 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The United States winning streak in the women's World Cup came to an end last night via a draw with the Netherlands But I feel like they still played pretty well We'll talk about that and talk about more women's World Cup observations with Dr. Ed Fang for today breaking down his thoughts on the USA versus Netherlands taking a look forward to the match with Portugal and talking more Women's World Cup and we'll also talk some college football later in the show as well This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by dr. Ed Fang you can find his work at the power bank comm and check him out on Twitter at the power I can add we're talking about wins World Cup here in a second but today you're going off after this to watch Shohio Tony pitch and The level of jealousy I am experiencing right now is through the roof So congratulations to you on what should be a great day. How you doing? I'm doing great really looking forward to heading heading down to Detroit and the extra Yeah, extra awesomeness of seeing Shohei pitch and you know showing myself on that Asian guys can excel in sports too I mean, we've got Shohei today. I took an over on konesengas strikeout prop as well So we're right here at this point and I'm just like so jealous you get to watch him There's a good vibes now because they said they're not gonna trade him trade for Lucas G Alito last night and we're not the Lopez so Angels playoff odds according to zips Dan Zimborski or a fan grass 16.7 percent But hey, they're gonna gun for it And honestly, I feel like Ed if you've got the best player in baseball history on your team You kind of owe it to like him ill it to your fans at least give it a shot Maybe it's smarter to like trade him and add 15,000 assets But like why not give it a shot and kind of see what happens in one last run For sure. I I looked at it I don't think there's any value in Otani over seven and a half strikeouts today But I'm gonna bet it anyway just fun And I mean it there's no there's no other player playing both ways in the majors right now Is there there a couple in the minors, but most of them have struggled actually Michael Lorenzen the starter for the Tigers today dabbled in it a bit He played some outfield. He's a pretty good hitter But obviously not Otani level and I took his strikeout under for today, too So, you know, not quite at the same level of Otani just yet. Yeah. Yeah, I'm looking forward to it So and and we'll be in the suite thanks to some very con friends of mine. So yeah, it's gonna be great That's gonna be fantastic. Well, enjoy the game today and have fun. Hopefully Otani shoves So you can you and your son can have some fun with that as well We're gonna dive into last night's women's World Cup game break down what we saw from the U.S. For some Netherlands spit it forward and see where we can find some bets in the women's World Cup as well But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are right here on the the covering the spread podcast See but also fan dual TV plus an Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku and on the fandal YouTube page each and every weekday Make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcast Where you've got some exciting news over at number fire beginning now You can now find all of the number fire content from the analysts You know over the new home called fandal research fandal research is on the fandal domain meaning you can now do your own Research on the same site where you place your bets and submit daily fantasy lineups And don't worry all the number fire tools are still in place over at number fire calm So your daily process can remain the same for right now. So thank you for all your years of loyalty We're running three rolls over on fandal research For various events next week, I believe it'll be the NFL Hall of Fame game So if you want to get that free roll link when it is available next week Go to fandal.com slash research fandal.com slash research to get the link for that free play beginning next week And just check out all the great content over at fandal research Now let's go back to last night's game and talk about that USA versus Netherlands match it was a draw one to one and And you you watched a lot more soccer than me So I'm gonna I'm gonna toss up my thoughts in the game and then you can rebut them or agree with them Whatever it may be but my thought last night watching that game was it seemed like every pass in the US was like a yard or two off it seemed as though they were really close to blowing the lid open but couldn't connect and Again, you know it's better than I would but it could be where they're due for some regression and could have Explode or it could be they're just off and might not connect. They're not crisp right now Whatever it may be. So did you think the same thing watching that game and what were your overall takeaways from the US versus Netherlands? Right, I mean, I don't think they've been crisp. You've seen kind of flashes where they happen I would say the very end of the Vietnam game And then there was a stretch of maybe 10 minutes since I can half against the Netherlands where I thought they were crisp but in general, you know, not so much, right and You you saw a time during this in the very end of the first half where the Netherlands pretty much dominated possession They were up 1-0 and you're like, oh, no, you know US was kind of a little bit low on energy in terms of pressing which is Understandable, you know a team can't what I call psycho press like the entire game. You're gonna wear out your players That's just not a possibility and at the top level of soccer to do that Overall, I mean, I thought they played better than the Netherlands and you can see that in the XG They had about 0.9 compared about 0.4 for the Dutch You know, I mean, this is the you know, the best opportunity was one in the second half where, you know The Netherlands put it into the about the top of the box and got a really good shot off It was about 0.1 X 0.2 XG and it