 Good afternoon to all. Thank you very much for the kind invitation to join this very interesting discussion. My take will be on climate. I will split in my earlier head as a climate scientist for most of my life. And then my recent experience as in working science policy interface in Brasilia for the last three and a half years. Let me start by making a very strong statement. Tropical forests face a critical dilemma now and for the coming decades. Even if tropical nations and Brazil is doing a lot along that direction, other nations as well, succeed in cutting down the forestation to near zero in the next, let's say, yesterday's commitment by 2030. Unchecked climate change may wipe out all the gains over the course of the next 30, 50 years. I think this is very profound and very worrisome. And I will talk more about that. So basically, as we know today, two days ago, Global Carbon Project released the latest carbon balance for the planet. And you know, whereas in the early 90s, land use change emissions in the tropics accounted for 25% of global emissions. Today, it's only 8%. So this is very important. We should pay attention. It's very critically important to protect the forests, but perhaps less and less so for emissions, more for many other reasons than biodiversity and environmental services, other environmental services besides carbon. So this is a very, I just want to provoke you and to shock you that it's more than protecting the forest. We must reduce global emissions. That means fossil fuel emissions. Let me, let me see if I can make, okay. First on the climate science, and why am I saying that? Of course, it comes from many theoretical modeling studies in which there is an indication that there are tipping points. This is particularly for Amazon, and I apologize. My focus will be the Amazon. But I think the Amazon illustrates what's going on for all tropical forests of the planet. Basically, for the Amazon, there may be what we call two stable, biome climate equilibrium, stable states. One that's the current one forests, dominating all of the Amazon you see on the top diagram. This is stable. You can perturb that equilibrium a little bit here. Droughts or floods or more rain, less rain, and it will go back to a forest cover. But there is another stable equilibrium, which is represented in the second diagram. If you perturb, and one part of the Amazon becomes a savanna, then the climate envelope for that region becomes a savanna climate envelope. Warmer temperatures, longer, dry seasons, and then a savanna will become also a stable climate. A stable savanna climate equilibrium is possible. This is from theory, from modeling and from theory. And if you perturb and you transgress and reach the second state, then fire and droughts will make it even deeper. Deeper drought means a very stable, robust equilibrium. So this is a theoretical possibility. However, many observations in the Amazon, including control experiments, like in northern Montogrosso by Ipun, setting fire, seeing what the effect of repeated fire and droughts are showing, that this hypothesis, so-called savannaization hypothesis, is real, is something we should worry. If you perturb the forest, a combination of fire, land use, and droughts, you may tip the balance. And many studies indicate that those thresholds should not be transgressed. 3.5 degrees and warming. The Amazon has warmed one degree so far. And the forestation limit threshold is 40%. We have the forest in the Amazon overall, all of the Amazon, about 20%. And more and more studies, observations are showing, perhaps we are starting to see a lengthening of the drought season. We are not certain about that. So basically, my message here is be careful. We may be playing with a system that may switch to this other state. If it switches to the other state, it will be a savanna part of the Amazon at least for hundreds of years or millennia. The next question I pose is, are we seeing climate change in the Amazon? And I guess my answer, and not only my answer, but also IPCC's answer is perhaps we are starting to see climate change operating in the Amazon. We have seen in the last 10 years, 9 years, two record-breaking droughts, three record-breaking floods, a lot of rainfall, a lot of droughts. In sequence, very unlikely statistically speaking to be caused by natural variability. And climate change models project that climate variability will be exacerbated. And perhaps it's already exacerbated. So still tentative conclusions. And I guess this comes from a straight from IPCC AR5 report. Copy is exactly changing in extreme flow in the Amazon river. There's media confidence, major contribution from climate change. So it's not now, you're not saying this is only climate variability natural. Science is starting to point that this may be the early precursory science of climate change. So this is my, let's say my more science element of my short intervention here. We may be risking to push the tropical forest, the thresholds past the tipping point and changing vegetation forever. From climate reasons and land use change reasons alone. Next, let me move on perhaps to a better, a bit more positive aspects. Brazil has, this is well-known data. Today, everybody, Brazilian president yesterday referred to the data in the climate summit in this city. And Brazil has successfully implemented policies to curb illegal deforestation logging in the Amazon. Deforestation rates you can see there dropped 80% in the period from 2005 to 2013. Somewhat fortuitously, science policy interface or science and policy engaged. And I'm not a social scientist and I can't claim, I understand why science and policy engaged, but they did. And many people in this audience and some of the speakers who are very important scientists in making that engagement to occur. And so this engagement, for instance, made that satellite-based systems like Impis, my former institute in Brazil, Impis, satellite-based systems, PRODES and deter systems were used, are used routinely daily as a very important tool to keep illegal deforestation down. And that they provided invaluable support to those policies and still providing. However, bringing down deforestation rates from the still high level of today, about 5 to 6,000 square kilometers a year, to near zero presents many unforeseen challenges. Government targets are for cutting deforestation to less than 3,600 square kilometers a year by 2020. And that mean many