 Hey, what's up guys? This is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade out of the year's list. Hope everybody had a wonderful trading week. Marco was a little bit slow last week. I feel like the list wasn't really up to par with what we usually put out. Marco was just a little bit slow, so I'm hoping this week will be a little bit better. We do only have three setups this week just because we have a lot of data coming out. Most importantly, the CPI is coming out Wednesday. We're going to keep the list brief just because I really didn't see too much that I liked in the first place. Also, I'm probably not going to open any swing trades or anything until the CPI data is over with. You do have a couple of days up to Wednesday if you want to catch a swing trade, but right now I already do have some swing trades open, so I'm just going to hang on to those. I don't plan on opening anything new. My list is just a little bit brief this time, but we'll go ahead and get into the economic calendar here. You can see Monday, we do have wholesale inventories at 10 a.m. Tuesday, we do have some Fed speakers here. You can see we got Fed President, who will be speaking. We have Fed President, Harker speaking. We also have Minneapolis Fed President, Cash Car speaking as well. Two of these are pretty much after hours though, so I would view these as kind of non-events. I'm honestly not even sure about Ghoulsby either. I've never really seen him move the market, he or she, whoever they are. Wednesday, most important day. We have the Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI year-over-year, Core CPI year-over-year. Also the Richmond Fed, President Barken speaking. Fed Dolly also speaking. And then, oh, we even have the minutes of the FOMC meeting from the last meeting, so that can definitely be a market mover. So Wednesday is probably going to be insane. We have the CPI and we have the FOMC minutes, so we'll get a hint into what they were thinking and why they came to the decision of raising .25 basis points. Might see some stuff in black and white that we didn't see during the press conference or the actual meeting. So Thursday, another pretty big day. We've got Producer Price Index, Core CPI, CPI year-over-year, Core CPI year-over-year, initial jobless claims as usual. So the CPI can definitely move the market. Another inflation reading. Friday, April 14th, U.S. retail sales. So that can definitely move the market retail sales depending on how severe it is. If it doesn't beat, that can really kind of dictate if this is going to move the market or not. It really just depends. And business inventories and that consumer sentiment as well. So consumer sentiment is probably the most important. I would say this is a mid-session data that usually can move the market. So we'll see how that goes. So now we're getting to the setups. So we do only have three this time. But our first one here, we're looking at AA. So this is Alcoa Corporation, pretty much involved with aluminum. So they're pretty much directly tied to the spot aluminum market. So you can see we have a 3850 support here, kind of forming a triple bottom. You have a nice bottom shadow wig pushing up, kind of showing that this did run up into the close of the session Thursday because we were closed Friday. So we're looking at Thursday as pretty much our Friday for the week. So you can see 3851 is holding. We also do have a MACD cross at the upside. I gave a signal probably all the way back up here, but then had a dip. But now, I mean, you can see that the signal is still holding. You're also holding that 3851 support. So ideally, I'd be looking for a move up to 4182. Probably maximum I can put us for it now, just because we do have previous support here that could act as resistance. So this little 4182 area can act as resistance. So we need to get above that in order to go higher. So looking pretty good here, you are going a little bit counter trend. We're trending under the 50 EMA, trending under the 200 SMA as well on the day that you also do have earnings coming up. So this probably wouldn't be the smartest swing trade to hold through earnings or anything like that. You just have to be careful holding through earnings. It's just a total coin toss. You don't know how they're going to report. You don't know if they're going to report good revenue or if their EBITDA is good, all that good stuff. So you just have to be careful holding through earnings. Usually a lot of people will kind of de-risk going into the earnings because they really have no idea how it's going to go. Unless you're holding long term, of course, but I'm trading options. Most of us watching here are trading options. So they are decaying assets and you have to be careful holding through volatile events like that. So AA looking good for calls here of 3851, looking for a move up towards 4182. Next, we're going into shop. So pretty clear uptrend we got here. You got to test one, you got to test two, you got to test three, four. I think