 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Big weekend in college football as far as undefeated teams being tested for this weekend It's not just that big matchup between Oregon and Washington. We've also got UNC trying to remain undefeated We've got USC on the road taking on Notre Dame So some very big spots here for teams that are undefeated thus far We're gonna break down those big games outline where Ed's model is showing value for this week and get you ready For week seven in college football This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joint here as I have every Wednesday by dr Ed Feng you can find his work at the power rick comm and check about on Twitter at the power rick Ed week seven is coming up and a huge huge week for the pack 12. How are you doing today? I'm doing great I'm really looking forward to Oregon Washington should be a fantastic game looking forward to breaking it down and Yeah, should be another awesome week in college football I also love this Oregon Washington game is a 230 Central time game like it's kind of weird to have a game That high profile that is thrust in the afternoon slow like usually, you know It gets like the prime time treatment and like personally that fits better with my schedule So I kind of like the fact that we get these huge you games Begetting right away in the afternoon my friend who's a Washington fan grew up in Seattle and I are actually both running a half marathon the next morning like at 7 a.m. Eastern time So we're actually pretty thrilled that this is an afternoon game. Nice. Oh, where is your half marathon at? I Detroit international half. Nice. Very cool. Good luck to you. I Thank you very much. Yeah, I mean, I know a half is nothing for you. So that's not a You know, but still half is never nothing. That's true. That's true. Well, good luck to you Have fun with that and hopefully You can get a fun game in before you rest up for the next day We're as mentioned we're talking about that game also talk about just generally which of these undefeated teams We most buy into as far as being legitimate title contenders Cross this year and much more to get you ready in just one second the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed To covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus to get Fandall TV plus Go to fandall.com slash watch and log in via your Fandall sportsbook or Fandall fantasy account You can also Get Fandall TV plus on Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku devices Snap into action. That's NFL season with Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $200 in bonus Bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet. 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The app is so easy to use There's a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fandall.com and kick off the NFL season fandall official partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and present in select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC First online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued as non-latchrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Or visit fandall.com slash rg in colorado, Iowa, michigan, new jersey, Ohio, pennsylvania, illinois, tennessee and virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 1 8 and 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat connecticut 1 109 with it in indiana 1 105 22 40 700 visit ks gambling health dot com in cancels 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at organ maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia Or call 1 800 5 2 2 40 700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling help line ma.org or call 800 327 50 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 8 hope and y or text open y in new york Now let's start things off here more broadly and talk about those surprise undefeated teams. We got oklahoma u n c louisville the pack 12 schools and They're all undefeated But we know that records can be deceptive this early on the year when strength of schedule can be so disproportionate so Are you particularly skeptical of any of the those undefeated teams having staying power going forward? A few of them. I think oklahoma is legit I think this goes all the way back to last season when dylan gabriel was heard and texas really Put a big number on them. They also went 0 and 5 and 1 score games I think the real story is that oklahoma wasn't as bad as Their results suggested last season. I think we're seeing that This is a team that beat a texas team that I thought might be one of the best in the country a national title contender I mean, it was certainly close, but they were they were definitely in there The offense has been awesome. The defense has been good enough And you know, I mean dylan gabriel had a really really good game there. So I definitely think they're legit In terms of north carolina, we'll talk about them a little bit more later, but like Uh, I mean, who have they played south carolina? It's their their best Opponent so far and that was kind of a crazy game in which the defense played pretty well The defense has been a lot better than last year, but still not good We'll get into that in a little bit and then, you know louisville I don't know. I'm not I'm not necessarily buying what they're doing under jeff brahm really nice win um over