 So it's definitely been a rough few days actually scratch that it's been a rough few months in the bitcoin world we have been stuck in this downtrend since we hit that all-time high back in early november what shocked me lately is how far we've been pushed down last week and so far this week without some sort of relief rally it just keeps going further and further down there are of course many things that have played a hand on this but of most recent it's been the fud around the possible rate hikes that we will be seeing this year and this is crushing the entire market it's not just bitcoin if you look at the stock market it has been down very very bad you can see today it is basically completely in the red bitcoin just kind of got caught in the middle of this during a very sensitive time in its market structure now although this has been a 52 percent drawdown so far from the previous all-time highs don't forget that back in may in june we saw a 55 percent pullback before setting up a new all-time high just a few months later so of course the question remains are we in the bear market and if we are for how long let's go ahead and dive into today's analysis hey what's up j here and welcome to bitcoin daily bringing you guys the best tips tutorials and ideas to help you guys become profitable and successful investors the goal of this channel is to empower you guys the community with the knowledge and resources to help you get your wealth up to that next level so if you guys are new to the channel don't forget to subscribe turn on notifications also of course smash the like button on this video if you enjoy it and if you have any questions about anything drop it in the comments let's dive in to today's video so the question everybody's wondering are we in a bear market well let's take a look at the definition of what a bear market is so a bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines have we experienced prolonged price declines yes we definitely have it typically describes a condition in which you can't say that word because bitcoin is not a security in which prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment so have we dropped over 20% yes but you have to remember we're in the crypto market when this where this happens every few months right a 20 drop could happen in a day doesn't mean we're in a bear market so that part kind of you know we scratch that out that doesn't really count towards it now as far as widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment if we look at the fear and greed index which is basically investor sentiment you see that we are at 13 which is extreme fear and yesterday we were actually at 11 so yes I would say that there's definitely 100% negative investor sentiment and widespread pessimism at this point right if you continue reading you'll also see that it can be considered to be in a bear market if we have a drop for a sustained period of time typically two months or more and we've basically been dropping since the beginning of November so I would say we're currently at that two month mark so by definition right we are currently in a bear market so the question becomes is this current bear market cyclical similar to the one that we experienced back in May June or is it longer term like we experienced back in 2018 unfortunately that's a question that only time can answer so the only thing that we can really do here is kind of take a look at the charts look at probabilities and possibilities based on what that's showing also of course look back into history when we had similar events happen we can look at fundamentals on chain data and the overall economy since bitcoin does seem to kind of follow it so if we looked at every single one of those things this would be an hour two hour long video so maybe we'll do that on a live stream but for today we're just going to look at the charts here so if we zoom all the way out to the monthly chart which is usually where I like to start when I really want to get a bird's eye view of what is currently going on right you'll see all this boring stuff over here right it looks like nothing was happening throughout that time but that was actually a huge ride up in a huge fall down then some consolidation in between before as you can see a massive massive move compared to everything that happened over here so believe it or not our structure here is still intact and I'll tell you why even though we've so far lost this support and I say so far because we do still have about a week left in the month and within that week we still can jump back up and close the monthly candle on this support that would be a hell of a comeback I don't think it will happen but it is a possibility so you always have to keep it in mind that would keep this support intact but if we do close below that support currently like around where we are right now we would still have a higher low because remember this was the higher high then we set a higher low then we set a higher high and now this would be a higher low so technically speaking we're still structured to be able to move up and set up a new higher high and just kind of keep this thing going on who says we can't go up to like 80,000 set up a new higher higher and then drop back down to like 40,000 right then move back up to like 100,000 and then drop back down to like 50,000 that is very well possible and it would create this new support trend line here so that is still in the cards guys that is still a possibility and in that case this will not be considered a long-term bear market because we'll be in the next few months we'd be expected to go head back up set up new all-time highs then for the next few months drop back down then for you know just keep it going going and going and it might be different than any other market that we've ever had in bitcoin so if that were to happen this would be the first time that that ever happened so it's a low possibility but it is still a possibility now what would cause such a reverse in the current three month trend right is there anything on the charts that are pointing to such a thing right so if we if we zoom in a little bit to the monthly you still can't really see anything the rsi has dropped lower than the previous pullback that we saw in may and june this is actually the lowest the rsi has been since the pandemic drop back in march so that's how historic this current drop we're in right now has been but if we draw some lines here you can see that we're actually in what is called a falling wedge still so we've threatened dropping below it several times now but you can see that we're still in it and this is actually a bullish candle if we end up closing the week like this and if this candle ends up closing in green that's even more bullish that's usually a reversal candle kind of signaling that sellers are exhausted right so it