 Yeah, welcome to this seminar to all of you from a fairly cold and rainy delft. I mean my office today at IHE Delft. So, on this slide you will can see the way I have contributed to the IPCC report. That was a coordinating lead author of chapter 12, which concentrates on regional climate change effects. And I was a lead author in the summary for policy makers. And in technical summary and I was contributing author for several other chapters. I'm at IHE Delft, I'm 20 university and at Deltares. Please note as indicated below in the slide. So all the material in this presentation is subject to IPCC copyright. So I have to cite anything you use of this presentation with the IPCC copyrights. Okay, so for those of you who are not very aware of the IPCC process. The last assessment report was the fifth one, which was released in 2013 and 2014. Let me move this a little bit. And the sixth report, the first follows the same kind of format. We have three different working groups. So working group one is a physical science basis, working group two is vulnerability impacts and adaptation and working group three is more on mitigations and and then eventually we will combine all of these three into a shorter report, a synthesis report. So what was released recently in August on the ninth of August to be precise is the working group one report in which I played a major role. Working group two and three will be released in the first quarter of next year and synthesis report is expected to be released in September 2022. So for those of you who don't know about the summary for policymakers, which is document that actually gets read a lot and cited a lot in any IPCC report. That's a very interesting process for me to I learned this time by participating in the approval sessions. It's about a 40 page document, and it is approved line by line every line of this summary policy makers is approved by the 195 UN UN governments. So it's a very long process, a lot of negotiations, a lot of attention to detail and it's the two week approval session that was basically 24 hours a day someone is always online. And actually this is done at a physical meeting, but this time due to this corona pandemic, we did it online which was even more demanding everyone. So the team of the working group one report from here after I will talk about the working group one report which is already released. And 31 coordinate lead authors distributed among chapter so I was one of them for chapter 12 and 167 lead authors, 36 review editors, 29 chapter scientists to help us putting together the chapter with the figures and coordination they do a lot of work, and more than 500 contributing We have four lead author meanings, I think this was the second one that was held in Vancouver. In 2019 so that's all of us together there. We was, can you have for such physical meetings but we only managed three the last one was held online. The IPCC is also very serious about representation across governments across across ethnicities across gender, across gender. So the team comprised of authors from 65 countries, and around 30% were women and 30% were new to IPCC. And the review process is really comprehensive so for this report the working group one report we assessed about 14,000 publications or peer review publications. And then we go through about three or four cycles of requesting comments. And we received more than 78,000 review comments, each one, which we have to address, can't ignore anything. Every comment has to be addressed. So 46 countries. Can I minimize this. Yes, 46 countries commented on the final government distribution. Read the comments. So question people ask is now we are in the sixth cycle of the IPCC so what is new about about this report compared to the previous reports. I can mention few other authors may have different views but I think these listed ones are the main new things in the air six compared to previous assessment reports. We can now really with a great deal of confidence attribute hazards to climate change. And that's because of better models and more data and better techniques. Unlike previous reports, which almost always give sea level rise projections until the end of this century. In this report, we provide projections up to 2300. And this is a new thing which was handled exclusively in my chapter, we provide a regional assessment of 33 different climatic impact drivers I will tell you what they are later in 51 different regions. So it's much more granular in terms of the types of hazards we assess as long as the resolution to which we go to. In terms of continent based or global scale, we have divided the world into into number of different regions including ocean regions, and we assess how these 33 climatic impact drivers are projected to change in the future, following different pathways and different global warming. And for the first time. We have extensive assessment of coastal climatic impact drivers in the previous reports. This was limited, pretty much to see ever rise, but this time we go also into coastal floods, extreme sea levels, coastal erosion, things like that. And this is a very interesting development in the air six, we have interactive atlas, which anybody can access freely and they can go to their region. So let's see how any of these 33 climatic impact drivers, this project will change in the future for a given scenario. So, in my opinion, these are the main new things in air six. So, now to go into the first main part of this presentation. So I will focus here on sea level rise, which is handled exclusively in chapter nine of the report. So first looking at the past, we have now very strong evidence you can see here we have high confidence, and these confidence statements are not arrived at easily, you know, we have a method to arrive at this confidence limit so whenever you see high confidence in IPCC chapter, you can, you should think that we have looked at different lines of evidence like observations, models, reanalysis, a lot of things expert knowledge, attribution, and when we put all these things together if everything points in the same direction, and also the number of papers saying the same thing. And then we have high confidence. So, with