 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. I run Basel Chapman on this Tuesday, Tuesday the 26th of July, just about to wrap up the month of July. And this candle right here, that monthly candle is going to be so important. Let's get to the story. I got so many stocks and things to look at. I'm not going to take too much time to name the overview. My overview is that we made a low back on the 17th of June at 29,653 in the Dow. This is a very hard struggle to move to the upside, but upside it is. The weight of evidence suggests that there are more important stocks that are going up than important stocks going down at this particular point. That is in the Dow. There's been a sector. I mean, I must have spoken about this since November, December of last year. All the economists are talking about, all the politicians, everyone's talking about recession. Of course there's been a recession. Are you telling me that the SMH is the semiconductor since the double top from November to January at 318 haven't been in a recession? Two quarters of negative action. Give me a break. Two quarters. This is like six quarters. Well, not quite. At least three to four quarters. IYT, the IYT is the Transportation Index. Are you telling me that since October, November of last year at 281 in that whole area of the 280s, sliding down to 205, that whole area of the Transportation Index, whether it's airlines, whether it is truckers, it doesn't matter. That's been a recession. To give a title, maybe tomorrow or two quarters and that'll be an official recession, unless you change the rules, of course, and of course the politicians love to change the rules in the middle of the game. So you're playing soccer or football, whatever it is. And all of a sudden the goalposts, a couple of people come out and they move the goalposts. That's the way it is. Just like, you remember kids are playing and playing a game and then there's always one kid that says, oh, oh, but and then they give, they make up some rule. That's the way it is. All I can say is, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, is that a bad news? Is that bad news? Let me just check. Why is that? I can't even see it. No, there's nothing. For me, I'm going to just get this off. You never know, right? All right. If it was Tf&N calling, I'd have to answer that right away. It's not. So we're looking at the transportation. Just you go through any sector. Look at the RTH. This is a retail sector. Retail sector makes a high back at about 200. This is a Van Ek retail 20% is Amazon. I'll be talking about Amazon in a moment. And it slides down to the 140s. 200 to 100 for 60 points. I mean, we're talking about something serious here. And now it's had a bit of a bounce going to a peak. Why is peak D important in the Chapman wave methodology? Because your buy signal going to a buy mode implies, in the Chapman wave methodology, that you should go to at least a fourth highest peak. And then that's an upgrade from a buy signal to a buy mode. And then other things can happen. Well, peak D at 167. We're now trading at 160. That's a seven point decline. A little gap down today in the retail sector. I wonder why? Oh, why? Because it's Walmart, which is not too bad. It's only down 11 at 102 hours. That only because from the news you would have expected that it would be a catastrophe. It is a catastrophe, but it's a catastrophe. You saw that happen in Target and Target did recover some. Let me just go to that Target slide. There was a slide. Wow. From the 210s, it collapses down to the 160s. Then it starts to bounce. It can't make the bounce. It drops to 138. And now it's had a little bit of a rebound. It's gone from the 138 to the 160s. It's trading right now at 150. So we might see the same thing in Walmart because, hey, they're not fools over at Walmart, right? They know that it's really important for them to get this right. So if you look at the weekly chart, slumping like this from this peak G in the weekly chart, remember rectangle formation? You can pop out of it, but if you come back, break the long rectangle sideways move. If you take out the midpoint, you're going to test the lows. If you test the lows in this case at 135, watch out because you can go straight through it and it did that. In fact, it went to the 117s back in May. And then it ran up and it ran up and ran up and went to 133. I don't know where it was, 133.39? 133.39 on the 22nd of July. Well, low and ball, we're at 120 right now. So it is a rotational recession when finally the Fed says, oh, we're in a recession officially. That's very often where you're starting to make, you've got internal lows. This is where you're starting to see some kind of a residual low. So putting it together, where are we? Look at the financials, XLF. XLF goes from the 41s, makes it all-time high. Oh, no, sorry. I shouldn't say that because I need to check. Was that all-time high? Right there, click. Yes, all-time high and the big long-legged dojo candle at 4170 back in January. And it's pulled back and made lower highs and lower lows every single month since then. And the most recent low of 30.37. And then it had an island reversal 30.37 on the 14th of