was very similar to a same play that the Netherlands scored against the men in the 2022 World Cup Slotted at home right in the corner. That was the game in which the Dutch finished pretty well You know, this was a shot of Juulier. It's just got her foot on the ball, which is which is great So, you know, I mean there was two goals on some pretty low Pretty low probability opportunities. That's just what happens. I do think the US Outplayed the Netherlands But the problem is the Netherlands is not the best team in this tournament I mean, they're not like the primary contender and we're gonna talk about one of them a little bit later and I just think like this US thing of like We're not gonna be the most skilled team at this tournament, which I certainly think is true But we're kind of gonna like make up for it with effort and fitness and stuff. That's worked in the past Obviously, that's why there's four stars above the crest on on the women's on the women's jersey I'm just not sure it flies later in the tournament So, I mean there's gonna be other teams that are gonna be able to out possess the US And does that come back to bite them, you know, if they go down to nothing to a Germany? It could be it could be a really long could be a really long day So, you know, I don't I certainly don't think it's the end of the world for the US Like I wouldn't take too much from the result 1-1, but I would take a little bit from yeah I do you think you know when you say that their passes were a little bit off that That might be flukish in the sense that they could play better, but You know, for example, I just don't think their passes are gonna be as consistently good as a nation like Spain So when you're watching a match and like let's say you've got a bet on a team And you're watching them and their passes are a little bit off like the US's were last night Do you expect regression or are you just thinking that? That that the crispness is not gonna come back, you know When you watch that based on your experience of watching soccer, how do you tend to come down on that that discussion? It could I mean, you know, it depends on where the average is, right? Yeah, so From from all I've seen of watching international soccer, which is mostly on the men's side You know, the US is probably not gonna be the best passing team on the women's side in this world cup And I actually do think that is gonna be true Does that mean they can't I mean, I do think there's room for improvement I do think they'll be better than they have been in the first few games. The question is whether that's enough Yeah, absolutely. So we'll see if they can regain that crispness and get back to it But again one one not the end of the world But a concern given that the Netherlands is not gonna be the best team they'll face throughout this world's cup next one up For the US is Portugal that match is coming up on a Tuesday final match of the group stage I want to ask you and what did your pre-tournament number say about Portugal? And have you seen have you seen anything to them thus far in the women's World Cup? Right, so all the metrics kind of agree that Portugal is in the low 20s So for example, like my numbers have met 21st. It's exactly where the FIFA rankings have them So it seems like a nation where the the women have not reached the level of the men where the men have been consistently been a top 10 team Probably the most skilled team in the world behind Spain So it doesn't seem like the women have gotten there. I expect probably a pretty easy win for for the US They should be able to get it done. I Don't think Portugal is gonna have even the quality that the Netherlands had So they should they should get through with six points. We'll see what happens with with gold difference And you know how many the Dutch can put on on Vietnam And but you know should be yeah, let's see minus one. Yes, that looks about right that looks about right I mean, obviously, I think it's gonna end up on gold difference, right? And I think we have a little bit of an edge right now, but but the Dutch get to play Vietnam so Yeah, yeah, we'll see where that goes. I think that's about right Yeah, as you were mentioning there the sports the the odds right now to win Group E Minus 1 15 for the US even money for the Netherlands and of course Portugal is 101 right now So it does seem as though it kind of be just a race to see who can Pour it on the most in those final matches the US taking on Portugal the Netherlands taking on Vietnam in those final matches a group number And let's open things up We've seen a lot of their soccer since we last talked back on Monday Any other observations from what you've watched there thus far any teams you are buying into right now over at Fandle Sportsbook? For sure. I talked about Sweden before the tournament Got them at 18 the one they you can actually still get them at 25 to 1 right now I would definitely be up for that. I think Sweden is gonna be one of the better teams in this tournament and A team that can give the US a run for their money I think their odds went down because they didn't have the greatest of performances against South Africa They were down 1-0 had to score a couple goals to come back and win that game You know the goal that South Africa scored was kind of fluky You know it was just like a ball that the keeper got her hands on and then it just literally fell Onto the leg of the South African player that and in next G That's gonna look like I don't know like 0.5 or some some crazy stuff like that I I don't I mean Sweden dominated the parts of the match that I saw I don't think their odds should have lengthened like that. So I would take a crack at that if you didn't If you didn't grab that before the tournament And then you know another rule that I kind of have about soccer is like sharks versus minnows So there are there are teams that are dominant and there are teams that are not so good So for example, Mexico played Panama in the goal cup final And this was the game that was supposed to be Mexico versus the US but Panama got