 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and Numberfire.com as we're taking a look ahead at week seven of the NFL with Gil Alexander of Vecen breaking down his favorite bets on the board for week seven and a little bit of World Series talk in there as well My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com Joined here as always by Ed Fang you can find his work over at thepowerrank.com and find him on Twitter at the power rank Ed For the people watching on the YouTube version of the show You they can see you're wearing a Michigan Wolverines pretty snazzy little shirt here and I kind of want one I like it. It looks fly. Yeah, this was the Harbaugh shirt a couple years ago I don't he's not still wearing it, but like he wearing khakis to I'm not wearing khakis I feel like you got to admit that if you're gonna go with the Harbaugh look you got to go full Harbaugh Well, it's not exactly Fashionable to go around with the Harbaugh look in Ann Arbor this couple of weeks But but yeah one of the obvious one reason I wore this was because Michigan has a pretty big game And but the other reason I wore this is because it's black and I'm a little sad Jim Oh, no, I'm sad for the benching of your boy Marcus Mariota my son my darling son He's not even gonna get he's not even gonna chart out there at the beginning against the Chargers this week Yeah, I feel like he may get into the game. I would not be surprised. I feel like he may get into the game So but my covering the future was almost Chargers plus two I decided against it because I like my other one more just because it's more of a fun game to Talk about but sure my boy my darling boy Marcus people have been harsh to my son on Twitter He is struggled. Let's just struggle clear the man is struggle. What has Mario to struggle with he's taken a lot of sacks what does Ryan Tannehill struggle with he takes a lot of sacks and For some reason the Chargers were getting healthier potentially getting a left tackle back this week are two-point favor or two-point dogs Right, I find that very confusing personally because I think that mark that Ryan Tannehill is at best parallel to Marcus Mariota And right more likely at slight downgrade Yes, so I find it very interesting. I agree with that I thought about talking about talking about Chargers plus two for covering the future as well I decided against it because there's another game. I like better Same way like there, but I did talk about it on Guilds podcast earlier today and one thing I found interesting. I've been getting into the pro football focus grades and You know Tannehill graded out really well for a number of years in his career in Miami Which is a little bit surprising to me because you never really saw the results there and then just fell off a cliff last year So it was a you know He was in the 70 at least the 70 average is probably in the 60s and then was a 45 last year. Yeah, so Doesn't give you much confidence in what he might do on the field on Sunday from an advanced numbers perspective I'm trying to pull us up right now because I actually had this up because I was comparing the two guys Because I wanted to justify my hatred of Ryan Tannehill You gotta do it. There was a season in which Tannehill actually had 51.76 passing that expected points and that would have been back in 2014 I believe which means that when you adjust for error, that's not a bad number So I guess I'm not as surprised but that he had Good years But he's also with 31 I believe he is Not really today's NFL, right? And I think that my assumption would be that he'd be a slight downgrade again I'm a hopeless Mario to Truth or to my detriment It's not gone. Well this year. We'll put it that way But I think the Chargers plus two is probably the way out and go in that one for sure But I think that the morning black is very appropriate. So thank you Ed for your support in this time of need that I have We're gonna bring on Gil Alexander. You can find him on Twitter at beating the book We're gonna talk about week eight of the NFL get a little bit of world serious talk in there talk about his thoughts on the Washington Nationals and Gil is a host of a numbers game on vison And he also has a beating the book podcast and he has a he had an interesting guest on that podcast this week Yeah, that would be me What yeah, we actually had a fun time we they they were they were They were talking about my academic credentials and the Stanford PhD and I was like, you know Stanford B's PhD is kind of like organic food, you know, it's really nice to have the label But it doesn't guarantee the quality inside I'm not stand for this slander of yourself on our podcast I think I'm just fine You're talking more broadly, okay, okay. Yeah, all right. Well, I will let it fly then I know nothing of this But you know better than I do so I'll let it fly. We also an Edward e-gross speaking to smart guys We had Edward e-gross on the show yesterday to preview week eight at college football We talked Penn State, Michigan speaking of that shirt again Utah against Arizona State Baylor against Oklahoma State and more there if you want to find Edward's thoughts on week eight Check out covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find it on Apple podcast spotify stitcher Google play wherever you get your podcast you can find it and while you're there Please subscribe rate and review the podcast that helps out a ton So thank you to those of you who have done so already and before bringing gill to break down week seven of the NFL We got to go back to last week. We talked to Rob Pazzola about the NFL and go back through what we discussed on that podcast Covering the past Last week on covering the spread we had Rob Pazzola as mentioned you can find Rob on Twitter at Rob Pazzola and He mentioned Kansas City minus four against the Texans and the Texans won that game out, right? There were some questionable officiating in that game which annoyed me as a DFS player But the Texans did win that game Rob and I both had the Rams minus three and a half against the 49ers And as you are probably aware didn't go so hot there I also had the