 Were Russia and Ukraine close to a peace deal in 2022? What stopped it? The US Secretary of State, in a high stakes visit, met the Chinese President and Foreign Minister. Is this a thaw or a diversion? And India's north-eastern state of Manipur has seen violence for over a month. What is happening there? Welcome to Daily D, Brief. I'm your host, Shriya. And these are the stories for the day. Russian President Putin dropped a bombshell during a meeting with leaders of African countries when he said that a peace deal with Ukraine had been signed in 2022. However, the Ukrainians reportedly did not honour the deal. This revelation came out when the leaders of the seven African countries met him as part of a peace delegation. They had also travelled to Ukraine earlier. What do these developments indicate? We have with us Newsclick's editor-in-chief, Prabir Purkayastha. So, Prabir, Putin showed this draft treaty, which was supposedly ditched by Ukraine. And, I mean, what do we make of this treaty? And where does the wall today stand? What does it look like? And which direction is it headed, given all these circumstances? Well, two different questions altogether, because what was shown was something that happened in 2022, shortly after what's called the Special Military Operations that the Russians were doing, which is what was they announced it at. And this was a series of meetings that had taken place earlier in Belarus, and this one was supposed to have taken place in Turkey. So, both sides had met that we know. I still remember the Financial Times report on these discussions, that both sides were very close to a agreed document. And in fact, out of some 15 points, according to Financial Times and what I seem to remember, that almost 13 or 14 had been agreed, only one point was still open. So, and they said it's a matter of days before the treaty is actually decided. So, both sides were there discussing this, and this was happening, obviously with Putin, as well as Zelensky in the loop. Now, what he has shown is a draft agreement in which both sides had initiated or signed, but there were still disagreements on certain issues, but certain issues had been decided. So, according to again, what has been shown and what we at that time knew from all the reports that were coming in, that essentially Ukraine would agree to being not a part of any military bloc, which was the key issue that Russia had, that they should not be a part of NATO, and this should be signed in their constitution. That seems to have been agreed, and there are a whole lot of other issues which were agreed. What was really clearly not agreed to was that both sides had differences of how much arms, weapons Ukraine would keep and not keep. So, there is a table on which both sides had their figures, Russia says X, Ukraine says Y, but there were they did not seem to be any fundamental objection to discussing the number of weapons each side would keep, I mean which side the Ukraine would keep and that it would, there would be a limit. So, it seems both sides were close to agreement and this is what was surprising, suddenly how this whole thing turned and it seems to have turned not between the negotiators, but seems to have turned when Boris Johnson went to Ukraine, met with Zelensky and it seems to be that was the point at which Zelensky withdrew from the treaty, Ukraine withdrew from the treaty. Now, what changed? That is the big question, why is it or what were the assurances? Boris Johnson had given Zelensky, making it possible or making that being the reason why Zelensky seems to have withdrawn from the treaty. So, the conventional wisdom has been that there were threats that if you don't do this, we won't give you any money, you will be completely at the mercy of the Russians, we won't support you and the implicit threat therefore you could also be deposed, you have enough for you know people inside Ukraine to see that you are pulled down etc. So, this is the conventional wisdom which some of us had. Now there is another part of the story which is has been put forward by some of the military analysts that the price that was offered to Zelensky was that we will give you advanced weapons, we will give them very quickly and with advanced weapons and completely the what shall we say integration of those weapons with our satellite system, our signaling system will be such that you will be able to punch through the Russian lines and therefore you will be able to at least push them back if not defeat them. So, this was the basis it seemed that this treaty was really sabotaged by Ukraine, I mean by Boris Johnson and both the UK and the United States playing the key role. Of course the other part of it is as a goodwill gesture Russia had withdrawn their soldiers away from Kiev. Now the argument is that this was a defeat for Russia, Russians have said this is a goodwill gesture because we are almost close to an agreement. So, again we will never know till the archives are open 25 years down the line what things really are but both these possibilities are open and depending on what you want to believe well these are the two positions. Right Praveed and something can also be said about this first of a kind initiative that African leaders are taking in the form of the peace delegation. Do you think it stands a chance given that the counter offensive as its backdrop there is new fighting that is resumed what can we make of it? Well you know the chance of a peace initiative at the moment still doesn't appear bright. There is still the hope that the NATO powers as well as Ukraine seems to have that they might be able to achieve a breakthrough on the ground in their counter offensive and