noradame, but uh You know 26 an offense when I look at my uh, justice success rate 59th on defense nothing's really standing out Yeah, it'll probably get a lot harder pretty soon for them You can kind of see that in the market too because louisville is facing pittsburgh this week seven and a half point favorites against a pittsburgh team that's really struggling so far this year the total is low at 44 and a half So seven and a half is not like a small number by any means, but it does seem like the market Pretty skeptical of them so it sounds like you're kind of in line with what The market is saying about louisville specifically where the record is very good and they get deserve kudos for that But it doesn't mean we expect them to be some dominant team in the future For sure Absolutely, okay We'll stop with some of these fun games coming up throughout this week in college football beginning with that really fun game In the afternoon that is organ taking on washington washington is a two and a half point favorite at fandall sports book total in this game It's 67 and a half and ed you've been in washington I think on assistance last year with michael pennick's jr Being in town and they get a huge test here against organ So who you got coming out on top for organ against washington Well spoiler alert. My number is exactly 2.5. So Not necessarily seeing any value through the numbers I think this game is pretty interesting because both these teams came in with high expectations for offense which have Basically been met. I mean washington's been incredible First in the nation and adjusted success rate, uh, organ hasn't been too far behind at fourth washington really has a lot of weapons. I mean their top three receivers came back Uh, jaylon mcmillan actually hasn't played the last two games And he's listed as questionable for this game. I gotta think he plays in such a high profile game So, yeah, so they're they're great on the offensive side of the ball but there were question marks for both teams on the defensive side of the ball and You know organs actually really answered those questions. Uh, they're actually 14th in my adjusted success rate at this point And washington hasn't so much. They're 65th in the same metrics and what What I see when you look at these rosters is, you know, washington kind of leaned on a bunch of guys that played last year Uh, had a lot of returning starters hoping those guys would get better They've been kind of roughly the same organ uh, really went to the transfer portal brought in a ton of guys and Yeah, apparently dan landing knows what he's doing on the defensive side of the ball He really got a lot of players that seem to be making an impact Look six games can be a small sample size. You know, maybe organs defense is not You know top 15 unit like my numbers say now. I mean, I don't know. We'll kind we'll see about that Um, but right now I kind of think that you know, like if you just looked at numbers this year You would actually favor organ in this game and that's not the best way to make lines But it really is the strength that defense. I think if you had to lean any one way I would lean organ And probably under because I because I think the early returns on The organ defense are there and and you can kind of see the reasons why right a batch of new players Uh, you know, you actually have a corner that was expected to start that would bomb to buy transfer Colorado, uh, it really looks like Dan landings kind of figured out that side of the ball. So Yeah, interesting game. I would lean organ lean under But not seeing a ton of value. I wouldn't I wouldn't go bet these because of value I would go bet these because You want to have a little action on a on a preview game Uh, the total as you mentioned six seven and a half right now under is minus 110 if you do want to go that way The plus two and a half on organ is minus 102, but Also could take the approach of this is going to be a fun game. I don't want to sweat it So just sit back and watch that could be the other approach to this game as well Let's talk now about miami taking on you and see where right now UNC is a three and a half point favorite total for this game is 57 and a half and You talked a lot at about how the value of having a potential high end draft pick a quarterback Gives a big leg up to a team as far as their upside goes and UNC definitely has a drake may so Tight spread here. How do you see this game playing out? Yeah, I mean first we got to talk about miami and and not nearly on the ball last week. I mean it was like I went to bed So I actually found this out the next morning but in case you were under a rock this weekend, miami had the ball three point lead and Should have taken a knee they didn't they ran a play they got fumbled Georgia Tech gets the ball back pretty deep in their own territory. Miami should still win the game Georgia Tech completes a pass Probably pretty defended pretty well went right over the guy's fingertips Miami should still probably win the game last play of the game And somehow miami lets the Georgia Tech receiver get behind both of them For a game winning touchdown, which was almost not a winning game winning touchdown because the guy slid And almost slid at the one inch line. Yeah. Well, which was not out of the question. So uh, just kind of a remarkable remarkable outcome remarkable set