 All right, welcome into another edition of the fan duel hurry up I'm Joe Ranieri and I am joined alongside John Sheeran of fan duel and Listen, we've heard and we all know the Kentucky derby It has been pushed back to September the fifth, but that has not stopped of course All the prep races from continuing to go on leading up to that derby now in September and John One of the biggest days of racing Regardless of when the derby is is going to be on Saturday at the fairgrounds, of course We're all looking forward to the Louisiana derby, which of course is one of those races the staples that has really given us a pretty good idea of Possibly the horse of the year and this weekend's card at the fairgrounds in New Orleans is Absolutely loaded. Sure, Joe. Yeah, it's an exciting weekend for the fairgrounds in Louisiana Obviously the Louisiana derby the main race of the day and as you say Change complexion this year for the three-year-old division with the Kentucky derby being moved all the way back to September It'll definitely be a first for all of us as strange to see it being run that point in the calendar But yes, the road to the Kentucky derby continues nonetheless And as I said, the Louisiana and a derby is a good opportunity for horses in the south and Shippers as well to get at the points that they need to qualify a hundred points Obviously go to the winner of this race down to 20. I think for the third and fourth place finishers So lots of points and lots of qualification on on the menu for Saturday for the fairgrounds and an interesting race in Prospect I would say as well on what is a really good card, Joe As you mentioned, we've got the Oaks to go before the derby and finite expected to be a very strong favorite for As muslin and Ricardo Santana, Jr. In that race, she'll likely be prohibitive odds But excited to see her You know cement her position among the three-year-old Phillies is possibly one of the best Phillies in the country and Interests to see how she runs too. All right So we've got a really exciting card this Saturday, of course It'll culminate with race 12 there that being the Louisiana derby But let's start in the seventh race John talk to us a maiden special here Talk to us about how you like this race and who you like in this race. Yeah, Joe I thought we'd start with this race as an interest and rate made in special weight over a mile and 16 On the dirt track and I thought the race shaped up really well The seven is likely to be a strong favorite here making his second start for Michael Stidham It's a good dolphin cult cult and they made his debut at the fairgrounds actually a month ago over six furlongs The horse was sent off a dollar eighty with his entry made favorite that day Came from a long way back as far back as five lengths and was only beaten a length and a quarter at the line He shaped very much that day like the step up and trip was going to suit him I just have a little doubt. He's going to take a lot of money. He's a seven to two morning line favorite I think he'll be under two to one on the day. I just think it's really well here for us to take a shot against him Obviously, it looks like a good move to step up and trip here for him He's bred to get it and he he will be the one to beat no doubt But as I said, he's going to take that money I think it feels better taking a shot against them now that he has to prove He can route as well as he can sprint very very different game And sometimes you see these horses finishing strongly over sprint trips, Joe That don't necessarily translate that to going a mile and beyond so The one horse was sick. It was actually second that day just a place ahead of him And I don't like him stepping up and trip at all. He battled on strongly But I think the step up and trip will find him out So I'm moving to the four which is a new shipper coming in from California from Santa Anita horse train by Neil Drysdale called reprobate He gets Joel Rosario back in the place After he wrote him on debut actually and he shaped encouragingly on debut that day I thought he was that he attracted money that day and was sent off a three to one shot He was beating four lengths, but I think that performance is on a par with pretty much everything else in there in the race here He then stepped up on that going up to a mile on a second star where he was slowly away He didn't really show a lot, but he was sent off 13 to one that day And I just wonder whether it came too soon from just three weeks after that debut He now gets blinkers on for the very first time and they give him Lasix and Neil Drysdale has a really excellent record book in Joel Rosario He's booked him 10 times over the last 12 months and on five of those occasions They've teamed together for a winner. I like this son of blame here And I think he'll really appreciate them more emphasis on stamina particularly with this race looking to have I think at least three horses that are likely to be vying for the lead. I'll take a chance on him I think he'll probably he's six to one on the morning line Joe He'll probably be more like a four to one nine to two shot on the day But I think his abilities on par with pretty much everything else we've seen with the seven taking all that money I'll just side with the four instead and hopefully Joel Rosario can get us off to a good start All right. I like I said loaded car when you got $50,000 made in specials that we're breaking down for you You know, it's gonna be a special race day. How about race eight the Tom Benson Memorial 100,000 $100,000 Tom Benson Memorial in fact, how is this race shaping up for you? Yeah, I thought this race was an interesting one as well Tom They're on the turf here going the same trip as the previous race a mile in a 16th and much more experienced horses It's for four-year-old Phillies and mayors. So all the females running here for a hundred thousand dollar purse as you said I think it falls between three horses here the one the two and the nine are the ones I would concentrate on they look to have the strongest form I think a lot of the money will fall to the two which is Althea for Chad Brown Joel Rosario teams up with Chad here to ride this horse who comes and ships here from Tampa Bay Ran in a grade three at Tampa recording a career-best 92 buyer that day when only beaten a neck Over this exact trip. So you don't have any concerns about stamina and on breeding with that French sire of CUNY That that's to be expected. This horse has had seven starts at this trip and finished in the money six times Although never recording a win