 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Good Wednesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN 906 a.m. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading we got some inflationary data That's a little bit hot this morning and we have a market that's mixed S&Ps right now negative by three points But zooming in on the action. You see that 830 number We spiked to forty three fifty five We've given up the overnight gains and then a couple points trading at forty three thirty eight on the S&P's negative by two NASDAQ 100 given up some of the gains as well still positive by 26 points are almost two tenths percent in the green You jump over to the Dow the Dow negative by forty points thirty four thousand two fifteen the Russell Positive by just two points was above twenty two forty initially on that inflationary data Bitcoin given up some of the gains it's had recently 58,355 was the high early in the week. We're at fifty five thousand five hundred and fifty lots of fives there and that price action down two hundred and sixty five bucks in the session Crude oil given back some of the gains, but right near eighty dollars We're gonna be talking to Teddy keg stat of forex dash trading dash unlocked at forty past the hour We always talk to Teddy about the forex markets, but commodities coming into that picture crude He's been calling for a hundred dollar crude for a while now We were each eighty two dollars and eighteen cents earlier this week quite the acceleration for crude continuing gold Look at this action in gold. My goodness Gold not really liking the inflationary data potentially from seventeen seventy eight you dropped down to seventeen sixty gold And accelerated from above three thirty a.m. Gives back all of those gains right now You're positive by a dollar still technically on the session on gold silver pretty similar action You were almost at twenty three bucks. You give it all back almost 2275 and we got jumped to notes and bonds because there's a little bit of price action as well we're seeing lower price and higher yields on that inflationary data and we're jumping over to the data in a moment But right now you're talking about a ten-year 1.58 percent the yield on that ten-year pretty much just right back to yesterday's price action But you do see the drop off about ten ticks or so from one thirty one oh six down to one thirty twenty six We got a one thirty handle make it a one thirty one handle on the dot right now on the ten-year Let's jump over to the volatility index as we digest that inflationary data the market gives back some of the overnight gains We had and let's jump into the data core consumer price index Rising five point four percent year over year in September the market was looking for five point three percent So not a staggering beat But the price index for all items rose point four percent for the month the market was only looking for point three percent You exclude volatile food and energy Not sure if that makes sense since food and energy are so much of what we're paying these days But nonetheless you take the core number. We're talking about point two percent on the month four percent year over year I mean still a staggering number right four percent inflation year over year if you take out food Which is just through the roof if you take out energy through the roof? You're still at four percent. You're still at point two percent on a monthly basis And the numbers they were looking for there were actually point three percent and four percent Yeah, and then this goes on to talk about just yesterday The IMF warned that the Fed and its global peers should be preparing contingency plans should inflation prove Persistent that would mean of course raising rates sooner than expected later in the day you had st. Louis Fed James Bullard president James Bullard Thinking the Fed should be more aggressive Then you also had Fed president and from Atlanta Raphael Bostick saying Factors have pushed inflation hire will not be brief not transitory But nonetheless you throw in there. You got JP Morgan CEO Jamie Diamond saying that he thinks it's gonna clear up inflation won't be a factor by next year kudos to him Not sure that's gonna be the case, but nonetheless we got JP numbers JP Morgan numbers this morning as well now interesting They come out with the numbers you trade higher You get that CPI data and you start a conference call and you actually trade back lower And you're talking about down about 30 cents right now for JP Morgan this they kick off a bank earning season Back to when you're talking about Some of where am I at? Yeah, that's all we had up there for the inflationary data What are you talking about mortgage demand? Okay, we're gonna jump around to the market. I want to make sure that was it The market I mean taking a look look at gold in a big way, right? I mean look at these moves that we have here yesterday Friday Of course, you had non-farm payrolls talk about some acceleration but pay attention to these moves folks because inflation coming at you 4% on a year-over-year basis excluding volatile food and energy That points to inflation in a big way and that's not even factoring in when you have Wage inflation that is very very sticky You also have home prices very very sticky in terms of rental prices that you're paying rents going up through the roof and Tampa one of the hottest markets out there up 20% I think year-over-year rental prices those are contracts are getting signed for a year in a matter of what happens You're paying 20% more in rent just that alone in people's heads having to pay 20% more in rent is gonna translate to Demanding more for salaries at a time when food is up oil is up Gases up the whole