 Keep this in mind, the further a stock goes away from its macro channel, the higher probability it's going to reverse. That's why you saw reverses today, pretty aggressive reverses today. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Go Yankees, game one, Yankees in nine. Book it. Anyway, I hope everybody's doing well. So let's talk about the tape. I wish I can find a more creative way on a daily basis to kind of reiterate the same point. And unfortunately, the same point is playing out every single day. Yes, we will definitely have days that the market will reverse, give the markets a little bit of a dead cab bounce, a little bit of breather, and we've seen that over and over and over again ever since we've lost the 50-day moving average. But again, the predominant action continues to be on the sell side. It feels like every single time no matter if a Fed speaker is dovish, is hawkish, is whatever they want to call themselves, right? It always winds up exactly the same way. Today you saw at the open another case of stocks get washed. Again, you saw the futures green. If you've been watching this broadcast for a while, you know what happens when there's a sell side environment and the futures are green in the morning. There's a high probability it's going to get stopped at some point. That's exactly what we did today, and we had the same day to sell off in the software names that we talked about yesterday. Amazon finally broke down. Could have broke down a lot more if the market didn't reverse in the middle of the morning. You had meta breaking down. You got the usual suspects. Tesla doesn't rally after a market tries to stabilize and go green in a day. So you have the same things over and over again. And sometimes the best type of analysis is just which eyeball test, right? Before you could figure out what type of technical trader you want to be on, if you want to be a technical trader, right? Before using VWAP and Fibonacci's and this one and that one, make sure your eyeballs kind of are working, right? And you can see, you know, with your own eyes, the same thing is happening every single day, every single day. Stocks are losing their ranges. The next day, if they confirm their ranges, they're getting hit on the bottom. You know, probably in this mantra, we'll probably continue to play out the same way over and over again, until we start at least reclaiming, you know, at least a five, ten day moving average again. Is it possible they rally the market tomorrow? Sure. Tomorrow you have, I believe you have inflation data coming out tomorrow. I think it's the PPI. It could be wrong. I think it's the PPI coming out tomorrow morning at 8.30. You know, in my opinion, you know, if you're a bull, you don't want to see a gap up in futures into the PPI. Is it possible they come out with something so insane that the market actually gaps and goes? It's always possible, right? Everything's possible. But in my opinion, just from the point of reference, just what we kind of talked about, futures green, they usually bring in sellers to kind of get out of there, to get out of their inventory if they got stuck in any afternoon position. So that's that. So you have that on deck for tomorrow. You got earnings season starting, especially with technology. The first two who are going to be reporting is IBM, who hasn't hit a quarter since Moses had short pants, and Netflix, right? And we're going to kind of start the session with that. So Netflix, if you've been following the action for Netflix, it's been a very weird stock. What I mean by that is if you just take a step back and you look at this whole channel and you turn around and go, wow, the stock really hasn't done anything. And technically, you're kind of right. You're kind of right. You've seen the bottom range here and the top of the range here. But this stock has been really weird. And what I mean by that is there's days that for random reasons, the stock is up $8. And today, for a random reason, the stock has got absolutely killed and more important is sitting at the bottom of the range. And if you love these bottom of the range plays, and I do, again, what we talked about, right? Look at the chart yesterday on Snow, right? We'll get the individual pivots in a second. Look at the chart on Snow on this beautiful little orange line, right? Now look at Netflix, right? Look at Netflix. Same little beautiful orange line. So my point is there's a lot of stocks that are really, really aggressive on the way down. But this stock has weird tendencies to go on the way up. Now, again, I don't know what to make of it. I've always believed from an opinion point of view, which opinions mean absolutely nothing. But I've always believed in the theory that, you know what? Netflix is such a unique company. I love it. It's one of my favorite companies. I use Netflix every day. No matter rewatching shows, watching shows, whatever the case may be. I love it a lot, right? But I've always maintained the fact that every single time there's any type of rumors that eventually somebody's going to swoop them up. Because, again, it's just in a lot of people's bread box. You've got Amazon with their prime. You've got Disney, right? You've got Disney. You've got, you know, you have MGM. You have CBS. You have Viacom. You have all these different sources that could gobble up the company. So every single time you see out of the money option flow, you're saying, oh, that's it. Eventually somebody knows something. The stock's up $11 for whatever reason, right? And then all of a sudden, nothing happens. And then two days later, the opposite happens in the bottom. And it'll be interesting to see here for tomorrow if