 Hey, everybody awesome here. Hey, so I can't get the I Can't get my little screen picture here to show my face, but I guess that's not important. I Just think it's normally more personable. But anyway, I got another trade recap. I want to go over this one. It's on SES But before I do I want to say I'm not licensed I'm not registered and none of this shall be taken as investment advice even if it sounds like it All right, so I had a trade on SES today and This was what we like to call a black swan runner Basically a black swan is something that happens, you know once in every blue moon, right? The black swan is super rare to find It's it's one it's a it's a play that comes around that normally catches every single person off guard now Like at you know, like what what we try to do in the chat is we try to kind of guess when things have been kind of stagnant for a Very long time That's typically when you'll see a black swan runner appear When everyone is just not expecting anything it just the market's been totally dead And we'll finally get one and that's the case this time It doesn't have to be a dead market for a black swan runner to come but very often That's when they like to come and we call this a black swan runner because it went from three Yesterday right or like I guess it gapped up on the on the day one of the move You know we gap at the three and push to five and the next day, you know We open at ten and go all the way up here to twenty six, right? That's what we call a black swan just something that completely just defies all reasonable expectations of stock behavior So let's get into it. So I mean I guess we can start from day one because this is kind of when This is kind of when the move starts, right? so This stock on day one I actually had a nice trade on this I Had a nice trade on this on day one, too I got a nice short up here the first resistance Short up here on pre-market highs when we pushed up here and I covered down here but this this place started when the stock gapped up right and it gapped up on You know what? I don't even The stock gapped up on news and And the news was I'm checking it out right here Yeah, that's right. Yeah, they agree to acquire Australian future energy for 36 million, right? It's just a it's a simple catalyst. It's a good catalyst. It's a it's a hype catalyst because it's a lot of money for a small company So it's a big deal. So it's like it's material. It's a material catalyst It's not something like oh here are Insignificant drug reports, right? So it's something significant, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's going to turn into a black swan There's a there's a lot of catalysts that show up that kind of create a that that don't create a black swan What really creates a black swan is sentiment, right? The market has to be ready for one or not ready for one Meaning that traders kind of have to you know, not be expecting trends to continue not be expecting Stocks to you know, like traders get comfortable with stocks fading and that becomes a little too Anticipated, you know or two guests and when short sellers get caught and the volume is high enough on a low float Like this one was like a 1 million share float What can happen is just the float rotates over and over and over and over again and at some point it comes to the point to where it doesn't even matter how high the stock is because The float has been rotated so many times that It there's not just this enormous amount of demand or selling pressure from people who Bought the bottom of the move and sold the top that the theory of float rotation is that the the buyers at Three four five six and seven when we trade 30 million chairs two days in a row The buyers down here had ample time to get out At eight nine ten how many buyers are actually buying at three Holding on to their position and selling at 25 right the the theory of float rotation is that the buyers Normally with that kind of volume in this kind of price increase someone who held at three They're probably taking their gains at six seven right or five right and then the people who bought at six and seven are taking their gains at eight and nine and There's not this you know Not everybody is holding on and everyone you know has to panic and sell all at one time Because there's a float rotation everybody's getting churned bought and sold as the stocks going up so if there's no you know accumulation of Buyers from the bottom then there doesn't have to be this overwhelming selling pressure at say $8 a share or $9 a share just because it's up a hundred two hundred three hundred four hundred five hundred percent You know the buyers and sellers are getting churned through and as we get to $12 we have new buyers and sellers new buyers and sellers that are fresh at this level That that aren't you know, there's no hangover from the threes and fours buyers and sellers Right, so that's the idea of float rotation is that it gives everybody ample time to get out and everybody who's in the stock It's likely that you know It's a likely assumption that a lot of the Participants who are currently long or short the stock are fresh right and in small-cap land They're the there's a second assumption that shorts like to to try to survive Small-cap moves to the upside because we all know that small-cap companies are normally Pigs and that they're normally going to come down. That's the expectation Is that crappy companies that get pumped up or go get up on hype and catalysts will eventually come down and every now And then we get a black swan runner where people hold that assumption a little too close to the heart and you know like Everybody thinks it has to come down. It has to come down. It has to come down and so everybody keeps shorting and shorting and shorting and adding and adding and adding and as Essentially sometimes the entire float can be shorter than we just get an entire short squeeze like this So this is kind of the explanation of these kinds of moves, right? And so anyway, so let's get into the trade that I did today on