deal commodities across the board S&P is nonetheless up two points though as we come into the action. All right, let's jump around to what else we got going on I talked about it JP Morgan is out with their numbers and they reported a profit of 374 share for the third quarter This market was only looking for three bucks revenue top forecast The quarter was strong despite negative economic impact from the Delta variant and supply chain disruptions And as we went over JP Morgan basically flat this morning Delta out with their numbers as well beat estimates by 13 cents adjusted quarterly earnings of 30 cents a share revenue Be forecast as well quarterly profit was its first since the pandemic began But it doesn't anticipate a modest current quarter loss due to higher Fuel costs. That's energy folks. You talk about CPI you talk about the core number Yeah, it's not always about the core number when you have companies out there having to pay higher costs for fuel Delta trading a little bit lower on their numbers this morning There's your acceleration from about 43 75 down to 42 88 this morning. You're down about 75 cents That's almost a 2% drop on Delta shares and as we talked about JP Morgan pretty much flat trained at 165 30 Yeah, basically flat from yesterday's close to a JP Morgan plug This one's an interesting one talk about some volatility up 7.1% the pre-market and announced a partnership with Airbus to decarbonize air travel and airport operations with plans at select U.S. airports as the first hydrogen hub Pilot airport Interesting story about plug when I signed up for look at the stock talk about volatility Wait, do you see the run this things had and giving it back? So when I first decided to give Robin Hood a try just to see what it was about We we do a financial program. They're all the rage, right? So we're going back almost a couple years ago now That I opened an account to see what it was like and I think it was somewhere around the the middle of the beginning of 2020 something like that and What they do is they give you free shares as part of opening up an account Well, the free shares I got were a plug And I think it was I think I got one free share of plug And I think it was at $3 or $4 at that time hadn't heard about the company I said, you know what? I'll just take my $3 instead of holding this thing I took it trades up to 75 bucks. I said that probably should have held on to my plug shares Nonetheless, you get back down to the teens at some point earlier in the year But plug catching a little bit of a bit as they're teaming up with Airbus and they'll have their Their hydrogen plugs in US airports. It looks like all right Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks as we come into this break You got Amazon shares right now barely in the positive. You get the Nasdaq 154 points. You got Amazon up about 13 bucks Apple look at that drop off an apple. We'll talk about that We're gonna sell maybe 10 million less iPhones because of why supply disruption Stay tuned folks. We'll be right back with our man Kevin Hicks from TD Ameritrade Network Fast Market. 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You're looking at a market bouncing back to positive territory buying the dip S&P's back to right where we were basically when we came into that 8 30 inflationary data interesting You get a pop in a big way. We're back to 43 49 to get the nasdaq 100 actually above that price level from 8 30 147 30 Dow back positive by 32 points right now. You get the russell positive by five I talked about apple so right at the close yesterday apple comes out and they say They're going to cut iphone production goals due to the chip crunch They've been talking about in the tiger stand this morning Uh, you could call it a little bit of a tame reaction, especially as apple gets a rebound overnight You're talking about almost no loss overnight when you come out and say that they expect to make 10 million fewer iPhones than planned Maybe there was some pricing into this built that they might have some form of supply woes Uh, interesting that you're only trading down that much in terms of where you are in apple You're talking about a 50 cent haircut and meanwhile apple pointing to the fact that it's going to hit them To the tune of potentially 10 million fewer iPhones than planned in terms of how many they may make apple nonetheless down Uh, of all 50 cents as you have the tech stocks trading up nasdaq 100 of 73 points right now All right folks, let's jump over to our man kevin hanks every trading day 12 noon eastern time fast market kevin hanks tom white talking about defined risk talking about the market action Sitting up hypothetical trades in this market kevin hanks. Good morning Good morning. Tommy, you know, I was listening to you talk just now about apple And doesn't it just feel Like at least once a quarter There's some rumored story about apple and supply chain problems and or weakness in demand and Things like that it comes out every quarter and I think that's why you see a very muted response to it because If you're trading apple a lot and watching apple on a daily and weekly basis It seems like you get one of these stories every quarter And so You know, it's obviously something you always have to trade off of But it's not surprising that there's a muted response to this. Tommy You know, it's interesting kevin I was surprised to see kind of the rebound But you do have all the markets right now in the green coming into the open We'll chat maybe about the inflationary data in a second, but apple Not exactly the similar price action compared to some of the other fang stocks, especially google microsoft that have some extraordinary runs You were up to 157. You're back