, really kind of dissect what's going on, you really start seeing these really, really thin bars. Okay, we normally would be disgusting the Nasdaq 100 because that's kind of the metric I use to gauge the stock that I trade. But if you look at the Dow, you're getting the same thing, smaller channels, smaller bars, okay, smaller areas of interest, and the market is moving up. And all you hear, especially from a lot of, you know, especially a lot of my friends, a lot of desks, you hear how quiet the market is. Okay, and you see on social media, for example, of how choppy the market is. And the most ironic part is, we're just going straight up, right? We're going straight up. There absolutely is no fear in the market. There absolutely no reason to sell the market. People, you know, the perma bear case is always, well, wait till earnings, well, they're going to cloud earnings, they're going to be bad earnings, and we're going to start going, you know, down and yada, yada, yada. But again, until that happens, okay, this is just an opinion, right? This is just an opinion, and the perma bull could turn around and say, well, yeah, we're not going down, you know, every single news outlet is trying to bring us down, and they're saying that gravity is going to eventually kick in, and all the bad stuff that's going to happen, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, we're at all times. And they're right too, okay, they're right as well. And it got me thinking about something, and, you know, for example, Thursday's session, which is actually today's session, but Thursday's session was ridiculously quiet, okay, probably, probably the most quiet session that we've seen, I would say top three for 2019, right, quietest sessions. And if you guys remember, pre-market, I put in the Twitter feed, live Twitter feed, and I put in the stock towards feed, and obviously in our live webinar, a whole bunch of, you know, a whole bunch of pivots, right, literally a whole bunch of pivots, and literally like none of them triggered, right, none of them triggered, none of them confirmed, but again, that was 100, right, everything is good. And the most amazing part, I started thinking about this, and there's something that traders use as a very, very big crutch, and it's a bare market type of crutch, and it's called cash as a position, right, guys, you hear it all the time, when the market's going down, and you know, nobody knows how to trade on the short side, blah, blah, blah, blah, they always say cash as a position, right, you know, cash as a position, and what else, sit on your hands, right, all that social media stuff. And I always turn around, and I say, well, I never understood that whole situation, you know, just because the market's not going up, well, why is cash as a position, you know, God gave you, you know, two eyes, right, two ears, two hands, two feet, you know, you've got to trade both sides of the market, and I never understood that, right, because again, the market's the market, the way the market goes up, this opportunity market goes down, but when the market starts going up, right, the market starts going up, and you see this linear move, right, and a lot of days on a linear move, it's very, very tradable, but once the market hits some really aggressive interval of tightness, it becomes overbearing, and when you look at the same statement as sitting on hands versus my God, the market is very, very choppy, well, what's the difference, right, think about it, what's the difference, the bull market case is called a chopping, because, well, why should I put my money at risk if the money, you know, if the market is not giving me what I want? The bear market case is, well, the market's going down, I don't want to trade the short side, I got to sit on my hands, right, one of them is a subconscious crush. Now, my question is, okay, where is the fine line between fiscal responsibility actually sitting on your hands waiting for a good opportunity, or the idea of, well, the market's going down, I don't know what the hell I'm doing, subconsciously I'm afraid to say it out loud, I really need some help trading on both sides of the market, but again, I'm going to use cash as a position as my hand to kind of give myself the flexibility to be in the misery of company with a whole bunch of traders that don't know what the hell they're doing, so what's the fine line, like, what's the fine line? And again, I think taking the bear market case, just for new traders, I think the idea of cash as a position makes sense mentally too, but I think, like I said before, I think it's a cry for help that you're not comfortable with your process yet or develop the process yet that is going to put you in a situation that you could benefit from the downside of the market. But what happens when there's a meltup, right? What happens when the meltup and the range is tight? And now it's called churning, right? It's called churning, it's called choppiness. So why are you so not afraid, right? Why are you so still eager to put your money at risk, right? Because we always put our money at risk. Why are you so still eager to trade the market on the way