July. Has an island reversal pops up. Here's the 50-period exponential moving average at 33. And it's stuck at 32.80. But it is a sign to say that the recession has been, it has hit every single sector. Are you telling me that Ford has not been in a recession since the Eiffel Tower High at 35.87 on the 14th of January? And it takes a dive down to 10.61 on the 5th of July? Are you telling me that getting cut by, what is it, 68%, something like that, is not a dive? And now it's balancing, it's at 12.62. Recession. So the whole talk about recession is ludicrous because we've been in a selective, rotational series of sector recessions and the title is going to be what makes it official. That's all. Okay, I'm done with that. Now let's just run this quickly. This is the Dow. The Dow is down 89 at 31,0899. Holding okay. We still remain long, long, long term. We're long from the 2020 low and we are still and we've got new positions that are long. You're looking at the S&P coming back a little bit from the low of the day. No, it's gone back down. Down 26, 39, 39. Really struggling and as I said before, when you consider the type of low that we made around about the 17th of June, this is just okay. This is not great and I would hesitate to say that you could find anything to give you a clue in the monthly chart that says that we're going to make new highs in 2022. This to Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. 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If it can touch the weekly chart, it can just touch 580, just at once. That's going to raise the base of support and finally I think you might even get the nine-period moving average in the weekly chart to turn green and that would be a big positive. I put that together with one that we used to have, Thermo Fisher we used to have. We took really good profits and then watched it come down. Agilent was technology, scientific solutions for labs and businesses, also doing way, way better right now. A, B, C, S, actually doing a lot better but that one needs much more work. Thermo Fisher is a much better pattern. This is a 123 Thermo Fisher is up in the 500. So yeah, now I said I'll get to Amazon. Look, Amazon, if you look at the structure of the arch formation in the monthly chart having gone to a peak F double top, it hit on July. Oh, it's exactly a year ago. July of 2021 hit 188.65. So far this year it's hit the hundreds. This is of course split and I should always type in what it was split at. I still have, I wonder if I can find it. Is that a gate? He should know. That's my son. Can you imagine my son calling me now? He should know better than to call during the show. So yes, there it is. You see all these notations here? We're at 34.88 November of 2008. That was the low and that was pre-split and then finally ran higher. So that was 34. And today's low it is 1.73. You can't do that. How many of you have ever looked at your charts and you're looking and said, oh my God, I could have bought Apple at $7 or something like that because it's split. All these splits I keep them here because the notations have a wave. This is not automated. Every single letter that you see typed in my charts, thousands of charts is by me. And it doesn't take very long, but it is time consuming. And when I shut down accidentally without having saved, even if it's saved, there are moments when it comes back and gets onto another file. So I lose all the notation on the newest file from maybe three months ago, everything up until then. And I usually notate it. It's there somewhere, but I don't seem to be able to find it immediately and then I start typing the new. So these are all splits. So let me go back to Amazon saying, okay, let's forget about the split, et cetera. But look the archvomation. In the chapter 8 methodology, we're looking at certain patterns. Basic patterns. All the time I'm looking at these basic patterns. One is a straight line up or down. Two is a cup formation or a V-shaped formation. Three is an arch or an inverted shape formation and inverted V. Or a mix. One and three or one and two. This is one and three. And if you take out the left side row, the reason why it's red, to come down sharply, then take out that usually a peak A or a B and it fails, takes out the left side row. It can go a lot lower. We've had that a couple of times today on the upside. If you take out the left side high, it's green because if you take it out in the reverse Y, that can be very positive. And then the chapter 8 methodology, we're always trying to identify the lowest low bar. Can't eat successively higher peak, alphabetized, A, B, C, D, E, F, G. It is never an H. It's upgrading from a bi-signal to a bi-mode that should take you to at least a D. What do I mean by that? I mean that even in the Dow chart, let me just go here. This is a peak C. There it comes. This is a peak C. There should be in a bi-mode because the magnate is strong. The stochastic is at 90%. I mean, that's fabulous. Stochastic, the 9-period is over the 14-period moving average. This Dow should go to at least a D in the daily chart. The 120 has already made a peak D and it's now consolidating these notations. These notations, you