to 40 So you're already down more than 10 off the top and you were trading kevin at a price of 138 back in last december So you're within a couple dollars of where you were at almost 10 months ago in apple Not quite the case on some of those other tech stocks as well With the run they've had so maybe part of that price action We'll see if it plays out man as we talked about yesterday though So supply disruptions one of the possible themes and you have apple coming out, you know As we basically kick off earnings with jp morgan and the banks this week talking about 10 million fewer iPhones We'll see how that plays out. I imagine they're not the only one going to be talking about supply disruptions For the next few months. So we get the cpi data this morning kevin Market reacts and then reacts yet again, and we're kind of right back to where we were as of 830 price action across the board Right now. What do you think about that cpi data? Yeah, if you look on the one minute candles On the finger swim platform on all the short-term notes. They were all over the board For about five or ten minutes there and then they've come back pretty much in line and that movement down in notes Up in yields made You know stock indices a little generous for a few minutes there, but now they've Basically bounced back. So yeah a couple volatile minutes there and that's what you see what can happen when you get the release Of a number as important as cpi a lot of speculation based on those numbers tommy. It was kind of interesting Yeah, it's it's pretty cool. So the number that comes in I think the headline was a 0.4 percent for the month They were looking for 0.5 0.3 Uh, you have on the on the core on the core aspect of it kevin, even if you take out Food and energy you're still looking at a core number that year over year is at 4% How do you see that playing out as we have the fed coming up november meeting with the core number even at 4% year over year Well, here's the thing the the core headline the month over month was point two What you're gonna start seeing tommy is Probably that those year over year numbers start to ease down right remember the comps from a year ago Are gonna start showing up a little bit smaller You're already starting to see it in the red book number that came out Tuesday These numbers are starting to ease back to normal levels So if your own pile's right and like I said the month over month numbers only point two Right do that over 12 months and you get a much different number than 4% or 5.4 percent So, you know, this is going to be watching inflation And watch the transitory nature of it and if it is Now remember drone pile wants some inflation the fed wanted some inflation up to two And possibly a little higher than 2% So the key is to watch this and how it plays out over the next few months So, uh, I think this number was remember we trade a lot off consensus and the consensus was looking for point two And and four percent on the year over year for the core those numbers came in in line The headlines were both a tenth warm at point four and five point four percent So bottom line is coming the tenure is actually lower after that number It's pretty cool. And with all the volatility in the market the amount of variables contributing right now Kevin I would agree, you know point one percent. I was kind of surprised to see the huge reaction at first Because I said, well, you know, that's that's pretty close The top line number was what 5.3 or 5.4 with everything going on the type of misses that we can have in the non-farm number Etc pretty close in line and the market corrects back to that price level So we have JP Morgan with their numbers this morning Kevin pretty pretty decent numbers You're you're almost flat maybe down a few pennies right now with a 165 10 by 165 30 bid ass Just under where they closed yesterday. We got delta numbers as well Delta trading a little bit lower down about 70 cents from 43 54 to 42 86 What are you guys going to be talking about on fast market coming up at 12 o'clock today, Kevin Well today, we're going through first and foremost, uh, like folio is going to do a presentation on domino's pizza And they come out with earnings Today, so they're they're going to do the actually tomorrow before the open and then we'll start we'll continue to look at the banks and we've got you know, well fargo city group Morgan Stanley, so we've got a lot of banks to do today. We've got colman sacks on friday, so but interesting When you think about domino's pizza You don't think about a technology company, but they are without a doubt a technology company And they were delivering food long before uber eats and door dash and all these other companies, Tommy I mean, it's pretty cool, right? They brought that ceo in there and I don't remember his name now just Absolutely, you just turn that company around investing in technology like you're talking about man I remember ordering domino's pizza man. You watch whatever they call it that You can follow your order along Interesting Kevin in the last earnings season pulling up a daily in the thinkorswim platform This thing really accelerated to 548 and you gave up that whole acceleration coming back into earlier this month Even on a daily uh a week ago a little bit more october 4th down to 468 From 548 excuse me from yes 468 from 548 right near the 382 And they'll be out with their numbers. I love the analyze tab on the thinkorswim platform You're talking about a decent move there kevin for volatility almost a 31 move priced into their earnings $480 stock, of course But that'll be an interesting trade man. We look forward to the conversation as always. Well, kevin We appreciate the update. We'll be watching today at