under on that game and that under did hit But whoo Rams minus three and a half went up in flames. So my bad there Rob mentioned that he wanted the Jaguars minus one against the Saints Saints won that one outright Teddy two gloves Getting the job done. I guess most of that Saints defense though I mentioned the Eagles plus three the Vikings won that game. I think the Wanted to stay away from that game. No, you had that Martin stayed away from that game I think the Vikings might just be like a stay away from me the instant it might be with just what we've seen on them It's such a hard team to figure out the defense Might be respectable Kirk Cousins. I really don't know the underlying metrics suggested It was a much closer game than the final score indicated. Yeah, but still a loss and Like it's it's usually the Titans the team that are the stay away from me from a betting perspective It might be the Vikings like it's a good team that can have really bad games I think that's like that's what the Titans were like last year near before that. I think that's the Vikings this year I'm really hesitant to take a look at them the Jets. I had them plus seven and a half against the Cowboys Sam Darnold lit it up Mono free tossing balls across the yard a Really kind of a tough week across the board underdogs cleaned up here But I think that it was just it was a rough week across the board. Yeah, yeah, absolutely I mean my number is like a game the Monday night game Green Bay I think minus three and a half it's not not something that made sense to me at home and then right a lot of things happen That game it was a very interesting game to discuss because a lot of the narrative was that Green Bay You know Detroit got screwed and they certainly did with some of the roughing calls But the yardage the yardage totals way in in Green Bay's favor. I had a couple of really costly turnovers In that game and then still could have covered if Williams just goes into end zone for touchdown I was gonna get the smart play not to but Well, and it was it was not just the the you know people focused on the pennies penalties Like you said, but they also had a drop touchdown by Aaron Jones. I had a drop touchdown by Jimmy Graham they had a Drop ball near the end zone by Darius Shepard that was picked off and he would not have been playing had Ronald Allison and Marquez Valdez scambling not gotten hurt basically it was Aaron Rodgers so into undrafted dudes and Still getting a win Like if you don't have the injuries to Allison and MvS in that game It's probably not a two-point game and that Jamal Williams kneel down probably doesn't matter So I think that your numbers liking them minus three and a half made sense Yeah, I think it made sense as well Really interested in Jimmy Graham. I mean he does not look like a football player out there to me anymore it's so I thought that last year and I Benefited from it, you know thinking that he was washed and then I watched week one this year And he looked really spry and I was like, oh man I've made some mistakes because I was not in on Jimmy Graham for this year and he looked kind of good But he's looked terrible ever since then. Yeah Yeah, it's tough to see because I mean he was so dynamic earlier in his career and right It's just not anymore. Did he tear both his patellar tendons when he was with Seattle or is it just one? I can't remember. I I think it was just one But that's such a tough injury to come back from I think we're Seeing the effects of that the past couple years, but Green Bay. They're a pretty good team I want to see them at full health because I think they'd be very interesting But they've been fine even without that so credit to them because that's that's crazy tough To do we're gonna bring in Gill in just one second But first if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sports book and place your first bet today If you lose Fandall will give you a refund up to $500 in site credit Visit sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey Pennsylvania or West Virginia or soon Indiana gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's bring in Gil Alexander now find him on Twitter at beating the book again You can find him on a numbers game on visa and and also on the beating the book podcast Let's bring in Gil now to break down week seven of the NFL Covering the present Let's bring on Gil Alexander here to covering the spread Gil. It's fun to have you back on here today. How you doing? I'm doing very well. Thanks for having me on guys. I appreciate it Absolutely, it's a pleasure to have you here because not only can we talk football which we will but we also talk a little baseball with you Because it's World Series time We don't know who's gonna be the ale representative yet But the nationals have already advanced to their first world series and they're gonna face you to the Astros the Yankees and the American League It's either but it's basically been the Astros and the Dodgers all year long obviously no Dodgers But the Yankees probably grading out a little better than the nationals So what number would you need to get on this nationals team? In order to actually bet them whether it be versus the Yankees or the Astros Well, I am set up with the Astros for For futures to win it all plus 350 right after the cranky trade at the trade deadline Wow, so it might not take as big a number as others I will just hedge away right and just set myself up But I think that the true value here on the nationals is right around For me, it's about plus 140 ish plus 150 ish I think if it's the Astros little higher on the bang for your buck I have the nationals to beat the Dodgers plus 196 in the NLDS I thought they're a lot. I think they're live in every series gym to be quite honest with you as long as they have that pitching they have a puncher's chance and They listen as long as they can get that starting pitching to do what it's supposed to do and minimize their bullpen Yeah, they are in this and I think the sort of dirty little secret right now people like to talk about the fact that the Cardinals weren't a hitting drought the Astros are in a