up with a chop factor in tight ranges, and you don't call that sitting on hands, you don't call that cash as a position, but you are willing to sit out the market for two, three months if the market starts drifting low, right? It's a very, very honest question. And there's a fine line between having a process in common sense, right? So we are very, very strong when the market comes in, when the ranges collapse, because again, as the old saying goes, you take the stocks, take the staircase up, and they take the elevator down. And sometimes the elevator breaks, and there's a free fall, okay? When you have a linear meltup, okay? And again, most days it's tradable, but a day like today, Thursday, right? Thursday session, it was so unbearable because nothing was moving, okay? And here was the question. Here's the fair question. What's the difference between sitting on your hands in a bear market or sitting on your hands in a bull market that's linear up, and that's not giving you a really clean path to the goal line? Well, one of them is a crutch, and the other one is a fiscal responsibility. I spoke to several of my friends via text message today, and they all expressed the same concerns, okay? We're running to the point in the market now that it's okay, okay? That it's okay to hold on to your positions because the masses will bail you out, because again, look at the linear move, right? It's okay. And the more and more we got to speaking about this and really understanding kind of what we're up against, you know, that looks like the market is setting up for an incredibly aggressive rug pull, right? An incredibly aggressive rug pull because when people are getting too comfortable and they're willing to trade in a choppy environment, whether the choppy environment is one day, two days, five days, whatever the case may be, they're almost saying to themselves, I'm willing to put my money at risk because I believe I could squeeze water out of a rock. When they don't squeeze water out of a rock, okay, it becomes the churn factor, but they're okay with it, right? They're okay with it because the next day will be different, quote, unquote, it'll be different. And the more and more we're seeing action like this, the more and more we're seeing a linear move without a lot of participation, it's starting to get more and more obvious to me that there is going to be a very, very significant rug pull. Okay, I'm not saying it's imminent, okay? Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying it's imminent. I'm still looking on the long side. Matter of fact, I keep on making the really aggressive comment because I want everybody, especially to know in the live webinar, until the market stops going up, until there is not a buyer strike, we continue to play the bounces off the ranges and we continue to buy the ranges to the upside. But until that happens, and again, every single day, I'm starting to get more and more evidence. Again, a couple of days ago, you had this really aggressive move in Amazon, really, really aggressive move. Okay, it rests one day. Okay, it rested again today. And you could make a case, well, it's going to wake up Monday and it's going to start going up. But more and more evidence, not just Amazon. We're looking at stocks, for example, like NVIDIA, right? We're looking at stocks, for example, like NVIDIA. They just stop moving up totally, Alibaba. They just kind of stop going up again. Not going down. Nobody's saying it's going down, but they stop going up. And the one thing, one week, it could be a coincidence. Second week, tighter contracting channels, it could be a little bit of a theme. By the third week, if we start seeing the same thing over and over and over again, now it's starting to be a problem, maybe not a financial problem just yet, but it's probably to start turning it into a problem. The only thing that I'm really still giving the bull case kind of the benefit of the doubt is there is an absolutely no selling pressure, like zero, there's absolutely zero selling pressure in the markets. And again, you can turn around and say, Dan, there's absolutely nothing wrong. I mean, look at Disney, look at Apple, right? Look at Apple, look at Intel, right? Look at Intel, look at Microsoft breaking out. Man, oh, what are you talking about? There's nothing imminent. There's no danger signs. There's no warning labels. There's no antennas that should be going up. All you're doing, Dan, you're missing the big picture. You're missing the big picture. This is a generational rally, and it's going to continue forever, and we're all going to live better, and food's going to taste better. We're all going to be better looking. Oh, God, you're missing the whole bull. Maybe I am, maybe I'm not. It's not put, you know, it's not derailing me from trading every day. It's just derailing me from putting on extraordinary risk. When I see the really aggressive names, right? The really aggressive names that led us up, they're just not giving that extra push. And again, maybe it's just a rotation into other technology names, which is fun. You go back to the old world names, the Intel's, the Cisco's, the Microsoft. I'm all