we've even, I think I had this in our list before, maybe a couple of weeks ago. I think it was either off the, I think it was off the fourth trend line test here. So it was probably back in early March. And you can see it bounced really nice off of it. Also, we do have a gap above. It hasn't completely filled yet. So I mean, that could be, you know, that could be a market mover. I mean, people could see the gap and, you know, pretty much want to catch that exposure up into supply here, but either way holding the uptrend lines is like the fourth or fifth test of the uptrend. You could see that it's holding the daily 50 EMA as well. Nice little bounce off of that. You could see, you know, pretty much, I think it opened lower and then pushed all the way up into, you know, the close or somewhere around that. A nice little kind of like a bull shamer, but not really a hammer because it does have that little top wick a little bit, but either way, nice candle showing that it reacted to the trend line. Ideally, just be looking for that move up to 4826. You'd have to see how it reacts to 4826 first in order, you know, to see if it's going to fill the rest of that gap. So the 4826 obviously is just the local resistance. One thing I do not like about this quite is just this MACD cross to the downside. You can see the arrow, the red arrow, that means the MACD is starting to cross to the downs. You will have to particularly look at that and, you know, just be safe, you know, because the momentum could be shifting, but either way it's holding the uptrend, holding daily 50 EMA, your stop loss obviously is going to be, you know, if it breaks the uptrend. And you can see this little clock down here. I also add an alert for the trend line. So if it does decide to break, you know, we're going to switch our bias and go to puts because obviously if it breaks, you know, it's going to get a daily close down below the trend. It'll probably try to come back up, back test, and then, you know, maybe flush to the downside. But right now the focus is calls just because it's holding the uptrend. And also, you know, I feel like it could hit that 4826 resistance as long as tech and other high growth names are catching a bid. This is a pretty much a high growth name. So pretty volatile. You have to be careful with it. And like I said, just watch that MACD cross. You can see the KDJ is also crossing to the downside. So that, you know, something to just look out for not exactly like a leading indicator or anything. Obviously the price and, you know, the trend lines are going to be a little bit more reliable than, you know, momentum indicators. So right now still holding the uptrend, holding general structure. So maybe look for that final move up to 4826 before, you know, could maybe catch downside and catch up with the momentum indicators. So shop looking at calls also set that alert at the trend line in case it wants to break. And then we could switch to puts. And that would also be your stop loss. Next, we're going into Exxon. So I really like this one just because it's pulling up into a major supply zone. And you can see when I hit the supply zone and formed it, you have a major sell imbalance. So this is its first time testing this major imbalance area since it was formed all the way back in February. So one thing I do want to see first, I want to see it get under 114.66. That's that previous resistance here that could act as support. So I do want to see that break first. You know, you've said an example. So you want to see that level break first. And once that level breaks, I'm hoping then you could see a move under 113.12, which is the gap. So you have this huge gap and you didn't go under that 114.66 in order to get down to 113.12. And then 113.12 would have to break in order to fill the gap just like that. So I am looking at puts on this. One thing that is going against you here, two things actually, you see, we do have the MACD cross to the upside. I gave this green signal right here. So the MACD cross happened a couple of days ago, maybe last week or so. And the KDJ has been in a positive signal since late March or so. But you can see it's starting to curl down a little bit. So you can see the KDJ starting to curl. So maybe that is showing, you know, momentum is slowing. You also do have a really weak close from Thursday down 1.66%. Probably due to just reacting to the supply, getting up to an overbought zone. And I ran crude oil news came out. Obviously crude oil jumped very heavily. The futures opened up 67% that day on Sunday. So very volatile. You have a gap up and exily the, you know, the energy ETF, you have a lot of other energy names, but now they're kind of some of the names like the top names that I look at and energy like oxy, Exxon, you know, CVX, they are starting to get a little bit of downside, probably just feeling that gap from, you know, the crude oil news. So that's just something to keep an eye on. But obviously we're for that 114.66 to break. And then if you want to