 Welcome back. It's still the breakfast and plus TV Africa set for a first major conversation this morning Of course, you know Nigerians are heading to the polls this Saturday. Yes It will be a fiercely contested presidential vote. This is the most keenly contested in the history of the country Analysts have said that it is too close to call now It will be the largest of aquatic exercise on the continent because Nigeria of course as Africa's Most populous nation will be picking a new president the crucial election comes as the country battles a mirrored of economic and security problems that range from fuel and cash shortages to Rising terror attacks high inflation and a plummeting, you know, locally currency a local currency the Naira Question remains how ready is Africa's biggest country for this exercise joining us to Discuss the issue surrounding the forthcoming election is Shegwin shopping Tom who is a political analyst. Good morning to you. Shegwin. Thank you very much for your time Looking at all the the factors, you know, and all the indices as far as you concerned is Nigeria ready for the elections On the face of it, you know, and if you listen to the various stakeholders, you You could say that we're ready Listening to I-nec talk, you know, I-nec has been very cutting About the assurances that they're ready for the elections yesterday the one of the public relations officials of I-nec had Said that government of Nonsensitive as we've commenced today, you know, so I mean once if the machinery will logistic Machinery of I-nec has been, you know kicked into into into operations as I will speak now So I-nec says they're ready the security services will be mobilizing Including the military obviously because of the History of Nigerian elections and the tendency for violence, you know, it's been it's become necessary in recent elections to involve the military It's not really desirable, but in the entire reality the military has started mobilizing. I'm aware of that The police are also making their usual arrangements to be ready for the elections the politicians the political parties are rounding up their campaigns So, of course, you know Nigerian electorates are also very obviously energetic EGAN ready to go So the only thing that one might want to Express is with regards to the currency redefine policy of the central bank and the chaos And the confusion that we are currently witnessing in the country which regards to that No cash anywhere comparing Small value transactions and knowing fully where Nigeria runs a very significant informal economy Knowing fully well that that informal economy will have an impact in some way on the elections You know, so even I-nec has said the lack of availability of cash could affect them But I want to believe that them being a Government agency would have to find a way to gain access to the cash that they may need to run the election So aside from the cash problem, you know, perhaps I would say that all you know Nigeria appears to be ready and we can only just wait for the last few days. It's two days to the election. So We're good to go as far as one can see All right Let's let's go to that cash crunch as some have called it You've talked about I-nec and the necessity of cash of I-nec to effectively carry out its responsibility of organizing the polls So let's talk about how this this this cash crunch will affect The general elections cost to look at I-nec. We look at the political parties look at the candidates We told that they are allowed by law. I think it was a dog over who said at Asurok that he needs 70 million To prosecute the election in hard copy. He said so they also affected then the people and How do you think this cash crunch will affect the elections? Some Nigerians have been supporting it because they say to limit vote buying some politicians have said they Can't pay that's nothing affects them. They are ready for the election. They have the money They need to prosecute elections and all that so let's look at all all the factors all the the players How would the cash crunch affect the elections? I-nec today they've said on the front pages of the papers that they have access to cash through the CBN government is going to give them cash and that the various state's resident electoral commissioners will be collecting cash new Naira notes hard currency or hard copy rather from the state's CBN Offices, so how do you think this will affect the elections? well I-nec, you know, like like I said, and you've confirmed I-nec should have access to cash if they need it But I think we should also use this opportunity to perhaps encourage I-nec to embrace technology, you know, I You just have to wonder why they need cash The only thing that one can think of is perhaps The payments that they will need to make to their logistic partners bearing in mind that the partnerships that they have with private transport transport, let's say boss owners, transport owners They're not they're not aggregated on that one umbrella So they're dealing with you know individual boss owners, boss drivers and all of that. It's it's very inefficient And I think that I-nec really really needs to look into this And embrace technology, find a way to use technology to aggregate this services and administer every aspect of that check including payments Such that they do not have to rely on cash because once you take that out You know, what else would I-nec need cash for, you know, payments of their ad hoc staff, maybe Again, why would they need cash to do this? Why would they not insist that people provide accounts so they can do transfers, you know And you know, you can go across their entire logistic operations and look at the different components and wonder why they would need cash to prosecute any one of those things But they say they do need cash and fortunately The CBN would be providing cash for them. For the politicians Some of them would like us to think that the cash crunch or the cash Cacity is not going to affect them, but their actions tell us otherwise. The fact that As many as 10 of them have gone to the Supreme Court to compel to force the CBN to continue to Recognize the old Naira notes as legal tender already says enough It means that they have those old Naira notes that they want to spend