 Welcome traders to the Tick-N-Wail weekly market outlook for week commencing Monday 31st of January. Studying in the US, Fed hawkishness has sent the dollar to new cycle highs, and it looks like for now it can continue to hold on to those gains. The week ahead is a very busy one in the US where we see ISM services and the January jobs report. For the January NFP, consensus sits reasonably low in the 150-250k range, following a week plus 199k reading in December. First quarter 22 will not be the best period for US growth, GDP may even contract. Yet the Fed looks firmly set on its tightening course, and that's key for the dollar. On the subject of the Fed, we will hear from Fed Governors nominees Raskin, Cook and Jefferson all to speak on Wednesday. In terms of the overall risk environment, there is some very tentative calm emerging in Eastern Europe, where further dialogue looks to be pursued over the coming weeks. We will also be focused on President Biden meeting Qatari leaders in order to secure extra natural gas for Europe, should it be required. Any significant drop in gas prices could be considered better news for European growth prospects. Elsewhere, Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. From a technical perspective, the dollar index broke through the resistance, so we were looking at the 96-20 area. We've now extended up into the first target, which is our 97-46. Found a little bit of profit taken there. I'm looking for any pullbacks to remain supporting our back into prior cycle highs, 96-90, to play for the final leg of this extension up into the projected sending trend line resistance and the 161 extension of our last corrective phase at 98-14. From there, I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns accompanied by momentum divergence to engage on the short side looking for a pullback. Moving to the Eurozone, the jump in US short-dated rates on a hawkish Fed sent the Euro to new cycle lows. It looks just a matter of time before we get that test towards 110. Ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, we'll get to see 4th quarter Eurozone GDP data, the January CPI reading and some final PMI figures. German GDP missed badly at minus 0.7% quarter over quarter, but France and Spain, surprised on the upside, consensus expects a plus 0.4% quarter over quarter for the Eurozone figure. Eurozone CPIs expect to turn the corner in January at 4.3% Euro every year as some base effects drop out. Clear indication that inflation peaked at 5% in December will hardly push the ECB into a more aggressive stance. As to Thursday's ECB meeting, there seems to be no hurry to alter the current watchful stance, even though the idea of inflation being transitory has been quietly parked. The ECB providing no support for short-dated Eurozone interest rates, it's likely the Euro dollar will remain at the mercy of the reprised Fed tightening cycle. From a technical perspective, as discussed last week, we've broke through the trendline support at the 112.85 level. I'm now looking for any pullbacks to find resistance back into the 112.20, 112.50 area to engage on the short side, ultimately looking for a grind down into that 110 handle. And from there, I'm anticipating we see a more sustained bounce in the Euro dollar. Moving to Japan. Buried amongst the Fed headlines over the last week were some pretty interesting comments from BOJ Governor Karoda. He downplayed any concern over the yen weakness, saying that a little yen weakness was actually good for the economy and that commodity prices, not yen weakness, was more relevant for inflation. Clearly, there's no panic in Tokyo for a dollar yen trading back towards the 116 handle. And I suspect that it would take a fast move through 112 to trigger a little bit more concern from the central bank. We know that the yen has the highest negative correlation with global equity markets, but with some stability to emerge in equities in the US 10-year yield to drive up towards 2%, dollar yen could start to motor on the upside. As for the currencies, expect the yen to be interested in the big energy meetings this week, including OPEC Plus, with Brent pushing towards $90 a barrel. From a technical perspective, dollar yen extended higher as anticipated and now looking for any pullbacks to find support back into the 115-29 area. And ultimately, we look for an extension up into test the 117-76. From there, I watch for bearish reversal patterns with the requisite momentum divergence to engage on the short side looking for a move back to test support to the 113-50 level. Moving to the UK, money markets are very close to pricing a 25 basis point, rate hike at Thursday's meeting of the Bank of England. Presumably the inflation forecast will be revised a lot higher and the market will be interested in reading whether the BOE still feels CPI will be above the 2% target in 2-3 years time, even with all the tightening priced in. It looks like the BOE terminal rate is priced somewhere near the 1.5% area into 2023. There's so much uncertainty about gas prices and now a key focus on putting a little inflation. Suspect the BOE is quite happy with GBP strength right now. Favour the euro sterling potentially edging a little bit lower. From a technical perspective, the sterling dollar has a pretty bearish setup. At the end of last week, we had that big outside day to the downside and then we had this bearish inside day on Friday. So I've been looking at any break of the 133-50s to engage on the short side looking for a retest of support back into the 131-70s and then when we find resistance again back into the 133-50s ultimately look for an extension down into that 130 equality target versus the 138-40s swing high. Rounding out the pairs for this week, we're going to jump to Australia where we have the Reserve Bank of Australia announcing monetary policy this week and it's reasonable to expect another step in the direction of policy normalisation. There are a couple of factors here. One data is jobs market tightened and inflation rose in the fourth quarter last year. Markets are pricing in an aggressive 115 basis points of tightening over the next 12 months and other central banks, in particular the family BOC, have signalled they will start hiking in March. Wage growth appears to be the missing ingredient to kickstart the tightening cycle in Australia and for now the RBA may simply halve asset purchases gearing up for a hike in the summer. A decision to terminate purchases would likely be read as a strong hawkish signal. From a technical perspective the Aussie dollar broke down through trendline support as discussed last week and we've extended to test the price support down just below the 70 handle and a bit of profit taking there as it goes on Friday. What I'm looking for now is resistance into the 170-90, 170-1 handle watch for bearish reverse patterns there to engage on the short side looking for a test of the descending trendline support down to 68-80 and then as we find resistance at the 69-70 handle we've ultimately got a downside of quality objective of the swing height 75-53 down to the 66-60. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 31st of January. As always traders plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.