would give the bulls an opportunity to push prices back to the upside and if we saw prices back to the upside we could revisit this $40,000 area and possibly be able to break out of this falling wedge in that scenario that would confirm a reversal in trend and we could see prices head back up to possibly you know $50, $52,000 to retest this area right here now if this were to happen it's not going to happen super fast it would take some time but it is a possibility which is why i've drawn it going out so this could maybe be something we see towards february march of course this is if this scenario played out now if this scenario were to not play out and we just we lose the falling wedge then at that point we could retest the previous lows that we saw back in may june july i would expect a test of that which is also a test of this fibonacci retracement level right here which of course is the 61.8% golden fibonacci level so why is it the golden level because prices often like to react and to bounce off of that retracement level so that would be a good candidate for another bounce and of course if we were to lose that level then i would say that we're going to retest previous all-time highs from 2018 which was uh $20,000 but in every bear market that we've ever had we've never first of all we've never gone below a previous all-time high as far as the price dropping and second of all we've never even gone back to the previous all-time high in a bear market so again it's unlikely due to what history tells us but again if we go into a bear market right now it'll be the first time in history that we do it in this way so there could be a first right we're in new waters that have not been tested before so at this point any any of these things are a possibility a drop back down to let's say $30,000 would be a around a 56% correction which would make this a deeper correction than the previous one in may if we retested 28,000 which was basically the lows of the previous correction we'd be around 58% and if we were to retest the $20,000 level that would be a correction of about 71%. Again if we look at the previous bear market and look at the top to the bottom it was a 73% correction and this one would be a 71% correction so in a bear market this is definitely possible and if you actually move this down to this Fibonacci level it's right at 73% which is exactly what the 2018 correction pullback went down to 73% so how do you make money in bear markets if you were to stay within a bear market short selling and put options so instead of the betting on the price to go up basically you would be betting on the price to go down so let's take a look at some trade ideas some trade setups that we're currently watching right now so you can see that in the trade group we have been taking short trades that's currently how we've been playing the market to make some money you can see yesterday we had we took a short position at 36,000 after we had that rally above 36,000 and it triggered and it went all the way down and not only did it trigger but it ended up going all the way to a new low of 32,900 so we definitely smashed some profits on that one you can see that we also did some you can see that we've also been taking short entries at 35 we took some more at 36 and we've done some short entries at 38k and of course right here the day that we broke down below 40k we took short entries there so like we told you guys before if we lost 40,000 we were going to start looking for short entries to make some money during this downtrend and that's exactly what we've been doing so right now as you can see we're getting close to this Fibonacci level right here where you can see we've been rejecting multiple times so that would be one place to look to take an entry a short entry there that would be close to that 37,000 and if you do see 37,000 you see the price drop then that's an easy short trade to open and open that one if we were to push higher up to maybe 38 I'd be looking to take short entries as close to 38 as possible and of course if we were to push up higher anywhere over here you can see that this is a resistance area here I'd be looking to take short trades there that's around that 40,000 area and on the way down we're looking to take entries as well so we'd be looking 36 is a possibility to take 35 you know breakdowns below 36 breakdowns below 35 and of course anytime you see a breakdown below the previous lows those are all good entry points for some short term short trade now remember that we are still extremely oversold here we have got a bounce here but we're still in that oversold area you see that anytime we've been in oversold we always bounce back up above it we have some type of rally we have not seen it yet but again I do expect that to happen sometimes soon here the same way markets can't just go up they can't just go down so I do expect some sort of rally even if it's a short-term rally I'm expecting movement to the upside at some point remember this week on Wednesday we have another FOMC meeting where they discuss the rate hikes and all that other fun stuff that the Federal Reserve do and then Pa will be speaking about what the meeting was about and basically expect some volatility this will be on Wednesday they should basically be speaking about their stance on the rate hikes and what they're going to do this year if their stance stays very hawkish and very you know without being lenient then you can expect more downturn for the markets and it'll it'll affect everything if they change their tone and start you know speaking a little bit more like oh we're going to see what happens and then make a decision in the future type of thing or they say that they're gonna push back the rate hikes or anything like that anything that might sound bullish then it will affect the markets in for then in that point it will it will probably cause markets to move up instead of down so either way there should be some volatility come Wednesday and probably Thursday all right guys so that's pretty much it I think I've covered everything I wanted to the video is a little bit longer than I wanted it to but there was a lot to cover a lot to talk about a lot of ideas that I have right now that I wanted to share with you all so if you stayed till the end of the video thank you so much comment on the bottom watched till the end so that I know that you guys watched it till the end and at the same time is going to give the video an extra boost with the algorithm and help it get out to more and more people also don't forget to smash that like button on the video if you need to the channel of course subscribe turn on notifications and if you have any other questions about anything drop it in the comments thank you guys so much for tuning in thank you guys for watching this video I will see you on the next one as always peace and love