stay super safe, wait for that 113.12 break. And once 113.12 breaks, that's a pretty, you know, clear gap down into gap feeling this. So Exxon looking at puts here. And now we'll go into the indexes. So the first one we're looking at here is spy. Obviously a very choppy week. Didn't really do much. I mean, Monday went a little bit higher, closed up, you know, a little bit less than half a percent. So not a big day. And then just stay in the same range. So we literally closed on Thursday at the end of our week at the same spot we closed last Friday. So obviously it really went nowhere. But I mean, that's understandable because we did have this pretty big breakout to the upside. And also we're pulling into a very supply stacked area. You have a lot of supply based candles here. Obviously it struggled in this area pretty heavily when it, you know, it was here earlier, I think it was back in February. Obviously this can be a pretty tough area to get through. But one thing I do like for the bulls, you got 407.45 holding. And you can see that's that previous resistance pretty much acting as new support also reclaimed it. I do need to take out that weekly high at 411.92. And that can take you up into supply. And the main supply I have is, you know, obviously at 415 flat basically, or if we get the exact, it's going to be 414.86. And it comes from this base candle right here. So I feel like this still looks good for bulls. I ideally, you know, you want to see that 411.92 you get taken out in order to, you know, get that jump up to the, you know, 415 or 14.80s. One thing I don't really like about it though is that, you know, the VIX is getting kind of low volatility is contracting. And each time the VIX gets down to this level, and we'll go into that, the VIX does eventually bounce and volatility comes back. So you do have to be careful here. But either way, 47.45 structures holding looks good. Trying to base higher doesn't even take out that 411.92 though, in order to get up there. So really no setup for me personally. I feel like the setup was, you know, when it reclaimed over 47.45 and now, you know, it's all the way to 419.19. So I would want to see that 411.92 get taken out. And you can maybe take a trade in that free space up to the main supply zone. So spy kind of kind of an inflection point. Not really seeing anything specific. It is a nice break and retest, you know, so that that could, you know, look pretty good for bulls. Obviously the max price target is just going to be at the supply. So this one, last week, we were pretty much focused waiting for it to break out. So we want to see that 313 area get broken out first. And then I'm pretty sure I mentioned you want to wait for it to dip and then you can buy, you know, back at 313 for a break and retest. You can see it did exactly that. So it topped out at the 321.51 resistance that we were looking at. I figured it would pull into this 313, you know, the previous resistance and active support. And you can see off this, you know, candle right here did exactly that. We didn't go down to the 15 minute. So pretty much gap down at a pretty, you know, pretty red day pulled into that 313 area and then just totally ripped to the upside. So if you weren't able to wait for that 413 or that 313 to get retested and, you know, you're able to look for a bounce there, this did pay really good on Thursday. And I figured it would because I mean, most break and retest situations, you know, they're pretty straightforward. And it's a pretty classic strategy and easy to look for, you know, previous resistance, turn into new support, and then it can take it higher. So ideal structure, still holding QQQ, still looking bullish here. But that 313.68 doesn't need to hold precisely. So you need to see a stay above that. If not, you'd probably want to wait for it to, you know, get down to this demand of 308.20. So if it got down to that demand of 308.20, that's also, you know, a rally based rally zone. That's a good area to buy the dip as well. But right now that 313.68 bounce already happened. So I'm personally not going to, you know, look for a trade on the QQQ right now. I need to see 321.51 get taken out first. And then, you know, you can maybe take a quick trade on the breakup, or I'm going to be looking for resistance at 321.51. So you do need to see like a daily candle or general reaction to the area before going short. So it's kind of a mean on mid range. You got the 313.68, which comes from this. And you also have the 321.51. So that's kind of your tradeable range. We'll need to see it get up to 321.51. See how it reacts to that. And then, you know, maybe we can go from there. But either way, 313.68 still holding. If that doesn't a breaking, you know, wait for the dip by, you know, at the 308. And that comes from this demand right here. So ideally, I'd probably be looking to still buy dips, just because Voltaude is contracting. We haven't really seen anything. We haven't really seen anything form more about the banking crisis, Fed