noon. You have a great one, man Thanks for having me on tommy My pleasure as always folks tune in 12 noon eastern time new program kevin hanks tom white Outstanding show they set it up at the beginning. They're talking market action. They're talking domino's pizza. It's earnings season folks That's the best time to watch they got unlimited hypothetical trades They'll be talking about domino's pizza earnings tomorrow 30 dollar and 90 cent move stay tuned folks We'll be right back for the market open Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with Become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the tiger's den trading room only at tfnn.com The tiger's den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the dan and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the tiger's den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air And can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Subscribe to the tiger's den risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community tfnn educating investors You could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market You could be making a lot more Check out tfnn and tiger tv and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial future Go to tfnn.com and find the newsletter for you Whether you're into trading gold metals futures currencies or options You'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead tfnn also features trading services with a 30-day money back guarantee for new subscribers as well as tfnn's tiger den trading room trading software and educational webinars for all trading levels and make sure you check out tiger tv for free on tfnn.com or tfnn's youtube channel for live financial content from 8 30 am to 4 pm eastern on market days Stop watching on the sidelines while other people get rich and become the investor. 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We got markets positive all the markets in the green right now You're looking at an s and p at 43 51 actually above where we were when we came into that cpi data You're looking at the nasdaq 100 accelerating We're talking about highs above the pre-market price action as well 14,742 up 6 tenths percent the dow barely in the positive But up by nine ticks in the russell positive by three right now jumping to commodities Crude giving up some of the gains were down 92 cents at 79 70 you got gold bouncing back And kind of bouncing back from that first move we had at 8 30 golds up $12 at 17 72 silvers up 33 cents at 22 84 And let's jump to the note and bonds as kevin was talking about quite the reversal of the price action You had the tenure spiked down 10 ticks and then just like that we're up about almost what is that 12 13 14 ticks 130 109 from 130 26 quite the price action You're talking about a yield right now of 1.55 percent I think we're probably at what 1.62 1.63 something like that yield wise As we have higher price and lower yield I guess the market Siding with the the case that kevin had probably presented there Which is 0.2 percent on a core monthly on a core number on a monthly basis Not that bad If that's where the trend will persist and continue towards in terms of the comps on a yearly basis coming down You got 0.2 percent on the core on a monthly basis pretty much in line But there were some estimates out there with the core number being as high as 0.3 percent on the month Interesting to see how that plays out into the future. Let's jump to apple See how they're trading on the open right now apple down about 65 cents Not bad when you look at that number in terms of talking about 10 million less iPhones potentially than they were planning the market is positive. So apple's negative or narrowly you'd have Apple in the positive with the market, I'm sure. So you're giving up at least a dollar somewhere like that of those gains You did spike down almost three dollars though from about 142 to a low overnight of what one 139 30 139 27 Big price action, but you've gained back most of that right now at 140 70 All right, what else we got going on let's jump over to netflix talk a little netflix netflix shares have been on a run Recently, let's pull up the chart before we talk netflix up about six tenths percent with the market right now You pull up the daily quite the run this thing has had from august 12th near 500 bucks Let alone when you were in june you're at 480 almost you're at 628 right now now netflix I have watched i'm a netflix subscriber don't really have netflix shares wish i did on that recent run But squid game south korean film out there that's dominating netflix i've checked it out I watched the whole thing it's a pretty cool series 111 million viewers globally since it's september 17th release didn't actually realize it was released as recently as september 17th Just because there's been so much talk of it Getting sucked into it myself The biggest series launch of all time. What's interesting here is that it crushed the previous record bridge bridgerton Which i have not watched i've seen it advertised on netflix looks like a beautiful show in terms of what they're spending on that thing Bridgerton had 82 million in the first 28 days And squid game crushes it with over 110 international growth has been a key focus on netflix in recent years of course The streaming giant said an elite on a tweet late tuesday 111 million viewers globally since it's september 17th Launch out there quickly became a hit in numerous countries Not least in its home country where the local brand provider actually sued netflix after the show led to a spike They can't even keep up in south korea with the internet. So many people are watching it The series is not for the faint of heart. I would agree It's about