of uh circumstances, which I think you I don't know. I mean my number is pretty close to this. I have UNC by about five and uh I don't know. I was kind of thinking maybe there'd be some more market correction because of that, but there really isn't um, you know, I mean miami has has done pretty well Obviously lost for the first time last week. I think UNC is um, you know, they're they're pretty decent on offense You know, drake may is great. It's going to be a top draft pick But didn't really have a lot of weapons coming back from last year So when you look and they're 18 then passing success rate adjusted for opponent in my number is I think that's pretty good Overall the defense is 46th, which is a vast vast improvement from last season So I think it should be an interesting game You know, North Carolina should remain undefeated, but it's a pretty tight spread. So don't be surprised if they don't Looking at this number, it's a three and a half right now, but the three and a half is minus 115 So it sounds like that's you know, once you account for the juice of minus 115 pretty in line with your numbers Are you Going to pass on that one despite showing value because it's pretty close to the mark pretty close to where you're at Yeah, I'm definitely going to pass on it. I mean, I think miami was a team that hasn't looked The best in in my numbers and you know a team that kind of looked at like they had rebounded From a tough season last year, but I'm not necessarily buying it yet. So yeah, I'm definitely pass All right, let's finish up here by talking about usc at notar dame where notar dame is a two and a half point favorite total is 60 and a half and We talked preseason at about how skeptical you were of usc's defense and they have Come through on that they have definitely been as bad as you thought they may be But now they're on the road. They're facing a very competent offense and Trying to remain undefeated. So Can the defense for usc do enough here to keep this team undefeated and pull off the upset in this one? Yeah, I mean, I think the idea of like usc needing to pull off an upset here is kind of interesting in and of itself I I should have checked what I would have made this in the preseason But I wouldn't be surprised if I would have had usc favored in in this game And it's and it's actually probably one of these put on quote out of conference games That should really be an in-conference game a little bit less the home field simply because These two programs know each other and usc always makes this trip Every other year so Yeah, I mean I have notar dame by about 2.3 points. So I'm pretty in line with the market here I'm certainly seeing what you were saying about usc's defense. It was You know, it's 42nd when I look at adjusted success rate But it's a lot worse than adjusted yards per play. So they're they're doing better stopping people But the explosive plays are are definitely hurting them, you know, giving a 506 yards there at zonah and 41 points Definitely not, you know what? Definitely not, you know, what they were going for at the beginning of the season You know, they kind of had You know a mix of returning starters and bringing in transfers. It doesn't look like it's working You know, you look at Oregon, Washington usc You know, I mean the defense of god Dan landing is the one that's kind of pushed his unit ahead and you know, that might be the difference in in In that conference. So can they get it done? I'm not sure. Oh, did that total go down? Yeah, we're down two points. I think there's a lot of wind this weekend I'm not sure if that's impacting this game. I know for NFL on sunday There is wind everywhere and totals on monday and the NFL just crashed as a result of that Yeah, yeah, it's that time of year. I mean, usually well, actually, I guess it's not that time of year. Usually yeah, it shouldn't be Usually you think about really having an impact in november We got we got a ways to go till november. So, um, you know, I'm not seeing any value in this game When the market was at 62 and a half I did notice that the unabated line which is an aggregator of sharp sports books They were leading on the under probably for the what rather weather reasons that you mentioned So I guess I'm not surprised at all. I've really actually found that on a big line to be pretty strong predictor market movement Um, and and some winners. So not surprised that that went down Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think it should be a great game. Uh, we'll see Yeah, it's definitely the wind. I'm looking in south bend on saturday night, uh, 14 mile per hour winds in the forecast So that's there. There is some rain. I don't care personally as much about rain It's more about wind. But when you have both together, that's a bit of a gross spot So I don't know. So wouldn't be shocked if this total comes down more Just based on that weather alone I want to go back to usc though because he mentioned That their success rate has been better than expected Um, but then the yards for play is very high now We typically say explosives are hard to predict big plays are hard to predict but The prior assumption for usc's defense that they were not good Does that play into that analysis where you say, okay Skeptical of usc's defense or maybe we do expect explosives to remain in play there just because we don't think this