if they do then strategically things will improve for them. Now if they really did manage to make a breakthrough and cut off the land corridor between Crimea and Russia then yes they would certainly improve their strategic position considerably that on the what we are seeing right now is not on the cards. In fact what we are seeing is that Russia has managed to work out their tactics in a way that whatever Ukraine is using with advanced tanks, Bradley's, Abrams all of that is not really creating much of a damage to the Russian lines and it doesn't seem that in any of the places that Ukraine offensive has been able to reach even the first real defense that Russia has on the ground which are really something which are difficult or costly for the other side to cross what's called the dragon teeth, trenches, mobbed ware a lot of other paraphernalia and this generally are about 20 to 30 miles or kilometers behind the front line or whatever is the really the front line of separation at the moment. So looking at the picture again things can change it's not that Ukraine has put all its forces to achieve a breach but at the moment it doesn't look like there is any progress they have been able to make in a significant sense we're not talking of tens five kilometers you know getting inside Russia or Russian health territory that's those things happen which are really not significant strategically it doesn't seem that the they have really made any significant advances that we can see given this is there a chance for peace well it will not depend on Ukraine it really depends what NATO is going to decide and particularly the United States and we have to wait for the NATO summit I think is that that is taking place in July 11th or something like that. So when the NATO summit takes place in July at that time they'll have to take stops. Thank you once again for joining us today Pravee. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China sparked interest around the globe as the two powers attempted a move towards improving their tense relationship during his visit the first since 2018 Blinken met President Xi Jinping is Washington aiming to mend relations with Beijing while joining hands with Japan and allies or is there more to this attempted thought we ask Anish. Welcome back to the show Anish so this is being hailed as a very important visit from a US official to China and it comes at an important time because it is an attempt to thaw the tense relations which we have seen in recent months could you elaborate on the significance on this trip and how it's likely to shape the politics in the region and the politics between these two countries. Yeah so the the kind of agreements that they have come across or any kind of agreement on a future plan is yet to be clear but what we see is that both sides are showing that there has been positive candid talk that's what they that's what both the statements are actually saying and it shows that there is definitely and very likely some positive results coming out of this meeting. It is quite significant because this is the first time that a US state secretary is visiting China in a five-year snap and it comes at a time as you said when like tensions are quite high in the region. China has very clearly stated its position on Taiwan and it is non-negotiable the fact that they're stating it outright in this conversation with the Blinken shows that China is not ready to compromise on that matter whatever the US side's pressure will be but on the other hand the US has downplayed that part of the whole thing because obviously if you can't move forward from there if you're going to keep insisting on China sorry on Taiwan and like whatever your conception of Taiwan would be on the other hand to focus was definitely on what they say keeping communication lines of communication open which means that they want the trade to continue they want movement of people good services all of that to keep going they want academic collaboration to continue all of that cannot be like there is it clearly shows that despite what you've seen in recent months where the US has actually tried to force some of the some of its allies especially in Europe to try to decouple from China this is kind of like a U-turn in many ways because they're trying to backtrack on the fact that on their insistence on trying to decouple and you know bring down any kind of association with China by either trying to change chip production like that is one part of this or trying to move other kinds of you know supply lines away from China which is not happening because you cannot overlook a massive economic powerhouse that China has become right now and and not just an economic powerhouse a major production factory of the world at this point in time and so even all this attempts to you know bypass China is basically just creating more you know middlemen in the form of Southeast Asia or East Asia who are essentially you know using Chinese products and you know you know manufacturing them in a different way in their site so basically it just creates expands the volume that Chinese trade and diversifies its trading partners as well so you really just there is no you know workable solution where you can actually isolate China economically very much most of the world requires China just as much as China requires the rest of the world so this notion this talk about keeping lines of communications open clearly indicates that the US is not really that serious about trying to isolate China at this point in time or probably it understands the fact that it cannot do that and obviously it's not pursuing it and actually wants to keep you know healthy relations open so in