fictional contestants competing in a series of children's games and hope they'll win a bunch of cash And if they lose they pay with their life a little bit of a suspense in that one But nonetheless interesting 111 million netflix they got some things coming down the line beyond that in terms of their production And you're seeing it in their price at 628 right now. You're talking about a company valued at 278 Billion dollars. Let's jump over to disney take a look at disney With their streaming quite the consolidation disney's been in between about 170 and 185 for the better part of basically six months You're pushing almost When you were in april you made it up to 203 that 170 price point also a 382 from the run It had last october to 203 disney up 38 cents right now at 173 51 We'll jump back to some of the other stocks that are moving I want to talk about vimeo. Yeah vimeo Total revenue in september jumped 33 percent over a year ago. We use vimeo for some of our services at tfnn video software companies subscriber numbers up 14 percent average revenue per user up 16 percent They are trading higher in the pre-market vmeo is their symbol. There's a gap for you up 13.3 percent Now they have been in trouble recently Their last earnings a huge miss in a big way So you've barely gotten back. I mean you were coming into their last earnings at 45 dollars You're still trading at 30 dollars right now for this company But nonetheless, maybe they've turned it around in a bit a company similar to YouTube a little bit more functionality, but not the chart you want to see here Uh, I believe maybe they went public back in may and it's been a one-way Ship to lower prices tough when you're competing win the likes of youtube in in video content cloud services distribution, etc Surruptive therapeutics they're lower in the pre-market after issuing guidance that was below forecast as well as announcing a stock offering The biotech company shares fell 8.1 percent monday despite upbeat drug trial results But they rebounded 4.1 percent Tuesday talk about some volatility srpt is their symbol Yeah, talk about volatility in a big way. You're down 8 percent today. They got a stock offering They decided to make that offering when you just traded from 65 to 100 You got to be careful in some of these equities when you get this type of a run, right? You were at 100 this thing just drops out of bed from 96 to 87 And you see the drop it had monday so obviously higher expectations for the data They came out with on monday as well talk about expectations this market Talk about a resurgence now. What's amazing here is that these moves don't look as fantastic as they actually are because When you put this on a five day chart We have to incorporate the 150 point run almost that the s&p's had from the lows of wednesday to the highs of thursday If you just zoom in on just yesterday in today's action Still decent action. You're talking about a 20 point bounce from where we were at 8 45 this morning and the s&p's were up at 43 54 We're now above where we were anytime pre-market yesterday You're talking about being back to where we were at 2 o'clock yesterday prices Believe we have fed minutes for the september meeting at 2 p.m. Eastern time today as well That'll be interesting to see how that plays out as the market looks for any type of indication that Things may change in november with the decrease of asset purchases coming expected Interesting to see what they have to say 2 p.m. Eastern time. I believe that number hits All right checking back to some of the commodities gold continuing to rise 17 74 looks like it's making a run for 17 78 That we had for higher prices earlier We jumped to that note and bond market to check it out as well Yeah, look at this run total reversal what we saw initially right now You're looking at 10 year yields now under 1.55 percent sitting at 1.5 47 percent All right, what else I have out here. Let's talk a little bit coin as we come into this break I talked about I think it was late last week or maybe potentially even monday that there were potential for three or four ETFs to come online By the end of this month. Well, it doesn't seem like that might be the case at least to some They're all up for approval But we think we're more likely to see a bitcoin futures etf first, uh, this is uh Rosenbluth senior director of etf and mutual fund research at cf r.a We'll talk a little bit more about this but with bitcoin sitting at about 55 Thousand, um, they're talking about that they might see a delay of those bitcoin futures etfs until 2022 until the regulatory environment is More clear, but there's a few release lists. That's up venak brochures. Best go we'll be right back folks Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv Back folks. We've got markets in positive territory. Let's go over to our man Teddy cakes that every wednesday we talked to teddy at 40 past the hour You can reach teddy every trading day at forex dash trading dash unlock dot com as we look to talk a little bit Of forex, maybe we'll talk a little bit of the dollar. Maybe talk a little bit of that crude oil market Teddy cakes that good morning. Good morning, tommy So where do we start man? We got a cpi data number this morning Had a little bit of movement in the currency action I got the dx y the dollar index up there quick spike to positive prices and we give it back in a heartbeat What do you think about that cpi data number and the action we got whether it's notes and bonds Or some action in the dollar as we kick this off Well, I think the number is very lagging for one. I'm not really too concerned about the way it came out I think what you're seeing really right now in the markets is the oil driven Rally in