defense is Maybe as good as the success rate early on says Yeah, I mean, I think it's you know, I think this, uh, it Well, okay. So first of all, just let me point out like the numbers that I mentioned 40 second and success rate 91st in yards per play That is only data from this year So when you when you put the handicap on and you say, okay, well you know You know, fbs average was a pretty decent result I think for this defense because they were a lot worse last year top 25 would have been kind of a miracle So, you know, they're kind of somewhere near where we expected them to be I guess when you average things together I think um, I think there's a lot of signal in yards per play even though it does it does, uh You know, there is a big influence from those explosive plays But but I certainly we we in no sense. Maybe we Lean on success rate, but we certainly don't throw out yards for play at all So I do think there is some signal in there So maybe right now I would say they're slightly worse than I expected pre-season, but that's it's not too far from The outcomes that I expect It is certainly in a range where I think it's going to hold this team back And we may see that on Saturday Okay, well, let's finish up here by opening up the entire board to you when you look at the lines right now for week number seven What are your favorite bets across college football for this week? I am pretty pumped that we have one more week of fading Kentucky. So they are they're hosting Missouri and uh Kentucky went to georgia last week and got their their clocks cleaned Georgia played like the team that we expected them to this pre-season And that was kind of nice because I'm pretty sure I talked about georgia minus 14 and a half on the show Last week that was uh, that was pretty comfortable from the beginning I think what the market is saying is that okay. Well fine. We'll give you a pass. It's georgia I don't think Kentucky is a very good football team. Uh, I think devon leary is Terrible and he was last year and he continues to be this year Uh, they are 92nd in my justice success rate They really pulled off that win against florida because a lot of explosive runs by ray davis The running back on the flip side. Missouri has actually been a pretty good football team They're they're looking pretty good on both sides of the ball and my justice success rate 20th in offense 23rd on defense they came into a lot of questions at the quarterback position. Uh, but brady cook has been pretty good Uh, they did not win last week when lsu came to visit and cook looked kind of bad through pick six At the end of the game that really widened that spread but in general he's been really good this year. So, uh What i'm seeing is missouri is a pretty decent football team. Uh, I don't think kentucky is all that good and um I mean my number is favor missouri outright. I think there's a lot of value in plus two and a half on the road at kentucky So right now the two and a half on missou is minus 108 their money line is plus 116 Not a massive gap. Uh, would you rather take the points there or the money line on missou? Oh, I don't know both Sure, okay. I really don't like kentucky. I do not think they're a good football team. So, um Yeah, this is definitely definitely the last week. You'll see a little number. Well, actually, maybe not definitely Yeah, missou is pretty good too. I think they've gotten respect from the market as well So I think that you know, maybe they give them a second pass Especially if it's a you know a game where they're competitive throughout that game, but you know Like you said you did you did recommend georgia last week minus 14 and a half and I followed you on that one and Never really had any concerns. I stopped checking in the second quarter. So Felt pretty good about that one from the start. So, you know, if we can go back to back on that Feel pretty good. So missou plus two and a half is minus 108 Ed also does like their money line plus 116 right now at vandal sportsbook That is all that we have here for today on the college football side of things We are back with you once again tomorrow breaking down nfl Week number six with Ed once again as well. Don't forget prime time. Tom with Tom becky Oh, he'll be recording the Thursday night football preview for the chiefs in the Broncos Either tonight or tomorrow depends on Travis calcy status, but that'll be up in your podcast to eat A later on you can find the other covering the spread shows on the fan dual youtube page and fan dual tv Plus ed people want to find your numbers or check out all of your work. Where can they do all that? I am at the power rank.com. Check out my free sports betting email newsletter I send out five nuggets saturday every week not just my stuff, but Other people out there that I that I think are plus cv in terms of betting So Gives you a sense for who else that maybe you should follow check that out at the power rank.com All right You can find Ed on twitter at the power rank and find his other podcast the football analytics show wherever you get your podcast I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fan dual research at fan dual research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today? We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down nfl week number six This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network