and the strike rate for me is a small bit of a concern when you're talking about Chad Brown horses Joe, you know, you're gonna take a lot of money to wins from 17 lifetime starts usually on the premises But really dependent on a strong pace up front and that's my angle into this race I'm not necessarily sure you're gonna get a strong pace to run at and unless the rain comes and there is some forecast for Saturday I would look to try and get Althea beat here And the first place people will probably look will be to that nine horse who beat the one last time at you at Sam Houston Coming from well off the pace under Flaviam Pratt to win That was a mile and a 16th on the turf course But that race set up really really well for winning envelope came off a strong pace There was horses dueling on the lead and managed to get up in the last 16th and win actually going away by over three lengths I just think the one is the horse here. I think this race sets up really well for Brad Cox's Dream passage to the daughter of stormy Atlantic And this horse was coming back off a layoff in that race that I just mentioned Did really well to hold on for second invite further the lead the whole way around the racetrack and still managed to hold on for second I expect that horse to strip much fitter and Brad Cox is a very good strike rate all across the board But does really well with second off the bench 26 percent a strike rate out of a huge sample size of 425 does really well with Lauren Giroux who I love on the turf And I'm hoping that the one horse dream passage can just sit on the lead Dictate its own pace and try and kick clear and hold off the deep closers I think he'll be second or third favorite Hopefully Altea takes all the money in that we're left with a decent price on dream passage So the one in race eight for me, you know, it's funny interesting stat to dream passage You mentioned of course did a great job finishing second in the last race But was the chalk and trainer Brad Cox and this probably shouldn't surprise nobody he rebounds 31% with beaten favorites the race before so, you know, Brad Cox and a lot of people There John should kind of pay attention to who the trainer jockey combos are in a lot of these races here Especially at this track. Absolutely. I mean Brad Cox an excellent trainer Like I said, his stats across the board are all 20 25% plus and he teams up with Joel Rosario 26% of the time huge sample size again in the last 12 months 306 times they've teamed up and they've had a 26% strike rate and they even do even better here at the fairgrounds Which is obviously relatively local for Brad Cox 28% strike rate when they're teaming together And I think you get an awful lot of insight into Trainers and when their horses are really strongly fancied. I just like to look at this one Joel second up off the bench and Florence you're back in the irons. Love it. All right Let's move on getting closer, of course to the big race the 12th race the Louisiana Derby But let's talk about the three hundred thousand dollar Munoz memorial classic stakes grade two at the fairgrounds, of course in Louisiana This will be race 10 and tell us John. Is it another are we looking at the chalk in this race? Yeah, I think so. I'd be very very surprised if the 12 isn't favorite here Synchrony he's a really solid animal for Michael Stidham Joe Bravo rides it and they team together a 21% strike rate down there Which is really excellent. Joe Bravo would be much more well known up around these parts in Monmouth Obviously Jersey born jockey as well. So pretty surprising to see a good strike rate like that for for for him down there Um, this horse is just a really excellent turf horse Joe six times. He's run at the fairgrounds six times He's hit the boards. He's run eight times at the trip a seven times He's hit the boards and he's run 26 times in his life and he's hit the board 20 times So you know what you're getting from? Synchrony, it's always a really strong run again second off the bench I do like that angle trainers a 21 strike rate second up off this sort of a layoff teaming together with Joe Bravo I think this horse is littered with horses that are relatively so horses like um dot matrix You know these are good horses But without necessarily being wind machines channel makers another one the eight And that usually runs his race is very very solid in the grade But finds winning relatively difficult one win in the last And nine starts for example Whereas you look at synchrony and you see you know two wins from the last day four from six at the track three from Eight at the trip coming off a really really good run behind Factor this of Brad Cox's And I just think that this race will set up much better. There seems to be a little bit more speed in here I expect the likes of instill regard and those horses to push along early and push factor this on and leave it To one of the deep closers and I expect this horse to be coming with a really strong late run Joe and I'd be very very surprised. We don't get a really strong run for our money here He's a three to one in the morning line horse. I think he'll probably go off south of that He's been down there for some time and been working well I note there a first of 53 workers on march 7th as well Which gives me strong indication that that horse is ready in prime for a big big run and without record at the fairgrounds I'll be very very surprised this horse not buying there talk to me about Channel maker there will you mot out of the barn posted? Of course one of his best times round two you got a 16 percent angle here with mot at this track What do you think about maybe uh him somewhere in the exotics? Yeah channel maker is just a really admirable horse If you look at his his form joe, it's littered with grade ones and grade twos all the way through his career I just find him he's difficult to predict sometimes. He's off the speed and he's coming with late runs other times He's on the lead and not holding on he shaped. Okay Actually the last time he took behind a very easy winner in zulu alpha at Gulfstream park That would be a very very good prep for this run as you say bill mott an excellent trainer junior alvarado rides He's going to be bang there But this horse is usually a four to six to one shot And for me just one that you should be opposing a lot of seconds on his card He's finished second as many times as he's won and as I said in the last nine Nine starts only managed one. I do respect him. I think he'll be not very far away I just trust synchrony to put his head down when it really