 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to a very eventful AccessToTrader.com Nightly Update Show. I hope everybody is doing okay. So if you watched the video from last night, we obviously were expecting a CPI and majority of these CPIs, PPI's, ABC's, BVG's, whatever the hell they are, they're kind of one ear and out the other. It's just so much peppering of constant data on a weekly basis, just over and over and over. It's a jobs report, whatever the case may be. So a lot of times you will just sit there and you're like, ah, the Fed's speaking tomorrow. Yeah, who cares? The CPI is coming out. Who cares? Well, let me say this much. Some days you just turn around and you go, yeah, I got nothing. Literally, I really have nothing. I really have no explanation of what happened here. And, you know, we walked into today, if you watched last night's video, I said, well, you know, the market's a little, right? It got a little bit ahead of itself. You know, the market just needs an excuse from a hotter, that's what they call it, a hotter CPI just to give a little bit of a sell-off. By no means did I mean, by any stretch of the imagination, a 5% plus decline on the NASDAQ and the worst one-day tumble on the Dow Jones Industrial since the pandemic of 2020. And the point is very simple, right? And here's my point. I've been always advocating the idea that nobody knows anything. We're all schmucks. We're all idiots, right? The only thing we can control is our risk, our research, and apply it for the next day. But when the next day is an absolute crap storm, right? Right off the word go, you have very, very limited room to operate. Again, it's like the theory of, well, if a stock goes down and it takes out 95% of its average range, well, think about it. You're working with the other 5%, right? It's called crumbs, okay? And obviously if you're shorting a market that's down, like for example, NASDAQ was down 400 today right from the word go. So when you're getting to that point, you always have the ability to get squeezed back very, very quickly. And when you look at, forget about what happened today for a second. Look back at what the cues did. And they went from literally 290 to 315 sessions, a pullback, right? A healthy pullback would have been expected. A 5.5% decline, giving back the 50-day moving average and going through 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 moving average at the same time, not as much. So the moral of the story is, I don't care how long you've been trading, okay? What your experience level is, what you think you know, what you think you might know, whatever your arrogance level could be at level 99. But all it takes is one move of the market that comes out of left field. And usually I'm pretty good at reading what's going to happen the next day. Well, yeah, a little pullback became not so little and yada, yada, yada, 5.5% later, here we are. Now here's the crazy part, right? When I was looking at charts today at the end of the day, I started looking at charts. And I said to myself, well, let me get a bigger look. Sometimes, again, the trading sessions today, I had a small scalp on the video, a small scalp on Tesla to the downside, blah, blah. Irrelevant, right? Irrelevant. Because again, there wasn't a lot of values. You could imagine you're not going to be shorting, you know, something down 8% at the open, right? Nobody's thinking this is the market's going to go down 1200 points. So the value today was kind of skewed, right? But the most important part is I'm trying to gather data, gather data, gather data. And as I'm watching the market into the close, I said, all right, look, we got a pretty healthy setup here, pretty healthy, aggressive sell-off here. What's done is done today, right? Whether you're an investor or a trader, whatever the case may be, it's over. The past is the past. We don't live there anymore, right? It's time to kind of pick up the pieces of however you finish up the day and kind of move forward. And the closing price is the most important part. So here we are, right? So we gave back literally three or five major support zones on one channel, literally right from the word go, literally right from the go, and they just paused for like one candle for like 20 minutes, and then they resumed into the close. So the question is what happens next? Right now we close below 294 on the Qs, which is this linear regression line here, right? It's so easy to turn around and go, well, obviously the lows are coming up, you know, are coming up on deck. Yeah, I mean, from, you know, if you have eyeballs, you can kind of see that. But the point is now there's more data coming up, right? And the one thing I've learned a long time ago, yeah, phase value is phase value. And you can see here, and obviously the game plan for tomorrow is, hey, if the market gaps up, anything that confirms back down today's channel doesn't get hit. That's an obvious thing. But what happens if the market comes out with some crazy data, right? What happens if they kind of reverse the curse of what happened today? Is it so impossible? Is it so improbable that we could be sitting here tomorrow with, you know, a whole conversation was, well, a 1200-point decline turned into a 900-point rally and then anything is possible. Everything is possible. Anything is possible. But the point is we don't, you know, look at the market of what potentially could be the impossible. We try to look at the market what potentially could be the probable. And that's kind of what we look down here. If you look at a lot of charts going through the NASDAQ 100, again, this is kind of what we always look at reality, not what, you know, what already happened in the past. You start looking at a lot of daily charts. You're going to see a lot of similarities in those daily charts, and you don't have to be very, very creative. I kind of use that point all the time when I'm recording videos and you see a pretty clean setup for the next day, right? When you look at the charts and you look at the queues and obviously we broke four or five different supports, obviously there's a downside bias. And you start looking at names like Amazon, right? Amazon closed the first time below the 50-day moving average, right? All these other times that it tested the 50-day moving average once, twice, three times, four times, right? It never closed below. This is the first close on Amazon below the 50-day moving average. Apple, that was the strongest freaking thing yesterday, right? The absolute monster of all monsters, they was the first one to really start taking down opening range lows and the big bully, right? Who