certain currencies and break and others It's very obvious with oil being at around the 80 dollar level and pushing obvious I mean, you know what my projection is to a hundred. It's going to keep on going I think what you have right now because you've had a little uptick in bonds and notes over the past day or two That that's putting a little bit of a halt on the on the dollar bull Versus many currencies, you know, that's why you're getting a little relief in the euro and the pound and not necessarily a pound but the swiss But the oil trade is definitely driving the us dollar yen I mean since we talked last week talk about an explosion into new highs, you know I mean now we're trading at a level of we're at 13 44 right now in the end I was calling for 112 half on the way to 113 half, you know for the past couple weeks Well, now we've hit that, you know 114 116 is definitely in my sights You know, I mean remember I've been saying for weeks that 116 is where I'm looking for by the fall sometime you're moving into november Very likely for us to hit that and even last week I said now with the way oil is going and stuff that you can see the us dollar yen Probably at 122 by the end of the year, you know, but not the same for like the us dollar canada We had a head and shoulders that was confirmed with Higher oil prices driving the canada stronger versus the dollar With the uptick in the bonds and notes. It's also helping to fuel the break on the downside for the us dollar canada So our divergence definitely exists, but the oil trade is back on table remember I said it was off for a couple of months. It is definitely back on the table And the interest rates I'd be very leery about this little short-term little uptick I think no matter what you're going to see the notes and bonds a lot lower over the next couple weeks The reality is that the fed and even these numbers this is the same remnant If you remember back in 2005 to 2008 The housing crisis started three years before they even acknowledged it being a problem The fed or you know, the national association of realtors and stuff And you got to remember that whether it's cnbc or the fed or a lot of government agencies, you know What they do is they're all pep rallies for the market They always say something good when the numbers are good and when things are bad They always really sandbag them and downplay them But we all live in reality, you know, we all know what everything is local You can see how things are everyone sees the pricing and stuff I mean the fact that the fed says inflation is not a problem and it's on pace pretty much and whatever Well, they obviously don't go shopping like the rest of us do, you know So and don't see what's really going on around, you know, especially in major cities Not everyone lives in a major city, you know, so I think that we're going to this is going to be Exacerbated a lot once we get to the holidays that they can't hide the fact that inflation is here It's not going away by any means, you know, but people voted for this This is the oil industry is going to be under under siege for the next few years It's this is just the beginning, you know When I called a hundred dollar oil a year almost a year ago now, you know, eight nine months ago 10 months ago That was a short-term figure that was thinking that well If we make these short-term moves, this is going to happen But if we actually start to reinforce these short-term moves, which is being done Well, now you're looking at a hundred and fifty dollar oil a year from now You know, we're looking at we're gonna make I guarantee you that the prices that we saw back during the bush era, you know 20 years ago We will we will exceed those prices in probably the next six to 12 months And that's not going to stop, you know until that wave stops You're going to see this perpetuated all across the country And these currencies are going to be impacted by it too, you know, so I think the u.s. dollar canada Once again that that bear trend is probably going to resume in a big way, you know Especially, you know, if interest rates do keep an uptick right now, you know Because if the Fed keeps on their buying program, which we know it's going to come to an end soon But they're doing one last wave of buying, you know, so that'll support that that's not good for the dollar And then the oil price is definitely going to drive it, you know And I think that you're seeing it, you know in the countries that are most impacted like japan the yen, you know The u.s. dollar canada obviously not so the euro the euro is in a bad shape too We know that energy costs are rising, you know if oil really starts to press higher levels I wouldn't doubt that you see the euro u.s. dollar trading 10 basis points lower, you know in the next six months And what do you I mean that that would be talk about adding some volatility across the board man If we start seeing 150 oil let alone anything above 100 People like to talk about 80 dollar even as we get above that it starts causing some problems Not sure why every 10 dollars probably doesn't cause some problems as it goes up But what do you look for in a market if you see something like that, man? I see uh I see the market getting a little freaked out. We ever get near 150 dollar oil Well, what do you look for just in the general markets if you think uh crewed ever got to that type of a price point? Oh the general markets I think you're going to see a big slowdown in the transports and a lot of your Your mid-range companies like your russell companies. I mean the nasdaq, you know tech companies I think are i'm not saying that they're insulated from it, but I don't think they're going to be impacted as hard But the reality is like, you