 With that being said FMC 25 bases point hiked in it looks like it probably is right and Fed officials a signal divide over whether to hike rates again And there's a bit of the bit of a divide again. It just this is pretty just the lead up to almost like the the fanfare, you know the Again, like I said the build up to were to the to the data. They already kind of know what it is anyway And New York chief John Williams says one more hike is reasonable Chicago feds goals be calls for prudence and patience. So you've got two kind of opposing views And says the Federal Reserve official sounded divergent notes about the central bank's next policy move With one of its top officials suggesting another rate increase may be needed to quote inflation And it's the newest policymaker signaling a pause may be in order. So it's given it a 50 50 But what do you really want to look at as well to kind of confirm that and that is the Fed watch tool CME Fed watch tool and It looks like you can see the probabilities and we start off on May. We're in May The no change is actually twenty eight point five percent and a hike is actually priced in seventy One point five percent. Let me just refresh this just in case the numbers do change Yes, so it's it's changed so the hike is definitely being priced in which means that if inflation comes in lower than expected then the dollar is likely to To to probably weaken and devalue and there is definitely an opportunity there, right? But this is probably what you want to you know, look at look towards in terms of what the market is pricing in and so So, yeah, I think it's I think personally it's already been priced in I thought this was quite interesting as well if you are a If you're looking at the stock market inflation data will shatter the stock market calm Goldman partner warns a veteran trader says data at all below Consensus to spur rally if inflation top six percent expect a drop of at least two percent in S&P 500 So why are we looking at, you know, the stock market? It was really just really from Somebody asked a couple member if it was I think it might have been Mr. Diligent or something like that who asked about the correlation between You know interest rates in the stock market and simply put It's not 100% you know correlated all time, but it's important to know if you are looking at, you know, the stock market And trade in the stock market, which I don't particularly do but if you are then rate cuts are Are helpful and typically drive stocks because when you start to Cut rates, then it's really cheap borrowing and lending, right? So traders will borrow money for cheaper because they can get money for cheaper And then they will put it into higher yielding assets. And so, you know, you might be thinking, okay Well, you know, what's inflation got to do with this? Well, if you've taken the the short course and test you'll understand that today's Reading. Yeah, we'll determine whether the Federal reserve as we just spoken about will high crates Continue going to continue to high crates, maybe aggressively or actually pause and if they pause then at what the mark that what that will signal to the market in fact will be that The Fed are likely to now start to enter into their cutting cycle a lot sooner. Yeah, and so You might see actually a stock market rally if The Fed will inflation. Yeah Comes out lower. Yeah, and so you can see that reflected in fact in Goldman Sachs's Goldman Sachs provides CPI scenario for analysis And this is why it's really important to understand the relationship between Inflation and interest rates in GDP because then you can start to read these articles and make a lot more sense out of them Right because on the surface you might think just up what the hell is inflation got to do with the stock market going higher But it's yes, it's about inflation. But actually it's like a proxy for The central bank policy, which then you know inflation kind of dictates, right? And so a marked CPI reading Which is going to be in what 13 minutes keeping an eye on it, right? So below. Yeah 4.6 the market reaction is oh, sorry 4.6 not not 0.4. I put like a Call I think actually might that might be their headline. I'm not too sure. I remember anyways So below 4.6. Yeah Up at least 2% right and that's because if you have a reading below 4.6 It means that inflation is coming down which then means that the Fed again are less likely to hike Yeah, in fact, they're gonna pause and so the market will then start to say alright Then this might be the era of cheap money and we'll put some money into the stock market, correct? And if it's above inflation goes above 6% then you know the fear that the Federal Reserve has to Hike rates a lot more aggressively Which means borrowing a lending cost go higher so then The S&P reaction will be down does that does that make sense guys? John does that make sense everyone John says he can't hear okay Well, it's recorded now John. I think can you hear me now cuz I think you've logged in you've logged into a new account John can you hear me? Well, everyone else can hear me John unfortunate. Oh, you can hear me now, right brilliant. Okay, cool So you have to catch the rest of that On the recording so I thought that was interesting And also as well going back to priced in right so going back to what we talk about when it comes to priced in yeah This is already being these scenarios. Yeah, I've already been priced in to the average trader Yeah, who doesn't understand about what has been priced in We have up to at least 2% on the S&P and down to at least 2% so there's an auction, right? There's a range if prices come out So if inflation comes out. Yeah, and any of these scenarios You can see that the upper limit would be 2% from where we are now and the lower limit would be at least 2% From where we are now wherever that is but remember this is all going to be priced in eventually. Yeah If it Sorry if it does happen Right. Anyways, US futures head higher before inflation data lands market wraps. So that's basically talking about this So the futures market basically, you know, it's heading higher. All right, so everyone's expecting a hike Or inflation to come in at least You know and be sticky Rather than actually falling so Yeah, the Fed will are likely to hike or at least sing with that they are And I think that's pretty much it but also as well, sorry, there was this so this came out just before I Started the course is talking about North America construction outlook banking was trigger risk of hard landing And that's another thing as well, by the way, is that there are fears of a hard landing Yeah, so their interest rate Environment was already weighing on the outlook for construction activity But the recent stresses in the US and European banking sectors have added to fears that lenders will increasingly step back the US looks especially vulnerable given the outsized role of small and regional banks and so again hard landing potentially coming For the economy, right, which is the reason why when you look at some of the forecasts, yeah If you go to the bank research and this was from ing as well If you look at the dollar, then if you can see that properly, but if you look at the dollar against pretty much Oh, here we go dollars dollar sides You'll see that the dollar Looks to weaken against pretty much most of the currencies Yeah, so you can see over the next one to three months at least the next six months You see from one three three to one two five The pound looks like it gets a bit weaker But then in fact, you know goes goes up back up to the one two fours and even one two eights within the next 12 months The dollar strengthens only against really the Swiss franc, which again I can understand that Yeah dollar CAD Spot where we are now probably one month slightly higher, but eventually starting to go down Australian dollar US dollar oh six seven Months time may be down to oh six six, but then we see Six eight and seventy Yeah, and then same thing with New Zealand dollar six two at the moment Staying around six to six four six six So it looks like that is still being priced in in terms of the the The dollar being weaker, right? So with that being said yeah, I think that is going to be priced in so the yen so the yen Surprise yield curve still on so my bias for the yen is