bit of a hitting drought as we do this sort of three games in ALCS So that's gonna be interesting to see how that plays out. Obviously the Yankees weakness is the starting pitching But I do think getting Tanaka with a rain out here and possibly You know the best would be for another rain out figuring out how to get them back for game seven Right, but I would I would say to answer your question for me It would be the nationals plus you know depending on who it is a little higher for the Astros But right around plus 150 in that pocket It's kind of funny how hitting droughts tend to get extended when you face Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg and apparently Anibal Sanchez too Because apparently he is also in that same realm, which I shouldn't be as surprised about he wasn't that bad this year But like it's still it's still it still Boggles my mind at times to when he pitches as well as he has recently. Yeah Well, he's had a weird career, right? He was really good at Detroit for a period Yep, really bad Well, he was good in Detroit, but unlucky because he like had these good peripheral stats But his ERA would always be high because the Detroit defense was just trashed it ruined him I'm like, okay, this guy's got talent and all of a sudden it flipped and it was very weird But like the last two years ever since like May of last year. He's been sneaky pretty good Sneaky pretty good. And you know what him and Para have been like a real shot in the arm. It's not analytics based at all, right But para coming over there has been a real it's really seemed to have brought the team together I think the you know an interesting question too, which for for betters has to be sort of assessed is is the ball different? This postseason right like is it is all of a sudden that the juice balls gone away? I spoke with Ben Lindbergh from the ringer a little bit this morning He was sort of working on a story trying to corroborate from a gambling standpoint By the way, I might not that maybe I shouldn't be talking about No, I'm too far in already guys But you know, he wanted to know from a gambling perspective if I had heard anything And the answer is no, I mean I'd love to give him a sexy story, right? But I hadn't heard anything but I do know some serious baseball betters who are convinced that the ball is different And you know, maybe not a game like game for tonight where the wind is supposed to blow out But that's something to keep in mind for people who are assessing totals I follow astrophysicists who are convinced of the same thing. So it's not just, you know, betters It's astrophysicists people who study drag are convinced of the same thing at that there So I don't think it's that that far-fetched. Yeah, major league baseball, of course denying any knowledge Yeah, that's interesting. Well, go let's get on to the NFL We had a couple teams that we thought we're gonna be pretty good early this preseason But they've kind of hit a rough patch talking about the chiefs in the Rams What are you thinking about these two teams going forward? You know the Rams, I think Have the Rams have issued short term and long term short term. Somebody's got to figure out that offensive line Long-term I have said this for a while now and it made sort of people's heads explode when I said it on On a numbers game on a visa I always thought Jared golf should be the first experiment of a guy who should play on a rookie contract And then they should try to recycle the quarterback like Sean McVeigh is that good as a quarterback whisper And I don't think Jared golf is that super talented That they should try that because you can only win a Super Bowl with a Hall of Fame quarterback or a quarterback on a rookie Deal who's overperforming and then spend your your resources allocate your resources elsewhere a la Russell Wilson They didn't decide to do that. Obviously they're paying Jared golf under 34 million 110 million guaranteed And I just think they have salary cap problems moving forward I have so much money tied up to him into Todd Gurley who was on load management for sure And now with Jalen Ramsey, so I don't know about the Rams the chiefs You know, look that defense is worse than it was last year that defense is a sieve right now I think the offense will score points left and right like they always do I think they'll get it together. I think they're a playoff team for sure, right But they do need to fix that defense because they are not a Super Bowl contender The way that defense is playing right now And the good thing with the chiefs is they should get their the left side of their offensive line is out right now But they'll be back not too far down the road So fixable things for them with the Rams like they just lost a left guard to a torn ACL He wasn't good But they traded for Austin Corbett from the Browns and then they've got issues that right guard too So because you are generally pessimistic about the Rams Are you inclined to continue to fade them as we get deeper into the season? Yeah, I mean it all depends obviously per game what the line is But I had the Niners before the season to win the NFC West. I'm feeling very good about myself Plus 395 And I'll tell you that performance against the Rams last week was Pretty spectacular That defense flies around the field. I had an in game on the on the Niners at minus six and a half They were only up 13. I could have been backdoor the whole way through And the Rams just could not do anything couldn't do anything about it. They got stoned time and time again The only thing obviously that concerns me is Russell Wilson is capable of all kinds of magic But yeah, as far as the Rams are concerned, I like Sean McVeigh, but I'm not bullish about that team right now And the weather only gets colder and I will never forget Jared golf's expression In that prime time game in Chicago last year when it was 32 degrees and he acted like it was 30 below And I never forgot that. I'm like, that's a little kid. This guy playing in clement weather. He's a california kid Stuff like that matters to me late in the late in the season. So yeah, just generally speaking. I