 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien Good Friday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien company alive from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time on Friday morning We got 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and markets continually uptrend We had yesterday S&Ps right now up by almost a full percent trading at 37 16 your 215 points about where you were yesterday Just almost at this time if you recall folks CPI print for the month of September and I'm sure you do quite a reversal day yesterday one for the history books I was seeing some Statistics last night in terms of overall turnaround in terms of how far you were negative to how far you were positive a Top 10 day almost across the board in history folks on the types of turnarounds Top 10 day don't see those days off, and I'll see if I can find those statistics later I think it was only four or five times it had been that big or something like that for the S&P NASDAQ 100 And guess what today we continue the trend We got retail sales this morning, and we got bank earnings this morning We'll get into those in a moment NASDAQ 100 you're up by 1.1 percent How about the NASDAQ 100 man? You are approaching now 700 points above where you were at the lowest yesterday and you're 300 points above where you were coming into the CPI print Let alone just getting back what you lost the Dow 30,000 408 almost 2,000 points folks above where you were trading at the lows the Russell right now up by 1.3 percent the Russell talking about a hundred and 15 points to the upside from 1640 to 1750 of that are thereabouts Bitcoin Climbing towards 20,000 almost made it overnight not quite there coming up to that level yet again We got crude down $1.46 crude was a higher overnight as well We pull back a bit for crude you jump over to the gold contract gold now Take a look at these markets from what we just did in the S&P's right S&P's you take back everything you did in terms of the markets, okay? Many of the different markets did that not the case with the currencies and gold gold was at 1680 85 coming into that number made it all the way down to 1648 Boy, you're right near those numbers at 6 a.m. This morning so gold not really clawing back what you had going on there We jump to notes and bonds they do get it all back man Quite the reversal right now you got the 10 year right basically right back to where you were prior to that number You're spiked down almost two full points and you get it all back in the span of basically 24 hours We have higher price and lower yield right back to where we were yesterday, but boy when you talk about it Folks you're still talking about a yield right now the ten year. We're talking about 3.87 percent Let's just jump down the line for the yield curve real quickly Because they were talking about in the den they're talking about yield inversion man And yeah, you should pay attention folks the 210 we get the two-year right now at 4.4 percent And we have the ten year at 3.87 percent. That's talking about 52 basis points folks of inversion that is quite an inversion and That is pointing towards lower growth Which is why you have a decreased yield on a 10 to 10 year term basis versus the yield you'll get from a two-year basis Keep your eye on that one because it is a spread that has been widening and it is a big one All right, let's jump around to some of the banks will kick off their earnings We jump over JP Morgan some strong earnings out of JP Morgan you spike to 113 you're back a bit You're still up by about a dollar to 110 boy these banks charged higher yesterday ahead of their numbers JP Morgan Was that almost a hundred yesterday now? We opened it about 102 But you see what I mean from this chart climbing towards a hundred and just like that We're at 110 this morning for JP Morgan. We got Wells Fargo out with their numbers They are higher this morning as well by about a buck 30 City with their numbers they're higher a little bit as well And I think we got Morgan Stanley do I think we do Morgan Stanley actually the lone one That's a little bit lower by about a dollar this morning and let's jump over to some of the headlines We're gonna kick it off with retail sales though We had a lot of data man retail sales stagnate as inflation rates hit consumers seven of the 13 retail categories decreased in September control group sales increased a larger than forecast point four percent That's the control group though But the value of overall retail sales little changed in the month of September excluding gas retail sales were a point 1% the figures are not Adjusted for inflation and boy when you look at the numbers right change in retail sales Nominal okay, that is the bars on this chart Okay, but the line the black line in here is changing sales minus gasoline and autos Tough to deny that that is a declining number. We were looking for a point two percent estimate it comes in Whether you're talking about The overall or you're talking about excluding gasoline and autos still just slightly zero to slightly flat Seven of the 13 declined including a drop in receipts at auto dealers furniture sporting goods stores Electronics merchants electronics merchants. I'll say that again Electronics is supposed to be some great deals on computers this holiday season one of the areas that supposed to be Discounted very heavily is computers out there the value of sales at gas stations fell 1.4 percent reflecting cheaper fuel prices But they're now climbing now. This is gonna be the interesting thing man. I've been talking about it Okay, so that's retail sales for the month of September. It is already October 14th folks Already October 14th. We still have a month to go. Excuse me. We still have over half the month to go That's what I was gonna say But you take a look at crude on a daily basis, okay We came into now remember this folks. Okay, cuz we came into October at about $80 man Came into October at about $80 So you have seen rising prices so far for most of the month of October