past the US on on penalty kicks in In the semifinal and Mexico was minus 160 To win and that just didn't like I had zero numbers on this But that just didn't seem long enough because Mexico is a power in North America and Panama is Really not The 34th or even fifth best team in in North America. So that that sucked for a while, but eventually won And and I think I think we're gonna I think by in a couple weeks. We're gonna anoint Spain as one of the sharks and women's soccer They completely annihilated Zambia in this past match Five nothing And just just for no, I think I mentioned this the other day But like, you know Zambia beat Germany and a friendly before the start of the world cup So they're not exactly a pushover even though they've they've been pretty terrible in two matches So far But the thing about the spain game is they didn't even start ester gonzalez So ester gonzalez was is their center forward that is Probably most responsible for scoring goals. She had two in their first game And she was on the bench. She didn't even get off the bench. I don't know I don't really want to know why but it really didn't matter for spain Um So it seems like they have a depth of talent and it seems like they probably have a depth of talent in terms of scoring goals Which is not surprising Uh, given given kind of the skill level so, uh I like I like them a minus 115 over japan. I think japan is good, but and I I mean, I don't think japan's a minnow I just think spain is going to reach shark level You can kind of see that in the futures market like spain is the second highest favorite behind the us right now When I run the xg numbers, you know, it had them about spain about 51.3 percent over japan Uh, I think it should be a little bit higher because I feel like the markets are higher on spain than the xg numbers So, uh, yeah minus 115 against japan. I do feel like that's going to move in the right direction Um And uh, I think there's value there Yeah, you mentioned the spain futures They are three to one right now to win it behind only the us as far as the overall Markets their match with japan the spain money line is minus 115 right now over at fandals sportsbook You're talking about sweden and have a length of 25 to one germany is shortened They were plus 650 when you were plus 750 when you talked about them. They're now plus 650 so some good movement there too and You know, like you said japan did play really well in that opening match So an impressive show in there, but spain potentially a force Talking about the overall wins world cup. Okay, so ed is liking spain minus 115 the money line That is on monday. So coming up next week We won't have any women's world cup discussion next week because i'm gone all next week Tom vecchio filling in for me But we'll talk to you the week after the circle back with more women's world cup for now though Let's talk some college football because college football it is about a month away From week zero. Sorry if that makes you anxious didn't mean to you know Spring that fact on you right now that we're only a month away But you're beginning the prep process right now for college football for this year So what stage are you at in trying to get ready for the 2023 season right now? For sure. I mean, I just actually ran some numbers I run a market preseason model where I take win totals and then back out of rating And rank for every team. So I have those numbers right now I should be posting them for members of the site pretty soon But you know, for example, it really considers the schedule of every team in doing this calculation Ohio state and michigan are both at 10 and a half wins But it seems like michigan should be higher because There's there's more juice for them to go over. That's actually not the case. They're behind Ohio state. It's it's close, but And the reason is because Ohio state goes to Notre Dame out of conference and michigan Literally plays no one like they have like they did last year. So it's a calculation that accounts for strength of schedule You know, the usual suspects are at the top Georgia and Alabama and then uh, Ohio state and michigan are next at three and four It is a calculation that um, I certainly trust um I've actually found the kind of ats performance for the nfl type models like this are better than college Uh, but but but the reasons for that we'll talk about it You know over the over the first five weeks. It's a pretty competitive model um Just in trying to uh evaluate spreads. So it is something um that that I certainly trust in It's been really good over the last few years and I look forward to uh Yeah, seeing what the spread predictions are and using that uh to bet week zero and week one games so you were talking about the first five weeks where it's competitive and You talked before about how you have a more reactive college football model now So does that mean that you're running a separate model for the early part of the year versus the model that you would run As the season goes along and you get that initial data following transfer portal stuff like that Well, I mean, I will start changing college football ratings. Uh as soon as um As soon as week zero comes, right? So I'll be starting to change things. It is more reactive. Um But that doesn't mean, you know, that doesn't mean you can't check how well that the preseason Rankings rate ratings do for the first five weeks and it's it's very competitive. Yeah, even with the closing market Yeah, absolutely When you've been running through that process because you you know when you're running these numbers you look at them You can kind of see which teams may be higher or lower than expected Have any teams kind of jumped out to you as being surprises as far as teams You know, maybe you're looking at the futures market or maybe you want to bet them Early in the years think the market may be a bit too high or a bit too soft on them For sure. Yeah, let's talk about two teams real quick. USC is at seventh And no one is going to doubt what they can do on the offensive side of the ball with uh, Lincoln