 The fact that we also know we have such a tight range here from 320 to 311, the focal point going into this week, at least the start of the week, at least until one of those two levels gets confirmed, maybe stay away from Beta. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com. We can update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Spring, slowly, but surely, is coming into bloom. And if you are like me, especially if you've lived on the northeast of the United States, you know how horrible the winter we've had. 70 degrees yesterday, 70 degrees the day before. Today is 40. And oh, by the way, it's going to snow again next week. So Mother Nature is still not ready to get her nails out of our back. But anyway, hope everybody is doing well. Stock market, let's talk about that. So the Dow, the S&P, the Russell, all at all year highs, right? All time highs. Obviously, the big catalyst this week. A lot of the big cap names, a lot of the old world deal names, big, big run-ups, the $1.9 trillion bill finally got pushed through by the Democrats. It's going to help out a lot of people who were tragically affected by this whole pandemic. So hopefully, they'll get a little bit of breathing room. It's a very, very small amount of money. But the point is, anything will help and should help. And this really kind of fueled the fire of the markets. And the Dow and nuts, the Dow and absolutely nuts, huge, huge move over 4%. The S&P added 2.5%. And the problem is, it's the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq continues to be the very, very kind of like the redheaded stepchild, no offense to any redheaded stepchild children in the audience. But you got to look at the cues, right? You got to look at the cues. And this is where leadership or world time, old world, old school leadership is provided. The apples of the world, the Facebooks of the world, the Amazons and the Teslas and everything else in between. And this is an obvious, very, very painfully obvious area that is lagging the market. So we had three weeks, three and a half weeks of pretty aggressive selling. And again, if you've been watching this broadcast just in the last month, I've been sell buys. I've been sell buys. My primary focus has been the Nasdaq 100 names. That's kind of where the aggressive order flow, the option flow, the money flow, the institutional bias, the institutional darlings, the cult stocks, they all live. And they just haven't been performing for the last three weeks. And it's pretty obvious we've been talking about the aggressive disconnect they had, but they finally woke up this week, right? And, you know, look, you could say what you want, and you could call it what you want. Somebody will turn around and say, look, it was a very, very aggressive dead cat bounce from a pretty, pretty aggressive sell off. I mean, the cues literally went from February the 16th from 338. And they went to 297 in three weeks. I mean, this is a big aggressive sell off. And a lot of people who are long growth stocks throughout that time, you know, you really saw a really major haircut. Some stocks got hit for like 40%, 30%, 20%. So you saw a major, major decline. And what we saw in the last three weeks, and you're not going to really tell about the 3% scoreboard than the Nasdaq rally back 3%. It's more of the question of kind of what happens next. Now, before anybody starts with their theory, and again, if I'm in a room full of especially newer traders, I could convince them one way or another, which way the market's going to go next, but it's not the point of trying to convince somebody what's going to happen next. The point is gather the information, make an intelligent read of what you think is going to happen next based on technical analysis. So we had the three weeks sell off, right? We had the bounce off the 150 day moving average. And the most important part, especially again, if you've been watching this broadcast, you know how important this 320 level is on the QQQs. And if you saw what happened on Thursday, right on Thursday session, we got rejected perfectly right at supply at 320. And Friday we put in a lower high, lower low, but the good news is we did hold the rising five day moving average. Again, if you've been watching this broadcast have been trading with me for the last 11 years. In the webinar, you kind of know how important that five day moving average is. So the good news is, we held the five day moving average off the bounce, right? That's positive. That's the shortest term sentiment. However, we did get rejected off the 50 day moving average, which is me very, very key. And a lot of people are asking, well, Dan, when can I start swinging stocks again on technology? When can I start, you know, have a more exposure, more exposure having on the books? And the question to that is very simple. As soon as the QQs start reclaiming the 50 day moving average and start building, you hear, you know, you hear me use the word build a lot. You know, the word build is basically a level gets taken out. And now price action needs to be taking place above that level, the longer it builds above that level, right? The word build, the longer it builds above that level, the higher probability that it's going to advance to the next supply zone. And if you do believe in that, well, look, here's the area of concentration here. It took out the 320 level. And now it needs to start making its way back into the 330. So the line is pretty much drawn in the same. Again, I don't think we need to guess going into this week, 320 to the upside, right? Very, very, this is not a subjective number. This is not a number you should be having a wild argument with some random person on social media. This is the number. This is where we got rejected. So we need to reclaim 320 on the Qs. And then we'll start making our way to 324 where it got rejected one, two, three, four times, right? 