see how Chapman Wave automated resistance and support levels, 32126 was a resistance level. We went fractionally higher. We went to 32215. We went on the support level, 317095. And today's low is 31826 so far. All right? So this is what we do. And you can see here, when it goes L, that means you've now had the 9-period moving average and that's a very positive thing. When it went L, when it went S to the downside, that was negative and look what happened. S, look what happened to the price. So it's very important for me. All right, let's get back to our story with Amazon. So Amazon has this big arch formation. It's stalled for three months now with support at 100 and 1.26. That's the low that was made three months ago. But if you're looking at the candles, this is the candle, 81.30 back in March of 2020 before going to 188.65. This is of course post-split numbers, not the pattern pattern, everything else, the notation, everything else is exactly right. But when I looked and I had been saying for months, I've been saying since December, actually even November, I said Amazon is going to take a breather and it's going to be quite sharp and it's going to be unexpected in the sense that it's going to be kind of gentle. There's not going to be one huge move. There was one move three months ago or four months ago, but basically it's been kind of very quiet. Now, look at the difference between the high that was made back in, right there, back in July of 2021 with a high of 188.65, goes sideways, makes a cup formation, has a retest that was in November and 188.11. Is it not? I've been talking about this for, maybe I should do an article for Stocks and Commodities Magazine. Too much time. About the double tops and the double bottoms, because we have seen so many stocks, either within days, weeks, or even years, go back to within pennies sometimes of the previous high, 188.65 in July, pulls back to the 160, 150s and then rallies up and stocks dead, 50 cents below that previous all-time, all-time high, that previous high, and look at the MACD was failing, the Stochastic was failing, on-balance volume. That's the reason why I said be careful because we could go sideways and then start to drop with lower lows and lower highs, and even now the on-balance volume is holding very well. So here's the question. The question is, I have a friend, this is a question from the den. I have a friend who would like to, I have a friend, a quotes friend, who would like to buy Amazon. Do you think it's worth buying it? Is that, what was that, the full question? Let me get the exact question. TMR, did that? There you are. Basil, friend asked me, should she buy Amazon here? Well, once he says should she, I'm going to believe you. Amazon here, what's at you? The report on Thursday, thanks. So this is what I'm going to suggest. In the long-term, Amazon is just an incredible, what they've done. I mean, just think of this. I've done it. So these little micro mice, so that I like, these little micro mice, in other words, battery or connected, and the number is, well, and I want it, six or seven bucks, and it gets shipped to me. What did it cost them? If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my gold report. The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning I publish the gold report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN. Educating investors. Just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Hello, I'm Basel Chapman here and as a riding expert possible in uptrend as a continuation pattern in your experience. Yes, I can show you some examples. Good question. Let me just finish here because I want to... This is a really important question because Amazon... I'm not talking about morality or anything. You can talk morality to the end of time. As a game changer, as a leapfrog of every single thing that ever happened before, Jeff Basel's came in and he changed everything about the consumer. And as a result, in fact, while we were driving back from New York the other day, Amaric was looking at iPhone and she said, oh, so Amazon is now in healthcare. They're buying one of the healthcare companies. So they're in everything and at some point it's going to be to the detriment, but not for a long time. You know how we talk about automobile companies? The electric vehicles today are very much like the 1920s here in Massachusetts alone. We had dozens and dozens, maybe even hundreds, so automobile companies and we're doing the exact same thing now. Things don't change in that regard when it comes to innovation. So at some point, Amazon, there'll be competition and then there'll be less competition. The same way with the automobile companies there were dozens and dozens and then there were fewer and fewer and then there were just the three major ones, Ford General Motors and Chrysler and all of a sudden it became Ford and General Motors and that's how it goes in any business. It's the same thing in the telecommunications, etc. So I think that Amazon so far is a leader, it's going to remain a leader. So the question is, I didn't get the context. In other words, if this person doesn't have Amazon buying it here instead of up in the 180s buying