global mean sea level rise, we have high confidence that sea level has risen faster since 1900, then over any prior century in at least the last 3000 years. This figure shows that the bit in the box dash box here, but this is going back about 2500 years. And this is how the global mean sea level rise has varied up and down, and you can see since about 1900, we are on a very sharp increase. So if you take the global mean sea level rise. Since 1901 to 2018. It has risen by 22 meters, which doesn't sound like a lot. But interesting thing is that it is rising at an increasing rate. So if you take the first 70 years of the last century, the rate of increase was about 1.3 millimeters per year. And if you look at the time, since 2006, it's almost triple that close to four millimeters per year. So something is changing and seriously. So what are the main contributors to sea level rise. So here in this figure, we have indicated all the known key contributors to the global mean sea level rise. In blue, the contribution from thermal expansion, which was the main contributor to sea level rise before 2006 and see, you know, in here in the early part of the last century, the blue dominates. But after 2006, the gray also starts to dominate. And that is from the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. So that's a concern, a very big concern. And since the 1990s to 2020, the contribution from this ice sheet melting has quadrupled. So it's really a rapidly increasing. Now, in this report, and also in working group two and working group three reports. We follow slightly different scenarios to what then what was followed in previous reports. So we have five SSPs we call them shared social economic pathways. So we have one 1.9, but they're 11.9. We assume that we immediately cut down. So here is the carbon dioxide. You got, you got on square here. This is the x axis is the time. So in this SSP 11.9 is a world that we cut down on greenhouse gas and immediately sharply. And then we reach net zero by around 2050. And this is P12.6 is one where we slowly cut greenhouse gas greenhouse gas emissions, and we reached net zero emissions by about 2070. So this is more moderate to 4.5, maybe increasing a little bit and then slowly decrease from around 2050. And this is the worst case scenario 58.5. We just keep going as we are going or even increasing greenhouse gas emissions continue to burn fossil fuels SSP 37.0 is something we introduced new this time and this is this is the pathway that we are on track now. Taking into account the pledges greenhouse gas emission pledges made by countries in the Paris agreement. Now this has been renewed in the COP26. So it might be slightly different but 3.7 zero is is the line we are tracking now. And if we actually stick to the pledges made by the by the countries in COP25. So these on the right hand side are the other greenhouse gas pathways. It's not only carbon dioxide you should know that so there's also methane nitrous oxide and sulfur dioxide. Also greenhouse gases, which most people don't talk about but actually could have very long lasting effects. So for each of these scenarios, then we also have a temperature prediction. So here are the five scenarios. And with these future emissions whichever part that we take, take will govern how much warming be rich in the future. So these graphs are for the change in global surface temperature by the end of the century, relative to pre industrial period. So 1850 to 1900. And in each of these plots, the dark area. So this is the total temperature. The dark area is where we are now. And that's already about 1.1 degrees more than pre industrial period period. And for each scenario, then we have a maximum production, which so you can see with SSP 1.19. By the end of the century, we will stabilize around 1.5 degrees, which is the Paris Agreement target. And if we keep going as we are going now, we will reach about 3.5 degrees more than pre industrial. And if we go in the worst case scenario, you will be reaching about 4.5 degrees by the end of the century. So just keep keep these scenarios and these warming levels in your mind as I go along this presentation, I will I will be referring to these scenarios quite a lot. Okay, so going to the future. So these are the silver eyes projections to 2100 relative to 1900. So it's not in this in this figure which you can find in the summary for policymakers figure number eight. These projections are given relative to 1900. So you can see the different projections for the for the different pathways. And you can read them often off this graph or there's also a table given. But if you want to convert these to the present, then you have to subtract point one six from these projections to convert them to present. And then you get for SSP 11.9, a sea level rise range of between 0.28 and 0.55 and for the worst case scenario, a range of point 63 and one meter. So these are the likely ranges, which have a probability of being reached off about 66%. So anytime you read a likelihood statement in IPCC report that has a specific meaning in terms of probability so likely is more than 66%. Like that, in chapter one describes all these criteria we use. And you can see again with SSP 370 which is this red line here. We could still reach a sea level rise of about 0.9 meters, a likely sea level rise of 0.9 meters by the end of this century. Another thing we do in the AR6 is also provide this dashed line which represents low likelihood high impact storyline. So it's not a scenario, it's a storyline means if it happens and be happens and see happens what could happen. So this storyline takes into account. There is uncertainty about ice sheet instability, especially in the Antarctic. And it can only occur on the SSP 58.5. There is some evidence saying that SSP 58.5 is something that we will probably not reach. If we stick to the pledges made by the governments and increasingly unlikely. But any pledges made by the governments in November of 26 are also honored. So that's a very worst case scenario. But under this scenario and under this scenario, this storyline, we could reach about 1.76 meters of sea level rise relative to 1900 by the end of the century. So