they start really attacking this bottom of the range. Because if they do start attacking the bottom of the range here, there's going to be a little bit of a problem. Same name, like, for example, like Tesla, right? So here is Tesla. And like I said in the last night's video, I was watching you on both sides today. You know, we had this really tight channel. Well, yeah, I got to see it now because it broke. We had this really, really tight channel, right? Let me see, right? So you have this really, really tight channel to the upside, to the downside. You had 227 to the upside, 218 to the downside. And it never rallied with the rest of the market. At some point today, Semmy's got so beat up in the last couple of days, they kind of washed out and they went greens. You know, same thing happened kind of in these software cloud names that, although they didn't go green, they started kind of rallying off the bottom. But a name like Tesla, when a lot of things were going green, never did. And ultimately, towards the end of the day, had a nice little violent move coming out of this channel. And we started seeing weeklies coming in for the 212.50s, for the 210s. We saw some 200 puts coming in as well, a little bit further exploration. But the one thing we have to continue to emphasize this point, right? And this is kind of what we talked about. We talk about every single day, every single morning at Morning Strategy, look, there's a lot of stocks that look like they're breaking down, right? A ton of stocks. This stock for the average person will not give them a great value because the stock is now down 10 days in a row, right? 10 days in a row and, you know, it's a much easier, it was a much better trade up here than it is down here, right? You could see with your own eyes, but it still has a lot of weakness. There's still a lot of value in the market, right? And again, you got a Netflix that it's choking. It's about to get choked on the bottom of the range. You have a stock like A&ET. I'm not a big A&ET trader, but it is in the NASDAQ 100. And if you see it here, it stopped right at the bottom of the channel here back to back days. One more day of downward action. This thing you could see 104, 102 before anything happens. I kind of want to watch this thing. I don't know how it trades. I don't think I've ever traded it before, but I definitely, definitely want to watch it for tomorrow's session. I think we do at some point, right? At some point, like I've been saying every single day, I'm not saying to hear myself speak and say, well, I told you, we're eventually going to round. It just makes sense that eventually we have a dead cat bounce. It looked like it was going to happen today. And then bulls just kind of died out. Spies actually were up like $2 on the data. The cues went green. You had Apple going green, but the problem was not a lot of things went with it, right? Amazon went green for a little bit. And the video went green for a little bit. But names like Microsoft didn't, like Tesla really didn't. Meta got killed. Again, we'll get to the pivots in a second. And the hardest part right now is the continuation to find value, value, value. Again, guys, don't chase down. As much as these stocks continue to go lower, right? Look at the move from the 50-day moving average and Microsoft. And granted, yesterday there was a phenomenal pivot on Microsoft to the downside. But the further, keep this in mind, the further a stock goes away from its macro channel, the higher probability it's going to reverse. That's why you saw reverses today, pretty aggressive reverses today, and names like NVIDIA, names like Micron, right? You had these really nasty reversals, AMD, right? All these semis were getting killed. That was the first group to kind of reverse. They all faded down into the end of the day, but that's kind of the point. Try to find names that are tight, like in Netflix, like at ANAT. Let me give you guys a couple more names to kind of keep an eye out for tomorrow. Like, look at a Zillow, right? Look at a Zillow. Not exactly a name that I would turn around and go, yo, I have to trade Zillow, but I did see some weekly 27-puts come in, right? It's sitting right at the bottom of the channel here. There is a bunch of softness in real estate, home values around the country. It all depends where you live. Some parts of the country are a little softer than others, but again, here you can control your risk, right? Here's you can control your risk. You can see the bottom of your channel, and you know if it starts breaking down this bottom channel here, it could get hit, right? So keep an eye on that. A name right, Roblox, right? Same thing, sitting right on the bottom of the channel here. It's a nice, long distribution. Again, we're not sure. Think about it. The stocks that I'm talking about, they're going down like 10 days in a row. This is what happens. Eventually they turn around and go very, very aggressively. When you're looking at the bottom of the channel here, and it's touched once, twice, three times, right? The fourth time around, if it starts breaking down the whole number, you could get a $2, $3 move in the stock. So that's the names I want to concentrate if I'm trading to the short side. But again, the most important thing, guys, do not anticipate these trades, especially when you have a market that's so stretched out and has tendency for violent, really, really violent reversals. Let them play out, right? Let them put and establish their opening range lows. Once they establish their opening range lows and they can't rally, that's when you know, okay, it's all good. It took out the previous day's range. It put in a new opening range