know people don't talk about the transports anymore certain sectors of the s and p Well, the reality is these sectors do drive That index, you know, so and I think that as we're hitting this This buffering point of costs, you know as we head into the new year you got to remember that We're already looking people are talking about not having to order christmas gifts for two years out now You know your supply chains are getting so backed up. So even though there are things out there We have four shortages Four shortages cause inflation and cause higher demand, you know how the basic supply and demand goes I think that these things will be incredibly exacerbated in 2022. I mean People think, you know, I remember last year people like, oh, this is the year we hope never happened I know a lot of people that would rather go back to 2020 than 2021 2022 I think is going to be especially financially is going to be very very hard on small businesses Middle middle class families for sure, you know, so and the overall market is driven by earnings Where are earnings going to come from, you know, think about this with restaurants? I talked to somebody in the restaurant industry that I never even thought this was a problem Now you have restaurants. They're paying their waitstaff 15 to 20 an hour They're still getting tip 20 on tabs. So the alcohol prices have gone up the food prices gone up Your server is now making 30 40 an hour at some restaurants. Now. This is not all restaurants, you know So but this if you realize for what you're getting, you know, it's like, well Why am I paying someone 40 dollars an hour to take an order and deliver food to me? You only see him three four times in the course of an hour, you know So I mean and these things are there's a reason why they kid. They're not they're not hiring because they can't find people now They're not hiring because they can't afford them. Yeah, you know, I mean and that's becoming an issue So all these entanglements and I'm not I don't have this solution You know, I'm not the one setting these things in motion But I'm observing these things and these things are causing law of jams And when the small business when you have too much government interference now And now you have all these force measures that they have to do that are not part of a business model How do you run your business that way? You know, it's not sustainable, you know, and I think these stresses are really going to impact The overall economy. I mean the s&p is like I'm very embarrassed the s&p's in the in the long run for the next year and a half We haven't had a bear market in a while and I think the earnings as soon as they dry up They're going to strangle hold and Down it goes. Yeah, it's going to be about earnings, man We get the s&p's back to negative territory right now down three points apple Of course 10 million less phones. Teddy. We appreciate the whole wrap up the conversation, man We'll talk to you next week dollar yen 122, baby. We love it more calls hundred dollar oil Thanks, teddy. We'll talk to you next week. 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We had quite a reversal looking at the charts on a one-minute basis There's your s and p's were back to negative four points right where we were at about 8 45 this morning on the lows after that cpi data quite a give back of the gains we had from 43 56 or down a quick 20 points And that's in about 15 minutes folks again one minute bars here Nasdaq 100 holding up a little bit better than the other markets positive by 50 points till you get the Dow down 144 Look at that acceleration below yesterday's lows Russell negative by three points at 22 66 Crude holding pretty steady at 79 66 and we jump over to that gold contract quite a resurgence in gold Everything with a dramatic reversal gold up 21 dollars at 17 80 We got to jump to notes and bonds real quick There's your 10-year up three ticks right now at 131 oh wait Let's check out the volatility index real quick with the vix nearing 20 again at 1979 checking out some of the Fang stocks real quick amazon shares positive by almost seven tens percent right now You have apple cascading a little bit lower down 1.3 Maybe the market paying attention to that possible supply disruption not a possible supply disruption 10 million fewer iPhones It's a hefty price tag per an iPhone even at a thousand bucks, right? What do you got to add? You got to add three zeros you're talking about 10 million 100 million a billion That's 10 billion dollars 10 billion dollars potentially if you're selling each phone at A thousand dollars all right jumping around last story we're going to talk about here Social security cost of living this one out. How about going up to the tune of 5.9 percent the social security cost of living adjustments going to be almost 6 percent in 2022 Uh 2021 you had a 1.3 percent number that's going to translate into a monthly average benefit of almost a hundred dollar increase from 1565 to 1657 5.9 cost of living increase and that number Let's see is predicated Adjusted annually using specific set of consumer price index data consumer price index for your urban wage earners and clerical workers or cpi w Is the number they look for uh probably? Deservedly so if you're supposed to keep up with cost of living because as we all know it is going up It's going up more than 2 percent. That's for sure. Thanks so much for tuning in folks. Don't forget I didn't get there of a basil Chapman on the front page of tfnn folks He's got a webinar coming up next tuesday his programs coming up right now You can sign up 30 day money back guarantee for the opening call You'll be in there with basil next tuesday for 90 minutes. Stay tuned folks. Have a great wednesday