 Rwy'n credu, mae gennym yn ymdau, yn gyntaf, i gyrddwch i'r ddau, felly rydyn ni'n gwneud o'r gyrdd. Rydyn ni'n gwaith y gallwn i'r gwaith,�o'n gwybod o'r staf. Rhywbeth a'r ddechrau, rhywbeth o'r llaw o'r Llyfrgell Brithwllus, yn y casiol i'r llaw. Diolch i'r rhwng ymgyrch, oedd y cyfle o'r Llyfrgell yma yn y ddol Dyna i'r gwleidio'r cymdeithaseth a'r iawn i'r ein hwn yn ysgrifennu'r cymdeithaseth. Felly, mae'r gwleidio yn 2014. Dyna, mae'r gwleidio'r gwaith yn y U.K. Rwy'n gweithio six times yn dwy ymgyrchu. Mae'n gweithio 98 cymdeithaseth yn heddiw. Mae'r cymdeithas hynny'n six-hundryn, a'r cymdeithas hynny'n cymdeithaseth sy'n cymdeithio'r cymdeithio'r cymdeithio. Mae'r cymdeithio'r cymdeithio'r cymdeithio. The difference between us is that we actually build companies so we structure those businesses and grow them appropriately which I'll get on to. OK, the stuff we know already that the world is changing dramatically and as we would say, software is eating the world, I don't care about sectors anymore in the traditional sense. Digital nifer is the key to growth of all sectors of Barnan, it's the core of everything. We're utterly aware of this. We used to think that was a lot of people on the internet back in 1995. Of course now we've got to the position where nearly every adult human being on earth has access to the internet. ac mae'r bwysig yng Nghymru yn yma i gael ei ddweud, mae'n gweithio'r rhai gwahanol oherwydd mae'n gweithio'r gweithio'r gwahanol. Mae'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio, maen nhw'n ddifŵr i gŵr i gŵr i gŵr. Ac mae'r ddaf yn ddifru yn cael ei ddechrau gŵr na'r gweithio'r gwaith bwysig. Mae'n ddiffrŵr i gŵr i gŵr i gŵr. ac mae'r ddaw iawn i'r ystod yn gyflu. Mae'r ddaw iawn yn y ei ddweud, mae'r ddaw iawn i'r ddaw iawn i'r informatio cyflu, mae'r ddaw iawn i'r ddaw iawn. Rydyn, rydyn, ysgrifon ymlaen, ond mae'n gweithio. Rydyn, rydyn, i'r ddweud i'r ddweud. Dwi'n angen i'r cyflawn o technoligau. Mae'n angen i'r clyw gweithio ar gyfer 1900 yr angen i ddweud, ac yn y cwm nhw'n angen i ddweud y cyflawn. Iefall, when a technology about nine per cent of the population have it, it is starting to be a thing. We cut it off, not at 100 per cent but at 91 per cent, as there is always some nut jobs up in a bothe that don't get electricity. This is a really good way to think about the adoption of new technologies. If you look at the green line here, in 1940, with electricity, you could take the same with the phone and the car. Rydym ni'n rwy'n ei dweud i fy Curie, a mae'r fawr i fy modd, rwy'n ei wneud... ..nydd y typ i'r 1776. Nid i'n ddiechrau dyn nhw rydyn ni'n 70 mae'n takenu eu cynwledd. Ac oedd ei dda i ddylaeth hynny. Doedd mae'r gweithio'r ysgolio'r Llywbodi sydd yn eithaf... ..ad amgylchedd yn Llywodraethol. O dda ni'n chweithio'r gweithio gweld... ..a peth angen... go to school and learn about electricity and you might be lucky enough to go to college and learn about electricity then and you could get a job in the electricity industry and you could go all the way through and you could retire with a nice gold watch. Look at this red line here. This is the smartphone. It's already fully adopted. So if you're going to school and you're learning that touching a piece of glass as a user interface is a thing. You haven't even got to university by the time that Alexa has taken over in its voice control. So big existential questions what the hell do you teach your kids in school and so on. But nonetheless this is where we're living. The important take home measure from that is probably that if there's one thing that we could give our children it would be the ability to continue to learn because we are all going to have to learn again and again and again at faster and faster paces. At the same time companies are dying off faster. Back in 1960 this is the average lifespan on the S&P 500. The average lifespan was 60 years. Now it's around about 12 years the average lifespan of these companies. And as new companies take over and are destroyed themselves we see this disruption. And this is stuff that maybe tried many of you seen this stuff before but it's worth repeating. This Airbnb world's biggest hotel company owns no hotels. Uber world's biggest taxi company owns no taxis. When's the last time you've paid for a long distance phone call? Do you remember Kodak anyone? WhatsApp now sends double the amount of SMS messages than SMS. And this is one of these slides where the punchline is on the slide already. If I was more keen on animating I'd have it pop up later but I can't be bothered. So when we think about companies doing their forward planning and then if you think about the classic turkey problem. So if you were a turkey and your keystone metric of success was body mass you'd love the farmer because every day the farmer gives you more food and you get bigger and bigger, your body mass gets bigger and the farmer's a great guy. So if you were doing your predictions, your financial predictions or in this case your body mass predictions for next year Q1 and Q2 with a really good certainty, a good nice R squared there where you put some variables around