low. It rally, got stuff. Now it's about to take out its opening range low. At least if you're going to lose money, right? Lose money off that first floor jump, right? Not off the 10th. This is right. Look, Microsoft, this is the 10th floor. You're jumping off the 10th floor if you're shorting Microsoft. Again, it doesn't mean it can't go lower, right? Matter of fact, if it starts going sideways for two, three days, it's going to establish another bottom channel to take advantage of. But look where you're shorting it. This is off the 10th floor. You're going to crack your neck. You're going to crack your skull. You're going to rupture your spleen. At least on Zillow, right? At least on Zillow, you're jumping off the first floor. Hell, you can make an argument with a $28 stock. You're jumping off a curb, right? Maybe you'll get a paper cup and knee scrape. Like Netflix, for example, right? You know it's at the bottom of the channel, right? Look, it's at the bottom of the channel. You're not shorting it down here, down here. You're at the bottom of the channel. So what's the worst case that happens, right? Establishes an opening range low, confirms, and then only doesn't go down. Worst case, you lose $0.50 a dollar in the trade. Adios, meal, scary, right? That's the point. Knee scrapes, knee scrapes, knee scrapes. It's all about the knee scrapes, not the severed heads. So let's talk about today's pivots. Again, really aggressive days, really, really aggressive day. A lot of names we talked about last night's video. Again, here is Tesla, guys. Do not investors fall in love with stocks? I love Apple. I love Tesla. I love Amazon. I love ranges. I don't care which range is going to go. Is it going to go up? Is it going to go down? It means nothing to me. Again, everything loves. Everybody loves a good bull market, but we don't need it. And that's the point. Technical analysis has no buys. It has no friends. It has no opinion. It just has price action. That's the most important part. 227 on the upside, 218 to the downside. Here is Tesla, right into the close. You can see it literally right. Well, you can't see anything now because of these nice job there. E-Signal destroyed my whole point. But anyway, it took out 218. Traded down to this 215 level. If this starts confirming 15, it could get down to nine. But a nice move there on Tesla. Amazon was really good. Amazon would have been great. We talked about Amazon last night. Amazon would have been great if the semis didn't can reverse. But listen, nearly a $2 move on Amazon. One 12 massive support daily. If it builds below can flush. Again, we've been talking about Amazon's bottom range for several days. So it finally took out down the bottom range here. It went down a little less than $2, but really, really nice move on Amazon. If it starts taking down today's channel, you could see $9, $8 on Amazon next couple of days. We talked about shop. $26, if it builds below, can flush. Again, only a dollar move. But again, isn't a dollar move on a $26 stock pretty good, right? So it took out this 26 level. Traded all the way down here. I said it was going to stop around the 2460s. It stopped around the 2490s. But again, nice move on Shopify. Snow, right? We talked about snow last night. $157 for builds below can flush. This was a little too thin for me. And it was on SSR. So I didn't trade any snow. But for all you guys who did, congratulations. So it took out the $57. It went all the way down to $145. This thing was down like 12 at one point. Really, really big move. Congrats to all you guys who did take it. SSR and Thin Stock, for me, is a disaster. Again, another Thin Stock. It only went down a little less than a dollar on Zoom. We talked about shop. Meta got smashed. When we talked about Meta last night, $131.28 for builds below can flush. Here was Meta, right? Here was Meta. It took out the $31.28. Went all the way down to $127. Big move on Meta. Roblox $33.50. It stopped right, basically, in this channel. This was definitely the move of the day, right? This was definitely, definitely the move of the day. And this is kind of what we led with Netflix. $224 held three times daily for builds below can flush. Yeah, that was an understatement. So here's Netflix, right? So here's the, you see the, you see guys, you see these two days in a row, right? Stopped $224.38 on October 7th. On October 8th, stopped $224.23. And today in the morning, it stopped again at $224. So it held three times. Once it broke that $224, it just absolutely moved, just huge move all the way down to the $213 level. I'm telling you, this channel loses in the next couple of days, but especially before earnings, man, this thing could get a header really, really quick as well. And I think that's a, yeah, a couple of moves to the upside when the market turned. On the video is $117 needs to build. Again, here's the whole point of not carrying which way the market goes. $17 went to like $18.50. Tesla never got to $227 and Amazon, right? Nice little move on Amazon, $14 needs to build. Amazon went to $15.50. So that's it, right? So that's it. CPI tomorrow, we have another, I think we have CPI on the Thursday or Friday. Who the hell could keep up with these things? So when governors fed speaking nonstop, I think they're speaking now, dude, shut up, right? I think they're speaking now. They just, apparently they just, again, they get paid by the word. Anyway, guys, have a great night, everybody. Go enjoy your life, go enjoy the day. Again, if you're a brand new trader, fall in love with technical analysis and I promise it's gonna fall in love with you back. Guys, have a great night, God bless. Go, yanks, I'll see you guys tomorrow.