it in the 160s to start your position I would say I have no qualms about a starter position here but then you have to talk about months and then in about two to three months regardless of whether it's higher or lower I would probably say you can now add another little bit. That's the way I would do it in the longer term on a shorter term basis but just sit here saying earnings book it has to do with advertising and like Google there are a number of other factors that are involved. It's the outlook that they discuss. All I can say is if there wasn't earnings on Thursday and if it rallied between now and Thursday at this time during my show and was at 122 I would say having started your position right here at 116 be prepared that it could drop to 180 and even go lower but this was a starter position I would much prefer to have a starter position here and even if it drops and retests the whole 105 to 100 in the area that is 13 to 15 to even 70 even a 20% decline but it's a starter position in a really Amazon amazing that's really what you have to say Amazon for months I've been saying just a huge digestive phase is giving back all of 2020 just about all of 2020 gains 2021 gains you can expect even more but in a longer term position this is where I would say you could just start at 116 that's your starter position if you're going to buy say I'm just making numbers up 100 this is where you could start 15 or maybe even 20 and this position is a very wide stop and if there's good news on Thursday and a source to move higher that's great that's not when you're going to jump in for your second position you have to wait for some kind of the digestive phase is not done I hope that helps you and a lot of people ask me some answering that in the same way as I've answered to everyone else who's asked me about Amazon now for those people who've had Amazon for a long time just like Apple don't touch that core position I would have a trading around it position and that trading around it would be exactly what I was saying right now at 116.25 right now not ideal because the technicals on balance volume was pulled back but I don't like this inverted V-shaped pattern this deepness of this particular pattern says uh oh it's got so much to get to the 126 level again there's only 10 points but unless there's really good earnings news so if you're in that position you know what to do here's the exact opposite I would say to you because there could be further decline depending on where you got in anywhere between this 125 and 116 I would probably have said lighten up a little bit and you can start to get back in on any sharp decline 116 I would say hey this is where you want to start nibbling back split the new starter position not your core as exactly what I'm saying split it up a little bit here and then wait many weeks even maybe two months and then see if you want to put any more in I hope that helps you but I'm talking about it as a company and I'm talking about it as a company that this is so fundamentally I'm trying to do some work here on this fundamentally purely technically this automation says nope there should still be some testing between 110 and 100 so just be prepared for that alright let's get back to our story so the rising act so let me show you something here so the rise so there's a pattern in the Chapman wave methodology that looks like this prices run up and then they stall and then it starts to make lower highs and much lower lows and at certain point there's a lot of support and if it takes out the upper declining line this is the declining wedge formation I call it falling axes it looks like a long handle and the blade of the axe I'm not thinking Hedgecock or anything like that I'm just thinking the patterns and all of a sudden it breaks out you can go all the way back to that previous high but wait a minute what happens if it's upside down the exact I even turned the whole chart upside down the slide it means it comes down starts to make higher highs much higher highs and higher lows then it starts to find some resistance and it arches over and it breaks down if it goes all the way to a peak C or D it means that pull back if it takes out the trend line, upper trend line it's probably going to either test or it won't even get to the left side low if it's only a peak A and a B be careful because it could arch all the way over what examples well example here is GDX trading at trading up 39 cents at 24.98 I've drawn this in many times I wonder if I kept it because I want to clean up my charts at one point but I also like to keep them as example there it is so here's the rising falling axe formation at 30.64 the week of the 5th of May 2021 it goes up it goes peak A peak B peak C with much higher lows and then it hits peak C the mag D is good it goes all the way to the almost 86% level but the on balance volume gives you a sharp reversal and then the price comes out and it takes out that left side low and what I'd say it is this should become an arch formation I actually took that away because it was really too messy but I'll draw it in now just for demonstration purposes right there an arch formation and if it takes out the support