during the elections and for the purpose of the elections Maybe not only for both fine. Maybe also for payment of their party agents and what have you, you know, and again One would wonder why do you need cash? You know, why can't you do transfers to your party agents, you know pulling unit agents and any other official that you need to make payments to during the elections And if it's for both buying use transfers to to buy the votes so that the police can track you so the police can track you down effective, you know, so Aside from INEC and the politicians then there is the ordinary in Nigeria and Fortunately, there won't be any movement on that day. So the only thing that you can think of that how This might affect The electorate is then preparing themselves for the election day Saturday Of course when you are going to the polling unit, you're going to spend the entire day there You need to go and yourself with water with food and with some basic provisions Maybe some medicine for people that are managing health issues and lifestyle issues You know, so for some people they may need cash to prepare themselves and you know The non-availability of cash may affect them to some degree, but fortunately we still got a few days to go So if they plan that they should be able to find a way around it So the cash situation will have some impact on on on elections and operation for the election But it shouldn't be such that it would be disruptive in nature It would be more of an inconvenience to people rather than a complete an entire destruction of the process Very interesting indeed them Do you expect vote buying to be as arrive as it's been in recent elections because of this cash crunch of the INEC policy and the CBN policy I Am pretty certain that they will see a reduction. I'm pretty sure of it The and the evidence again is there for us to see the fact that The politicians, you know, in fact the all-progressive Congress Who is the party that? Formed the court government has taken themselves to put, you know, it's the all-progressive Congress Governors and the party has taken the all-progressive Congress government to court over this cash policy That is enough to tell us that it's going to affect cash, you know, they both buying I think we need to realize recognize that usually politicians, you know, they are very very Methodical when it comes to elections, they start planning for the next election Right after the completion of the last one So this this a lot of our politicians and I am talking about government officials. I'm not talking of party officials governors Members of the House of Reps members of the heart, you know, the various houses elected officials have been stockpiling cash Towards elections and the cash that they've stockpiled Old notes and that is the only reason I make both to say this and you know It's very important for Nigerians to understand this the only reason that we're seeing this level of Opposition and resistance from political actors towards this currency the design policy is because they know that it Wipe out this cash or cash. It makes it on, you know, non legal tender You know, so it definitely will affect them. So we should see a reduction now Let's not forget that also one of the reasons that there's the scarcity of the new notes Is that the new notes that are being released that have been released by the central bank through the commercial bands I've been intercepted by politicians and that's what's created this custody That's why you don't have the new notes in ATM machines So because of that, we will still see both buying will still see politicians, you know handing out the new notes, but it will not be enough to Prosecute their agenda Adequately, you know, and I think that's why I feel that the incidence of both buying will be reduced to a I think we can say to a significant degree for this elections Quite interesting times to leave it. Let's look at the Security aspect of everything which is quite of interest to you for the conversation of the air And how do you think the security situation in the country will play out? It's been a bit quiet on the northern side in recent weeks Security forces have made some You know some advancement some progress In fight against terrorism, but it's been still quite volatile in the southeast And of course the conflicting, you know orders of sit at home and all that coming from IPUB and other groups How do you think the security situation will affect, you know the turnout of people on saturday voters on saturday? Yes, the security situation is it presents a bit of the conundrum for Nigeria as a country and for these elections for the reasons that you've identified I think the first thing we need to perhaps Recognize is that the preparedness of our security forces Ranging from the police to the civil defense corps to the military Even even paramilitary services like the road safety will be deployed very heavily during the elections The TSS would also be very much active So we we are adequately I would say Significant enough adequately Results as far as personnel is concerned for these elections Another point to note Just like you've kind of alluded to and you have to wonder why There's been so much quiet Up north with regards to banditry and kidnapping in the last three months We really need to wonder we really need to ask ourselves, you know, what has been happening Of course kidnappings are still happening But it's nowhere near on the scale that we witnessed in the last if you if you just Cast your mind back a year for example, or maybe even eight nine months ago, you know Things didn't look so good But all of a sudden there's peace and quiet You don't get to many reports of kidnapping cases and banditry Even herdsmen and the farmers clashes so-called and have reduced and this is a constant Tendency in our various election cycles So there's that on the one corner, but it's a good thing at least for now You know people in those communities that are normally affected by these things can go out and they can vote Knowing that for now they're secure in the in the southeast It's very very unfortunate what's happening there and I say this because there's quite obviously a possibility that Some people will be discouraged from going out for fear or for their safety