many ways like what we've seen from statements and at least at the Chinese side you've seen they're actually insisting that there be stable and predictable relations and the insistence of predictable is like we have to emphasize that fact as well considering how unpredictable US foreign policy has been over the past several years obviously US keeps talking about the rule of law and you know trying to maintain everything within the status but definitely they have insisted on maintaining status quo on several aspects of continued flow of trade culture and you know scientific and research collaborations that is happening between the two countries so there are definitely those aspects of it nevertheless you see like western commentators being very hawkish at the moment but obviously that is not what necessarily guides US foreign policy all the time and at this point in time you're seeing some positive development if this is going to have reciprocal visit from Chinese side maybe Xinjiang visiting the US in some future we do not know we also do not know if there are any kind of framework frameworks or common framework or agreement that they are trying to work around at this point we just know that like negotiations are back on track thanks for that Anish we'll be back with you soon for another update from the region for over a month India's northeast state of Manipur has witnessed ethnic violence that has killed at least a hundred people and over 4,000 cases of arson since May 2023 there have been many instances of mob violence and hate speech opposition parties have criticized the BJP which is in power both in the center and the state for not doing enough to deal with the issue Siddhant Ani who is in Manipur as we speak gave a ground report Siddhant thank you for joining us despite poor internet connectivity can you give us a recap of what all has happened in the past one month and what are the latest updates so i don't know if you can tell from the backdrop but we are currently in infall the capital of the state of Manipur where violence broke out on the 3rd of May it has continued ever since the the conflict is at this point between two communities the methe community which is the dominant community approximately 53 percent of the population of the state of Manipur and the other side the Kuki which are a tribe connected to the Amizo Kuki Chin group they're approximately 10 percent of the state's population what we have found in the course of reporting from here or at least trying to sort of ascertain certain facts from the time that we've been here about two weeks is that police sources have confirmed to us over 130 people have officially been killed of course senior sources in the police who asked not to be named have also said that these figures should be looked at with some amount of caution because the extent of the damage and you know the extent of the reporting also of people who are either missing or dead cannot be fully determined at this point because tens of thousands of people have also been displaced as of the latest figures that we had close to 40 000 people internally displaced people most of whom belong to the Kuki community are still living in makeshift relief camps that have been set up in schools colleges and other such areas wherever a century place could be found most of these are also being run by volunteers local politicians and on donations from their respective communities on the social front there's been a complete or there is a complete divide at this point both the methi and the Kuki are physically separated now the Imphal valley which is sort of center circle in the broader geography of the state of Manipur which is a hill state in India in India's northeast they occupy predominantly at this point the peripheries of the valley the Kuki have been pushed up from the foothills to the higher hills of Manipur and are currently many of them are still sort of hiding out in the jungle the the the conflict is also apologized for for the sort of breaks in this conversation but the conflict also has taken on all kinds of different political dynamics and essentially the unfortunate reality of it is that both sides are at to this point not being able to engage in any sort of constructive dialogue at the center of all of this is Chief Minister N. Birrain Singh who of course belongs to the Bhakti Janta party the same party that is in power in the state with an overwhelming majority as far as the legislative assembly here is concerned and also in the center of course when the Modi is the prime minister and is heading to the United States for a state visit the prime minister has been completely silent so far on the situation in Manipur what is I think extremely shocking is that unlike any sort of ethnic or inter-community conflict we have really seen or that comes to mind here in India at least the entire state is embroiled involved and sort of has been taken over by by what is going on there is still an atmosphere of complete fear so you know you see at night women of every locality out on the streets patrolling to try and ensure that their neighborhoods their homes are not threatened in any way but a lot of it is this is not because the violence is breaking out so frequently it's more because of the sort of narrative of fear that has been created on either side unfortunately by the leadership and the leadership's on both sides leadership's inability to sort of actually sit down and talk even when the union home minister visited Amit Shah visited he went and met both sides but he met them separately instead of bringing everyone to a common table to sort of maybe try and initiate dialogue so I think by and large whether you talk