bullied shorts yesterday that was up 4%, yesterday was up, you know, six points, gave almost 10 back today, which is a very, very concerning thing if you're a buy-side trader, right? So look how close we are to the downside, right? This is the downside channel of Apple, right? We're very, very close. We're sitting, where are we on the 150-day moving average? Who knows, within the next day or two, what happens if this thing starts confirming down below the 150-day moving average? Look in the video, there wasn't an uptick today. There literally was not an uptick. Even when the market tried to rally, right? Literally tried to rally at some juncture of the day today. This thing never went. And look how close this is. Hey, look, you don't have to be a professional, you know, 20-year veteran to see, look how close we are from taking down a major, major technical damage here, right? Look at a name, for example, like AMD. Semi just didn't participate whatsoever. They're not even close on any balances. Look how close AMD is to getting the bottom of the channel. And you can go on and on and on, right? Boeing, look how Boeing, right? Like on and on and on. So the key for today is, for tonight, going into tomorrow's session, again, every chart is going to look pretty much the same, right? It's not going to make a difference whether you're staring out tomorrow, Amazon, or Netflix, or Meta, right? Speaking of Meta, right? Look at a chart on Meta. I mean, look at this. This thing, let me show you the weekly chart just to give you an idea, right? Look at the weekly, look at the week. This is the lowest close on Meta going all the way back, all the way back to June, right? This is a long distribution here. This is the lowest close in this whole formation. So you don't have to be very creative to kind of get into your game plan tomorrow. This is what happens with more data, right? The bulls don't want this thing to happen, right? The last thing the bulls want is a gap up tomorrow because what's going to wind up happening is, as we talk about on every major sell-off that we've seen for a number of years, any time you get a gap up after technical damage, there's a high probability that gap up is going to get stuffed into supply. Matter of fact, if you look at any chart, right? Any chart looking into the 60-minute view, right? Think about it. Imagine Amazon gaps up, right? It's going to gap up into supply. Imagine Meta gaps up, right? It's going to gap up right into supply. So you kind of get the point here. Stock supply is emotional buyers meeting technical sales. Now imagine the whole market gaps up tomorrow and gets stuffed into supply and goes right on the day. If that's going to be the equation, right? If that's going to be the formula and they start taking down today's channels, well, then you have some really big levels coming up for the queues, right? You've got today's lows, which is obviously going to be a major turning point for tomorrow's session, right? But then you have not only today's lows, then you have the low in this whole formation in September going down to this 291 level. 291 starts to build. Yeah, then we have measure potential all the way down to 285. You look at IWM, right? You look at IWM, this is the lowest close in this whole formation the last three, four days. It lost the 50-day moving average that it only took, you know, it only took, what, two weeks to regain. It lost it again. Again, if IWM starts taking out this 181.5, 181, again, there's a lot of room down as well. It's SPY as well. So the craziest part about this market and my philosophy is always I don't know anything, right? The key is for me, research, apply for the next day. Don't guess. Don't try to be smart. Don't try to anticipate. Don't be a fortune teller. Trade the price action. But I tell you one thing today, I was completely dumbfounded what I saw, especially off that opening range low. The stocks, you can just see it on the cues and just not even on the cues, just any individual stocks, they just kept on going and going and going and going and just when you think you're chasing, right? For example, I showed in the video today, right? I showed it when it was down like eight and a half dollars. I said, my God, I feel like inside, I was like, I can't believe I'm shorting this damn thing, eight and a half dollars, especially opening range. Granted, it went down some for sure, and then snapped back and went down, so it went snapped back. But the point is it was so violent inside your body, you can't say to yourself, I feel really, really good about this. I feel really warm and fuzzy, shorting a mega name, a mega name down eight, nine points in a day, opening range lows, especially after we had this really, really aggressive rally. Sometimes you have the answers, today was one of those days, I turn around, I go, yep, I got nothing, I got nothing, you know, expect the unexpected, the market's gonna do what it has to do, and I tell you one thing, man, if your game plan last night, right, resulted in a five and a half percent decline today in moving averages, and this is something you plan for, congratulations, you're a much better human being, definitely a much better trader than I am, and fantastic job. My hat goes to you, but again, the day is over, right, we reassessed, we have a definitely a viable game plan in for tomorrow's session, more data's gonna come out, at this point, nothing, right, nothing will surprise me, nothing will shock me, but at least, again, the shocking part comes if you're not prepared. If you have a game plan and that game plan is gone, the game plan gets set on fire, you could always go to plan B, you could always go to plan Z, but if you're trading because you wanna be smart, you wanna show everybody how intelligent you are, you wanna show everybody how savvy you are, the market will gut punch you, the market will gut punch you very, very aggressively because the most important thing about this market, and I kept on saying this for years and years and years, this is the greatest reality show that's not on television, there is no scripts, okay, so when the market feels like it's time to punch you in the kidneys, guess what, you're gonna get punched in the kidneys. So we have a game plan for tomorrow, obviously the value would be a gap up, stuff into supply and start confirming bottom channels, that would obviously give us the biggest point of aggression, but at this point, after what I saw today, everything is on the table. Guys, be safe, have a great night everybody, get your game plan ready, tomorrow should be another wild one, have a great night everybody, I'll see you tomorrow.