relative to today, then that's about 1.6 meters of sea level rise under this storyline. And we're cautioning you here though that for this storyline to happen. Not only do we need to have SSP 58.5, but we also have to have all these things happening like faster than projected disintegration disintegration of ice shelf abrupt and widespread onset onset of things like ice cliff instability in Antarctica and larger than projected mass losses in Greenland. So all these, if all these things happen, then we can reach this line. I mentioned that we also provide projections up to 2300. So this is that projection, the figure in the. So here I have used the same vertical scale for the 2100 projection and for the 2300 projection just to be able to compare them. You can see a pretty big picture by 2300. So this is for these shaded areas on this right hand figure indicate again the likely ranges so 66% probability. And, and the blue is SSP 12.6, which, as I explained earlier is a pretty high mitigation scenario. And this is the SSP 58.5, which is the worst case scenario. But you can see even on this SSP 12.6, we can reach about three meters of silver. And on the worst case scenario, we can reach about seven meters of silver. These are pretty serious numbers. And not only that. If tipping points are reached in Antarctica. And these ice cliffs disintegrate very fast. We cannot rule out silver as exceeding 15 meters compared to 1900 by 2300. So that's also possible situation. 15 meters. Now, we also have assessed longer term sea level commitments as another thing to recognize is that sea level response to warming fairly slowly. So what we do in this century and what we have done already in terms of greenhouse gas emissions will affect sea level for centuries or thousands of years it's not like other things like mean temperature or precipitation that respond very fast to and decreases in greenhouse gases. See level will continue to rise, and that's not much we can do we can minimize it by reducing greenhouse gas emissions immediately, but we can't stop it, it will keep going. So these are the very long term commitments. If we reach two degrees by the end of this century, or if you reach three degrees, not sorry, if you reach two degrees, whatever time or three degrees. Then, over the next 2000 years, we can have a sea level rise of six meters up to six meters. If we reach three degrees if we stabilize around three degrees, sometime or other, we will reach 10 meters or so. That's why we call a commitment. So we can reach 10 meters. So there's a long term sea level commitment due to the greenhouse gas emissions that we have made in the past, and we might make in the coming century. Right, so it's clear then. Together with mitigation efforts to minimize sea level rise, we have to adapt. And the sea level will rise, and it is, it is not a question of if it's a question of when we will reach certain sea level amounts. So this will have major implications in low elevation coastal zones, which are now home to about 680 million people. And this is projected to increase to about 1 million by 2050. A lot of this population is in small islands, deltas and coastal mega cities. This region, the low elevation coastal zone contributes about 40% of the global GDP, so there will be big social economic implications. And there's a lot of critical infrastructure like roads, railways, harbours, airports in this zone together with a lot of coastal heritage sites. And importantly, decisions with time horizons of decades to over a century are being made now in terms of spatial planning, coastal protections and infrastructure in these zones. These decisions are being made now. So, in recognizing this, the air six also provides a regional assessment of key coastal climate impact drivers and specifically, we refer to the climate impact drivers and CIGs. Specifically, we provide regional assessments, because for these decisions, global mean assessments are not enough, you need to know what's happening in that locality in that region at least. We break it down into different regions, like I said, 44 land regions and 6 or 7 ocean regions. And then we provide assessments for all those regions for these three CIGs. And then we give sea level rise, which is different to global mean sea level rise because this also takes into account more local processes like ocean currents and partly even vertical land motions to the extent that they are available, coastal flooding and coastal erosion. So, for these more specific regional CIDs, we see in our assessment that approximately two thirds of the global course line will have regional relative sea level rise that is within 20%. So 20% more, 20% less than the global mean increase. So this needs to be taken into account when you're making local decisions. So these are the three CID projections for different scenarios and different time periods and different warming levels provided freely in this sea level production tool that is hosted by NASA. So I invite you to use that in the work you do. This is the link here. We see that relative sea level rise also contributes to increases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low line areas, and it also contributes to coastal erosion along most centers. We have high confidence in the statement. Chapter 12, so the chapter that I was involved in is your magnitudes of projected changes in extreme sea level for two different scenarios and for two different times 2050 and 2100. So you can see, so here in the colors you can see a change of more than one meter in extreme sea level magnitude. So this is the 100 year event, 100 year agreement, and see by 2100 and under 8.5 almost everywhere it's blue. So it's going to be fairly big changes. And in terms of frequency of the occurrence of these events, in a globally average sense, average sense. The event that today happen once every 100 years will become an event that occurs more than once per year under RCP 8.5, which is compatible to SSP 5.5 8.5. So what would today happen once every 100 years could happen more than once a year, two, three times a year by the end of this century. But if we mitigate down to RCP 4.5, this event, the 100 event will happen every