as we are up to 87 74 That's after pulling back from 93 64. You kiff kicked off the month chopping around at about $80. I Mean what would have happened to prices folks if crude was not going down for a period of three plus months from a hundred and twenty five Dollars and that's not even cherry-picking the high. Okay, that's not saying from 130 That's just saying we have benefited greatly in terms of we should now yesterday Okay, some of the CPI print in there, you know, you have gas prices down But energy is still very high in terms of energy prices But prices overall have been helped tremendously over a period of almost four months now What happens if that trend reverses? There's so many variables in this market folks that could play out quite a relief rally yesterday We're back above 3700 banks got good numbers, man We're gonna get into them after the break JP Morgan beats across the board big numbers I've seen the headlines earlier this morning waking up And after that, of course But going through some of those numbers when they came out just headline numbers JP Morgan big numbers Let's jump over. Why not send some T's them Record net interest income shouldn't be surprising folks. They opt the guidance For the full year as profit tops estimates consumers businesses remain healthy now That's the same man that says he expects possibly a recession coming up. Maybe the second quarter of next year 17.6 billion in Third-quarter net interest income 17.6 billion dollars in 90 days in net interest income The money it earns on loans minus what it pays out for deposits That is some interest man expenses also came in lower than analysts were expecting driving a profit beat Yeah, they beat man And he's talking about that. Yeah, the central banks benchmark rate We'll probably have to rise higher than the four to four and a half level many economists are predicting That wouldn't be surprised there folks So they were marred by almost a billion dollar net investment securities loss I talk about Wells Fargo in here. Yeah, check it out This year's net interest income excluding its market's business $61.5 billion We're gonna talk a little bit more about the bank earnings folks. We got Wells Fargo Morgan Stanley city group. We'll talk about them We'll be right back This to gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd gold project This to gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in 7 million ounce gold reserve This to gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIVC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive Transaction this to gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC This to gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for Everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com when you subscribe You'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is Committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge Every day it is mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at tfnn all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors Tfnn has launched the Tigers Den hosted at Discord Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours The Tigers Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this Educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We get the S&P right now up by 32 points trading at 37 14 NASDAQ up 105 points coming into a Friday after the Volatility we had yesterday man. Who knows where we're gonna go in the open right now We jumped to some of those banks as I mentioned JP Morgan strong numbers man. There was their charge higher yesterday That's not even including the price action so far this morning. You're up by about a dollar You were as high as 112 for JP Morgan back to the 15 minute chart There's your volatility early this morning on their numbers and jumping over to some of their numbers Real quick the headline numbers in terms of what they made earnings 312 a share versus 288 How about revenue taking in more than a billion dollars more than almost 1.3 billion than what they were looking for 33.49 billion Exceeding the 32.1 billion estimate getting into things a little bit further deeper into their numbers back to the Bloomberg article I had pulled up there They had suspended their buybacks in July in order to quickly meet higher capital requirements while maintaining flexibility to navigate a changing economic environment Yeah, and the firm had averaged about 2.2 billion of buybacks a quarter and the firm now hopes to resume buybacks Early next year now. It's interesting that number one They see the Fed going higher than the market maybe thinks at least the possibility that they do that would increase And that interest income that they're able to achieve on some of those deposits, okay But they also expect that they're gonna have an economic slowdown I say they is and their CEO is looking for a potential recession in the second quarter of next year That's potentially when they're gonna start with those buybacks again Interesting that's a long way away folks. We'll see how things play out until then Non-interest expenses 19.2 billion dollars slightly lower than when the market was looking for you like to see lower expenses And what the market's looking for right now in so many firms? Yeah, as they say firm spending has been a key focus for investors this year after executives predicted an 8.6% increase from 2021 Costs are up 7% for the first nine months this year. So they're keeping it in line Investment banking fees. Yeah, not happening this year folks fell 47% less than analysts expected Revenue from the business could fall by half as clients spook by economic certainty Uncertainty stay on the sidelines a bunch of numbers They settled aside 1.5 billion for potentially sour loans more than the 1.2 The market was looking for if you're a long-term investor, man You like the idea these banks being well capitalized right now, okay? Because we don't know what's coming down the line next year, man If anything you would want to be well capitalized right now. They should run