policy is starting to, you know, come to an end. They're probably going to start pausing rate hike soon. And people are kind of feeling a little bit optimistic about that. So we'll have to see. Obviously, you know, I'm very skeptical. I feel like this situation is not done. But, you know, you do have to get with the trend and right now the structure is up. So yep, that's just your two levels of focus that 313.68 and the 321.51. Next, we're going into the IWM. So last week, I'm pretty sure I had us only at the downtrend line maximum. It wasn't able to reach that, but either way, still found resistance, little bit short of the downtrend line, also a little bit short of the 200 SMA slash 50 EMA confluence area, they both met at the same area. So overall, I mean, you are trending under the moving averages. So anything, you know, if you're buying the dip down here, you are going counter trend, just because, you know, your momentum indicators, your moving averages aren't trending, you don't have price trending over them. So you have price still trending below them. So obviously, you know, that's considered somewhat of a downtrend. But right now, I mean, you do have the strong supports that, you know, 170s to 168, and that just comes from this area and this area, max low, you do have that 162.50, but it hasn't even tested that yet. So right now, I really feel like this is not a great setup. You maybe want to see a dip down into 170.30s or somewhere around the 170s, maybe 171. And then you could take a, you know, another counter trend trade and keep trading this choppy range. And that was kind of the focus, you know, pretty much all of last week and the week before that, just looking at counter trend reversals off support and, you know, taking profits, you know, at the supply zone or at this, you know, 179 area. And also maybe even potentially the downtrend, but you can see the downtrend never hit. So either way, IWM still trending down here. I feel like if you want to wait for that 170.34 support to get hit, that'd be a good trade to take to the upside. If you want to wait for puts, we just wait for that downtrend line to get tested, maybe wait for the 179.26 to get tested. And that could, you know, give you a nice put trade. But overall, I mean, MACD is still holding a positive uptrend here. You have a positive signal on that. KDJ is giving a different signal starting to get across to the downside. That probably comes from this major rejection, you know, at the 179.26 area, kind of mixed indicators here, but either way, just wait for that 170.34 to get tested to go to the upside or wait for that downtrend line or 179.26 area to get tested. You can start looking at puts. Otherwise, this is just mid-range kind of in a chopper range. So just wait. Next, we're going into the VIX. So the 2022 to 2023 average close did drop from 24.70 to 24.63. We can go to the data. I have manual data that I put in. This is our closes last week. They brought it down just a little bit about, you know, .07. So same average, same 50 EMA. This is just, you know, manually plotted, but that's how I get my average. So I just want to show you that real quick. So right now, you know, still at the same level, same level as last week, just that, you know, 1895, the 1811, the 1706, this is all kind of the same general area. Either way, the 1811 is still holding. You can see the 1811 had a test right here. You get a test right here. You got another test right here, another test right there. So you have four circled areas, and that's where 1811 has been tested. So obviously, this is still, you know, holding that. So there's still a little bit of risk that this can balance until it gets under that. And if it gets under that 1811, it can go to that 1706. And that's pretty much the 52 week low of the VIX. As long as this 1811 area is holding, I feel like it's just a little bit risky to kind of go long here, just because Valtode is contracting. And I know that the options are cheap, but it's just look at every time it hits this area. You got to bounce right here, heavy, heavy bounce, heavy bounce. And, you know, this would totally screw your calls. So you do have to be careful. Just have this area, wait for it to do something, wait for confirmation to either get under 1811. If it gets under 1811, that's a straight shot down to 1706. And that'd be good for calls. And this is just for the S&P, by the way. I say this every week when we're talking about the VIX, we're talking about the SPY, talking about the SPX. So pretty much, I mean, the VIX is just a measurement of, you know, the S&P 500. So you didn't see that 1811 get taken down. If that 1811 gets taken down, that's a straight shot to 1706. That would look good for calls. That'd be a good call signal, at least, you know, until it gets down there. And then once it gets down there, you do have to kind of start being a little more skeptical about how you are here. I mean, this is just a weird area. That's pretty much, you know, vulnerable to bounce. So I feel