am not bullish on the Rams All right, let's have you do a couple games here for week number seven here with gill starting off with the A big NFC north battle between the vikings and the lions vikings a one-point favorite The total here is at 46 points and These are two of the teams honestly gill that i'm having the hardest time figuring out especially the vikings I have no read on them at all So which version of the vikings do you expect we'll see going forward or is it just a week by week thing with them? I think the better version of the vikings. Like I think that offense is really good I think they have parts on defense. I'm a redskins fan as Ed would tell you not a ritzkins fan But I was I was born to raise the redskins guy. So I am sort of innately drawn to watching all their games So I've seen more Kirk Cousins snaps in his career than maybe any human being alive That's not a redskins fan and I kind of have that feeling of Kirk Cousins that I always have which is can put up stats But here you go Minnesota vikings for 84 million dollars You're going to get a lot of poor decision making laden games and I still worry about that with him Um, I have them winning the division before the season started. I still think they're the best team in that division You know unless erin rogers does superhuman things like he did on money night By the way, that was the thing that I think got lost and all that refereeing cluster Job on money night is that erin rogers made passes that defied human comprehension in that game But I like the vikings long term They do have a tendency to let you down and then detroit who over there play against this weekend God, I mean They they had no business losing that game monday They squandered a game against arizona earlier in the year They end up two two and one the last place in their division But this is one of these games if you're going to take the next step detroit You have to win this game. It's at home. You've got them. This is a game. You have to win to take the next step I would say the same thing for minnesota minnesota if you're the team that I believe you are This is a game. You must win. Um, it's not a game. I will bet is basically what i'm trying to say right But I do I do expect big things from the vikings moving forward okay Excellent, so we also have ravens at uh seahawks the seahawks are three and a half point favorite Uh, the total is at 49. Uh, what is your take on this game? Uh, I think that total is a little low. You and I had talked about it a little bit on The megapod earlier today on the beating the book podcast. I think the total is a little low It is a game that I wanted to wait for seattle to come down to three I believe it's three correct me if i'm wrong across the board now. Is that true? three with I am looking right now. It is three and a half still a fandal sports book So they're not budging But it's three and a half plus 110. So yeah, there you go I think you might be able to not to not to say that people bet anywhere besides fandal jim But I think you might be able to find a three in some spots Uh, and maybe even the fandal number comes to three as you're saying it's uh, plus 110 at three and a half um I think the ravens though can run through that seattle defense And it is not, you know, I have to pick five games for circle Those of us who are in these contests have to pick five games. This was one I do a show at the beginning of the uh, we called guessing lines, which is a tribute to the old stardust show Uh, and I try to see what I would think the line would be what it ends up being and try to find value in that process and I was surprised that You know, this was as low as it was But it's one of those that as the week has worn on i'm like, yeah, I don't know how comfortable I feel about it I think I like the over better than I do either side Okay So later in the show, I'm gonna talk about the under in this game So pitch me on the over what pushes you toward is it just that I think that the defenses are bad So I think that that's a good reason. Is that the main reason for you a deep dive analysis Yeah, I believe the defenses are bad. Yes, perfect. Yeah, my numbers seem the same way Really what it comes down to and I think lemar jackson Look, see I love trouble with the run lemar jackson. I mean last week when he set the record first guy 150 yards rushing and yeah, however many yards passing it was Forgive me for not remembering and I think rustle wilson is just capable of of matriculating the ball down the field Up and down against the raven. So yeah over to me and I think we're talking about on the show this morning I think that number goes up between now and game time So if you like we over get it now if you like the under I'd wait Perfect makes sense. I like it. All right, cool I'll move on here to the eagles against the cowboys We got the cowboys minus three here and that one is stagnant there. The total has gone down in this game It was 49 and a half. It's now 48 and a half Interesting game here because the cowboys have had some impactful injuries, but tyron smith and lyle collins returned to practice on thursday What's your level of concern around the cowboys entry in this game? Uh, pretty high. I mean what I think if you know look at that we we can you know, I'm sure everybody knows They've been the dolphins the giants and the redskins So there are your three wins They have a coach in jason garrett. Look, I think if you if you handicap one thing in the nfl If you could only handicap by one characteristic Power ranking coaches might be a wonderful way to do it and you have doug peterson You have jason garrett, you know kellen moore being his offensive coordinator. I have not been that impressed by kellen moore Uh, and I think doug peterson doug peterson by the way who sort of guaranteed victory already This week said we're we're winning this football game I guess that this line would be two and a half it opened at three I didn't really see any justification why the cowboy should be full three-point favorites in this game I think it's two and a half now or it's creeping at two and a half Um, so I don't obviously