 Welcome traders to another TICMA Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 19th of September. And I guess really all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve in the US next week on Wednesday. The market is favouring a 75 basis point raise. However, there is a chance that could go further. The market was favouring that 75 basis point ahead of the August CPI report, but the much higher than expected inflation print has seen the market price about 20% chance that the Fed will go over and above by opting for 100 basis points. A 75 basis point hike is, as I say, the favourite call, but the market seems to be acknowledging the risk with inflation, proving to be stickier than it had been expected. The subsequent meetings in November and December could see more aggressive action from the Fed than it is currently being priced in. While the geopolitical backdrop, the China's slowdown story, the potential for energy rationing in Europe, the strong dollar and fragile looking domestic equity and housing markets all argue for a more moderate part of TICMA in the coming months. If inflation momentum doesn't slow, the bank will hike by a further 75 basis points in November and possibly 50 in December. The message from the Fed next week is likely to emphasise data dependency, but its updated economic forecasts are likely to show the end of 22 Fed funds rate at 4.125% rather than the 3.4% forecast in July. Markets expect that it will be kept as that for 2023 before dropping back to the longer term average of 2.5%. In terms of other data in the US, on Monday we get the September NHAB housing market index, looking for a 48 print there, elevated cost, lack of labour and affordability all starting to bite. On Tuesday, August housing starts looking for a 1% print there and the demand being hit hard by financial conditions. In terms of building permits, also released on Tuesday, looking for a negative 3.8% print there while input constraints continue to limit supply. On Wednesday, as I said, we have the FMC meeting, we also get August existing home sales, looking for a negative 2.3% there. Persistent weakness, likely as tightening continues. On Thursday, we have initial jobless claims, 213K last week and likely to remain at those low levels for the time being. We also get the August leading index, looking for a flat print there, 0% growth, outlook clearly deteriorating. And we get September Kansas City Fed Index regional surveys mixed with a pretty fragile outlook, really. And then we round out the week on Friday with manufacturing PMI, 51.3% expected, we also get services PMI, 45.0%. And we will hear again from Fed Chair Powell, who's given some opening remarks at a Fed listens event. Those SAP PMIs point to much weaker conditions than the ISMs, potentially implying larger effects on small to mid-sized firms. So from a technical perspective, dollar traded, as we discussed last week into that 1.10.30 target. So we saw first leg of what could be a potential three-way corrective move. So what I'm initially going to be watching this week is any follow-through to the downside, checking this 108.19 ascending trendline support. If we don't find buyers there, then we could get an equality move. So when I'm talking about the equality move, I mean equal legs. So we could see an ABC move that see us trading down into this high volume area, 106.50s. And then from there, we look for one more push here to complete what could potentially be a more meaningful wave three high into that 1.11.50s, 1.11.80s, and 1.15.50s just above, which is the monthly projected range resistance. But again, if we get some momentum bearish divergence to develop on that next push, I'm certainly going to be looking at re-engaging on the short side. I'm currently short the dollar index and looking for that trendline test of potential equality objective as we head into this week. On the upside, like I say, all attention for me is going to be on that 1.11.50s, 1.12.50s, for a more meaningful tradeable wave three high in place. Heading to the Eurozone. In terms of data next week, what do we have released? It's pretty light week in terms of data. Focus is really going to be on Thursday when we get a consumer confidence looking for a negative 24.6% print there. Confidence has collapsed to historical lows in the Eurozone. And then we finish things up on Friday. Services and manufacturing PMI manufacturing within 49.1. Services 49.2. A broad base weakening in demand is becoming an increasingly prominent risk for the Eurozone. So from a technical perspective, obviously, pretty much looking at the inverse to the dollar index scenario. So if we can hold a base here at the 99.40s, we look for an equality test back into the 1.2.70s. And then looking for another leg to the downside to ultimately check that 97.40s, 97.60s, which is the yearly S3. And from there, I'm going to be looking for a more meaningful bounce. Certainly a countertrend rally that can be traded from the long side before eventually taking another look to the downside as we head into the back of the year. But for now, looking for a move up to test the 102.52.1 over three area. Moving to the UK, obviously, sadly on Monday, the UK is going to be offline bank holiday for the state funeral of Her Majesty the Queen. In terms of data, right move of house prices released on Monday, more declines to come as policy tightening continues. Heading into Thursday, the big events of the week