Riley and Return of Kayla Williams at the quarterback position The defensive side of the ball has been such a such a poop show over the past couple years that like I really want to market um About how long the alex grinch is going to be the defensive coordinator there. Um, I I I think there's a very real chance. He does not last this season Um, they're playing the same game as they did last year They actually have a lot of returning starters from from last year a lot of a lot of returning production from last year And the way they performed, I'm not sure that that's a good thing They hit the transfer portal. They brought in some some some guys. This is what they did last year So we'll see how they mold. Um You know, we have four or five seasons of data on alex grinch and and none of it looks particularly good I think seventh, I mean, obviously, you know, I mean, you know, the USC totals are going to be inflated because they're they're definitely an over team Uh, I just don't think the defense is going to be good. So that's a team that might be a little bit overrated at seven Seems a little bit overrated at seventh for me. Um, and then, you know, we have Clemson at eighth Which I think is very interesting. Um, you know, they won 11 games last year It was it was a decent season if you're any program besides Clemson But when you're Clemson, it's it's a bit of a disappointment and um, they brought in Garrett Riley from uh From tcu. He was the coordinator at tcu and he's with sonny dyke said smu the previous two years before that Uh, I'm not sure if he gets that job if his last name is not Riley there was a lot of tcu had a lot of good fortune happened on that side of the ball a lot of explosive plays and so maybe that's the talent of The point in johnson and or maybe that's randomness Uh, most people are going to say the former and and probably the latter has more of an impact Than anyone else is giving credit for so, you know on that side of the ball, you know, they're they're going with kid club nick as their quarterback who We haven't seen much of so, you know, is he gonna be trevor lorence? Probably not but can you get close to that? Well, if you can then maybe they'll be all right, but they're at eighth, you know, it looks, you know, they lost They're they're at eighth of my numbers. It looks like they've kind of lost more in defense than they have in the past couple years So it's um, you know, it's a program that's kind of in flux they were obviously fantastic when they had trevor lorence and dishawn watson that hasn't been the case since then and I'm not sure that we don't think eighth is a little bit too high by the end of the season Yeah, looking at the wind totals right now. Clemson is at nine and a half Actually, they're both a nine and a half over for clemson minus 168 under is plus 136 as for usc They're over nine half winds is minus 170 under is plus 138 and honestly ed I know that usc may be overrated as a result of their bad defense But that also makes them the best team to watch in college football because you're gonna get points I know you are someone who loves loves good defense. I appreciate good defense, but if I can get a 76 point total where you can justify the over we're cooking with gas, baby So I know it's not great for their like sustainability for Trying to like compete in the pack 12 and compete for a national title beyond that But from a selfish viewer perspective game on baby. Give me all that Yeah, for sure. I mean we're gonna we're gonna see some high totals there and uh We'll see it. I mean, we'll see how it goes for them Yep, and kayla blames can keep up. So that definitely does help as well All right That's gonna wrap up the show before today here on covering the spread as mentioned edley back with us not next week But the week after talks from our women's world cup then recap The group stages and get ready for the next round in the women's world cup You can find it on twitter at the power rank and find him on uh and find his work at the power rank Common ed, of course, we have five nuggets saturday going on over there Work people find that what else is going on for you at the power rank Absolutely. Yeah, check out five nuggets saturday. It's my free email newsletter security list of bets For me and other people as well as some analytics heading into the season Check that out at the power rank dot com and then also getting cranked Getting going with the football analytics show heading into the uh into the football season I also think this year that i'm actually going to put my newsletters on the podcast as well So you can kind of consume that however you might like um I don't know. I feel I feel like other people who are more into the content game than I am are doing it So I don't I don't feel like there's I don't feel like it's a bad thing to make You know the work i'm putting in uh more accessible correct so um Yeah, so that's going to happen on the newsletter So I have a preview series that is going to happen uh as we uh later in august And you'll we can get both on the newsletter and the football analytics podcast Are we getting an interception report again this year so we can uh predict the demise of another quarterback No report. Um, I actually all the bad ball numbers are up on my side jim. So you check that out Uh, I'm I'm debating whether to uh to keep it public or put it behind for members So we'll see okay. Well, I know what i'm doing this afternoon then so and it was great talking to you as always Appreciate it. I will be over on the power rank dot com as well hanging out checking out the numbers there Find out on twitter at the power rank. I am on twitter at jim sonnis or j i m S a n n e s make sure you follow fan dual research at fan dual research Check out the podcast feed on the covering the spread podcast feed and find us on the fan dual youtube page and fan dual tv Plus as well. We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow pitching and just swinging by talk some strikeout props This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network