to cookie people or you talk to met the people the sense of frustration is massive there is a sort of the anger against the political elite which is very well entrenched and well established here in Manipur and that anger is finding its way out now because mobs have sort of been allowed one way or the other to run amok to sort of with impunity and to destroy homes including the homes of elected officials government properties cars etc etc just a few days ago in fact the minister of state in the central government that is a junior minister for foreign affairs RK Ranjan Singh his personal home was set completely on fire and destroyed by again a faceless mob the interesting part of that story is that in response to it the local police made 17 arrests the figures that we have so far is that there have been over four and a half thousand instances of arson that have taken place since the third of May after as a result of all of these killings all of the arson that has taken place only a total of 39 arrests were made prior to the burning down of the home of the minister but since then we see a slight change in the attitude of the central police forces such as a rapid action force which is essentially a riot controlled police that that has been deployed here in quite large numbers I think the orders to them have been changed unofficially sources have indicated that to us they are now taking more proactive steps to to control these mobs and make sure that not too much more damage is done but the fact of the matter is that at least in infall which is the largest city by far in the state of Manipur now lines have been drawn along these tribal or ethnic lines cookie have been completely driven out of the city and similarly maithi populations who live in different parts in different population centers such as turhachanpur in the hills which is considered a part of the hills they have also moved out fearing for their own safety people are hoping to of course go back home to resettle rebuild and to continue living with the communities that they've sort of been born in and lived together with for so many years but for that to happen there needs to be some political action first some political conversations need to be had first and assurances of safety need to be given and at this point trust levels are at an all-time low in the NB government and and also the state as well as the central forces that have been deployed siddhants so the internet ban has been going on for as long as the violence started can you tell us a little bit about what has been the economic impact been on those communities that are marginalized that have been shifted up the hills that are already inhabiting these spaces I mean beyond the infall valley so of course as you can see from perhaps scenes in the background in infall and other districts curfew has been relaxed to an extent now so things are allowed to open and function till about 5 p.m so for about 12 hours in the day from 5 a.m to 5 p.m people are allowed to go about their business so shops etc opening and trying to find at least some kind of business people and today's it's a Monday afternoon and so people are obviously out in large numbers trying to get various kinds of things done it's extremely difficult we are in the 21st century and there's been a massive push like there has been in the rest of the country towards digitization so a lot of things were happening on the internet the internet has been completely shut down barring certain official sort of home ministry allowed places where the internet is still functioning but that means by and large most of the population does not have access to the internet at all businesses have been shut down businesses that are run by other communities not either methe nor kuki have also been shut down because of fear the atmosphere of sort of really fear that that pervades everything and not knowing essentially what happens next so not just our people being hit quite hard by the economic factors that this violence has resulted in but also they while they are in their homes they also there's anxiety there's restlessness and and there's uncertainty because really no solution or no change seems to be inside unfortunately students are suffering it is time for exams at a national level so things are of course much get much much harder as you move further outside this inner circle of infall as it is the people living on the periphery are largely agrarian agriculturists so for them to even so the paddy crop for example this is the planting season that will suffer really hard which will have we will see the consequences of which perhaps next year when it's time to sort of sell that paddy crop in the market but the impact can't be sort of restricted to any one sector or any one kind of people except for perhaps the the same political elite many of whom have of course even left the state and are going about their business in places like delhi bombay bangalore gohati etc but the poorest have of course as in in any conflict they have been involved the most directly because it's their homes that are being attacked the most they've been burned down the most and of course they continue to live very close to each other and and the conflict also continues largely between those areas so those who are dependent on daily labor to earn a living and a livelihood have been hit the hardest and are finding it extremely difficult and that's why many of them also continue to remain in these relief camps because they really have no option about where else to go and that's all we have for today for most stories keep watching peoplesdispatch.org you can also follow us on facebook, twitter, instagram and youtube