 What an exciting debate the first of three presidential debates between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton I am Jeremy Greenfield editor politics editor over at the street. I'm joined by again Emily Stewart our politics reporter and Andreas cuts tourists from Predict it the investment market that tracks what people think is going to happen happen in the US election and myriad other issues I think we need to get right to the numbers here The markets did move during this debate meaning that people who are Wagering who are who are putting their money on the line about the election have shifted somewhat as a group and who they think might win Based on the outcome of the base There's many different prediction markets to go over but let's go over first of all that top-line number when we first started the debates Roughly what was the percent chance that your market was giving that Donald Trump would be the next president? Sure Jeremy. Thank you. Yeah, the markets really didn't move significantly over the last hour and a half when we talked before the debate Donald Trump was at 38 cents 38 percent chance To be the next president right now. He's sitting at 31 cents. So that's a seven Cent or seven percent drop. That's a pretty significant drop We've had you know millions and millions of shares traded on these on on these markets I think there've been nine million shares traded overall in Trump So it's a deep and liquid market and for it to move that significantly Suggest that collectively traders think something important happened today And you know unlike the polls where someone's numbers can go down But someone else's numbers can remain sec This means that conversely hit Hillary Clinton's numbers have increased correct And so where do they start at the beginning of the debate? She started at 64 cents and she's not 69 cents So almost near it's about 69 percent chance that it looks like And what in your estimation? Might have moved some of these numbers Well, that's more a matter of speculation that the markets won't necessarily tell us But it looks as if Traders thought that she delivered a solid performance We run another market on on how many false statements the candidates are gonna make and the ones estimating Trump's False statements in September jump significantly as well over 20 percent in the last in the last hour and a half Suggest maybe one reason is that traders didn't think that Trump prevented a very presented a very truthful Presentation to the public today that that may be one one reason and we know that the swing states are super important What happened there anything in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania sort of lends it really make make a difference, right? Yeah, Emily. We saw similar movements in the key states as well. So we started off in Florida At Hillary was given a 54 percent chance of winning Florida. She's now at 60 cents So we've had a six cent or a six percent movement in Florida and it's worth saying here also that you know While Hillary Clinton is giving a 54 percent chance of winning Florida by this market You know according to many polls she's tracking if you average the polls behind in Florida So the market is taking into account a lot of information more than just what polls say things like this debate That's right And that's the beauty of prediction markets is when something happens the markets reflect them right away Well, we may see new polls come out in Florida based on sampling tomorrow that will show a change But it will take several days to put those polls in the field and get the numbers back and digest them Prediction markets are our traders looking at those numbers that have come out today and earlier But also looking at what they see on the screen and trying to make their best judgment about what it all means And we get we get to find out right away. Absolutely. So what what about some other swing states? So, Ohio? Ohio Trump Trump was ahead 59 percent at the beginning of the debate. He's at 53 percent At the moment so he's dropped six cents in Ohio, but still ahead and we were looking at Pennsylvania 67 percent Clinton at the beginning of the debate and now 74 percent Clinton So again across the board. We're looking at a six to eight percent movement in our key markets in favor of Hillary Clinton I know you guys also had a side pool sort of going on whether or not Trump would participate in all three debates That's been a big question. Yeah, you know, are people saying maybe he'll skip these next ones after after tonight That's a good question We put up that market at a time when he was lower in the polls and seemed to be hedging about you know Whether he would do the debates or is complaining about the the Commission on presidential debates But we started off at let me see I think 81 percent that he would participate in all three and Give me a moment. Sorry You know while you're looking at that I wonder if we should also check into some of the swing states that you know, we're less swingy and now You know might be more swingy You know like North Carolina for instance and we can talk to Andreas about that and You know some of the states that were seemed safer or in one calm or the other like Iowa or Colorado which now You know according to the latest polls might be a little bit more in play And I see that we have up on our screen some North Carolina looks like Hillary Clinton made very significant gains in the betting market North Carolina. She went from Before the debate Up for about a 48 percent chance of winning that state to about a 56 percent chance after that debate So going back to the question of whether Trump will be at all three debates according to the markets The markets still think it's overwhelmingly likely that he will but it's dropped 3% so it's at 78% So you think that traders might think that the Trump camp will think we didn't do so well there Maybe we shouldn't go to another one That would that would you know highly non-traditional and certainly controversial Absolutely, but I mean you know knowing what we know about