level it should go all the way back down and go a little bit either just above 30.64 just a little bit lower and then try to rally again well it did exactly that so the question is is a rising axe ever possible in an uptrend as a continuation pattern so the question is can you have the same thing that it becomes a continuation pattern it finds support and then not only does it go higher but it goes much higher I think that's the question and the answer is if we had one recently oh my and I wrote it down but it's in my notebook and it's just a mess the answer is yes if the falling axe takes just briefly takes out the rising chin line and then takes the chin around and gets back into the body especially part of the upper hand her body and then says oh I think I know exactly what I'm thinking did you and Jesus do that did you and Jesus do that oops I'll be back in a moment the tech the technology around us is changing everyday with so much happening it's seem impossible to keep up with all the information data whites investment newsletter with the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the tech the tech the tech all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future. David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology. His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for valued tech stocks, as well as entry prices, target prices, and stops to set for each trade. Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday, with updates throughout the week. You can get the technology insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50. Come up for David's newsletter, the technology insider, and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer. Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money-back guarantee. TFNN, educating investors. Biotech is booming, but for how long? Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run, or has run its course, trade LABU or LABD, Directions Daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit DirectionInvestments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Direction Shares carefully before investing. 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I like thin crust, but this is a deep dish pizza, but we're looking at trying, so 3940 the ES mini, if it's able to get to the 34, 43, 45 level and hold there for five out of seven, one minute bars, then the 3948 200-period moving average, which has been tremendous resistance for hours now, kicks in as a magnet. I talk about peak D, why is peak D important? Have a look at this. This is the 10 minute chart of the E-mini that made a beautiful peak G. I mentioned this as we were going out yesterday, I don't want to talk about it too, so I can't remember right now, but it made a peak G, no it was much later, during the evening, a peak G and then it went to 100 bars, it speaks F, 2 minute bars, it was peak E and 10 minute bars, 740 last night was a peak G and then it pulls back really sharply, makes an arch formation and a peak C-minus comes back down, it has that cup formation, holds the left side low because the rule of thumb is that within two bars it's got to, sometimes three, it's got to get above the left side low. We did that right there, right there and then it started to rally and it had a single move up and that was at about, it wasn't full, okay, screams up and then fails at the 39, in the 3970s, comes back down, this is this morning and now what we're looking at, oh that was all yesterday, I shouldn't have realized that and look, what I really want you to show is look how long a rectangle formation can last and then the rule of thumb is that if it suddenly spikes up and goes through a peak D above that rectangle, be careful because if it comes back and goes halfway into the rectangle and takes that out of support, it could retest the low and there's a good chance that it will break down below it, all of that happened right there, peak D, peak D, after 200 period moving average in the 10 minute chart fails and plummets down and now it's going to a leg, E leg F to the downside, down 31 in the E mini, these are just, I wanted to show live what we're looking at all the time so now let's get back to our story and the story is, I said I would look at that as a chance for the upside, I thought I saw it, oh yes, so this is exactly what we'd be talking about, I took it out, I had it as a potential some time ago, so UNG which is natural gas, back the United States natural gas fund made a leg E spike back on the second of Feb, 2222, I love that, 19.50, it gaps up and has an item reversal gap down, it pulls back to just about the 1350s and then it starts to rally and what I had done before I actually took it out because it was getting a little messy and it was very much like this, you're going up and you're going like that, normally I would do this, I remember now why I took it out because I normally go from the inside of the wedge to the upper levels and that's really the chart that we were looking at, so this is it, so Dan in the den, this is what we're looking at and yes, a successful chart, take that away, remove, remove, a successful rising inverted chart, we're falling X, so this