matters a little bit more All right, and then of course that leads into uh the big race of the day race number 12 the 1 million dollar Louisiana derby grade two and some fantastic horses in this race This is going to be a classic. How does it shape up for you? Yeah, it's a good race A lot of uh re opposing horses from the risen star Which was run a month ago in two divisions at the fairgrounds over a slightly shorter trip of a mile and an eight They go up to a mile and three sixteenths here on the dirt And this is as we said a good qualifier for The kentucky derby with the winner getting a hundred points in the qualification for that big race now in september that we're so used to being The first weekend in may Very interesting with those re opposing um horses from the risen stars. I said running two divisions I think the mr. Monomoy division is by far and away the stronger I think it was run nearly a second quicker than the secondary division Which was won by modernist for bill mott who runs here as well Um, I'm inclined to ignore Modernist major fed new york traffic. I just felt like that was a lot of slow horses. The time wasn't very good It was run on the same card the next race after Mr. Monomoy and therefore I think that that form is really really substandard So i'm taking a shot away from all of those horses I think by far and away the horse to beat is the 10 for mark cassey called enforceable Good owner there in john oxley and this is a nice horse's son of Of tapet who shaped really well in that risen star behind mr. Monomoy who was an all the way winner He got a little bit out of his ground and finished off very strongly And he got within two lengths of the winner and and definitely shaped like he was going to improve For that the only problem I have with him is he's going to take a lot of money here joey's an obvious favorite He shaped well everybody can see it on paper And I just have a little bit of a doubt about these horses that have run at the fairgrounds in those two divisions Of the risen stars that actually how really good they are Um, so I wanted to try and take a shot against all of those horses enforceable by far and away the one that you would have to prefer out of those races Um, I looked at portos the nine horse for todd plecher It comes off a decent run in the withers, but he just looked really slow He got a good set up that day and couldn't get within he ended up finishing third But he was still beating nearly four lengths. He didn't do anything very quickly for me So he's a horse. I would look to try and oppose as well. He didn't look that fast Um, and as I looked at this race, even though there was a potential for some speed to be on I wanted to try and find a new shipper Maybe something that had a little bit more pace than a lot of these deeper closers And I landed on the on the three joe another brad cox horse called wells by you And he ran really well in the south west stakes at oak lawn, which is another kentucky darby qualifier He was only beaten a length, but he was forced to kind of run pretty hard early It was his first race in graded company after Winning easily and an allowance are an option of claiming 80 grand race at oak lawn park I just think this horse a lot of upside I think he easily grabbed the rail under florin shiru And I think there's a decent chance here that the jockeys realizes a lot of slow horses going to be coming late And they may actually be able to steady it up a little bit better than it might look on paper on paper It looks like there's plenty of horses that want to go forward And but I'm hoping that florin can get out get the rail early slow things down and dictate This horse has got a buyer speed figure for that south west stakes of 96 Which is better than anything else already in the field And I feel like if he can get out in front and set his own fractions There's a decent chance he can improve. He should be a decent price. He's an eight to one morning line joe He's not going to be eight to one I would probably expect somewhere in the region of five to six to one instead But I think I'd rather take him at those odds than you know rely on enforceable coming from the back Yeah, and enforceable is going to come from the back for sure Hit the money I believe six of six of eight of his career starts But I'm with you wells by you that last race He gets a similar effort and a similar trip here He could be in the winner's circle here at a pretty good price. John. Yeah, I really do like him I mean I found it a tricky race initially because I was concerned about the pace makeup But the more I look at some of these closers the more I look at the horses that have been running around the fairgrounds In those two starts and the risen star and now here I just felt like it was a race where you could potentially take a shot with a new Form line and try and get them all beat and this this horse, you know at least on paper He maps out well There is a concern that he gets forced to race too hard too early and maybe vulnerable laid on but at those odds I think we can take a chance joe Yeah, and don't listen major feds got a what a win and two places I believe here at the fairgrounds He was coming. I mean he gave modernist this little extra, uh, you know 16th of a mile here. Maybe that could make the difference With him showing up somewhere in the money. I think Joel Rosario is a really good booking from I think Joel Rosario gets a lot of critics for some of his rides But what he is very very effective is deep closers late on the piece arriving late on the dirt And I think this this horse will really react well to him Again, it was just that slow race and I watched the race back a couple of times joe and I liked him As you said on paper, I liked him But then when I looked at the race, he just looked really slow to me He did work really really well two weeks after that risen star went a four furlong clip bullet in 47 And that was the fastest on that day. So maybe that race has sharpened them up a bit. I wouldn't discount him entirely Um, I just rather'd have something closer to the leads in terms of looking for the winner It's a huge weekend in racing, of course, uh on saturday at the fairgrounds It'll all culminate to that race race number 12 the one million dollar louisiana derby and of course the winner Will be taking a trip to uh churchill down september 5th for the kentucky derby on behalf of john shearan I'm joe renneri want to thank you very much for stopping by good luck to you this weekend with your plays It's been another edition of the fan duel hurry up