 Welcome, traders, to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally, it is 1pm GMT plus one. So we are going to get going here before we jump into today's charts as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent for today's presentations have had views, opinions expressed by me are solely mine, they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Those of you here for the first time a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriate at that stage day gambling. From early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case my beginners luck went out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit to my personal capital. I had to say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out if it's feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I up, not just my technical game in terms of researching and actively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game. I'm probably most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process oriented and have a professional trading mindset, and understand the true nature of trading, simply being a numbers game in which you're playing the role of your abilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster ride of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of an individual trade, or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades. So I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended range of outcomes. A multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable revenue returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through managed account servers since 2010. I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for tick mill, exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos through the tick mill trading view accounts, and on average there's about two or three opportunities I'm actively tracking on a daily basis. I also run tick mills Facebook group, E-mini strategy Facebook group, where I post a daily trading plan, outlining my pre-market thoughts for the trading session ahead. I also provide advice for the day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 7,500 points of profit since we launched the group in April 2021. The second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tick mill futures telegram group is a real-time environment, a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis, and trades. I also provide live market commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session. Essentially, this gives traders the opportunity to see how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions will act as a platform, helping traders to develop a professional and consistent approach to navigating markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Let's jump into the charts. We're going to start with the indexes using hourly and daily timeframe charts here as we take a look at these and then we're going to change things up a bit when we look at forex and commodities. So from a technical perspective, the lean on the bias was long over the last week, and we have seen an upside extension. The target zone is 4174. Now, the 4174 represents the 3.618 extension of our potential wave two structure. It also coincides with an equality objective versus our swing low at 3940. And if I extend this daily chart, you can see we have some triangle trend resistance potentially coming in there as well, 4177. So this is going to be a key test to my mind anyway for the S&P as we head into these next couple of sessions. I'm looking for momentum divergence, which we've got in place here on the hourly timeframe. You can see we're making new highs in price but failing to make new highs with momentum study. So I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns between the 4172, the 4200 area, looking to engage on the short side, initially looking for a pullback back into test the 4120, 4130 area. And then from there we'll see a bias step back in because if they do, then in all likelihood we're going, this would be a wave four structure and we would likely make a wave five high but into 4200 potentially as high as 4125 will be my target for that. But for now, focus on how price responds in this 4172, 4190 zone. And we certainly have momentum and momentum divergence in play here so we're watching for any bearish reversal patterns here to engage on the short side. The NASDAQ continues to extend higher last week we're looking for three wave correction into that 13,150 area that played out with extended to the upside. The upside is looking a little bit laboured here and the reason for that is that we have this momentum divergence, which is making things a little bit sticky as we try to extend to the upside. The target for this move now is the 13,500 area as the next upside objective. So what I've been watching for now is, let's just remove that. And this for now, this past. The anticipate here now is a grind up into that target zone so we'd certainly be looking for the highs of Friday and yesterday so 13,280 to the 13,300 area. I've been looking for that to act as support. If it does then we're looking for that extension up into 13,500 area. We've also got the weekly R1 up there as well. I would anticipate from here then for as long as we maintain the momentum divergence to get a more significant corrective move develop, ideally into the holiday holiday trip and holiday session coming up this week. So, coming into Thursday, Friday, we have non-farm payrolls on Friday and then the futures markets close pretty quickly after that. So, I think we could see some profits being put into or ahead of that NFP release. Certainly if we're trading up into that 13,500 zone, I'll be watching the bearish reverse patterns there to engage on the short side. Now, what I'd also be watching would be any loss of this trend channel support as another indication that maybe we have with this high in that is currently in place is our is going to be the end of this current sequence. And then we'll be looking for a pullback something similar in scope and scale to what we saw before this run up here. So we will just simply be dropping this down and bring it in here. And you can see that we'd be looking for a retest into the high value area, value area, high 30, just above the 13,000 level as a way for pullback and then we'll see if we're going to extend again to the upside. We do have a more meaningful upside objective in terms of an asset given this daily swing structure, which would put us up into this triangle resistance weekly projected range resistance, just below the 14,000 level and from there I would certainly anticipate that we see a more sustained pullback note we still have momentum divergence and play on the daily timeframe. So Dow Jones Dow Jones is getting ready to test some pretty pivotal resistance as well as we have this trend channel resistance or potentially be a bull flag. But for now we will be watching to see how price responds into just shy of 34,000 so the intraday timeframe here we will be looking for pullbacks to find