is going to be the Bank of England. Markets narrowly favoring a 50 basis point hike on Thursday, taking the bank rate to 2.25%. Although 75 basis points is clearly on the table, and Markets expects at least a couple of policymakers to vote for it. The announcement of an energy price cap from the government was drastically lower near term CPI, reducing concerns about consumer inflation expectations, becoming de anchored and reducing the urgency to act even more aggressively. However, Hawks will be worried about the recent independent sterling weakness and will also argue that the government's support package could increase medium term inflation, given it reduces the risk of recession. That means it's a close meeting to call, but if markets are correct and the committee does move more cautiously than the Fed and the ECB next week, then we can expect another 50 basis points move in November at least another 25 bits in the December meeting. In terms of the data, we ran it out on Friday. Manufacturing PMI, 47.3%, services looking 50.9%. The UK is in a similar position to the US, and the manufacturing and services have been hit hard by inflation. We also get GFK consumer sentiment read. Growing pessimism amongst the consumers in the UK should see that come in with a negative 44, or below the negative 44 last time print for that reading. From a technical perspective, sterling weakness as noted, looking now for a move, any corrections basically to find resistance into this high volume area here, coming in around 150s, 150s, 20, various reverse patterns there, should take us down to test this 112.50. From there, I'm expecting a potential for a more tradable corrective load to be put in place. We should see some nice momentum divergence in play, and so we'll be looking to trade that to the long side, thinking about a move back up into test the 120, monthly protective range resistance before we can think about the next meaningful leg to the downside. Ultimately now, I'm looking for a move down into the 106, which is the 127 extension of this last rally that we saw post the pandemic crash there. So heading to Japan, and obviously the BOJ, the Ministry of Finance on the wires last week, referencing or taking reference rates from some of the banks in Japan as obviously very concerned about the moves that have been seen in the game. In terms of data, Tuesday we get the August CPI, year-over-year print, 2.9%, 2.6% last time out, prices pressure, gradually building, the BOJ appear unconcerned at this stage. And then on Thursday we get the back of Japan meeting, the BOJ is holding its monetary policy, our meeting on 21st and 22nd September. Markets expect another status quo rate decision, though markets don't totally rule out a possibility that the BOJ will adjust forward guidance in a less dovish direction. Regarding a potential adjustment to the forward guidance, the most likely case would be a removing the language on a possible rate cut, while the effectiveness of this expectation control would not be so powerful, it would allow the authorities to buy some time, and markets think it's too early for the BOJ to enter the rate hike, as Governor Karoda very clearly denied any near-term rate hikes by the bank at his press conference in July. From a technical perspective, potential double top here on the daily timeframe, so I look to be sure, so I've only moved now through that 142.60, looking for a three-way direct to move down into our ascending trendline support and high-volume node, 130 for 80s. At this stage, any push higher back into, take out the prior cycle highs here, test into this ascending trendline resistance in this broadening top pattern, any move above 146, I'd certainly be looking to fade as long as we maintain momentum divergence. We're only out of data, and next week, we are looking down under in Australia. Let's see what we've got on deck there. Monday, the RBA head of domestic markets, Kearns is speaking at an AFR property summit, and then heading to Tuesday, we get the RBA minutes. Is it time for the pace of rate hikes to moderate rate from here, as has been suggested by Governor Low. Then on Wednesday, we get the RBA deputy governor speaking, Bullock speaking to Bloomberg on Wednesday. We also get Westback leading index, six-month growth rate looks to set to weaken there. Thursday, it's a public holiday in Australia, sorry, and that rounds out the data of note next week. So from a technical perspective, Ozzie sold off from that high volume note that we were anticipating. Now I'm looking for this, we're still this elusive 6640 test, we came within 30 pips of it last week. I'm looking for that to set up, maintain some momentum divergence, watch for bullish reversal patterns to reengage on the long side, looking for this test up into the 69 and the descending trendline resistance. Just to round things out, let's check in, take a weekend look at Bitcoin. Obviously, weakened last week with that CPI print and we're sitting now on the high volume note here just above 19,900, quiet session this weekend, but what we're anticipating now is any break, on a closing basis, any break of 17,800, I'm looking to engage on the short side and we are targeting this quality objective versus its major swing structure ABC quality objective down to 12,185 and that concludes the weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 19th of September. As always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.