324. And ultimately, if that gets confirmed, we go back into the 330 level. And then obviously, any confirmation or any build or any reclaim, whatever word you want to use above 330 gets us back to all time highs. And then the NASDAQ starts playing catch up with very impressive moves, again, in the Dow Jones industrial average in the spies and even the Russell, right? Even the Russell has been doing incredibly well. For some reason, my chart's not updating. Okay, there you go. Even the Russell has been doing incredibly well. But again, the big lag is the NASDAQ and kind of going back to the flip side of what you need to know going into this week. So if we're stuck in this little channel here and understand one thing, the prime focus, at least on Monday, until we get a very, very clean view of which way the NASDAQ 100 is going to flow next, we understand our levels, right? 320 to the upside and 311 to the downside. We close above 320. That's green. We close below 311. There's a very, very good high probability that we're going to start retesting the lows. And that before somebody turns around saying, there's no way we could retest the lows. Why? This has been the lagging group for a very, very long time as everything else is taking all-time highs. So it's a very, very important number. The fact that we also know, because remember, it's all about collecting data. The fact that we also know we have such a tight range here from 320 to 311, the focal point going into this week, at least the start of the week, at least until one of those two levels gets confirmed, maybe stay away from beta. Maybe stay away from it. Because again, if the Q is going to trade in a very, very tight channel, that means the individual stocks more than chances of not going to be trading in individual channels as well. So if you look at the individual stocks, you'll see what I'm talking about. Look at Netflix. Not here, not there. Stuck in a channel. Look at Apple. Not here, not there. Stuck in a channel. Facebook that actually showed some strength came right back into the channel as well. Look at Amazon. Everything's stuck. You can see here. And Amazon is so below. Like Amazon is going to, they really need to split their stock. I mean, look at the channel. Look how many trees in the forest they're going to have to go through just for the stock to go higher again. It's pretty amazing stuff. Alibaba got hit on some China news. This stock is completely dead in the water. The video, it's been a really good trader. It really, really has been. Again, it's stuck underneath supply. So the NASDAQ really needs a lot of work to do. And my focus, and the funny thing is it actually started on Friday session. My focus on Friday was away from beta. If you look at it, and we'll talk about the pivots in a second, there was not one stock that I put on the Twitter feed, right? The private Twitter feed that had anything to do with data. Just because the IWM is so strong, and it's such a big, aggressive presence in the small, smaller priced speculation names, it's actually giving us a lot more flexibility to trade names that have nothing to do with the NASDAQ 100. Again, as much as I love trading beta, and that's kind of my prime focus, and it has been for the last, let's say, eight and a half, almost nine years out of my 21 years of trading. Listen, I'm not going to sit there on Monday watching good value go to waste because Netflix is stuck in a channel, or Alibaba doesn't want to do anything. I'm going to go with the money flow though. The key is, especially if you are a trader and you have a very specific group that you trade, whether you trade Bitcoin, again, this kind of really does represent how strong speculation money flow is. It's almost like a mirror image of what's going on with the Russell. Bitcoin is 60,000 this morning. Saturday morning, it's around 1130. It really does demonstrate that there is no fear in this tape, even though that the NASDAQ went down three weeks in a row prior to this past week, there was no fear, right? At least there was no fear in the trading aspect of things. The Bitcoin stocks have been reflecting the strength from Bitcoin. You see all these NFT stocks going crazy. Bitcoin stocks going crazy. You have alternative fuel names because of the Biden administration starting to wake up as well. So there's a lot of value in other places. And I've always maintained