this so Right at the open Let's go over the bad trade first So this looks pretty drastic. I'm gonna try to make it look as bad as possible. I Sold the bottom right so in this situation. I was trying to I bought this I bought this I had orders when the stock spiked up here I had orders to buy at nine dollars a share and I didn't get the fill down here and then it popped up to ten fifty and stuff and You know, I considered cancelling my orders, but Given how much volume this had traded. I I had hope that this could become a runner I had hope that you know that we would be able to recover from this stuff given that we're gapping up so high over yesterday Probably still a whole bunch of people from yesterday who are holding overnight short probably still want to get out and That this might you know People might think this that it's over down here, right? That it's that the stock is over after this stuff I was willing to give it another shot and so I started scaling in here and because this is an Anticipation play right I'm scaling in after a stuff You know, I am going to try to save some face here and this is a half-size loss Because and and this is very consistent with my rule of staying half-size on these kind of trades where The trade has it when you're anticipating when you're buying into the weakness and the stock hasn't Proven itself a winner yet You can't go more than half in that because what's gonna end up happening is you're good always if If you always have an add-at-at to full strategy before the stock works for you What's gonna always end up happening is you're going to end you're going to always lose on full-size and You know you might win on full-size sometimes, but a lot of your wins are gonna be on half-size So what I was really hoping for was a reclaim of the 950s at this level And this would have been like my ad spot like in all of my other videos, right? So I took them pretty I took a pretty bad or bad looking loss here just because I got the bottom but The stock decided how do I zoom in on that? Let's the stock decided oops the stock decided to come back kind of like I thought and Because I wasn't exhausted. I was willing to give it a little bit more I was willing to give it one more chance So we this is a very strong perk and I posted in chat at about this time like hey This is a really strong perk off of the bottom You know off of this tank and essentially I'm willing to reuse the same idea But instead of as this trade but instead of anticipating and trying to capture the bottom Now I just wait for the reclaim. I totally just wait for the reclaim So I even say in chat if this thing burst through nine I'm not going to be a buyer because this is a very possible stuff area just like this was You know buying over 1050 here just expecting it to break high of day Well buying over nine expecting it to break and reclaim you're kind of chasing into strength So I told Chad I wasn't gonna buy on this candle if it broke through nine right around here I'm like if this breaks through nine, I'm not gonna be chasing it, but if it holds I'm gonna be interested So fast forward a couple minutes and we start to hold so I start to put on a feeler here Right and like I get the feeling that I'm gonna be right right away So I go ahead and I just and I just put the rest and I double the size on this trade and right as we Perk through nine I do like this higher low and now that I have a fixed risk I'm willing to go in as full size or as full as I want to right So I get to my full-size decision here and I immediately take off a third right here I take off a third of my size right here for a scalp immediately I'm a little bit red on the trade and I'm trying you know like I'm trying to Get back into my process and my process is to take a third off for a scalp An argument could have been made that I should have taken off a third right here because this is a scalp And then this wouldn't have seemed so bad if I was able to get a piece off here The you know in hindsight and in foresight to I actually I was talking in my tab And I was like you know what I totally should have taken that for a scalp because that's what I'm supposed to do So if I could have done anything different on this trade I should have taken a third off right here, you know, I still would have ended up losing on the trade but You know just it would have been a little mitigated and this would have been a recycle so Fast forward I take a third off here and we just keep going I take another third off here And now I'm kind of hoping that we get a halt and We do so I take a little piece right I take half of my third off for the haul So I have like a six in my position off love I have a tess a tiny about left and Like I let it I let it trade for the first minute I'm like you know what I'm gonna sell if it gets under 10 I sold the last six down here and of course then it just immediately ripped and I don't regret that, you know like I could have saved a little piece But you know, I was happy to recover my day if we were right here near crowded day I don't know at this point if it's going to be a back black swan I don't want to be betting for black swans on my trades You know like I need to create some kind of systematic approach to my trading that and if I try to gear my trading around Capturing black swans basically that's going to result in me losing over time You know if I if I don't take these profits if I take this trade a thousand times And I don't take this profit here just trying to get a black swan out of this one I might make it on this one, but how many am I going to lose on right and yes I can make it the the decisive factor maybe and decide that this trade has black swan potential And that's what I tried to do with the last six. I just I just couldn't hold it I was like, you know, if it gets under 10, this is a very it's it's halty. It's stuffy This is where it stuffed hard last time and I'm like, I only have a sixth in I get out and This is oh, I thought that was the end of my trade, but I forgot so anyway It perks up and after this