Trump and having observed from the past few debates Do you think that it's you know, maybe traders who moved six or seven cents on the question of president? Maybe only moved three cents on this because how could Trump pass up, you know the audience that this That this debate would promise I mean we're told that something like a hundred million people might tune into this debate And actually you guys had a betting market about that didn't you had a market about that as well But we have to wait for the official numbers to find out what it was. Absolutely. Yeah So there any other swing states that you want to go over with us You know, I think that we could we could take a look at Colorado. We could take a look at Iowa Absolutely. Well, it's North Carolina you mentioned We've got Trump down six cents in in Virginia excuse me in Georgia Which is generally thought to now to be a safe state for Republicans still 76% but down significantly Democrats are up five five percent five cents in Virginia Colorado four cents up to 71 cents New Hampshire 76 cents for Hillary Clinton up six cents today. So it's really so all these markets are moving in They seem to be moving in tandem. We didn't see a regional focused Well, we saw like a big conversation about trade they might you know trade trade plays differently in different parts of the country Would you mind taking a look at into then Michigan and Wisconsin? I think just to reiterate for people who might be tuning in right now live after the debate that what we're seeing from the Prediction election markets, which are people who are investing in one candidate winning or another and many other things that could happen Like who might win a particular swing state? We're seeing that after the first presidential debate across the board Clinton is up Six or seven cents in these markets which translates to about six or seven percentage win points So some of these markets that looks they said that she might win 55 percent of the time They're now betting that she might win 62 or 63 percent of the time So how about some of those other upper Midwestern states were treated as a factor Michigan up five points Democrats 77 cents for Hillary Clinton. Sure. So it was safely in her column But even more so seven cents as well in in Wisconsin to 75 cents the Republican lead in Trump's lead in Iowa cut from 65 to 59 percent So I wouldn't say we're seeing a sort of strong regional focus Really any state that's in play seems to be moving more or less in lockstep so Let's talk about a sensitive question for these prediction markets, which is that you know prediction markets had it In the early part of the summer that Brexit would not happen that the the British people would not vote to leave the European Union I think we were looking at roughly a three-to-one differential that these prediction markets had you know 75 percent We're looking for the UK to stay in and I wonder if you could talk to us a bit about that You know what happened there where the markets were wrong and how would you compare that to the situation? We're now in well, I think it's important for for Democrats who may be taking heart by by these numbers that 6770 percent is really only two times in three right So there's this Trump is by no means that even if you take these numbers But Trump is by no means out of the race and we have a long way to go these are probabilities and If I tell you the probability of something is 25 percent well, it means one in four times is going to happen Yep, so it's hard to talk about the markets in this binary, you know, right wrong kind of way But certainly the markets got Brexit wrong. I think everybody got Brexit wrong the bookies and In the UK and elsewhere in Europe and the pundits Prediction markets are one important look at a potential political future I wouldn't want to tell you that they they're always right or there to be all and end all I mean your viewers should By all means take them seriously But remember there's you know, there are thousands of people here all making the same kinds of inferences We're all trying to make as citizens ourselves and in the way the prediction markets is sort of distilling all of that Wisdom into one number and adding it up interesting, but maybe an oversimplification at times Yeah, sometimes but we do have an excellent track record, you know, we We've compared ourselves to to 538 to Nate Silver site through the through the primaries and caucuses We had an excellent track record. So did that site on some statistical measures, you know Our traders did better than than their algorithms. So this is this is serious and scientifically proven Way of estimating well, it's a little less volatile, right? It's not always a swing II let's say It's like the 538 that you see the now cast go from one thing to the next sort of the next day, right? That's right 7 cent to put it in context a 7 cent movement in a couple of hours is huge The markets it is a big swing for your markets. That's right. I think Hillary's highest percentage after the Probability after the convention was about 80 cents and she's bottomed out at about Recently at about 62 63, so it's a you know, almost a 20 cent movement over a couple of months 538 for example has moved. I think 30 points or more from almost 90 to just about 50% Right, and I and I'm not you know, I'm not criticizing my methodology at all But should be noted that 538 did accurately predict the last two elections except for one state. That's right. That's right We're talking about them here. I'm talking about them because we respect what you know The election the prediction markets are have been highly accurate. That's right in the past Maybe you could look in to see where we are on some of the interesting prop bets that we saw The over-unders on whether Benghazi would come up whether the word liar would be used and we can talk a little bit over here For a second about are you surprised by what you've seen with the move in the markets? Did you get the impression that that Hillary maybe won the debate? Yeah, I she seemed prepared but not