dropping Brazilian emissions, considerably Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions dropped 40% from 2005 to 2013. This is remarkable. Still, Brazilian per capita emissions is about 6 tons of CO2 equivalent per inhabitant. And of course for 2 degrees, we need to bring that down to 2. So it's still a major challenge on the planet, not only Brazil. Of course we may be getting close to command and control policies which are mostly responsible for bringing it down, curbing illegal deforestation. Are necessary and they will have to continue forever, but may not be sufficient. So we need to come up with some clever ideas. One very obvious one that Brazil is starting to practice is using the deforested areas more effectively. So Brazil launched 2010-11 a low carbon agricultural plant. This is very all encompassing all of Brazil, not only the Amazon. It's starting, we cannot assess, but it's well meaning, well thought out. It has already put $4 billion for subsidized loans over to 20,000 farmers in Brazil, all over including the Amazon. They are taking those loans, but they have to modernize agricultural in 6 different activities, nitrogen fixation, recovering, recuperating $25 million, degraded pastures, integration of crops and cattle raising, agroforestry systems and many more. So this is a win-win, increasing productivity, increasing gains for farmers and also reducing. That's the target, $150 million by 2020, $150 million less tons of CO2 equivalent emitted by Brazilian agriculture. By the way, with these land use changes, successes, Brazil is becoming more like other industrialized nations. Most of the emissions come from energy and also agriculture, but less from land use change. So this is very much the obvious, to create incentives to agriculture, the traditional agriculture to reduce expansion of the agricultural frontier. And we have to assess for now on the success. I'm very optimistic that this will proven to be very successful in a few years' time. Of course, but I think this is not sufficient. Even that is not sufficient. I think we have to invent to create, to innovate. And the innovation would come from emergence of a new transformative economic paradigm for the global tropics in the words of late Brazilian geographer Bertha Becker, to add value to the heart of the forest. There are many promising examples of biodiversity-derived value chains. You're going to hear more about that, other speakers. But theoretically, 50 to 100 such value chains being developed and entering domestic and global markets, and I think economically this is doable, would suffice for providing livelihood and well-being for all the forest dwellers, plus millions of urbanites linked to these value chains. I think this is really the way to go in addition to taking, making good use of environmental ecosystem services. This is related to these successful policies that Brazil undertook in the last 10 years. Let me just conclude by giving you, because the title of this seminar is New Thinking for Transformational Change. Let me give you my own thinking for transformational change for the Brazilian Amazon, but I think it can be replicated. We need three revolutions, at least three, I think. Professor Holden mentioned many aspects of renewable energy, and this is also needed in the Amazon. Most of the energy in the remote areas of the Amazon is still thermal diesel, thermal generators, and they have to bring all the way up the river's diesel fuel. This costs $2 billion a year to Brazilian people, because these costs are subsidized by all nations. So we need also a solution in terms of renewable energy opportunities, and there are many. But I just want to focus here on three revolutions that I think we need to undertake and Brazil is well positioned to take this on. So to scale up a biodiverse ecosystem service model in the Amazon, economically sound, socially inclusive, and environmentally protective, to national and global scales require at least these three revolutions. First is a revolution in science, technology, innovation. It must offer solutions for the emergence of an innovative local bio industry. I think the industry has to be local. It's not only seeing tropical countries as producers of goods or commodities of natural products, and industrialization is done elsewhere, either in southern Brazil or abroad. Local bio industry has to be developed in the tropical forest regions. This is very important, and of course this is something where I work, the Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation in Brazil, we are very concerned. I think this is our part of the business to encourage the development of this bio industry done in partnership with the private sector, with private R&D labs of innovative companies. Not only Brazilian companies, I mean, we want to invite, encourage broad development of these possibilities, and there are many. A second revolution is one that Brazil has advanced much more, which is the ICT revolution to connect every corner of the forest to information, highways and global markets. Brazil has contracted a Brazilian government, a satellite to be launched in 2016 for providing broadband, very cheap broadband access to the web in all remote areas of the Amazon, and there's a very innovative fiber optics project to run the Amazon river from Berlin all the way, perhaps even to Equitos in Peru, and so provide fast connection, connectivity to all riverine populations. This is important to bring the Amazon people, the forest dwellers to the ICT era, information era. But the most difficult one, I think the challenge really is a revolution in education of all. So really empowerment is linked completely to providing mass quality education to all of the Amazonian people, and this really presents a major challenge, not a simple one, certainly is one of the key sustainable development goals for the planet and for the Brazilian Amazonidas as well. And this is really the great challenge. I think even if we succeed in the information technology highway infrastructure is being developed, I think this is the easier part. The science and technology innovation capacity is being built. It's not easy, but it's being built, but the very important one has to be taken up with great priority is really mass and quality education for all corners of the Amazon. I think if Brazil succeeds in these three revolutions, we can see a brighter future for the Amazon. Thank you very much.