like the eagles as much at that number clearly not as much The the issue I have with the eagles and the eagles I had before the season started is the team to make the super bowl I am kind of tired of this Thing with the eagles where they're always banged up like at some point We got to stop using that excuse with the same. Why are they never completely healthy? Um, so I like the eagles I like the eagles more in a tease quite frankly tease them through the three in the the uh seven make it eight and a half Um, but if you can find the three out there, I might take a flyer on the eagles I'm I just don't have any confidence in the uh dallas cowboys right now despite having their their linemen back The eagles are plus three, but it's minus 130. So i'm guessing that that number you'd probably be staying away and looking elsewhere Yeah, I'll use the eagles probably in a tease. I don't like it's the NFC ease game Um, anything can happen the three is kind of a sort of default number that's used but these seems always Whether it's the giants of the cowboys the eagles and the giants There's always these guys always seem to play in like a sunday night situation right um And strange things happen, but given you know if you put if you if you made me pick I take the eagles. I take the points eagles in a tease is probably how I'll play this Excellent gila. Are there any other bets uh for week seven that you are interested in? Yes, sir. There is That was that for enthusiasm San Francisco 49ers man San Francisco 49ers are now to me inexplicably they've gone from a 10 point favorite to a nine and a half point favorite at the Washington Redskins You will not get rich betting road favorites like that near double digit favorites in the national football league Um, but I don't know how the redskins score against this team I think the niners are really good Uh, and I think games that they barely won. Who was that game against? Was it uh, Pittsburgh where they were like minus three in turnovers. They still minus five. I think yeah Yeah, well, I think they I think they turned the ball over four times. Right, right, right? Yeah, they were actually minus three at the end because I think it was a garbage turnover. Yeah We might be right, but basically speaking they were minus four um I think that they go up and down the field against the redskins I'm not sure if it's case kinam now or dwayne haskins Apparently dwayne haskins is taking some first team reps if it's dwayne haskins. This should be way over nine I just don't think he and like I don't think there's any shame in it. He just doesn't appear to be ready At least that's the buzz deal with um, but even if it's case kinam The redskins were two of 14 on third downs against the dolphins And while third down conversion rate is volatile Um, again, let me repeat that was against the dolphins and I don't know that again. I I really feel strong about this niners defense Um, I would take the niners. I would give the points and the other one that I really like Is the thursday night game. I like the chiefs minus three And um, you know for for much of the same reason why I liked him last week I think it's a bit of an overreaction It didn't work out well against the texas when the chiefs were giving four But there was a real strange sort of uh sequence at the end of the first half But this is one of those games where you bet and you have to be prepared to lose I'm taking the chiefs minus three against vic fangio Two weeks ago. I was saying this to ed and and the crew on the podcast this morning Two weeks ago one team was four and oh the other was on four And if I had said to you hey two weeks from now guys and these two teams play on thursday night The chiefs are only going to be three point favorites You would have immediately said did patrick mohomes get hurt? Otherwise you would never believe his line. So that's the other one I really like a lot and denver beat the chargers on the road Which is not really a road game and they beat the titans at home. So what's the value in those two wins? Uh, not very impressive, right? Well, they're better than two losses. That's true. So they've been racking up before That's fine point ed. It's a fine point. Absolutely. Well, that is gill alexander fight him on twitter At beating the book gill. I know you have a busy schedule each day So I want to thank you for swinging them by spreading some knowledge for week seven of the nfl I appreciate it. Good luck with that and your world series and playoff bets and hopefully we'll talk to you again soon Jim ed. Thank you guys very much. I so appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you Covering the future Big thank you once again to gill alexander for swinging by and talking about week seven of the nfl And ed we've actually talked about the 49ers a couple of times in this podcast You were an early buyer in them and I agree. I think minus nine and a half against this washington team is pretty attractive They're they seem really good Yeah, it's an interesting game for me because my number is more like six or seven which I think is just kind of a reflection of You know, my model isn't catching up to san francisco so early and and probably our our Expectations are a little bit too high now just based on what what they did to the rams last week Yeah, so that's a game where Yeah, I mean, I mean it's a pass for me But I definitely see the excitement And I think that it also shows a value in your adjusted success rate model because that's the reason you were buying into the 49ers And in the nfl we have to we have to Buy into small samples because the full season is not a large sample And your numbers peg them as being a good team after they had played just three games So I think it kind of validates the value in looking at stuff like that Yeah, absolutely. I appreciate appreciate you're mentioning that and and like another team that was like pretty high up there Early in the season as well was tampa bay But that was a team in which you looked at and you're like, yeah Well, their defensive numbers look really good, but they're playing a bunch of first and second year guys