support into the 33,600 to 33,560 area. But as buyers defend that zone, we look for another leg to the upside to target that 34,000 level, and then from there we're watching for momentum divergence to be addressed, and for a pullback to develop. So the alternative scenario is we'll take out the trend channel support and again we use that as a signal that the current high is likely is likely to be respected for at least a corrective all that we're not talking about calling tops or bottoms here we're just talking about trading corrections. So those are the two key areas for me any loss of 33,500 I'd be looking for pullbacks to find resistance and then looking for an extension to the downside equally any move up into 34,000 just above there. We're watching bearish reversal patterns as long as we maintain momentum divergence to, like I say engage on the short side. DAX DAX has a nice setup here looking for a move to test just above that 16,000 level says the 16,000 on the daily here represents the 127 extension of this last leg to the downside. And we also have 16,063 as the 131 extension from the swing low back down just below the 15,000 levels so once again any move up into this area. As long as we maintain momentum divergence which we've got in play at the moment, I've watched a bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side. So the first target is going to be a move back down into the weekly pivot and weekly ascending trend channel support 15,590s moving to the FTSE similar scenario FTSE has tested into the equality objective here at the 7715 which we were looking for. And also we had the weekly R1 then we're seeing a pullback so I'm looking at this stage the sequence doesn't look complete to me because we have this wave to structure and we'd be expecting something similar and scope and scale to develop for getting a fifth wave extension to the upside. And we, again, no, we have this momentum divergence in play. So if we move up into 7750, I would anticipate we get bearish reversal patterns that I've been looking to fade that move. And my first target is going to be the test of the ascending trend channel support weekly pivot back down to 7570s. Equally with this, with this putsy move here, because we have technically completed a three wave corrective move into that 7717 15s. Any loss of this trend channel support on a daily basis will be a bearish development, suggesting we could be starting another meaningful leg to the downside, moving to the nifty. And also we were looking at this bear flag scenario looking for a breakdown didn't get the breakdown and said we've broken to the upside, we've taken out trend channel resistance here gaps gaps scenarios within a structure tend to represent tend to act as a confirmation for a wave three structure so what I'm looking for now is an advance above 17600 to fail. What I'm looking for then is the first pullback that retest this bear flag resistance. What is now being broken out of and should act as support. We also have this prior trend channel resistance also so any moving back into 17,350 area. You want to watch a bullish reversal patterns and again I'll be looking on the long side in the next upside objectives come back into these price going highs 17,850s moving to the hang saying that's quite nice structures well here, we are looking for a pullback now into 20,045 what's a bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side. The next upside objective for me is going to be 21,000 just keep an eye on any tests of 20,045 which bullish reversal patterns take out the corrective trend channel through the potential I X. wave high here and then we look for that extension into the 21,000 level. Like I say what I'm going to do now is and we jump to a different chart layout for us to review the effects landscape and the commodity. So dollar index. We are looking for the 101 level to get tested this morning, we have tested a potential double bottom here at 101 50s. It's like we've got some bids emerging have been able to close below there close below there will should set up that that 101 level test. So from there, I'm anticipating we could see the potential for a more sustained corrective move, certainly if we test into that 169 those price with those. I think we get a decent bounce from that zone. And our first objective in terms of the bounce is going to be something similar in scope and scale to that last corrective move. So we can see that if we did that. From that anticipated low area we'd also have some trend channel development there as well so I'm looking for any move into 101 into these 160 areas, which we're going to be some nice bullish momentum divergence in play this is a four hour. So we've got here, but we can appear in the daily down here just just to clarify that, but this is going to be the area where I think we can see a pullback in the dollar and not suggesting a low I think we've got so I think we can trade further to the downside but in terms of just trading sequences. This sequence I think could see an interim low put in place on that next push down, looking to the euro dollar. In the euro dollar I think we're putting in a potential triangle scenario here now before we extend once more so we're looking for a break of the ascending triangle resistance that comes in 109 30 so any move up into 109 40s I've been looking for an extension into our next upside objective, which is the 110 30s note with the euro we do have this equality objective versus the swing structure in play here and our swing low at 107s. We've got that 111 20s. Keep that in mind but first target I think it's going to be a retest of that price we hide up into that that one 1030 zone for them likely seeing another pullback before trying to make the next leg higher sterling. So they seem some strength trade into our target zone. 125 35s, and we're seeing a pullback here. Now, what we are ultimately looking for starting to do here is test this weekly trends channel resistance that's just sharpening that up and get the level 126 50s let's see how we can get there. So I'd be looking for any pullbacks from this current zone to find support into these prior highs, and then get this final extension up into that weekly trend line resistance from there I will be anticipating we see a more meaningful correction. And certainly that would coincide with the dollar index making new lows the euro trading up into that one 1030 111 area. So you can see how the as usual that these these pairs these majors are syncing up and the structure. And there's synchronicity in terms of the structures and the sequences they're trading so I'm looking for that test of the descending weekly trend channel resistance and from there are certainly watching for bearish reversal patterns to just fade that move for a for a decent pullback at a minimum. Got a yen. I used to trade just below that 134 area. I still think we had lower in terms of dollar yen at the moment. So if you look for any move into this 133 90134 as a shorting opportunity, first target is going to be back down