is making this blue just so you can see it nicely, there's blue, there's blue, look what happened, it went just underneath for one bar of the support level and then all of a sudden it kicked in with a cup formation, beautiful peak D turnaround for a cup formation and in the Chathamway methodology, this is a cup and ladle breakout and it's gone all the way to peak G slash C and now it's gone to the D pull back, it's gone to E and an F, goes to 3277, so the answer to your question is that's a successful inverted Chathamway falling X that held support after peak D above the left side low and then went higher, I hope that helps you, let me just check to see, that's the rising X, good, but my question, the rising X upside down from, yes, yes, that's exactly what I'm saying, I'll share the chart for you by PM in a bit with a specific question, okay, well I hope I helped this, this is a C wave, okay, someone doing a red wave, fine, very nice, here's the example, I'm looking at symbol with held for the moment, okay, oh I see what you're talking about, that's a great question, that in fact has a whole other bunch of connotations, I actually, in my mind, I'm picturing other charts that I've seen exactly like this, but I just gave you the example, exactly what you're talking about is what we're looking at here, except it wasn't holding from the high to make even higher falling X formation, mine had the flagpole pullback and that's, this is the Eiffel Tower, straight up, straight down, Chathamway of Eiffel Tower, reversal to the downside and then it started with falling X, that's on UNG, almost went along the UNG this morning, had a couple of things because it acted so well after my discussion yesterday, instead I chose a particular oil and gas energy company because it has the same characteristics, but a little bit different chart pattern and I'm thinking that crude oil at this particular point is so beaten down that it should start to find some support in the 90s and try a couple of times to get to the 103-105 level, it might not do more than that, but that's one thing and if you're looking at natural gas, a screamer, it went, remember yesterday I said, I don't know if I can talk about this, but it looks to me like it's going to break to the upside if it does that in leg C above the high of P D on the 8th of June at 8 at 9604 and it does this in leg C, that is incredible because it means that the weekly chart, there is no H, it has to be a brand new A and there's no other way I can count this that was a P D and then there was potential for Chamberlain's recent result, but to pull back this sharp he says, nah, that was a P D major top, serious top at the 950s and then it tumbles down and goes to the 5 whatever it is and the continuous contract, the low 5s and now it's, I mean today it hit 9.41, that is really something. Alright, so here we go. Got that, got that, got that, a question there, no I don't see any questions, now I'm not sure what's going on here, I don't want to do that. Okay, alright so I need to give a little overview one more time. I've been talking about, oh wait a minute, wait a minute, E-N-P-H, so George wants to know, I think I cover this, good morning Basil, welcome back, regarding Amazon, where do you see a good entry point on the long-term chart and what is the start of the position, good, I think I cover that, take my start of position here, it's not ideal. 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I like what it's doing here in the daily chart, higher highs and higher lows. That's just the simple definition of an uptrend as higher highs and higher lows. Most importantly, the weekly chart is trying to fill in a huge decline from the 280 level back in the end of last year into, I guess, the beginning of January, maybe February, into the 118, 119 area. So that says to me, and look, even here, it's got an A, B, chart wave overlapping, wave says, got to go to a D, it's gone to the D, it says should retest the previous high support. Yeah, it's acting very well. What would I do now? It's a little dodgy candle as we speak down 246216ENPH, Enphase Energy. I like it. It has the potential for a head and shoulders pattern in the monthly chart, but that's not the issue. The issue is it's gotten to a D in the weekly chart way below the previous peak. I think that was actually a peak A, BCS, the previous peak D. And I don't like that. I like it too. So I'm not negative on it. I just don't. I think it's kind of stuck. I think they are better players. All right. This is going to be a wrap up because we're about to go to the end of the show. So before anything else happens, let me do a couple of things. The VIX index, the volatility index, is trading at $24.59. It is up $1.23 up 5%. Let's talk about the end of the day because we've still got the Fed talk tomorrow. So it's only down 112, but the S&P is down 33. That's a big number. I'm saying to you, there's a rotation going on even in injured day trading. So if the VIX index is up to 5, after 2.30 this afternoon, it's trading above 20.24, but above 20.6.10, this lock is going to pull back into the close. But if it pulls back 124, we can have a rally. I'll be back for the next.