it but essentially you would have a pretty straight line. But there's a single piece of information that that turkey doesn't know about and of course that's Christmas. The point of this is what is the turkey moment for traditional SMEs? I hate the word, we should never use it but traditional businesses in Scotland. What happens when a company like Zero comes along and becomes the Facebook for accountancy? And it doesn't destroy the top end of what the best accountants may do for you but it rips out all of the bread and butter stuff by automating it and destroys every local accountancy firm in Scotland. The same for law, etc. And this is what we are dealing with. So the idea that many of these companies have when they're thinking about their growth and next year they might hire another person and maybe they'll open an office in Dundee the chances of these companies being killed off is real and it's something we're facing all the time. So we know that not every country will succeed and this is a, believe it, I've got a lot of stuff to talk about and it ends up being a very positive message at the end of this talk so bear with me. This is fascinating. So again, this is on this side the US stock market. On this side the British stock market, AIM, 1900 and 2015. So we're saying that in 1900 you could take the railways as a proxy for innovation. So clearly back then the UK was highly exposed to this form of technological innovation. Now this bit here is all of tech on Nasdaq. Can you even see it from where you're sitting? See this tiny sliver here? That's all of tech in the London Stock Exchange and it's worse because since that happened ARM have been sold to the Chinese so that's gone and that little tiny sliver also includes BT. Now BT is plumbing. It's nice plumbing but it's plumbing so this is shocking under exposure to the thing that we all are aware is changing our lives completely. Then it gets worse. This is the relative size of those stock markets. So back then 1899 the UK was a quarter of all stocks and shares sold. Today and I'll get out of the way, 6.2%. So even that tiny sliver is even smaller and when I used to go round the world and I was trying to do my PT Barnum bit for Scottish startups and say how awesome it was to build businesses in Scotland we'd say we invented, we like to think we invented everything, it's not true, we just invented nearly everything and all of that stuff and it's a good thing to talk about and I used to do it but the truth is when you actually map that out that's all in the past. In fact it's a lot when you really map out all of the inventions they're incredibly clustered a couple of hundred years ago. So we're living on these past glories so what we've been doing recently well this is the GERS data and so Scotland spends 325% more money on enterprise and economic development than the rest of the UK for no results. So Scotland 52 per capita one company created for every 12 people the rest of the UK 16 pounds per capita one company for every 10 people and you know it's worse than that because see the UK stats it's actually difficult to tease apart the Scottish bits so the Scottish bits included there so it's staggeringly bad and what does that mean we get with all of that hundreds of millions of pounds wasted on comedy nonsense this is all Scottish companies the small, the medium and the large there are 98% of all Scottish businesses are small, 1% medium and 1% large and we all know that 0 to 49 is a bit of a rose there are not 49 employees in these businesses almost all of them are zero employees 76% are zero employee businesses so when you map that and you take this, this is the same data but you add on employment and turnover these small businesses they're not even paying tax they're not even paying corporation tax most of them are surviving little grants here and there and so on but this is not going to keep the NHS and the roads happening when you look at the medium you see that the tiny little increase in turnover that tiny slice at the top between turnover and employment that's the bit the boss gets in the medium size company and even the 1% that are large businesses that ratio of turnover to employment tells you instantly that they are not fast growth companies because a fast growth digital business, a scaling digital company has a much different ratio than that and we know that competitive advantage goes to nations that focus not focus on creating companies but focus on scaling them growing proper companies so what Scotland had done more recently is focus on service businesses so whilst Microsoft and Oracles and so on back in the 90s would come here and sell their products we weren't building those products we would build people that would have service companies to service those or companies like RBS essentially service businesses and those service businesses are linear growth the companies that we need to build the companies that we're building in codebase the growth companies companies that can go from 1 to a million users online because of this thing called the internet so I want to talk about some of the key trends and the opportunities