 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing okay. Nothing to write home about during the regular session. I thought the market did a really, really good job. I thought they did an exceptional job. I think the back test continued from our breakout from three, four days ago, orderly reclaimed not only this back test, but also reclaimed the five day moving average on the close. The Dow held fairly, fairly well. A very uneventful day. And if you guys remember on last night's video, I wasn't sell bias. I even said in the video, I go, I'm not sell bias. There's just kind of more things at the bottom of the range. And just in case if we pull one more day, there'll be some opportunities. Well, there was some opportunities. Problem is I missed them all. I literally missed them all. And after the first literally 15 minutes of the day, it was over. The day was absolutely over. Everything was trading within a dollar range of each other. Nothing was going on. And that was actually a good thing. You know, if you're a bull, the last thing you wanted to see was the Q's give back, not only the five day moving average, but the give back also the 29675 level that we started the whole breakout in the first place. So everything was all good. You look at the spies, non event did exactly the same thing, just hugging the five day moving average. And as unless you're completely under a rock and you don't know what's going after the close, Walmart decided to put a little bit of a damper of what's going on or what happened in the last three, four days. And after the close, Walmart guides lower, they cut their forecasts. And as you can imagine, well, you know, we kind of knew the economy wasn't great to begin with. Unfortunately, the White House is telling us something something different. But in case you didn't know, well, the economy is not great. And so not only is Walmart getting absolutely destroyed after the close, it's taking down anything to do with retail. You got Coles getting absolutely squashed. That's cold. Excuse me. Well, it's closed down also. You got Target that's getting killed. You got Amazon again, they're not spending money. If they're not spending money in Target, right? In Walmart, they're sure as hell not spending any money on Amazon. And then you go through the whole retail list, you'll kind of see everything one by one Costco Etsy, this one, that one. But the most important part is when you look at the indexes after the close, spies are only down 70 cents, which is very, very odd. I thought, oh my God, that brings me down $3, $4 after the close. And the Nasdaq, which again, it definitely has some representation in retail. You got Shopify, you got Amazon. I don't remember Etsy's part of the Nasdaq 100, maybe it is. But the point is, you look at one eye open, you say, well, maybe these things are not that bad. And I think tomorrow could be kind of an important day. No matter what the market has established the last few days, and I think they did a pretty good job of reclaiming big levels, reality is kind of the curveball that could derail this whole train moving forward. And tomorrow we have kind of the start of a pretty big earnings week. You got Microsoft, that big put buyers all day. You got Google, some notable put buyers today all day. And you had NVIDIA, which is very, very odd. NVIDIA had Monster put buying 160 weekly puts coming in considering they don't report till August, very, very odd bets. Maybe they were, maybe there were people making covered, maybe they would try to cover some other semi-conductor exposure, but some very, very odd bets. So I think tomorrow is going to be an important level. Today's trading day, hell, I might as well have taken today off. I had a plan at the open, and we talked about it last night in the video. There was some names that I liked to the downside. The problem is I got the wrong ones. The ones that went down $3, $4 I missed. The ones that went down $0.30. So that was kind of my day. But the most important part I think going into tomorrow's session is, number one, we want to see if this indeed was indicative of, hey, this is reality versus the stock market's reality, then yes, the bulls have every opportunity to give up everything, right? Literally everything that they worked hard for the last three, four days. But there's a flipside to this as well. And we talk about this all the time. Sometimes news is just news, right? Sometimes it's interpreted bad. Sometimes it's interpreted good. We've seen a lot of bad news interpreted good. And you see the stock going the other direction. Here is going to be a challenge, right? And the question is now that it's not like, you know, a stock like a snow, you know, is worn in guidance. Okay, most people don't know what snow is. This is Walmart, right? You know, all of us have been to a Walmart or Target. Some of us go to Target for freaking cleaning supplies with their wife and somehow spend two and a half, three hours there. But that's a different story. Also, allegedly. Love you, sweetie. But