 Back folks take a look at crude crude right now pulling back about two dollars and forty cents quite a run we've had though you back it up just to August folks we're trading at sixty sixty one what is the low there sixty one seventy four up to eighty five bucks backing off a bit we're going to talk a little crude we're going to talk a little forex let's jump over to our man teddy keg stat we talked to teddy every Wednesday at forty past the hour you can reach teddy every trading day folks at his website forex dash trading dash unlock dot com teddy keg stack good morning. Good morning Tommy. So we got a lot on the agenda today teddy of course we just got the private payrolls this morning pretty decent number we all know it's fed day. Expectations pretty solid in terms of what's going to be happening with a little tapering going on in terms of the assets rates staying the same as the expectation we find out at two o'clock press conference at two thirty and we got a little bit of a pullback in crude this morning what are you looking at first in this market teddy in terms of whether you're talking about forex commodities and fed day. Well today it's fed day so always right now it's pretty much a sleepy day after this I'll be running some errands and stuff like that and then going by the FI Expo downtown because it's going to be a dead day. Now does that pick up you think after the Fed announcement or. I'm sorry we say yes absolutely I think we're just I think we're just waiting on one fifteen and then after this afternoon once the evening markets open up again. That we're going to have the currencies free flowing and we're going sideways right now I mean you got the US dollar yen is looking to still break out challenge resistance but it's kind of just sleepy creepy right now because of the fed day. I think with oil pulling back slightly a little bit today and bonds being kind of mixed it's a fed day it's going to be a choppy sideways day I'll be used a lot of caution but. Over all I'm still bullish the US dollar yen I'm looking for a breakout to the upside now and again I think one sixteen is really really viable by the end of the month. And one twenty two I think is on the table still for the US dollar yen by the end of December and the January you know but right now today it's a sleepy fed day you know I mean I would watch the oil numbers I think that the pullback right now is just a short term little little profit taking move I think that you got the oil numbers today and after that. Within the next couple days we'll see oil probably bucking up against resistance again and that's the thing that's going to help drive like I think the US dollar yen trade and stuff. But is as a whole the currencies if you're trading the forex markets today it's a sloppy trade I mean everything is kind of like the dollar index is if you're using that as a gauge is not a good gauge because that's showing dollar strength. But it's really mixed across the board you know you have a weaker euro US dollar right now you have a little bit of strength in the pound US dollar you have a little bit of indecision in the US dollar Swiss you know so. Unless you're working a position already I would say wait for a signal in most of these markets until we get the fed fed days over actually that's what we need to do. And let's just assume that Chairman Powell comes out and basically says what's expected and I'm sure he's going to have some words in terms of how he's bouncing the tapering versus no rate rises anytime in the future those are all the expectations. Are there any markets that you see potentially getting the most volatility out of Chairman's press conference this afternoon or how does that usually play out in the forex markets of what will be hit the most I know the dollar of course. But versus the other cross rates in that market. Well the way I see it is I agree with what you just said I think that there's going to be nothing new as far as what the Fed is going to do today as far as what they're going to say. Obviously the tapering and what have you is on the table. So after today though I think that the market's not going to like what the Fed is doing you know so because it's more of the same the fact that we can guess pretty much what the Fed is doing every meeting. It doesn't say a lot versus the Fed's influence on the markets and I think what you're going to see after today is like right now you see a little bit of a pullback in the 30 year in the 10 year little bit of strength but it's really in decision. And I think you're setting yourself up for a head fake especially as we come into the oil numbers the unemployment numbers claims tomorrow after the also unemployment on Friday. So I think between this afternoon and Friday morning you're going to see a head fake in the bonds in the 10 year and start to see them slam lows again and start trending lower. That I think will give a lift to the dollar which will help with the US dollar yen trade reinforce that as well as if oil unless there's a big sell off in oil. You know but I'm looking for a break in the interest rate market after this meeting higher rates and giving a lift to the dollar versus a lot of the currencies. So especially versus the euro right now that it's just it's really struggling right now I don't see very much any chance of seeing a real strength right now. Short term we got a sell signal on the hourly basis but even on a daily basis the trend is kind of your friend. I would use caution with the pound the pound US dollar even though it's hitting these lows it could bounce back like a balloon underwater. You know so but yeah I think really what we're going to see right now is that after today we'll see how the oil numbers and based mostly unemployment how that impacts things. And if the bonds don't like that and that really sells off I think it's going to be hard to beat the dollar bulls you know so I but I would use caution watching the dollar index for any currency cross as far as dollar strength. Look at the interest rate markets and the oil markets for clarity. I like that wrap up and I agree with a lot of it I do. Crude oil. So just jump into it and I referenced it briefly before talking to you man. And the the pullback today does look substantial. You're down 2.6% right now. I got light sweet crude at eighty one seventy two. But just for some context I have a chart up here Teddy on a daily basis just going back to August. And it's basically no pullback you know from sixty two dollars up to eighty five. Even if you're dealing with a three eight two retracement to be seventy six bucks a fifty percent will be seventy three. A lot of strength in that market of course you're going to get some negative days in there. And really that seems to be based off just a little bit of risk variables in there in terms of maybe something comes out. I was reading one thing this morning maybe the U.S. taps their reserves or something like that. But as we all know the market forces in that crude market man are much bigger than the U.S. Tapping their reserves to kind of quell what's going on across the board. It seems like Teddy you know I run into I was in publics the other day right they didn't have one thing I liked everybody. Whether it's the butcher in publics right to the cashier is talking about supply shortages man which is pretty remarkable. In terms of just what's going on in the economy and that we just can't keep up right now it seems like. Is that how are you feeling out just in your normal day life in Chicago. Absolutely what you said right there you know I've been watching. I'm a Costco customer OK nice. And over the past year I've noticed how you know they used to have a lot of everything. Now they have a lot of staples you know consumer staples like everything from toothpaste to things like that. When you start looking at the food actually there's a lot of things that they don't carry anymore that they used to. Or they're really starting to cut back on supply like I remember like for instance the salmon little cut little squares in these little packets. They sell at every Costco OK in that little one freezer thing it would be a huge end cap right now you have two little boxes if you're lucky and you're lucky if you can get those. And this is at multiple Costco stores because I depending on when I'm traveling in Chicago and I'll stop at one on the way home or whatever you know and this is not just reflective of one. This is multiple one so if that's any indication of what Costco is doing and they're a big buyer you know and I think that this is really starting to and no one can deny that their shortages out there that things are disappearing. And I think that besides the fact that the cost of things is going up people are starting to wonder like am I going to be able to still buy this product that I like six months from now let alone three months. I agree. I agree and that contributes to everything at Costco. Not for a very long time. They can't sell enough right now. Talk about just making 502 remarkable. Well Teddy we appreciate the conversation as always man we look forward to having you on next week and you have a great week man we'll talk to you next Wednesday. He's cutting out a little bit. Folks check out Teddy's Web set. Thanks Teddy man. Take care. I appreciate it.