and for their lives But the military has also been very emphatic and very categorical In saying that they are going to be on ground and they're going to make sure that everybody is safe And the people should come out without fear to exercise their franchise Unfortunately, I would say that leaders in the southeast perhaps have Have handled the security situation with kids gloves in the in in in recent years and had not spoken out very clearly to deal with those Elements that have been creating this this security Problems in that area and now it's coming out to bite them now one of their own sons Is a major contender for the first time in the history of Nigeria? We have or actually since the first Republic we have a person from that axis Being a major contender with a real chance to win his base and the source of his victory Ordinarily ought to be the southeast and the south south and if you then have a station where people in the southeast are unable to Vote freely then you wonder how that is going to affect his chances. You know, so but fortunately for them If I may say, you know, the military has said that they're going to do what all they can To to ensure that people can come out to vote and one can only vote that That happens so that Nigeria can enjoy an election that produces the Winner that clearly is the wheel of the majority of Nigerians Interesting apart from the the effect on voters. I like itself has been a victim of attacks, you know Unknown person so what he's that word and you know, we've seen a neck offices in different parts of the country being Burnt we've seen that I make offices been attacked, you know, PVC scattered away or the offices destroyed Do you think I make me find it difficult to send their personnel at the end of the day when push comes to show On that day to some part of the country where they've experienced attacks on Their personal we know what they are saying. They're ready for the election You know, even though an ionic official said last time that it might be an issue, but they're saying they're ready Officially, but if we want to look at these attacks on some ionic offices in parts of the country, shouldn't this be a Course of concern shouldn't wouldn't this lead to I next say know what at the last minute We're going to hold on from sending our staff to these areas well, I make has Done their own internal review of the various polling units across the country wanted and some six thousand plus of them And they've come out to say out of that one and seven six thousand as a result of potential security concerns 240 of those polling units will not have voters and there will be no voting in those places So that would suggest that they have looked at this and we you recall that a Predominant number out of that 240 falls within the South East region So they've looked at the hottest hot spots In terms of security and they've decided that those places they can't risk Putting their personnel in those places and therefore elections with alcohol there outside of those ones I think elections will go ahead. I think that what you will see I expect that what you will see is that the I-neck will work more closely in those places that are high risk places with the military in particular and maybe with the police as well to Compensate what the potential risk of attacks by ensuring that there's adequate presence of well resource and well-equipped Security forces to ensure that people are safe when when they go out those places So I don't think that we're going to see a station where I-neck would not show up in certain places You know, let's not forget that look the Nigerian state is a very very strong and well-resourced entity and when the force the power the might of the Nigerian state is deployed Against a certain or towards a certain cause. It's very difficult to resist them So, you know, I think that the people that are saying the thing that are saying in the East will be very very well advised to To watch their backs cause I'm pretty certain that The Nigerian security forces will do what needs to be done to ensure that people are safe I don't know. I don't think there's much more than one can say beyond that Aside from that, I would like to perhaps just use maybe this opportunity to admonish leaders the leadership the opinion Leaders in the southeast to be more categorical and clear in their opposition to the activities of iPod of ESN and all other such separatist tendencies in those places You know, this what is happening now for the elections should be a lesson for them In the future, they should speak out, you know, this thing called unknown government is such a strange thing for me when when we had Marauders Attacking people and kidnapped people from forests. We were very United as a country in calling them Fulani Kila Fulani Headsman. We even put a tribe to the name all of a sudden you have people Attacking people in the southeast with same videos. You can see that they're speaking evil And then you still say that unknown government. What does that mean? If you don't name it thing adequately and name a problem properly then how do you solve it? You know, so it's why ironic that this is not becoming a problem for them I think that should be a lesson but all you know, I'm pretty certain that an election will hold in those places properly All right. Look at one aspect of this security situation in them in Adrien elections that we normally would see is the redeployment of a, you know, police Chiefs and CPs and one of the ones I think We can talk about is is in River State where We hear that the IGP has redeployed some of the police officers there, especially The CPs also as well in other parts of the state What are your thoughts on this situation the fact that from time to time we see that Police ships are redeployed is does this have any effect on on the outcome of the election? Why are they redeployed? For instance in the papers today We hear ahead of the general election the AIG of police as AIG in charge of zone 13 Oka Anambra State Butiaro has been drafted to River State Also deployed to River State. This apart from the AIG zone 13 Also deployed to River State for election duties are four commissions of police who are to be supervised by Yaro Then the incumbent CP Okone Fiong was redeployed