airlines like this folks Didn't even plan on going there, right? But they should run airlines like this You should have a check on airlines like this because guess what? We can't function without banks and we can't function without airlines. So why not, you know? Why not? They have their earnings this week. They are in big trouble But they should be showing up their balance sheet at a time when you need to be able to meander times of whether it's economic hardship Or whether it's just like we saw in the pandemic or God forbid you ever see some type of war or whatever is going on with Russia right now We need to bail out the airlines if they get into trouble because we need functioning airlines for an Our economy to function just like we need banks banks obviously a little bit more integral than airlines But boy across the board It's kind of the same when you think about the fact that we have to bail them out no matter what and we continue to So maybe airlines should have to do that, right? Maybe airlines should have to put some money on their balance sheet instead of handing it back to the shareholders And then coming to the taxpayers every time they get in trouble a little bit of a divergence there Okay, let's jump around to what else we have going on We'll jump to Morgan Stanley next pretty cool We get all the banks on Friday to kick off the earnings season Third-quarter profit miss as investment banking revenue collapses 55% got to be a tough time to be an investment banker right now as the market collapses And that business just dries up They miss by 300 million on revenue now This is in light of you just saw the JP Morgan numbers man strong numbers in a big way now They're different businesses. Okay a buck 47 versus a buck 49 and they miss on revenue by 300 million You see Morgan Stanley. They are a bit lower this morning We'll jump back to their chart in the morning investment banking just plummeting more than 50% Investment management revenue drop 20% I mean it's below estimates across the board as well Yeah, and jumping them back to Morgan Stanley They are lower and I think they're the loan bank that's lower this morning So watch out for them and underperforming their peers to kick off the earnings season We jump to city city reports of 25% decline in third-quarter profits by tops revenue expectations 18.51 billion in revenue the market was looking for 18.25 net income falling Yeah, they don't have the comp in here. Let's say I was reading this before a buck 63 It's unclear if that is comparable to estimates not sure who's doing that or what's going on there But nonetheless the market likes the numbers because city they were a little bit higher Yeah, and they're holding on to those gains are up by above 50 cents as we come into the opening bell And we jump to Wells Fargo. We'll finish it up Wells Fargo really trading higher man You're up by a buck 70 on Wells Fargo We take a look at this thing on a three-year weekly back to the 50% of the entire move lower from 20 to 80 63 You back off almost to the 618 even you make it to a low of 36 54 the 618 would have been 35 81 this morning You're gonna open at 43 73 Okay, let's jump around to some of the other stories we have going on beyond meat They are in the press with a couple of stories this morning So beyond meat they're down about 10 pennies right now. Nothing too fantastic when you look at their chart There's some volatility for you man now Maybe that was the newest coming out that I'm talking so they are cutting folks and They're cutting 19% of their workforce as sales and The stock struggles as they put it 19% or about 200 employees the company said Friday So what's that mean? They got about a thousand employees. Yeah, and they're cutting 200 of them It's a big number man. You got 800 employees left at this company that are there abouts Yeah, and that was so that that story is out there. Let's see what time print they put on this thing 851 it could have been out there in any time. I'm not sure what time that story hits And then this story is out there for their I think COO Operating chief I believe so COO and he had quite a day for himself at a college football game I believe with assault or something to that degree. I remember bringing this up saying man How do you do that when you're in that type of a position as a C-suite executive of a publicly trading company? So he's gone nonetheless. They were getting rid of employees. Anyway, he's out the door They'll probably get a new COO, but be careful of this equity folks Because man is so remarkable folks when you you know, you got to listen to your intuition sometimes because You can be right and it's a matter of whether you can wait long enough with the market Kind of reverberate sometimes to find that price and sometimes you can't do it man The market can work forever, you know the meme stocks, right? They're they're showing us that no matter what happens, man Markets tend to fight can defy logic for longer than you can withhold that position sometimes, but I say that okay Boy, this was an easy one folks when it was trading at 240 back here in July of 2019 man I say easy nothing's ever easy folks, but I remember talking about it being on the air with my dad This company now has a market cap of about a billion dollars just under that price point So what were we pushing there? We were pushing what 15 times that number almost so you're pushing 15 billion dollars 16 billion dollars And I remember talking about man. I remember saying Tyson. Okay Tyson back then and when when did we just put that up there? As we come into this that is July of 2019. Okay, and I remember Tyson Where's July 2019? Okay, so Tyson was at about 82 bucks a little bit higher than it's at right now Tyson right now Is valued at 23 billion dollars? So maybe maybe Tyson was at 27 28 billion dollars We're gonna finish this conversation folks because it's important Okay, because Tyson was valued at like 27 billion and beyond meat was valued at like 16 billion There's no way that that one made sense in the long