big move now as we after we break high of day I decided, you know breaking high of day with authority like this I can probably get a nice first bounce trade out of it So I get a nice scalp out of this right here, you know I'm willing to I was willing to add one more time on a crack under 1150 We didn't get it. So this is a smaller just, you know Fielder size first bounce trade that I got buying here selling selling I sold a little bit I sold half right before high of day break and I wanted to sell the rest on a new high of day break But it looked like we were gonna stuff so I just sold the rest So just a quick little scalp trade there to add padding to the day But look, we know we we flash crashed down here and go to higher And so right now we're in black swan mode up here in and black swans Um, I normally say this is black swan and black swans are well above my pay grade Right and I just say that and I'm not willing and I'm not afraid to admit that black swans are above my pay grid I'm not looking to trade black swans one the spreads are always super shit black swans to this black swans Always have an increased risk of T12 halt because we're up from three dollars a share and we're already at 12 Not saying that it is going to it's probably very unlikely that a t12 halt is but I gear my trading towards avoiding that kind of situation at all costs I don't want to be caught in the t12 halt long or short So I kind of just give give up on this for the rest of the day now I considered buying it over here when we started to consolidate and like gear towards 14 Um, right like right around here. I considered buying it up here, but I just didn't like the risk you know and like Yes, I know this is the black swan potential It's already a like a minor black swan at 14 Like it could become a major one like it did but at this point What am I risking not I you know, you can say that I can only risk 13 dollars But this is what's really tough about these kinds of trades Um, I've already I had already given up on the stock at this point Like I don't want to be like the spreads crappy. I don't want to be risking You know more than a dollar a share if anything bad happens and I know I have to give it this much room so You know, am I willing to hold for? 20, you know, so am I willing to risk like a halt a massive stuff candle to 12s Where I don't get out until 12 dollars and I risk two dollars a share and then so in order to buy here at 14 dollars I gotta hold out for 16. Am I willing to Estimate that no not at all. So I just give up on it for the rest of the day And it just totally went nuts. And so this is that float rotation that I was talking about It just doesn't let shorts out, right? And like you can see like what it really starts going parabolic here There's just no dips like this is a little pullback little pullback But there's no like severe pullback even when it gets up here This is a big pullback and it rips right back You know it pulled back rips up that like this kind of this is a long slow decay from 24 to 19 When we rip from 13 to 26 in equal amount of time So this was really this really just caught shorts in a bind and Really, you know, when you shorten cover the top, you're always tempted to chase down here But then you cover the top you chase down here You cover the top and it just ends up being an emotional mess And I just didn't want to be a part of it because I you know I've lost on this kind of set up too many times So I gave up on it after my morium trades after the midday and the the perk I this was a well above my pay grade so One thing to take note one final thing to take note is a lot of people think that their trades are insignificant Um when they see hindsight results now this can be whether you bought it and sold it And then it went way higher or you shorted and covered and it went way lower One good thing to take note that I think is important for trader psychology is that Your trade ends when you exit You you're not supposed to give a flying fadoodle about what happens after you exit your trade like you're otherwise You're you're welcoming the chance for regret to happen And when you open the door to regret you're opening the door to FOMO Next time you're opening the door to makeup trades. You're opening the door to Revenge trades. These are all things you want to avoid right? These are all like detrimental trader Downfalls so Um, the the best rule of thumb is to not give a crap about what the stock does after your exit Whether that's their stop or your target reached because you want to at the end of the day be cool with your decision so Now that does this mean that you can't learn from opportunities and try to increase your profit for next time? No, of course not, but what you shouldn't do is Hang over on what you could have should have would have done You know your trade is over and next time you can plan for um, you know Maybe perhaps better targets or better stops in mind for next time But what you can't do is dwell over the decisions you made this time your trade needs to end after for example I bought it here at nine and I don't consider this a losing trade at all Because it went to 26 and I only got this part and I was done with it here No, I took the predictable part of the trade that that I was comfortable with that I know is the bread and butter part that I feel is the most predictable for me And I walked and I don't feel bad about what the stock does after because my trade ends At my target or my my predetermined target or my predetermined stop If my predetermined target or my predetermined stop needs work for next time I will assess that, you know at the end of the trading day or the next day or on the weekend But I'm not going to dwell over it during the trading day or the next day even like thinking about it before I've had time to refine my process So separate the two process refinement time and trade ends. I'm I'm cool with it time Anyway, that was the trade recap on s e s If you have any questions, please let me know. Have a great have a great day or night. Aloha