the point is, if middle America, well, not middle America, Americans are not spending money. And this is a global nationals and people around the world is not slowing money. Then you have to understand, well, again, this is the reality, something has to give here. And, you know, these are going to be the key levels going into tomorrow, no matter what you think is going to happen today, going into tomorrow's session. Again, face value in the market means absolutely nothing. All right, remember, keep in mind, we had a global pandemic, right? And the market went to all-time highs. Now they introduced monkeypox. Apparently, monkeypox is the next thing, right? Don't make out with strangers, right? Delete your Tinder account. I don't know. I don't know how this damn thing is spread. But the point is, look, we have a completely different society right now. We have a completely different market than it was 20, 30 years ago. The point is, face value sometimes is good, sometimes is bad, and it all depends how they perceive it. So kind of going into tomorrow, I mean, look, there's definitely names I like to the downside. That's for sure, right? You know, Google reports tomorrow, you know, it really couldn't rally today. I'm still watching the bottom of the channel here. As we talked about last night, this whole level here, I'm still watching. Who knows, maybe they sell this thing off ahead of earnings. I'm still watching the video for tomorrow. Again, that, you know, for some reason, they're just going to be bombing, bombing those 160 puts today. It's just weird, considering it's 10 points out of the money and they don't have a catalyst this week. Again, all these odd bets are, well, hell, they're odd. They bring to your attention just like the way the guy, some guy bet what the 130 puts into the clothes on Walmart today, right? On Walmart, a million dollars worth of premium. Nobody knows anything, right? Nobody knows anything. Nobody's afraid to go to jail. This is pure coincidence and people are phenomenal guessers. So again, based on what we saw today on the option flow in the video, again, it's our duty at least to watch it. Tesla, I thought, did very, very well today. Tesla was one of those names today that even when the market pulled in, and yeah, granted, it was down $11, but the stock is up $97 in the last three days. Okay, you got a nice little pullback here. I think in a perfect world on Tesla, and we saw some pretty good call-buying towards the end of the week. We saw some 840s. We saw some 850s. We saw a little bit of 800s. So I would like to see Tesla at some point tomorrow, the next day, but some point in the next couple of days, retest this five-day moving average. This is kind of where the whole breakout came out. And if you look at the volume, and this is kind of the key here. People always say, well, went down a lighter volume. Yeah, this is one of those cases. If you look at the volume from three days ago, look how big the volume was. Look what happened, and look what happened the next day. Smaller volume today is the smallest volume of all, so you kind of turn around and go home. The sellers are feeling comfortable, and that's exactly what the bulls need to do. The bulls need to make sure that the sellers are comfortable, so if they get down to the five-day moving average, they can get trapped. And they defend the five-day moving average. Then Tesla wakes up, and you're going to see an expansion channel. But again, we're not a barrier. We're just preparing for it. So it's very, very tough to turn around and make a definitive statement any single day. Like I've always said in every single broadcast, nobody knows what the market's going to do. The only thing we could do is prepare for it. Today, an incredibly slow day. I guess if I were to quote the right names at the open, maybe it would have been a slow day for me. But the point is, I kind of missed my window. I know some of you guys caught some stuff. I missed it. Anything that went down $3, $4, I missed. But I was chilling with all those stocks that went down like $0.30, $0.40 that I wound up breaking even on. Dope! And that's why we play the game. So let's talk about today's session. Again, this is kind of what we talked about over the weekend. We talked about this pre-market. Friday, well-deserved risk by the bulls. Successfully tested the five-day support. The result are tight-channels. So we talked about a very, very tight channel. Say we expected a very, very tight day. Not it's over after 10 o'clock, but relatively tight day. 300 support. That's where the bulls held and reclaimed at the close. Any close below is a problem. So the bulls need to defend that level, and they did. And here's kind of the notes going into the day. Expect a tight day on both ways. Again, trade quarter-third size for cash flow. You're not going to make or break the day. It's just kind of more of where we are, the kind of what we expect. And the day kind of played out exactly that way, for the exception of how I could have turned