five years. So you can see there's a lot to be still gained by greenhouse gas emissions reductions. We can go from multiple times per year event to one in five years, but it will increase. So that's about sea level rise and social impacts. Now I will move on to chapter 12. So this chapter title is climate change information for regional impact and forest assessment. This chapter very strongly connects to the broader risk framework within IPCC. And we are very careful in how we define risk. We define risk as the intersection of the hazard vulnerability exposure and damage. So whenever risk is mentioned. That's how it should be understood. I will explain in detail in chapter one, and also in this new risk guidance documents that was released by IPCC 2020. So what we do within this risk framework is first we define the different types of climate changes that affect society and ecosystems. And by doing that, then we define our 33 climatic impact drivers. And then we connect each of these climatic impact drivers to the eight sectors that are handled in IPCC. And then we assess changes in each of these CIDs for all regions of the world for four land regions, and then also changes against global warming levels. And then we connect this climate information to climate services, which is what feeds into local studies, really. So what is a climatic impact driver. So this is the word to a definition from from the report. It's a physical climate system condition. So it could be a mean or event or extreme that can affect an element of society or ecosystems. So distinction here in the way risk is handled in economic circles. Even if it doesn't have an economic value, the IPCC still considered this to be a risk in the more economic literature that has all to be it has to be the damage has to be monetized. But for IPCC doesn't necessarily need to be monetized. And depending on the system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be either detrimental, beneficial or neutral or a mixture. So that's also departure from previous assessment reports we always use the word hazard. This time, we have gone to pins to bring across the idea that US climate change will have detrimental effects. But it could also have beneficial effects in certain sectors and certain regions. So that's why we use this climatic impact driver, which is neutral. If you say hazard, it immediately has a negative connotation. Now, why climatic? Because there are also other impact drivers such as earthquakes and political conflicts and for example, COVID-19. These things can also, this can also have impacts. And so therefore they are also impact drivers. But IPCC is concerned with impact drivers that have climatic origins. So that's a distinction. So what are the climatic impact drivers that we assess? This is the list I will not go through all. So we divided them into seven types. Heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, ocean and other. So in heat and cold, we get more known impact drivers such as mean, air temperature, cold spells, frost, extreme heat. In heat and dry, we have quite a few like mean precipitation, river floods, aridity, fire weather, things like that. When we have things like tropical cyclones, snow and ice, we have snow, glacier and ice sheets, hail, snow avalanches, coastal. I told you earlier, relative sea level, coastal flood, coastal erosion and in oceanic impact drivers that are more in the, not so much affecting the land zones, but the ocean itself, like marine heat waves, ocean acidity, and then three others, air pollution, weather and radiation, things like that. So I also mentioned that then each of these CIDs, we also connect to different sectors because they must have an impact. So the IPCC, DSV, these seven sectors, trans-fuel and freshwater ecosystems, water, health, well-being and communities, remind you in working group two, they have a chapter for each of these sectors. So we connect each of these CIDs to these sectors and within each sector to a number of assets. So here is an example. This is here we take the sector food fiber and other ecosystem products, which is the chapter five of working group two. And within that several assets, crop systems, livestock, forestry systems. And then in this table on this axis we have all our CIDs and these colors indicate the degree of relevance of each of these CIDs to these assets. So where there's a dark brown, then there's high relevance. So how to read this is, for example, mean air temperature has a high relevance for forestry and low to moderate relevance for these other things like crop systems. If you go to coastal, you can see coastal flooding will have high relevance for fisheries and agriculture and moderate relevance for these other assets. So that's the way to read this. White means either there's no relevance or we have low confidence on the relevance that a certain CID might have for different assets in that sector. This is a table in chapter 12, I think 12.2. And it continues down so we consider all these different sectors and within each sector assets that that that would be the complete table which I haven't shown you. So, in them. So 12.4 of this chapter. We provide regional information on changing climate for different parts of the world so first for the continent so 12.4.1 is Africa, Asia or South Asia like that, and then a special section for small islands, open and deep ocean and for polar regions. So these sections provide regional information for that part of the world. And that information is provided in different ways. So we give numbers and assessed confidence levels on observed changes and projections in the text. For example, like is one section 12.4.5 for example that which is Europe, and we have different subsections for those CID types heat and cold, wet and dry winds, snow, snow and ice sorry for this type of your coastal oceanic. We have text like this for example for coastal erosion, we have text like this that gives the numbers of the observed shoreline retreat rates around Europe for the different sub regions. Central Europe and Mediterranean here and EU, and then we have text about also the projections. So you have read the text to get the numbers for a