term. We'll be right back folks Blooming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded. There's no better place to protect your hard-earned money than ain't gold This the golds flagship asset is the monk called gold project in the northern territory of Australia This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in the tail one mining district This is a large-scale low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction This the gold just completed the Mount Todd feasibility study which resulted in a seven million ounce gold reserve in a 16 year Mine life all of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits This distinguishes Mount Todd as an attractive dearest pot ready development stage gold project This the gold trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol VGZ TfNN is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in Collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has Programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any traders methodology using this first-of-its-kind program The art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including Gottlieb ABC's Butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks Just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only seventy nine dollars a month We are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day Unconditional money-back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today By visiting tfnn.com Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at Tfnn you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either Tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and Tfnn's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the World from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on Tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be Tfnn educating investors This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We get the S&P's right now negative by 22 points NASDAQ 100 negative by excuse me negative Listen to me. I'm too used to it positive by 25 on the S&P above 3700 we've given back some of those gains. That's a 15 minute chart Highs made just as I came on to the program at about nine o'clock at a price point of about 37 33 and watch out We just gave up 30 points just like that folks in the S&P since I've been on the program about 30 minutes ago We open you trade a hair lower, but all the market's still in the green crude down a buck 61 right now You get the gold contract continuing to struggle 1660. Let's jump around to some of those currencies as we kick things off You talk about some volatility man the dollar up to almost 114 back to 112 20 up a full dollar again Up a full point dollar 113 20 back. I mean just huge volatility You put this thing on a daily basis right just chopping around in the middle of the trend line right now on the dollar index We jump over to the euro You're a US dollar again Just chopping around somewhere near the middle of that channel line near the top portion of it and look How this goes folks as time goes this channel on getting further and further away from parody We're at 97 5 right now the pound US dollar. They got their own issue Going on over there 112 33 and the dollar again. They got their own issue in Japan going on as well man You talk about a non-stop train coming at you folks. We might see 148 in no time on that Yeah, that's putting a hurting on the gold contract in a big way You could say the gold could be lower In a and in dramatic fashion it could be lower with the way that this yen has traded folks Poof a three-year weekly. We kick off 2021 at almost parody. All right, it's not parody It's like a hundred for one. It's not one-to-one in Japan in terms of a yen But a hundred to one nonetheless and just like that man You're at 150 just like that you go from 115 up to 150 Just this calendar year and it is not stopping right now in the dollar yen. All right jumping real back Real quick right back to beyond me because think about these types of scenarios folks. All right You got to go back a little bit further. There's beyond me and I remember having these conversations Okay, because I believe Tyson was a partner potentially beyond me and I forget what happened Maybe they pulled out. Maybe they sold their investment prior to them going public Okay, but you have beyond me right now at a price point of 15 bucks at about a billion dollar Market cap so at 240 you're talking about what 15 16 billion dollars called 16 billion dollar market cap This thing was pushing at the highs of 239 71 when things just got out of control folks Okay Like fake meat was gonna take over the world or something at least when when you have a company like zoom that does multiples or Something like that it makes some kind of sense because the world is transition transitioning to that type of a technology spectrum But I don't think it's transitioning to fake meat just yet man And you were pushing 16 or 17 billion and meanwhile you had Tyson Right just the distribution network alone that a company like Tyson had let alone the meat that they come that they distribute and let alone that They were gonna be in the same exact sector folks They are going to have a fake meat. Okay, and you had Tyson at that time now We're just where we again shame on me. Where were we July of 2019? I believe is that the price point July of 2019 Okay, and to go to July of 2019 for Tyson Okay, you were pushing $80 and you're at 66 so slightly ahead of where it's at right now. So you're pushing about 26 billion So let's say Tyson had 26 billion and beyond meat had 16 or 17 billion. Which one would you want to buy folks? I'm not even gonna get into the numbers. Okay, they're general sales the profits of those two companies when they were pushing that number Video game style numbers as our man Kevin Hanks says sometimes pay attention to that and guess what Tyson Yeah, they're down they're down from where you were right then all right You're down 15 bucks. You're down about 20% from where you were in 2019. That wasn't a recommendation