the fact, you could be very, very stubborn and get chopped up into this tech space, especially starting in the starting of the week, going in on Monday or Tuesday, or you could look, you could do it. I did a really thorough charting session this morning. I did one last night, and there was some really good value coming into this week, right? Really coming into this week that I have nothing to do with Netflix, has nothing to do with Tesla, has nothing to do with Apple. And a lot of people turn around and say, well, Dan, Tesla is going to start this next leg up. Yeah, I mean, maybe, right? Maybe, again, huge, it mirrored the NASDAQ 100. It's exactly the same way we had some monster, monster moves on Tesla to the downside, to the upside. But even on Tesla, you already know where the value is on Tesla. You don't have to guess, right? You have the channel here. You have one, two, three candles in a row. And all you have to do is look at the chart and see the top of the channel where its supply is. If it starts confirming this channel, then, yeah, maybe it goes back to the 50-day moving average around the 770 area. But it has to clear it out. You can't just say, well, Tesla's going higher. What, based on what? Because you need it to go higher? You want it to go higher? Or somebody turned around and said, no, no, no, no, Tesla's going to go lower. It's going to re-test the lows. We don't know yet, right? Again, we don't need to guess. The top of the channel gives you a green light. If it starts getting below the 5-day moving average, well, yeah, there's a high probability, then it'll test the bottom again. But don't guess, right? Don't guess. Don't anticipate. Nobody cares about your opinion. Nobody cares about my opinion. It's all about price action. We don't have to be the smartest person in the room. This business is not about being smart. You can't be dumb, but you don't need to be smart. All you need to be is practical. You need to be patient. You have to have a good ironclad process. And don't anticipate price action. Let it tell you what's going to happen next. And if you look at Friday's pivots, and there was some very, very aggressive pivots, the one thing you'll notice, again, the common denominator, as we've been talking about for a long, long time now, the game right now, if you're an aggressive intraday trader, and I've been kind of talking about this a lot, especially in the last three, four months, but the game right now is pretty the same, especially speculation money goes. The formula is this. You have repeat out of the money, aggressive call buyers coming in in the name, one after another, after another, after another, after another, right? Then as long as it confirms the daily chart, that option flow, that aggressive option flow dictates the price of the stock what happens next. And that formula has been exactly the same, no matter how good or how bad the price action was. That's the market. That is where the common denominator has been playing out over and over again. And again, I've said this for a long time now. You don't need to be an options player to get an option scanner. Find where the monster order flow is coming from. And once it starts correlating the daily chart, usually, good things are going to happen. So let's talk about Friday's session. And I'll give you guys some ideas of kind of what I like for this week. And again, this is where I, this is basically how the day played out. I go, look 99% of beta, which is the mega cap cold stocks, they're in the middle of the channel. So we need to be patient again with them today and turn our attention to other areas as we saw yesterday, which was Thursday, NVIDIA, Netflix, they finally came out of their channels and had pretty good spikes. But that's not where the attention of the market flow is. That's not where the attention of the active trader is. It's another area. So I wanted to make sure and if you look at the Twitter feed, again, there's no beta. There's literally not one beta stock here. But again, it's not the money we want, excuse me, not the market we want. It's the market we have that we have to take advantage. So let's talk about this Dropbox. Again, that was the formula. They came for the $26, $27 calls. Dropbox is a name that's been been rumored for a while now for either private equity or some sort of takeover. This thing has been forever on the tongues of a lot of speculation. So Dropbox 2580, 26 needs to build. Again, the word build, it has to trade and build a new base over that level. So here is the Dropbox 2580, 26, big move here goes. It went to the 2740s. I still like it for this week if the market continues to be good. It looks like it's going higher there as well. QS I still like. It didn't trigger, but I really like this QS. The weird part about QS, if you look and you go through the option flow, QS, they've been having some pretty aggressive bets, especially towards the summer month expiration. Somebody came in a couple of days ago for the I think June 85 calls. I like this chart. It hasn't confirmed yet, but look at this thing. If this thing confirms, you can see here, it's building again over the 50 day moving average, two days in a row. If it starts taking out this channel here, this thing has room to like $68. You should definitely keep an eye on it for this week. TCOM, again, a name that has nothing to do with Beta, 42 needs to build. Here was TCOM. It took out the 42 and went to 44. Really nice move on TCOM. Workhorse never got to the 1785, 18 area. It's still in that fight and that fist fight with the United States Postal Service. God knows what's going to happen there, but I still like that area. If this week it starts taking out 18, it should give a move. XONE, apparently it triggered after I logged off for the day. I like this chart. 