specific region of the world. Then we also provide maps, global maps for six CIDs for two time slices and two scenarios. The CIDs are the number of days more than in a year more than 35 degrees. A number of days in a year where this heat index which relates to the ability to work outside is more than 41 degrees changing droughts soil moisture, mean winds and extreme sea levels. So we give these projections for SSP 58.5 for mid century and for in century, and as a reference for SSP 12.6 for the in century period so you can compare this one against this one to see the benefits of mitigation. And this one against this one to see the change from mid century to end century, except for extreme sea levels or extreme total water levels. We didn't have values for 2.6 so our reference there is 4.5. Then within each region. So here I think there's many of you from Africa here. In each region a section so 12.4.1. Yeah, for example, we also provide more detailed maps of certain CID changes so here we have a map of the hundred year period stream flow event by 2050. And you can see here also the different sub regions that we have divided Africa into, and on the right hand figure, the, all the confidence, the uncertainty is indicated for different regions. So these are all the, all the seven, sorry nine regions in Africa. And here we have median values and the uncertainty for different RCPs and different global ones. So there's a lot of information that you can claim from these figures. And these are another example we have in Africa, which is the shoreline position change by 2100. Again, the median values here, and the uncertainties on the right hand figure for the different regions. And then one of the main products of our chapter are these kind of heat tables we call them CID tables. So here again for Africa. So we have the different sub regions in Africa on this axis. And here we have all the 33 CIDs. And the colors in each of these cells indicates the level of confidence we have in increase or decrease. And the hot colors like pink and red indicate increases and and bright red increase indicates that we have high confidence in the increase and pink indicates we have a medium confidence. And the cold colors like blue indicates decreases. So here we have high confidence dark blue means high confidence of a decrease in cold spells and frost. And light blue here, for example, we have medium confidence of a decrease. And this is all by mid century. And that is also comparable to a global warming of about two degrees relative to pre industrial. So, but also I want to highlight that there are these caveats here there's some numbers in these cells. Sorry, white means we have low confidence. It doesn't mean that it's not happening. But IPCC doesn't do its own research. It assesses all the published literature as I mentioned. So why doesn't mean that something is not happening means there's no literature. We can't find evidence to be confident of even at the medium confidence level for these changes. So, maybe the confidence will increase in the future when there's more studies. But there's also these numbers that are caveats to some of these projections of example, if you look at coastal erosion you see this for number four, and number four says if you look at this footnote at the bottom table, that these conditions are valid so that this high confidence assessment that coastal erosion will increase by mid century is valid along sandy coast and in the absence of additional sediment sinks and sources, or any physical barriers to shore and so if these conditions are not met, then this prediction may not be valid. So you have to pay attention to these caveats. The numbers inside these tables are basically indicating whether the signal has clearly emerged or not. So if it's a black solid circle, that means the signal has clearly emerged already and we have medium or high confidence in it. And the purple circle means it is projected to emerge by 2050 at least for high end scenarios. And the white circle means it's emerging in the latter part of the century at least for the high end scenario. So we have tables for every continent, including small islands and polarities like this. Now I will take a couple here now. Oh, sorry. Yeah, so we have tables like this for every continent. And these are then synthesized in this figure in the summary of policy makers. Again, all the CIDs are on the top axis here. And here in this figure, we only show the number of regions where each CID is projected change. So here purple means the number of regions with high confidence increases. And pink is regions, number of regions with medium confidence increase and here is the orange is decreases. And this shaded area is the number of regions for which a certain CID is relevant. So I mean you can imagine that for example, the number of frosts is not really valid for some of the regions. The regions don't have cold weather or high elevations, the number of frosts is not valid. So then the number of regions where it's relevant is low. So there's a lot of information also in this figure. This is we show the number of land and coastal regions in which these CIDs are project change. And on the right hand side are the deep ocean CIDs. So again, there's less number of regions, fewer number of regions for which these CIDs are relevant because they are only the ocean regions. The thing to note here is these CIDs, the heat and cold CIDs and the coastal CIDs seem to be, they are projected changing almost every region, very high numbers. See almost all regions. So these things we have high confidence will increase by mid century. So I think the Africa table, CID table to look at a little bit more detail because I know there's a lot of you from this region present today. What do we see here at a glance, main things that we see I can go into details here because of time. But if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me as a IHE alumni you can always contact me and I will be available to you. So what we see here at a glance, these CIDs that are changing everywhere. You can see the heat, the mean temperature and extreme heat is projected to increase in all African regions with high confidence, and