to go buy Tyson Okay, maybe that was just a recommendation though to look at the valuation of a company like Beyond Meat when even a company like Tyson was barely valued higher than a company like Beyond Meat meanwhile, they're gonna be a competitor. There's no You know holy grail of fake meat folks. There's gonna be number of different kinds of it that are gonna be out there And yeah, so point being you know, and then what do we see we see Beyond Meat collapse from $240 down to 15 bucks And at least you can make the case that Peloton's got a plan man, okay? Maybe Peloton does have a plan you're still lower today, but Peloton I saw some statistics saying the best seller out there for the Amazon early access sale was the Peloton bike I actually saw it when I pulled up Amazon I said man if I was in the market, maybe I'd buy that because it's a heck of a deal compared to where it was six months ago for Peloton, but at least they have a plan, okay? It seems like they're on their way to that plan They're just gonna be having somebody else make their bikes They're gonna be selling them through retailers like Amazon, etc And then they're hopefully gonna be signing people up for a recurring subscription But Beyond Meat, they're still cutting 200 employees folks They're cutting 20% of their workforce today trying to get things under control and they have competitors coming up the line Everywhere fake meats that there's gonna be so many companies trying to create the next great fake meat folks So be careful of that one and kind of a lesson comparing those two companies comparing the market caps of those two companies We saw it happen a lot over the last few years valuations getting out of control But that one I remember sticking out saying hey man, you know Tyson. We're all familiar with Tyson man Okay, they sell chicken they sell everything and they got the distribution network in place and meanwhile You got an upper-comer Beyond Meat that somehow is gonna overtake them and be a more valuable company wasn't gonna be the case folks In the market. Yeah. All right speaking of food. Let's jump to the big story out here in grocery, man So Kroger, they are gonna buy Albertsons for almost 25 billion dollars. Yeah combined they employ more than 700,000 people across 5,000 stores man remarkable here Kroger is the second largest grocer by market share just behind Walmart Albertsons is the fourth after Costco together. They would be a closer second to Walmart still not up there man Walmart They're grosser. They're they're really becoming a grosser, man And interesting in terms of where food is right now Yeah, a challenging time is how CNBC puts it in the grocery industry as they've raised to keep up as shoppers embrace new Ways of restocking the fridge. It's gonna be interesting to see in terms of how they can compete here the numbers for the two stores Kroger's got 2,800 Albertsons got 2,235 states to 34 And there's a number of banners that fall under each of them folks whether you're talking about Safeway Acme Fred Meyer Ralph some of those banners that they have in the namesake stores that they have and you got Kroger with The 33.3 billion Albertsons 15.2 and of course they scooped them up for almost 25 billion though out there Yeah, and it's interesting. They talk about HEB in Texas. I've heard of them never been to one there They're a privately held regional grocer and Publix in Florida folks Publix. We talked about I just got a man Jose from Lakeland giving us a call combined Kroger Kroger and Albertsons have more have almost 16% of the market Okay, look at Walmart, right? Look at this 21% So even this combination is gonna only bring them to 16 And you know what the kicker is of all of this which is why I bring it up Whole Foods 1.3% folks remember when remember when Amazon bought Whole Foods, which was five plus years ago now I just talked about on my program thinking the last couple months It had been five years since Amazon had purchased Whole Foods and talking about hey It takes longer than you think sometimes for things to play out Kroger on that news down about 3.8% down a buck 79 and let's see if we can find out we're gonna go a little bit back further Let's see. Maybe that was when Amazon stepped in when would that be? Yeah, that would probably be it man when Kroger spiked from 30 bucks down to about 20 in the middle of 2017 just more than five years ago and guess what since then man you go from 20 up to 70 You're at 43 bucks and Whole Foods just controls 1.3 percent of the market, but you know what that means folks Amazon's got bigger plans for that. You know they do And it just takes some time for those trends to really change in our lives Market rebounds a bit S&Ps back up 38 points. We're up 1% stay tuned folks. I'll be back in three minutes You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman Creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in Identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors The technology around us is changing every day with so much happening. It can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology That shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices Target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week You can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only 37 dollars and 50 cents Sign up for David's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL SPUU or SPXS Directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs Direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a funds investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds Prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit Direction investments comm a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is Subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC This program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ Well, apologies folks welcome back We got the S&P's right now posited by 24 points trading at 3704 you give back some of the games you had pre-market You accelerate into a price point just above 