off my machine at 10 o'clock. So let's talk about it. So Google reports tomorrow, you know, 106.50, 106. I'm still watching that level in case they come forward tomorrow. And the video. I'm missing the video. Don't ask me what I was doing, but I'm missing the video. And this is perfect, right? And the video. Scalp set up 171 if it builds below. You can see 169 and then 170, 70, 70s. What the hell was I doing today? Where the hell was I? So it takes out the 171, takes out the 69 and trades right to the bottom of the band at 166 and change. I don't know what the hell I was doing, but I wasn't in the video. If all you guys have got it, congratulations. And then snow. Again, don't ask me what the hell I was doing, but I literally missed everything that went down $34. And I was in everything that was down 30, 30, 40 cents. Don't ask me why, but it is snow. 141, 141, 141 if it builds below. Can see a two point move to the 50 day moving average. That's exactly what it did. Actually it went down a little bit more. Notable buyer came in just as a FYI. Notable buyer came in for the August 130 puts. And that is betting into earnings. So if you look at snow, again, don't ask me what I was doing. Here's the 140, 140, and it traded right to the 50 day moving average. Again, my head was somewhere knee deep in my own. Let's keep a PG. Cano never went coin. Again, what the hell was I doing today? I missed every damn stock that went down three, four points. Coin 69 if it builds below can flush. Here was coin. I literally missed, literally missed everything today. So here is the 69, it took out 69, traded down to 66. Yeah, I guess if I were to just quote one of these damn things, at least the day would have been fine. I missed literally everything. And then here's me fighting, right? Here's me fighting. So instead of all these, I short meta, right? 68 gets below, can snap. So I short meta, it goes down like 30, 40 cents, blah, blah, blah. The futures recover, break even on the trade. Okay, I suck. Okay, letter U. A short letter U goes down like 40 cents. I don't cover anything. I think the stock's going to go down to like 34 and a half. Don't cover any blah, blah, blah, break even, right? So dope. I'm having a great day here. Tesla, there was a couple of remounts. I quote one for a cup of coffee again. I just couldn't get anything really going today. And that's it. And I said, literally, this is four hours ago. Guys, think about this. It's five o'clock right now. So four hours ago was what? One o'clock after lunch. I said the day is just over. It's just absolutely over. And that's exactly what happened. So the fireworks, unfortunately, at least for the bulls, at least phase value came after the close. Retail is obviously the dominant area. So obviously going into tomorrow, yeah, I'm watching a bunch of retail names. You have to watch the names just in case they don't recover. So if Walmart just taking out opening range lows tomorrow, yeah, we got to start watching some retail names. Usually not a group that I would watch, but hell, if this is the deciding factor and Main Street meets Wall Street and everything's crappy and everybody has monkeypox and everybody's miserable. Well, again, nobody, you know, we don't want to put the cart in front of the horse, but we know the level, right? We know the big level. And we got to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, especially in the Nasik. Remember, the Walmart is spiced. Walmart is the doubt. You know, there could be an obvious disconnect. It's very, very possible from technology, from retail. The problem is some retail is our technology. Amazon, Shopify, Etsy, right? So we have a little bit of a curveball, but again, that's what this business is. There's days that are very, very clean. There's days that are very, very clear. Your research is telling you everything is premium. Everything is good to go. And then there's days like today, so you wake up and you go to your research and you're like, well, wait a minute. The channels are very, very tight. You know, let's trade. This is eight hours ago. You know, everything's tight. Trade quarter, third size. This is not the day you're going to make your bones. And unfortunately, that's the way the market played itself out. So tomorrow, I'm optimistic, right? I'm optimistic. Maybe we have one more day of rest, but just keep that level in mind, guys, especially in the Nasdaq 100. As long as we are closing above 296.75 on the queues, you got to give the bulls the benefit of that. As soon as we start closing below 296.75, that's the problem because that is the 50-day moving average that we reclaimed. And obviously, that would be a very, very big disappointment from all the bulls if we close below. But again, let's not put the cart in front of the horse. Let's see how everything plays out. So that's it, guys. Have a great night, everybody. Again, don't kiss no strangers. Monkey pox. Right? Discussing. Guys, have a great night. God bless. Hope everybody stays safe. And I'll see you all tomorrow.