moreover the signal has already emerged. And cold spells and frost is projected to decrease in every African region. Heavy precipitation and profile falling is projected to increase in a vast majority of regions, and coastal and oceanic CIDs, all of them are projected to increase in all regions in Africa. If you want to look at the regions that are most affected where most number of CIDs are changing. So we see North Africa, and southern African regions, where most CIDs are projected to change. Similarly, if you look at Asia, it's a very large region, I think we have a lot of different sub regions. Again, we see the heat and cold CIDs changing so increases in mean temperature and extreme heat decreases in cold spell and frost almost everywhere. But in addition, we also see a large number of regions mean precipitation increasing. And again, heavy precipitation and profile flooding increasing. And then again, all the coastal and oceanic CIDs increasing in all regions where there is a coastline in some regions, there is no coastline, right? Eastern Siberia, for example. Sub regions that are most affected are these, so West Central Asia, Russian Far East and East Asia and South Asia. So if you want to ask about the three main messages from Chapter 12, I would say that we can say with high confidence that the current climate in most regions is already different from the climate of the early or mid 20th century with respect to several CIDs. So that means climate change has already altered CID profiles and shifted magnitudes, frequency, duration, seasonality, and spatial extent of the social CID increases. And we can also say with high confidence that every region of the world will experience concurrent changes in more than one CID by mid-century. So when a little bit more into detail, we can say that heat, cold, snow and ice, coastal, oceanic and carbon dioxide at surface CID changes are projected with high confidence in most regions. And in other CIDs, projections are more region-specific. The level of confidence we have in projected direction of change in CIDs and the magnitude of the change very much depend on the mitigation efforts over the 21st century. So there is still a lot that we can gain by reducing greenhouse gas emissions immediately and making deep cuts. So this is a summary statement that was also made by our coach at the launching event. Climate change is already affecting every region in multiple ways and the changes we experience will increase with further work. Now I mentioned the interactive Atlas so you can find that here at this URL. I invite you to go here and navigate in your area. You have different data sets, different variables, different periods, different seasons for different warming levels, all these different options here. We may also have a training session on how to use the Atlas sometime in the future. I'm still discussing that with a colleague at Deltares who was an author in the Atlas. And one thing in the Atlas, you don't have a good coverage of the coastal CIDs. So we have made this at IT Delft, which is freely available coastal futures. So if you want to look at how climate change will affect the coastal zone in your area of interest, I invite you to go to this website. It's free and you can see how regional sea level, extreme sea level, coastal value, shoreline change and extreme waves are projected to change. In any part of the world you can zoom in for different scenarios, for different time periods. This tool was made by kind of assistance provided by the DOPC program at IT. And with a very heavy contribution from the hydroinformatics group at IT. So I invite you to have a look at it today. And if you have any questions, comments, suggestions or any data requests, please do not hesitate to contact us. Contact details given here. You can write to this email and we will deal with your request as time allows. In addition to these products, there's also a two page fact sheet summarizing the main findings for each continent. So these are fact sheet Africa. These are available also on the IPCC website. So you can download them there. So I think I will stop here. So I think we have some time for a few questions. Fantastic. Thanks a lot for us. Thanks for that very comprehensive presentation and also like a very clear and explanatory presentation. We do have some questions. So let's start taking them one by one. I will share my screen. Please give me a moment. I'll share the screen with questions. So we can see the questions on the screen. I'll read them out for everybody's benefit. The first question is from a baby who says he wanted to work on climate change impact on water resources using CMIT 6. How can he select appropriate models and how many models should he consider a baby? He says you are a baby. Are you a baby? Please identify yourself. Or is it different a baby? Well, anyway, to answer the question, if it is you are a baby, I think we can also have the same building. CMIT 6 results are available, yes, from the different baby. Okay. They are available in the portal. So you should be able to download them. But there's a lot of data and you also have an interesting question about how to select appropriate models. There's a long discussion on selection of appropriate models in chapter 10. So I invite you to have a look at that. And typically what we would do in a study is based on literature, we would select the models that perform best in that region. We only work with those because some, I mean, depending on where the model is made and most of these are hosted at very large research institutes. They do have a tendency to perform better in the region of the institutes than in other areas. So it is important to select good models. And how many models should I consider? Well, that's also an interesting question. If you want to quantify uncertainty and have confidence in your ensemble, I mean, I would recommend to use at least eight to 10 models, if not more. Q, the next question is from Sanjana Korupu from UNICEF, who asks, as an IPCC report author, do you think decision makers at COP26 went far enough with respect to adaptation and mitigation measures? As an IPCC report author, I cannot make comments that are