37 30. We're back as I said about 30 points just like that You were just as low as 36 96. Thanks. I imagine it's gonna be a volatile day folks With where we were yesterday and where we come into today for sure In terms of quite a turnaround yesterday We're sitting at 3700 right now. We were approaching a 3400 handle yesterday Things were looking a little bit dire after that CPI number. Okay jumping around to some of the other stories I have pulled up. Give me as I pull this up. I got too many good stories up here right now folks That's what's going on. All right, so we talked about the banks. Yeah, Wells Fargo So they have good numbers and the market really never cares about that one-off charge, right? As long as what it will not what have you done for me in the past? What are you doing for me in the future? Well as Fargo earnings marred by a two billion dollar regulatory charge But net interest income tops estimates as rate hikes help margins This might be a turnaround day turn around two days for these banks man because you're seeing it You're seeing JP Morgan talking about they're up 2.2 percent. You were as high as 115 24 Was that a real acceleration? It sure was that was a real acceleration on a minute basis up to 115 24 You give almost all that back though. This market's fading a bit right now S&P's under 3700 net right now But it could be a turnaround folks because All the risk right now in my opinion is that the Fed has to go higher, right? There's not a lot of risk for the Fed backing off from the estimates of where that they need to end up The conversation is now at least 75 points in November and that meeting is just more than two weeks out practically Then we go to December and then we go forward So we're guaranteed to get 75 and the market was only basing in almost another 75 So we know we're getting 75 we might get a full 100 basis points out of the blue depending on what kind of data We get up until November 2nd potentially. Okay when the meeting the next Fed meeting begins So if 75 is already baked in maybe even 100 could be out of the blue a surprise to the upside for a hike Then that means that we only have 50 basis to 75 basis points more to go And I think there's a ton more upside risk if the market persists I mean you hear in jp morgan talking about it. Maybe they get to six well with that in mind You just saw what happens to these banks folks the net interest income is bonkers right now on these banks Still while putting away some reserves to make sure we're okay You're getting quite a haircut from where we've been now for some context. You back things up on a monthly Okay jp morgan from the years of 1994 until the years of 2016 Traded with 20 20 and 60 bucks and we're still almost double the price point of that is in But all things considered folks you're at a price point in jp morgan the basic you were at in december of 2017 at 111 And I imagine uh, especially If the banks have their ducks in order it seems like they do on the most occasions Let's see on morgan stanley, which is the weakest this morning's trading Yeah, a little bit of a different chart from morgan stanley right check that one out in terms of where you are Morgan stanley all it did is get back up. I mean, look at that folks. Look at that chart morgan stanley 110 on the dot and where do we get to 109 73? God bless if someone was out there holding out for 110 from september of 2000 saying, you know what? I'm gonna get it man. I'm gonna get it and I got 27 cents more to break even And guess what not so fast man morgan stanley selling off today off 3.1% pay attention to that If I was gonna buy any of them this market's rolling over man If I was gonna buy any of them would not be buying morgan stanley right now Um For obvious reasons, you know, the trend seems like it's changed We have higher net interest income coming into the banks morgan stanley not going to benefit as greatly as some of the others And you're seeing a little bit of a reversal of the trend meanwhile You got wealth fargo up 3% today. You got city up 1% there's a different chart for you city Uh, let's see how bank of america is bank of america up Eight tenths percent they have their numbers. No, they do not have their numbers yet I believe for bank of america Uh, but morgan stanley down 3.5 percent today jp morgan up 2.6 Let's jump over to amazon amazon shares flat it claws back both basically the entire loss amazon was down more than 6 percent at one point yesterday pretty remarkable Now i'm going to jump around to A couple things first we had thursday night football again last night Now i'm jumping around come on. Let me find it quick enough. I saw one statistic here That Thursday night football catches a lot of heat folks for being the the worst game on the slate right the nfl chooses the games On a weekly basis and then what happens is they assign which game gets the thursday night game Which game gets the sunday night game which game gets the monday night game sunday night monday night some of the biggest viewed events on television sunday night football monday night football thursday night football Not the case folks at all. They usually put the weakest game out there and at one point last night I think they went into halftime Forget who it was even playing it was the commanders the washington commanders and somebody else And at halftime i think it was zero zero and there was one statistic out there that out of 45 drives on thursday night football There was the last 45 drives on thursday night football at one point last night There was one touchdown that goes back games and games. Okay, uh, but bezos paid a billion dollars for the rights to air Thursday night football on the nfl They started on week two which had candy city in mahomes. I believe playing the chargers That three hour period for the first game that they had now There's going to be nothing like that folks because those diehard nfl fans that need to watch thursday night football They all signed up on the first opportunity right because doesn't make sense You miss