good with that, right? I'm all good with that. Who am I to stop a good rally? Again, I think I've been doing this now for a very, very long time, and I kind of know, or at least I'm really starting to really understand where the perfect utopia does not lie, right? Where the perfect society does not exist. And again, the reason why I've really held on to this longevity for years and years. Yeah, it's number one. Yeah, I have a pretty decent process that works pretty, pretty well. But I'm very, very good at playing devil's advocate. Okay, I'm incredibly good at it. And I would rather be safe than sorry. So for example, yesterday, we were, it was a pivot to the upside on Apple. And there's news that came out that, you know, we got, you know, a little bit earlier from our squawk box, then it was disseminated. And it was a negative iPhone news, blah, blah, blah, blah. I said, hey, better be safe than sorry. Get out of your position, blah, blah, blah. Stock goes down 60 cents. The news really doesn't get disseminated, blah, blah, blah. Very, very aggressively, the stock takes out highs. But again, at one point that you completely disregard everything, right? At one point as a trader that you told yourself and you say, you know what, risk is on. And risk is on until it's not. At one point, right? The China headlines, everybody's numb already too. We're going to get a deal. We're going to get a deal. We're going to get a deal. Every freaking five minutes is a headline that we're going to get a deal. Okay, nobody wants to hear about the labor pains. It shows the baby. Okay, forget about the, so people are getting numb to, people are getting numb to headlines. People are getting numb to the Fed. People are getting numb to any scenario of a potential back test in any asset class. Okay. And all we are willing to do right now is trade every single day because the scoreboard says it's green. Now, again, how long can you justify, right? The quote unquote chop or quote unquote sit on hands again, one, you know, one half the other. Okay. How do you, how long do you justify everything? And the moral of the story is very simple. I think the longer we go with contracting channels melting up, I do believe there's going to be a very, very significant rubble. Okay. It's just, it's just, it's just my opinion. I'm probably wrong. I'm an idiot. Right. All that good stuff. But the more I see what I'm, what I'm seeing on a daily basis, the more I'm really struggling to believe that the risk is actually on. And now it's just more rotation to specific, specific names. And until that changes, I have to be a little wary that, you know what, any day, and again, they're not going to tap your on your shoulder and say, hey, by the way, we're going to pull the plug. And, you know, for example, in the video, it's going to be down 10 and Netflix is going to be 12. And, you know, Amazon's going to be down seven. Nobody's going to tell you that. There's going to pull the plug. So I think going into the new week, we have to be conscious. We really do guys. Again, it's not the money we make that's, that brings value to your account. It's the money you save. And the more I am exposed to the markets that the years that go by and more aggressively. And yes, I like the way the banks are setting up and I like the way old world technology setting up and stuff. It's just something about the last couple of days of really, really tight action of the majority names that I follow. It's really starting to not necessarily scream warning signs, but it's getting to that point that I'm really starting to really look at the bottom channels and understanding once they get confirmed, it's going to be very, very aggressive to the downside. But until that happens, again, long live, right? Long live the linear market. So going into next week and again, you guys have an awesome, awesome weekend. Have an awesome, awesome Easter. Don't eat a lot of candies, right? Allegedly. But again, just remember we talked about and when you're looking at setups, especially if you're considering swinging any setups, just take into consideration what we're talking about. Remember last week, we talked about the weekly view on the NASDAQ 100. I still think there's a shot we get to this 89 area, right? There's a shot we get to this 89 area as you can see the top of it. But again, trade individual names, take cash flow and everything. Use break even as you stop because again, when it turns and again, gravity is very, very real. But when it turns, it's going to be pretty aggressive. And the last thing you want to do is give up a month or two month worth of trading in your portfolio in one day. You're going to see it happen. It's happened to so many people. And again, there's no reason to get a lesson, right? There's no reason to learn a lesson when you potentially could see the freight train coming. So let me give you guys some ideas for next week, right? Let me give you guys some ideas that I do like. I actually like some. I mean, again, it's hard for me to turn around. It's like short, short the market, short the market. I'm, you know, I still like the long side, but it's starting to get very, very