in the secondary How much is that gonna how long is that gonna last right and and and we haven't seen that last so Uh, oh is you know, the numbers are great Still need to understand The that it's small sample size Right, even at this point in the season and and just be just be careful in our analysis Right, they can lead you to the right down the right path You have to decide if that's a path you actually want to take In the case of the 49ers, it was a path you wanted to take and that's worked out well so far And and I always preach the searching go ahead Oh, sorry Can I just wanted to bring up one thing because uh, gill was talking about how dwayne haskins was taking first team reps Yeah, and one of the things that I was telling about earlier when we recorded his podcast Was what dr. Eric eager was telling us. Yeah, you know when they Dwayne haskins in college. They weren't particularly impressed. It was more because Uh, you know a lot of them should be completed. There's Campbell Yeah, we're just like crossing routes and wheel routes and and stuff that went a long way Which went a long way to the explosiveness of the Ohio State offense But I don't think he graded out as I think he said he didn't grade out as well in long nfl type throws And so so I think that's part of uh, gill was obviously as a reskins guy was not so happy that I was telling him that And maybe he's not so happy that the haskins might get some snaps this weekend But but something I wanted to bring up because I thought that was um, what eric eager said was was fascinating and I think short term it's smart to be The wary of haskins because he had 15 games that at least 10 past attempts in college and That's unprecedented for a first round pick and to have him start in year one That's pretty scary. Like Mitchell turbisky was ragged on for his lack of experience coming out of college and that's bor out Um, he struggled early on and has struggled since too, uh, but haskins has a similar thing He was better in college than turbisky was so I liked him more than I like turbisky coming out But that's something to keep in mind especially early on for haskins is that he could have a slower transition Well, absolutely and haskins isn't the athlete that like a turbisky is no exactly other guys too So he doesn't bring that to the table either Right and that's how josh alan's been able to master some of his stuff is he's crazy athletic He can scramble haskins doesn't have that and I agree that's a good thing to point out as well So I think it's gonna be case keen on this week It seems like that was because of a foot injury that that haskins was getting the reps But once haskins does get a second chance, I think it would make sense to be a little bit wary of betting on Washington We were talking with gill about trying to find good numbers elsewhere And ed and I always preach searching for the best value and betting on gains Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have cooked up over at number fire dot com Odds fire is a premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s Market compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler And again that does have odds for non fan dual markets So I would check that out for sure when you're betting in regulated markets and let's move now to covering the future What do you got for week seven at the nfl? Yeah, I'm a little I'm kind of wondering if this is the same one you might have to just given our conversation earlier I'm going to talk about houston plus one at indy. Okay, cool. I'm not I'm not there All right Well, at least we'll have different games to talk about yes I feel like this line is an overreaction to what indy and aplis did the last time they took the football field Against kansas city. They were down three starters on the defense Yeah, somehow managed to hold down kansas city's offense Uh, and I just don't think lightning strikes twice For this defense. It is not a very good unit When I look at my adjusted success rate, even with the performance against kansas city They're 16th in past defense 26th in in run defense And let's not forget like they still have the same injury issues Bleak hooker the safety is out derris liner the linebacker And uh clicking gathers the safety uh are both dealing with concussions and are listed as questionable right now So there's still potentially those injury issues on the colts defense The colts offense is kind of what you expect without andrew luck. Uh, they're 27th when I look at success rate on passing Adjusted for who you played. Uh, but they are first behind a great offensive line in in russia offense So probably not the best way to match up with houston houston has a pretty good run defense their 10th when I look at the adjusted success rate I've also been looking at uh pff grades and a defensive tackle a dj reader with houston grades out as a 90 in in run defense So the colts are going to find it a lot more difficult to run the ball against houston than they did last time out against kansas city Who was pretty much the worst run defense in the nfl? So with all those things being said, uh, I think my number Actually favors you houston a little bit on the road here So I definitely like houston plus one in this game interesting and as far as the indy offense goes I agree that they Are not the best passing offense, but they Are one of the teams. I try not to look at home road splits very much because there is so much noise You're taking an already small sample and making it smaller But the home road splits for indy are drastic and I think that they are significant because they play their home games indoors And when they go on the road What they've done this year is they've turned into this crazy run first offense when they were at home and had ty hilton They've done that for one game this year that was in week three They threw 66 of the time on first and second down the first half of that game outside of that They're about 53 uh for the full season. So but they do have ty hilton here I think they're going to be more pass heavy than they have been So I think if I were to take a lean on this game, I might