to Enugu State This is what we hear and this is the same Okone Fiong that some opposition parties in River State including the APC and STP had said there was In bed with the state governor, you know as far as attacks on those Opposition parties were concerned them. So why do we see these in a movement and you know Rearrangement realignment redeployment of a scary operators. I mean River State. This is quite a huge You know and a whole AIG is going to the state and they're sending apart from the AIG Four CP's to work under him for just River State and they send the CP there out, you know, coffee. It's It's an indictment. I think the police must Admit they must erase their hands. You must hands up and say that something is not working in the system if You have to every single election cycle whether it's the general elections or an off-cycle election You always find that the police finds it necessary to rearrange and redeploy and move people And reassign people all over the place and that only says one thing that the police command itself is worried about the Independence and non-partisanship of its officials. It means that they are alluding that this high-ranking officials may have formed alliances with political actors in those locations and They feel the need perhaps based on petitions perhaps based on reports from the field perhaps even based in some instances or requests from the political leadership in those places that Those high-ranking officials have been compromised by some political actor from whichever side of the divide You know that compromise might be coming and this obviously should not be the case the police We recognize that the human beings and have their political preferences, but by training they are supposed to be Friend to all and for to none except lawbreakers A situation where you have to redeploy your officers high-ranking officials for that matter Suggests that you have no confidence in their independence and in their non-partisanship and again, you know that also speaks to you know the Reality confronting of that the current structure of the police in Nigeria of policing in Nigeria Needs to be taking a very comprehensive Miss needs to needs to go on that very comprehensive with you as it stands now With station where you have people from all that locations in the country policing In places where they're strangers, perhaps it's something that we really need to we really need to look into because if this police of officials Locals if they live in the community and they have their brothers and their sisters in the community, you know, they will be Better behaved. They will know that there will be consequences including Damian and shameful consequences. Yeah Yes, sorry to interject because I've been prompted that we will have to go There's a lot to talk about as far as elections are concerned But that's a quick one election electoral violence election related violence is a big problem You know as far as elections in this country are concerned and most times it's The accusing finger is pointed at politicians and the thugs that work for them, you know The Nigerian society situation room after the 2019 election released a report saying an estimated 626 persons Were killed across Nigeria and the six months between the start of election campaigns And the commencement of the general and also supplementary elections 626 that's a lot, you know So, uh, do you think 2020 23 will be different as far as election Values or election relation rated violence is concerned in especially with the use of thugs by politicians It will be different and the reason I say that is because technology has been deployed to a greater degree by any And the politicians understand the implication of each one of those technological elements So by the time you combine the beavers with ira with electronic transmission of results You find that the situation is such that it's almost getting to quite pointless to do those things anywhere that you go and For means trouble or great violence There's every chance that you will also suffer for it because there's a tendency and a potential First that those things you've done can be proven in court But also that in it now by virtue of electoral act 2022 has the power to cancel elections in those places in fact, it doesn't even have to get to the national office of in it the Returning officer for for each of those locations can cancel elections for example where there's overvoting and overvoting is very easy to prove now you know, so I think we'll see Much less incidences or in fact we have seen you know because like you said look the election is just two days away in previous elections Long before the election day itself, you would have been seen violence and we've seen some no doubt There's been attacks from different camps on different camps, but it's nowhere as bad as all we've had in the past And I think it will be better with these elections Certainly, all right. There's a lot to talk about as far as elections are concerned Before you go, what's your prediction? Are you seeing? Maybe a run-off election a second round of voting a stalemate? Or you think it'd just be you know First time lucky in one shot and everybody the winner emerges and who do you think will win? I suspect that we're going to have a very shocking vote and I suspect that we will not have a run-off I think that all the In the calculations and the projections have been suggesting that there might be a run-off because for the first time We have three very strong contenders But I think based on the various factors if you look at the various factors playing out I suspect that we'll have a shocking result and there will be no run-off All right, you've said it I think like Paula did for us and you're speaking in parables Let's see. Let's see how that plays out. Thank you very much for your time Thanks for having me All right, we'll talk some more about the elections as we said Plus cbf guys your television station of choice For round the clock up to the minute coverage of nigeria selections on saturday when we return we'll look at the nigerian Oil industry of course with production said to be increasing the nnpc limited has said They're doing everything possible to end oil theft how possible is that we'll discuss it when we return