over-prepared I think that was the thing going on is Hillary Clinton going to be over-prepared and so much a lawyer that you can't enjoy her And I feel almost like the between two ferns thing that she did like last week was helpful that she seemed a little bit Relaxed but prepared and I think Donald Trump, you know, we we knew he wasn't going to prepare a ton That's not what he does but I was a little surprised that they really seemed like he was sort of waiting at at times And he kind of brought up stuff in my mind that wasn't in his favor at the end talking about Rosie O'Donnell You know, why who are you helping here? I mean, what did you think? You know, I thought the same thing the only prediction I was willing to make about this debate was that everyone's expectations would be dashed I mean, they were so sky-high and that of course is just a recipe for them to be dash You know, we did see some of the fireworks that that Trump talked over Clinton many times. They did have battles about, you know, lying and about, you know Clinton's appearance and about racism. These are issues that may not play as well For the voters that Trump hasn't already won But maybe we let's go to some of those over-underbats and the more fun things and see how they turned out Well, it wasn't that fun as it turned out All those markets have closed of course Yep And Berther if you if you put a few pennies or a few dollars on Berther in the beer drinking game We were talking about certainly that came up, but I think all the others all the others closed that no So if you bet against Say Benghazi being mentioned a certain number of times you would have lost that bet and lost your stick Really, so all those fun drinking game bets really went to maybe we had a slightly more substantive debate than If we can bleed anything from that that people would have thought that's right And they were all they were all in the 20 25 30% so Range before the debate so people weren't taking them terribly seriously. I think we had a substantive debate Jeremy and Emily I mean I There were some fireworks, but you know it didn't devolve the way some people feared So so let's go back to that headline number again We're looking at Hillary up, you know in the mid-single digits across the board now in the beginning when we were talking if you go Into TST politics you can see that we were tweeting this periodically that the Market was in her favor by a couple of cents in the beginning maybe three cents a little bit more than halfway through and it Seems that it accelerated at the end. Is that something you noticed as well? We were following it all all debate long and there was some movement I think even in the first 20 minutes And then to sort of stabilize a couple cents up and then there was a real acceleration in the numbers in the last 20 minutes or half an hour Did Trump have a particularly bad, you know second half to the debate maybe so I think he started to Wander a little more than then he did initially that's possible and may take people time to digest as well What's really happening here and to form an opinion and to be able to make an investment decision on that basis? So we may see some movement in the numbers, you know after after this discussion all through the evening and into tomorrow so, you know There's a lot of talk about stamina in this debate, you know Trump wasn't practicing You know Clinton had had pneumonia and there were you know questions from some people about her health But it sounds like from what you said and what we observed in the the prediction markets that maybe Trump's ability to Stay on message, stay under control Deal with whatever Clinton threw at him. Maybe that got worn down a little bit throughout the debate Maybe I mean even at the end and I can't remember now at the last question was oh is it will you accept the result Of the election and he defaults to well what we're gonna make America great again And and I think that at some point. Yeah, it is tiring but it's tiring for both of them I mean, but they also know that the first 30 minutes of the debate are what really matters I mean ultimately how many people sat through an hour and a half plenty of people tuned out at least partly by 3045 minutes in so it's hard to tell and you wonder if traders who are Watching every you know bit of information that they can get about the election are factoring in the first half of the debate being that big Moment that more people are going to pay attention to rather than the second half And maybe we saw a little bit too much of a swing at the end of the night It's possible. I mean our traders are political junkies by temperament I mean People who won't won't have any trouble sitting through a 90 minute debate who pour over the polls who who have something at stake but the the art of Predictions like this are not predicting what you know, you're interested in but what you expect the electorate is going to do So we'll we'll get a we'll get a reading as well tomorrow depending on the news coverage depending on what's You know what's featured of what segments of the debate show up great Maybe let's make some predictions of our own. Do you think that we're gonna see Trump at all three debates? My personal opinion personal opinion one one person's ability to move the market. Yeah, I think it's inconceivable Yeah, I think he'll do both I mean especially if tonight didn't go well for him He's gonna want to show up for number two and three to prove that he can do it Maybe he'll do his homework. You know, Obama didn't have a great first debate in 2012 So, you know, he has a few more chances if tonight really does look like it didn't go that well Well, if we see Donald Trump for two more debates I think it would be a real treat for everyone to see these two candidates go at each other again Hopefully we'll have Andreas and predict it back with us and you'll definitely have me and Emily Stewart and for the street and the street politics at the street on Twitter and at TST politics on Twitter. I'm Jeremy Greenfield politics out of the street. Have a good night