be more okay with the over On 47 because I expect them to be more pass heavy than they've been so far this year But I don't have any read on on the line here. So you want houston plus one, correct? Yep Okay, so houston plus one is for ed I want to go back to that game we were talking about with gill Between the seahawks and the ravens and I want to sell them on me sell me on the over because I actually like the under here It sounds like your numbers like the over too So I will give my case and then I want to hear yours because it's a fun game and I do want to watch it But I don't think it gets to 49 points because both of these teams are super run heavy The way I want to look at this is by looking at what teams do on first and second down in the first halves of games because that's where You know the score is not an issue It's just what they want to do basically and the seahawks rank 30th and pass rate in that situation The ravens are 31st besting only the minnesota vikings so 30th and 31st between these two teams Because of that the ravens are 21st in situation neutral pace. That is according to football outsiders the seahawks are 26th And I agree with gill both these defenses are overrated and I think that that is my biggest concern with betting the under on this game Is I think both these defenses are pretty trashy and the perception is that they're good But it's all about both offenses being run heavy and being relatively slow And if this game stays closed, which is not a given I think it's going to hit the under But the problem is if the seahawks get an early lead we'll get lamar jackson throwing a bit more That he's been good enough where I think that could lead to and over there And if the ravens get a lead it's going to go over because rustle wilson having to throw Is going to lead to and over so I think that's probably why Um smart people are all in the over here I just think that this game I expected to stay close and if it stays close I think it's going to be a very slow game. So at 49 I like it I think that gills probably right where you could wait on this one I did open a 50 and a half and has come down to 49 But I believe 80 percent of the money is on the over according to odds fire. I checked this earlier today So you can probably wait if you want to get that if you agree with me and think that the under is good But I would take the under under 49 right now. So ed that's where I am What pushes your numbers to prefer the over here and how how over is it? Yeah, I mean, uh, see my number is, uh, 51 Okay Uh, wait, hold on. Let me let me do it. Yeah 51. Okay, and I mean with with the way the seahawks team has evolved it I mean rustle wilson has been so good, which is not unexpected because right a very good quarterback And we had a lot of questions about the defense. They added to davian clowny That's clearly a good thing. But, you know, I still just don't have a ton of faith And then when you look at the numbers for baltimore, it's kind of the same story You know the the offense is just way more efficient than the defense has been so far this season So when you look at those efficiency things, uh, it just points to a lot of points in this game There's obviously a lot of game situations that could could could matter You know if if like you said if the ravens get out to a big lead, you know rustles going to be throwing and Going to be running around there inviting the sacks and then Chucking it Right into the hands of his receivers way downfield. So because that's just what he does That's well, I mean he's he's been particularly good this year. Yeah. Yeah, he's nuts It that's why I said I want to watch this game because I love watching lemar jackson too It's not always as pretty passing but like he can connect deep I mean, I mean, I feel like I mean, I I I feel like I owe Evan a silver apology for doubting his Love of lemar jackson earlier this preseason because I looked at it. I was like Come on man. Like so, you know And I actually uh know a guy that was at ravens camp. Yeah who backed us up He's like, yeah, I mean lemar jackson is what he is as a passer Like he hasn't really improved don't expect him to make touch passes And then he comes out and he's throwing all these touch passes, right And and he's really rocking it and and also As as a player like he Has looked more athletic than I think a lot of these athletic quarterbacks in college Look in the nfl. Um, he's making plays, uh, that I I just kind of haven't seen in a long time as well So Yeah, I mean he's been good. Will he regress maybe sure but until then I owe Evan an apology for doubting him I don't think I did publicly There was a different part of that conversation that stuck with me Evan mentioned our bias towards lowlights where when we see a terrible pass We're going to overreact to that terrible pass and It has made me Hesitant to jump ship on baker mayfield This year because we've seen a lot of terrible passes from baker mayfield And that can lead to a bias against them. We've seen terrible passes from tom brady And the every quarter and I think that what I picked up on since talking to Evan is that Every quarterback makes passes that makes them look terrible But what do they do over the larger sample the advanced metrics say that they're good If the advanced metrics say they're good I'm inclined to believe they're good because every quarterback is going to look bad at one point or another and I think that just having That voice in my mind, you know with Evan saying that we overreact to lowlights. I think it's made me More Hesitant to overreact to those things. I think that's been very valuable for me this year Yeah, and everyone in nan arbor knows about that too because there's been a lot of lowlights with with shea patterson this year And yet somehow when I look at uh my adjusted yards for pass attempts, you know michigan's 43rd Yeah, which given how they started is is pretty good. Well, what's your thoughts on that penn state game? We didn't talk about that one with you yesterday. Uh, it's plus nine for michigan. What are your thoughts there? You don't have to give like a pick, uh, but I