into the pivot here 132 20s if we can get through there, then we'd be looking back into 130 80s and then the ideal target is this 129 48 verses this particular structure that we haven't played at the moment should very choppy trade at times the dollar yen, certainly if you're trading anything above I guess like a 15 minute or 30 minute chart this stage, the Aussie dollar. So getting close to our target area. I think we should see one more push now for the Aussie into test the 68 20s from there I've been watching bearish reversal patterns, and certainly we think about a retest in terms of the play from there so any rejection at the 70 20s three wave corrective move firstly we'd look at the midpoint of the channel which has seems to have been in play and respected 67 50s. And then we're looking for another leg down into the high volume over and trend channel support 66 90s. And then from there we'll see if I step back in and try to form a base here for higher prices in terms of the Aussie dollar we still have that weekly target zone way up at 73 20s so there's scope for the Aussie to trade higher here. We'll see if we can hold the next support test, but for now we're looking at 68 20s watch a bearish reversal patterns, we'll be looking to engage on the short side, looking for that deeper pull back into the high volume similar setup obviously in the Kiwi. And again, what I would say and this is just a point of reference for you guys is that where you get this heavily overlapping price action more often than not, that indicates corrections and corrections that are then followed by trend continuation and trying had been down to the end of this phase. Obviously, it can be a more meaningful base that's been put in place that we've been looking for some key markers to be taken out on the outside before we consider that so for me at the moment, 63 60s the era I'm watching that the RBNZ, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet this evening, and you move up into the 63 60s I watch for bearish reversal patterns. My first target is going to be 62 50s. We have the high volume node just below there at 62 30s. Gold now this one is interesting we have this ascending triangle scenario, and I've got some couple of ways of playing this. First of all I watch ready move up into the 127 extension of the triangle from the top to the base, which gives us 20 36 weekly projected range resistance just about 2045. And there I anticipate we get a pullback, and that pullback should retest the triangle resistance and we've got this trend line support so any pullback that finds support just above the 2000 level. That's if you can get bullish reversal patterns from there that's a pretty rock solid setup to play for an extension to the upside, and I've been targeting a test of 2100 as the next upside objective in terms of gold. So keep an eye on gold in the next few sessions I think this one has as a pretty clean structure and sequence to trade off. So that's one is definitely going to be on my radar crude oil. Obviously crude the setup when I was tracking with crude oil, didn't play out and we was kind of blown out of the water on the basis of the move by OPEC over the weekend. So what do we have in terms of structure here now well, we have a potential one to looking for a way three high in place and away for low and then a fifth wave extension. Remember where you get gaps in price more often than not that's confirming that we're in a three cycles so we'll be waiting now for some momentum divergence to develop. And then for the first pullback that is equal in scope or scale to the wave to pullback, and I'll be overlaying wherever we get that high. And that will give us a target zone to re enter to play for that fifth wave extension to the upside. This is one I'll be sharing through the trading view over the coming sessions as it develops. I'll just be mapping it out using some some basic levels here but we'll I'll get better definition to the structure. Once we get the potential for a way for high in place and certainly I see decent opportunity in crude oil. Bitcoin. I'm still waiting and still looking for a test of the 30,000 level from where I would anticipate certainly where we have this level of consolidation get a pullback to at least retest these highs as support or break down and retest the loads as a base before the next leg to the next phase. So just this one is a bit of a slow burner at the moment so see if we can get a flag scenario. Yeah, that's a bit of a mess. I would personally I'll be waiting for the break and see the quality of the pullback after the breakouts and then and then that will give us guidance as to the next play in terms of Bitcoin, Apple broken to the upside so the key area for me now with Apple is this weekly trend line resistance that comes in just above 170. And that's, that's going to be a key test to my mind for Apple. Let me just see what we've got here in terms of the policy objectives. The other area will be the one seven seven which would represent an equal leg so anything between one seven 170 to one seven seven when paying close attention to the price action there, certainly with momentum divergence developing. We've got it here on the daily time frame. As you can see we're making new highs in price but momentum not confirming this yet so really want to pay close attention to that weekly trend line test and or the test of the equality objective 177 Tesla. Things up. So, so we, we had a week break out of that prior corrupt to trench and let me just rejoice if you guys know that. So I anticipate at the moment that we're going to an X, Y scenarios as we hold current resistance. The 207 handle I've been looking for price to pull back into the quality objective 153 for trying to set a basic game to break out to the upside and get a test of that 225, which is the weekly trend line resistance in Tesla. So there's the charts I am tracking as we head into this holiday short and we remember I did a good note last week. Oftentimes you will find into these major holidays that we do get corrections in trends just before the holiday period as as traders and book profits. So they've been worrying about positions over the holiday period, and then we tend to get those trends reemerge as players return to the markets been spring break in the US. So we're going to be easter now over the next week or so and so liquidity is is dropping off lower participation can lead to exaggerated moves. So if you do get into a position on your stop and don't try and fight these these moves because they can get exaggerated with the lower liquidity. Okay, are there any questions. Let me take a look at an instrument I haven't covered in my presentation there I'm happy to do that or any trading related question or question related to chart I've covered happy to respond now. Okay I can't see any questions coming through. So at this stage, I am going to wrap this session up here we will reconvene next Tuesday. After the Easter holidays. And so, as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much.