36 needs to build. Look at XONE. 36 needs to build. Finally got above this channel here of 36. Close to 36. 3640s. I like it. I think this is a shot against the 38 this week. Planteer, a lot of order flow as well. Again, it stopped right at 27, guys. That's the number. That's the number. I'm giving you a pretty good setup here. If this thing starts building over that 27 level, look at this PLTR. Look at it. This is now the second day in a row. Same thing as QS. It's closing above supply. If it starts confirming this whole channel here, maybe it gets to 28.5, maybe it gets to 30. Again, a lot of good option flow as well near-term $30 expiration on the name as well. Penn National Gaiman, obviously the Prez, the whole Barstool crew. Penn, $131.50. $132 needs to build. Here is Penn. Took out that $132. Again, not a big move at all. We traded at the 33. I still like it higher. If it starts confirming this 33 area, it should get to 37. Again, assuming the market doesn't die an angry death, Jumiya never got to this 50 level. I still like it for this week. Again, TCOM take on the way up. This is the most amazing part. The QS just did not participate. If you look at what the Dow did, what the S&P did, what the Russell did, look at any of these stocks, NASDAQ stocks, not only did not participate, they got hammered. Again, look at Facebook, hammered. Look at Alibaba, taken down. It's not like they were just flat. The market was exploding and just these stocks weren't participating. Amazon, same thing as well. Again, that's not where the money flow is right now. They're not long, they're not short, we're waiting for more guidelines from the NASDAQ 100 macro. Tesla obviously never got to 666. Lenders Club, again, another perfect example. They were coming for the March 17, this was in January, February, March, April, excuse me. The buyers were coming in repeat buyers for the 17 calls. 1430 needs to build. Here was Lending Club. It took out the 1430 and stock went to 1530s. Again, it looks like more upside there. I traded the Lending Club, I traded Dropbox, take on the way up. DS, little stock. 310 needs to build. Again, here it is, repeat, $319, $5 call buyers. Here's DS. Again, not a huge move, but maybe it is a big move. I don't know. It took out 310. I didn't trade this thing, but it took out 310 and went to 330. Is it a 20 cent move on a $3 stock big? Again, I don't know. It all depends what you trade. This thing looks like it's going higher as well, but again, if you took it a 20 cent move on a $3 stock is not bad at all. I think going into this week, for the macro view of the NASDAQ 100, I'm kind of waiting. Let me give you guys some ideas that I kind of like for this week. I do kind of like this week. Smaller names that look pretty good here. I definitely like Plantier, PLTR. I want to see it kind of confirm this channel here. If it does, again, I don't think the first move is going to be huge, but you could get like a dollar, dollar and a half. Any close though over 28 can start a really big cycle. That's going to be a very, very important area. I like this CLNE. It kind of goes into the whole Biden, clean energy, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. First close above supply. If it starts confirming Friday's channel, it has a lot of room as well. Blackberry. The meme stocks have been kind of going nuts. Look at Blackberry. Not horrible, not interesting. Really interesting. Stop right at the linear regression line. If it starts confirming this linear regression line, maybe it starts opening up. Keep an eye on that as well. Friday with a $2.50 price target. This thing has, you know, this thing definitely has a history of making multiple day runs. Here it went from like 38 cents, like $1.70. Pretty decent push on Friday. If this thing, any close above a dollar on this thing, you know, who knows? Maybe it goes back to the areas as well. Other than that, all beta is going to be pushed to the side until we get a clean confirmation. Guys, the one thing is for all you guys who are joining us in the live webinar this week, this upcoming week, or on the Twitter feed, please watch the workshops this weekend. Again, just keep on rewatching them. Again, I could feed you pivots till you're blue in the face, including Sunday. But again, if you don't understand, you know, the moving parts, you're doing yourself a tremendous disservice. So guys, have a great weekend, everybody. Stay blessed. Love you all. And God's help. I'll see you all next week. Take care.