don't I mean, I've had a pretty strong opinion on some michigan sides this year I think I've been on the right side of most of them. Definitely not the wisconsin one But my number has it at eight It's kind of like a no play for me. Um, I mean, I feel like there's a lot of different outcomes if I mean this game hasn't been close in the last three years on either side The home team is just kind of obliterated the other team But but good football teams on both sides I I just don't think that's going to happen again. I think this can be close I mean, obviously you have to side with penn state to win this game Sure, but then kind of the remarkable fact Is uh, I read somewhere if michigan wins this they're going to be in the driver's seat for the college football playoff Which is a true yet remarkably odd statement given how their season has gone I didn't even think about that like that thought to me is no one in an arbor has but it is a true statement They'll be six and one with their only loss to another team That is in is in serious contention for the playoff and despite how they've looked in some of these games They will be in contention and then if they weren't again at Notre Dame at home the next week Huh, I mean, they're gonna be pretty, you know, and it's it's one of these things where the human polls And the numbers all had michigan in the teams somewhere right and that's exactly where they're Going to be given that you know, they started in the top five Disappointed not I have very have disappointed But yet we know to make the most accurate college football predictions You kind of have to have some balance between what we've seen and what we expected in the preseason So it yeah, I mean there's a lot riding on the game. Um, you know, I mean only a couple turnovers You know in the right direction from michigan to maybe pull off the upset the big tense fun this year I like this. This is fun. Uh, we were talking with edward yesterday about how like they could get to in the playoff and like Big 10 football is gross a lot of times, but it can be really fun when it's good Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. I mean, I think we're going to see ohio state and wisconsin play twice Right, which would be really actually be twice within like a couple weeks, wouldn't it? I don't know when that right. Oh, no, they play wisconsin next week. I think is that next week I think it's next week. Yeah, so That'll be fun. So if they speak those games and somehow things break, right, oklahoma loses a couple games Oregon loses a couple games This can be fun. Clemson loses one game and people realize how terrible their schedule was Yeah, it could be it'll be interesting. I think we have a couple weeks until that first Yeah playoff committee rankings come out And uh, then I'll be able to run some numbers and and put some probabilities behind these things Which will be which will be good. Well, now I'm excited for next week's show So we can talk about that ohio state versus wisconsin game to make sure you get that one right as it goes up Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts I listen on spotify. You can listen on out podcasts Stitcher the google play store wherever you get your podcasts You can find it and make sure you rate and review and subscribe to the podcast as well Ed anything big popping for you this weekend over at the power rank Yeah, I have whalecapper on the football analytics show It's I think you guys who have listened to whalecapper knows like just by the way he talks like This guy knows what he's talking about. Yeah, and when he came on my podcast, we got a little bit into the technical details Not too much, but I'm very interested like a lot of People who model games just try to get the average right so we try to get a prediction for You know what the spread should be in seahawks versus ravens But he actually looks at the variance in teams play and we talked a lot about that Because that's important in assigning a probability that a team is going to cover Right. So just just a great conversation You know different from what we've had on this podcast because it wasn't just looking at games and right in fact I didn't ask him about any game Games did come up that he liked for this week So obviously if you're interested in that go listen for that as well But just a really fun conversation with uh with whalecapper and you can get that at the football analytics show Wherever you get your podcast. Well, I gotta listen now. It's like near the end I hear his thoughts on food and all my god. I was told so I gotta listen for that Well, I mean, this is the sec is this his second time On the pod and like I usually ask people about food the first one Yeah, so I when I prepare for these things I go back and I listen to what I ask them Because I don't double things up. I was like, oh, I didn't ask him about food and you know Who knows where that's gonna lead like some of my guests are like I'm not a foodie. I like to eat at home, you know, which is fun But it was very clear as soon as I asked him that that we were both very into food and mexican in particular Okay, and when you just get like kind of two dogs like Going at the same tip on steak and really excited about That it was it was a lot of fun. All right. Well, I'm gonna go listen to that now So go find ed's work over at the power rank. You can find the podcast So it's looking by searching for the football analytics show you can find it on twitter at the power rank I am at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s. You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We also have our dfs preview week seven already up with myself and brandy gdulla breaking down our favorite plays On the main slate big. Thank you to calvin thea ball for running the video side of things for today As always cal nice to have you back. Thank you for chopping those things up for the atman dual twitter account And we'll talk to you all again next week. Thank you everyone for tuning in Good luck with your bets both for college football and for the nfl and we'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network