like this is a good area to start looking at puts for a swing. So if you can hold multiple weeks or, you know, get like 30 to 60 days or 60 to 90 days out of expiration, this is a good spot to get a discount for puts. Just because, I mean, volatility 30 days out is at a really low point. It's only at 1839. You're also trading under the 2022 to 2023 average close. I mean, as long as you're trending under this, you can pretty much assume that, you know, premiums are at a discount and volatility is extremely contracted. So, and you know how I feel, eventually I feel like it's gonna, you know, bounce and then come back up for a meme regression. It always does, but you just, you know, you do have to wait. We would need to see like a, you know, like a nice like bullish candle off of it with a nice, you know, close. Something showing me that, you know, volatility has a potential to spike back up. But right now, I mean, you can see just consecutive red candles, even this one little green candle, you got a strong top week. So, I mean, it's been giving us that signal of volatility to go down all the way back from when I, you know, named that video, you know, the Vixas finally starting to cool down. I think that was a YouTube title I made all the way back at March 23rd. I think it was March 24th. So not that long ago, but ever since that video title and ever since I was looking at that one candle, it's just been in a straight downtrend. So you need to see like a, like a bullish candle, some type of reaction to this 1811 or just this general area before saying volatility, you know, is going to bounce. You do have to be skeptical as because every time you get in this area, it does eventually bounce. So as for the Vix, I feel like we're just gonna be waiting for, you know, for a signal, either get under 1811, that'd be good for bulls or, you know, start looking for a reaction to the support. Next, we're going into the DXY. So pretty much the same thing as last week. We still have that 101.29 holding. It comes from this base right here. You got to test here. You got to test here. Finally has another test pretty much right here. Ideally, I mean, this could hold up. I feel like, you know, if you're bullish on the dollar, you want to see stocks go down, you know, this is a good area to, you know, see hold up. And it really just depends if it gets that, you know, inverse correlation back with equities, which I, you know, I hope it does. It's kind of been all over the place. And you can see I mean, currency volatility hasn't been all that crazy. I mean, it's kind of compared to, you know, what we're used to, I mean, it's been pretty calm. So either way, this 101.29 is holding. So as long as this is holding, I feel like, you know, you could see that move back up to, you know, 102.99. And also, you have the Vix bottoming out. So that's, you know, that could be another signal that, you know, we'll see a bounce in the dollar, we'll see a bounce in the Vix and, you know, start seeing stocks go down. That's a, you know, pretty much a combination that, you know, you want to stay skeptical about, you know, just chasing longs up here, just because you have no idea, you know, you have these two indicators that inverse the market usually kind of get into a local bottom to where, you know, we've seen a bounce before and then brought stocks lower. So that's all I mean by that. Ideally, we need to see it get under 101.29. If the dog gets under 101.29 and this, you know, just that 180 area, that'd be pretty good. And, you know, we could feel a little bit more bullish on the market if it does want to, you know, have that inverse correlation. Right now, just holding that double bottom at 101.29, I would maybe look for a move back up to, you know, 102.99 as long as this is holding. Another thing that's, you know, kind of interesting is that it's back under the COVID peak. Yeah, pretty interesting. If we need to get over that COVID peak again, and then we could consider, you know, volatility coming back, but either way, I mean, you could see, I could see this, you know, holding up pretty well. And, you know, that could be bad for stocks. You also have this MACD signal still holding positive. So that's interesting. But I mean, if it was to break that 101.29, that could take you all the way down to the one week 200 SMA. So yeah, really no signal on this yet. You could, you know, say that the VIX and the dollar are getting to a local bottom and that could be bad for stocks. But we need to see a little bit more volatility in the currency market and see a little bit, you know, more of a spike in the VIX first before we, you know, we take judgment on that. So that's the video guys. I hope you guys enjoyed. I feel like, you know, this segment wasn't really as interesting this week. We just need to see a little bit more data. But I hope you guys still enjoyed it. And I'm going to get this chopped up edited. I love you guys. Make sure you like, comment and subscribe to our Xtrees YouTube channel. And I'm out.