of a political nation. And this is clearly of a political nation. What I can say is that a lot of IPCC authors, including myself, contributed heavily to COP26. And we did all that we could to make sure that the most relevant information was available at COP26. And I'm confident that there has been a good level of uptake of the finding of our report at COP26. Okay, so just picking up from the last part of your answer, I guess we could take up this question next. Does the IPCC have a sense of the extent to which its research and recommendations are being factored into planning and decision making across the world? Yes, of course. Again, I can't talk for the whole of IPCC, but I can tell you about my experience as an individual. Yeah, the uptake has been tremendous. You can see also in the level of news coverage that the report had when it was released in August. And also in the past, the system reports how much those projections are taken or used in making decisions and implementing adaptation strategies. It's, I think, by far the most used assessment in decision making and implementation of adaptation and also mitigation efforts. So it's an unparalleled uptake. Of course, that's why we work so hard for it for four years. So the next question is from Gideon, who asks how does sea level rise affect ground and surface water quality? Well, it's an interesting scientific question, but I am not sure whether I have enough expertise to answer that. I have seen some studies where sea level rise has been shown to affect groundwater levels, and especially in islands, the freshwater lands and affect things like where you can place water pumping stations in rivers because the salt water which keeps going further in the rivers. So I think there's a lot of ways in where sea level rise can affect groundwater and surface water quality. Groundwater definitely surface water quality. Maybe a hydrologist in this group can answer that question. Sea level rise would it affect surface water quality? I welcome any hydrologist to explain that question to explain to explain that further in the chat. In the meantime, let's take up another question from Gideon who has a was another question similar in nature, what is the correlation between deforestation desertification and global flooding? Correlation. That question, we didn't look at correlations, but deforestation and desertification leads to aridity, so that's a different CID. Global flooding is driven by river floods and coastal flooding, so I don't think there's a direct connection between the hazard, but in the impact of the hazard there would be if areas are deforested and desertified, especially deforested, I think that could lead to extended increasing the flood extents and flood depths maybe even in some places. But then if the area is arid and nobody is using that then impact would also be minimal, I would assume if there are a lot of houses and infrastructure then the damage would be high. But if it's a bad area and if there's a lot of flooding, there's not much impact of damage already done by the change in the different CID. Thank you. The next question is from Sri Rathna who asks, does the IPC's research slash compilation process have to deal with political interference? If yes, how is that managed? I wouldn't use the word interference, but we definitely take into account the feedback of governments and that is done in several ways. So first, when the report is caught right at the beginning of the process, there's a scoping session to which the government focal points are invited. And then the main strong man outline of the report just subsections, high level subsections are decided at that scoping session. So that's right at the beginning. And then as we go along, as I mentioned, we have three cycles of review. And the final round of review is called the final government review. So that's specifically the draft goes to governments. And then government organizations that are responsible for climate change will provide feedback, written feedback comments, and we have to address those. So we address those as scientists. You know, if a government says, we don't like the statement, unless there are scientific evidence, even for that, unless such a request can be backed by public scientific papers, we will reject it. But if there's no substratiation provided, then they will accept it and make changes. And then the final level in which the governments are involved is in the pool of the summary of policy makers, which is which happens just before the release. As I mentioned, so there we have a actual discussion session where every line of the summary of policy makers, which is a synthesis of the whole report is put up on a screen. And then there's the representatives sent by 195 UN government governments. They can object to it or comment on it or request changes and then we evaluate those assessments and those comments. Sometimes we change them sometimes we don't. But how we react to this government comments and request are purely based on scientific evidence. Interesting. The next question is from Ms. Valhuk. Actually, one minute, just to finish that, my answer to the previous question, what is important realize is the summary of policy makers is not released until all the 195 governments agree with all statements in that report. So at the end of the day, we have 100% consensus by all the governments. So no government can then go back and say we don't agree because it's a proved true consensus. And the representatives of those of the different governments are the scientists or are they diplomats or bureaucrats what is the nature of the representatives. I would say most of them I mean, we don't really see their CVs but having engaged in this a poor session. I think they are all very learned scientists, they don't discuss at a political level. They do discuss at a scientific level. Interesting. Thank you. The next question is from Ms. Valhuk, which is also the name of a very famous cricket player. As a water resources researcher slash engineer, what measures should we adopt to reduce this catastrophic rise in global mean sea level. Thank you. That's a very big question. Yes, that's a very big question. And I think