that we have in terms of thinking about a future of a sustainable Scotland so thinking about future cities and cities getting bigger I thought back to when I had hair and when I was young and I used to read a 2000 AD comic with this horrific fascist judge dread who lived in mega city one and that was science fiction there was mega city one and the eastern seaboard and the cursed earth where all the nuclear war had happened or whatever but that's happening that is now the truth successful cities are growing faster and faster than ever before so today more than half of the world's population are living in urban areas by 2050 it will be 70% power of technology there we are this slide is fascinating so this is the number of people added to a city per hour so London has 9 people added to it per hour which is actually a staggering amount when you think about it but look at Bombay 51, Lagos 85 Delhi 79 people an hour moving to these cities scale comes both the good and the bad with scale comes more crime but also with scale comes all of the good stuff so all of the economic development the laws of scaling are such that you get about a 15% efficiency saving as you scale a city it's also where all of the innovation happens these companies exist in clusters where people come together so technology is given as superpowers which outpace science fiction Wikipedia the power to know anything Google Maps the power to never be lost I thought you'd like this so this is horseless carriage from 1895 horseless carriage Mr Joseph Wright who applied for and was refused permission by the Glasgow Town Council to try the experiment of a horseless carriage on Glasgow streets in a letter says in the meantime I have abandoned the idea and allow me to say that those in authority in our city might as well try to beat back the waves of the sea with a broom as to try to stem the tide of the horseless carriages which are looming in the distance they are surely coming an air long they will be running in thousands along our streets and now of course we have the looming prospect of driverless cars we know it's happening and of course it's easy to predict driverless cars it's much harder to predict the second and third order effects of that I think back to the last century it was easy to predict highways but it was harder to predict the business models of Walmart and McDonald's which came from highways the questions that we have to face are when driverless cars happen what are the second and third order effects so for example when no one needs to park anymore does it reenliven city centres do all out of town shopping models die what happens to all of the spare land what can we do with that all of these questions are real and looming rapidly but really when we're talking about a lot of this stuff and productivity and all these worries we have our robots eating your job artificial intelligence so we have a number of AI companies and code based just now which are staggering in what they can do it's a bit dark this this is from the apartment Jack Lemon amazing movie 1960's so can you see the desk that he's sitting on there so the job that he did there every single bit of his job is now done in a single cell on a single sheet of excel so that whole floor is basically one sheet of excel the floor below is the next sheet and at some point the boss presses enter so those jobs are all gone but they've been replaced by new ones so the doom and gloom bit is it's easy to predict the jobs which will go it's harder to imagine the jobs which will come if I talk to my granny and say I've got people employed that are doing search engine optimisation of course she's got no clue in terms of machine learning a couple of points many of you the more scared of flying amongst you will know that you're currently only flying for about 7 minutes per flight and that's dropping by about 20 seconds per year the rest of it is all machine learning algorithms that are flying your plane where you have medical diagnosis more effective than a doctor the alpha go deep mind when self-driving cars are safer than humans so bearing in mind this how do we build a positive future for Scotland when so many of these jobs will go and we're trying to build a new future which can allow cities to grow efficiently so we can make those great companies and allow the countryside to regrow appropriately well we have to build more product companies to avoid that turkey problem we cannot be building these service companies that Scotland has just relied on for the past few decades we need to build more product companies we need to leap on the energy that came out of sky scanner and build more of that not more of the same crap fail ups and more companies in the front of the global stage to drive in our investment and job opportunities the companies that I've got that go well double in size every 6 or 7 months so the 2 become 4 but the 40 become 80 and that level of growth is extraordinary and we must have that to have a future of jobs here so we can be an innovative nation again selling to the world and we must do that and bring everyone else along thank you and say hi on Twitter