thin, right? If you'll notice, you're not going to see like a roll crew on my watch list or Boeing or Facebook or an Amazon or a square. Again, that's the problem. Again, big moves, digestion moves are kind of going sideways a little too long for my liking, but I do like some names and I want to start out with Tesla. So this potentially could be really good, right? Again, I don't need many names to do what they have to do, but this potentially could be pretty good. Does everybody see the daily chart here, right? So you see the top of this candle, 275. The next day's high 27480. Today's high 27484, right? Everybody see that, right? Look at the 60 minute view. Look how tight it's getting guys, right? Look how tight it's getting. So again, we don't need a bull market or bear market. We just need confirmation. If Tesla can get above and start putting in a new base of above 275, you could get a really, really aggressive run prior to earnings. Again, I know the bear case is going to zero. I know the bull case is going to 5,000. Let's just forget about that for a second. Okay, let's talk about strictly from the trading aspect. If Tesla could put in a new base and start building above that 275 area, I think you got a legitimate shot at 278, 281. And if it gets really, really aggressive, again, if you look at where potential, measured potential moves Tesla can get, you know, traded right to the 50, traded right to the 50. So why can't trade to the 50 again, right? So I'm definitely, definitely watching Tesla. I kind of like Bank of America, you know, Bank of America looks really good. Financials wake up like once a year. Okay. B of A looks really, really good. Keep an eye on this thing above this 30 and a quarter area. I kind of like that. Disney, man. Again, you know, they're going to put Netflix out of business. I doubt it. You know, again, the same, you know, again, is there crossover for Marvel this, that, the other? Yeah. Okay. But again, people who love Netflix are going to have Netflix. So they got some of Disney streaming services as well. And they're going to have some of Amazon Prime. People love their entertainment. Again, the demise of Netflix is a little premature. I think, you know, I think Disney goes a bunch of 134, 135 call buying, especially this week. Again, if Disney could just start reclaiming that 133 level, it's going to start its next leg up. So keep an eye on that. You know, I like, you know what? Let me get back to Boeing. I actually kind of like Boeing. You know, as long as more bad news doesn't come out, I actually do kind of like Boeing. But I like it above this channel. If you guys notice, Boeing hit this channel as high at 384.65. This candle here is 384.20. If Boeing can just reclaim the supply right here and no mega bad, really horrific news come out and starts reclaiming 385, there's no reason why, assuming the market continues to melt up, there's absolutely no reason that Boeing can't get above this, you know, 385 potentially go to a 50 day moving average, roughly around the 396 area. So keep an eye on that. Devon Energy, you know, not usually a name we would put on our active Daily Pivot Watch, but it actually looks pretty good. I mean, it hits supply, right? It hits supply here at 3382. Today's high is also 3382. If it could just start building above this, that 3382, 3390 area, you could get a next leg up. So keep an eye on that. And I kind of like this Pinterest. This week, a lot of these, you know, crazy IPOs, I'd never heard of them. One was like the Africa, Amazon. Why can't they just use Amazon? Right? And I don't say, why does it have to be in Africa and Amazon? Where's the Uzbekistan Amazon? Right? Where's the Bulgarian Amazon? Why can't they just use Amazon? But Pinterest, right? Pinterest, my wife uses Pinterest. She loves the decorating stuff on Pinterest. It's actually pretty cool. I actually heard of it. So it actually held up fairly well. I would like to see Pinterest, you know, reclaim, kind of reclaim today's highs. It was pretty strong the whole day. If it could reclaim today's highs of 25, 18, 25, 20, you could see the next leg up, right? It's very, very possible. So again, as you can tell by my watch list, I've got every single thing on my watch list, but if you can tell by my watch list, we're starting to, you know, to names like Devin, names like, you know, Bank of America, as much as I like Bank of America, I mean, do you really see me telling my Bank of America all the time? So we're kind of getting thinner ideas, good charts, but thinner ideas. And when I'm starting, and when my macro universe starts shrinking and shrinking and shrinking and shrinking, I possibly know there is something to worry about maybe down the line. Maybe not today, maybe that's Monday, maybe not next week, but there might be something down the line if these beta names don't wake up and really reclaim their supremacies as the ultimate speculation in the market. Guys, have an awesome, awesome Easter. I wish everybody the best. God bless. I'll see you all on Monday. Take care, guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 Vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.