a question. I don't think I can give a good answer to that question. Yeah, what about the cricket? That is easy marble right not miss Bob. Well, both of them. Miss. Was a Pakistani captain and he, he is also related to insomniac both of them are in into cricket. You know, you've qualified the important matters. So, I will try to ask this, I mean, what should what message should be adopted reduce the rising sea level rise. To reduce it has to be a global effort. I think to reduce. Only thing we can do is really cut down greenhouse gas emissions. So if you can influence your governments in your positions to really commit to mitigation and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. That's really the only thing we can do radios in sea level. But as I said, that's not enough we will have to adapt, which leave in countries where there's a lot of investment in low line areas we will have to adapt. So that's something governments also have to think about. So basically slice it any which way the bottom line is that the need is essentially the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yeah, getting around that. The next question is from Gideon a different Gideon who asks how interaction of CID say coastal flooding and high density precipitation impacts in terms of risk profiling is captured in the air six. Hello Gideon. I know Gideon. Good question. So we call these compound events. So for example, the coastal flooding is a result of extreme sea levels plus blue will flooding or even flooding. We didn't find a lot of literature at regional level. So in chapter 12, if I remember correctly, we dealt with compound events only for Europe where we found the pressure. But at a more closer resolution. For some CIDs for some extremes, this compound events are handled in chapter 11, which I was not really greatly involved in so you could find things like what it means when tropical cyclones result in more rain and elevated sea levels in chapter 11. I invite you to have a look at chapter 11. Yeah. The next question is from Tunisia. What is the news regarding IPCC 2021 outcomes regarding the North African coastal areas, the southern ridge of the Western Mediterranean. Are there any highlights or key messages regarding that part of the world, that section of the coastline? Ula, hi. Nice to have you here. But you missed the talk, so then I don't want to answer the question. I have to go to the report to find the answer to your question Ula. So I think I would then ask you to maybe read that part for Africa. We do have maps showing extreme sea levels. And I also mentioned the coastal futures tool you could also have a look at that for your interest part of the world, which is Tunisia I think. Yeah, I have to know if I can put this, I can give you a, let me see if I can go back to my presentation. Yeah, sure. You can just start sharing. I'll stop sharing from my side. No, I will just look at the slide. Okay. Ula is a very senior scientist who will understand my brief response. So for North Africa. And here in chapter 12. We, we, we take only the African portion of the Mediterranean regions. That's what we call North Africa here. So, yeah, in that Mediterranean region, the top of Africa. We see high confidence in increases in all coastal CIDs relative sea level coastal flooding coastal erosion marine heat waves and ocean acidity. I think that's the answer I can give to Ula now, but if you want to have a look at the numbers and the numbers are there in the report in 12.4.1. Okay. The next question, which I think is the last question also taking into account the time is from Dr. SV Vijay Kumar who asks in the matrix of drivers and projections for 2050 the white boxes are more. What does this reflect about its purpose or mean to readers. Yeah. Good question. The white boxes as I mentioned to you areas where we have low confidence in the direction of change. So you have to be careful in interpreting interpreting. That could be low confidence in the direction of change for many reasons. Maybe different studies give conflicting results. So one study could say increase one study could say decrease or maybe the ensemble is too small and we don't have confidence in that projection. So maybe there's not enough studies that have been done in that area. So if there's like, if I already has not. If studies of already at regional or continental scale have not been published so far for a certain part of the world, then also we have low confidence because I said IPCC is based only on published results. So if there are reports government reports or great literature that have not been peer reviewed, then we don't assist us. So that's the way to look at the white boxes. I said we were very careful in assigning this high medium confidence so we prefer to her on the side of being conservative, then to give a high or medium confidence when we were not 100% sure. Thanks a lot. I think with that answer of yours we have come to the end of the proceedings. Thank you for the presentation and for participating in the Q&A. Thanks for your patient answering of the questions. If you have further questions to Rosh, his contact details are readily available on the IHE website which I think all of you know and you have also seen the links that Maria has posted in the chat. I would also like to thank the audience for turning up in good numbers and for the your questions and comments are recording of the session as as Maria has already pointed out will be available by tomorrow or latest by Monday on the water channel which is the water channel TV and on the website and the YouTube channel you can find the links to these things in the chat which which Maria Lara was kind enough to post. We'll see you at the next webinar which will be sometime next year. In the meantime, we would like to wish you a very fun filled family full turn of the year. I would also like to take this opportunity to wish you a very happy new year be from the water channel and IHE deaf wish you a safe healthy and happy 2022. It's a bit early to be saying this but we do not meet again until sometime sometime next year. Until we meet again, take care and goodbye. Thank you very much. Thank you. Bye bye. Thank you all.