three four or five nights of football and then In terms of weeks and then you sign up those diehard fans are signing up right away They had more prime sign ups in that three hour period than ever before in the history of their company offering prime, okay I don't know what that number is It's definitely not enough money to pay for a billion dollars a year for the rights to it But boy when you think about the possibilities for a company like that folks Uh, especially a company like amazon a company like netflix where you literally just got to recoup the money that you pay for it In straight up subscription revenue now Interesting i bring that up because guess what that's going to change because netflix is now offering an ad supported service I think they announced it yesterday for about seven dollars a month You can get ad supported netflix on a cheaper version. Okay, so that does change things But amazon think about the data they have on consumers folks. I talked about it before I think I read an article they're charging about five hundred thousand dollars for a 30 second ad within the program So you got to sign up for prime for the privilege of getting served highly targeted ads Direct to you Within the amazon platform within the amazon app you can view it right within the amazon prime tv app Guess what they're going to know exactly what you bought They're going to go exactly when you bought it think about some of these big consumer companies that amazon So much business relies on right you can literally say now I don't know if they're this targeted But I bet they are man because they got a lot of brilliant people running amazon and if you're selling ads Can you imagine going to a company like proctor and gamble and saying hey I can serve up your ads to people that have bought your product But have not bought it in the last two weeks or something like that You know show me somebody who's bought my detergent In the last six months, but has not bought detergent at all in the last two months I mean there's the targeting possible to serve that up. I think it's a big winner and streaming has changed forever man Thursday night football now only available on amazon prime and there is nothing like live sports folks at all Amazon let's pull back pretty dramatically you talk about a pullback man You put this thing on a three-year weekly you chopped around, you know split adjusted from 150 to about 8 180 and boy, we've been struggling to hit about 110 this year, which ironically not ironically Uh, right back to the pre-covid highs levels 109 30 amazon just chopping around at pre-covid levels Stay tuned folks one more segment We got the nasdaq 100 now negative s and p's positive by seven to talk about earnings coming up next week. We'll be right back tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the tiger stand available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den You can look over the shoulders of tom o bryan and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs And join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Even at night and on the weekends the tigers den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible Get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basil chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns Finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by basil chapman and your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork To patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets That he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement You need to act on at any time First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors This segment is brought to you by think or swim For more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We get the s&p's right now positive by just three points nasdaq 100 rolls over completely in the red You see the give back and yeah, we're positive by four folks But as I said, these are just five minute bars We came into the program at about 37 30. So you give up a quick 45 s&p points. There's your nasdaq 100 You drop about 200 points easy to 11,050 We're right back to where we were almost before that cpi number across the board right now on the nasdaq 100 s&p's not quite the same right look where we are We're still solid 50 points above where we're at coming into that number the the dial hold on to gains 30,241 we jump over to the dollar index Quite a move across the board man. There's about 910 You just traded up almost a full point since I was on the air you're coming into the pre-market highs A 113 20 right now on the dollar you take a look at the 10-year just mammoth moves man Just mammoth moves Uh, keep those fingers quick this morning folks. The volatility is not going away anytime soon We just had the 10-year trade down 17 ticks since I've been on the air And 17 ticks man, you take a look at it right now We're talking about a 10-year yield as we are climbing right back to 3.94 I think we're at 3.87 something like that to kick off the program on the 10-year Higher yield coming at you folks you jump over to the two-year All right Now not as large of a move on the two-year right now to say the least but moves everywhere And let's look again as we wrap up this program folks We'll take a look at that yield curve one more time real quick when we kicked off the program What were we at about 52 basis points? Let's see we're at right now You get the two-year right now pushing 4.42. We'll call it Yeah, so tightening up a bit as you have The 10-year rising right so that's what we need folks we need the Either the the 10-year the longer term yields to rise or we need the shorter term yields to pull back Right because right now the market saying the feds going to hike So short-term rates are going higher and the reason why they're going to hike is because the economies In trouble so long-term rates go lower when you start seeing those longer term rates Maybe potentially rising and maybe you get a pullback as we start to peak on the Fed cycle You get the short-term rates pull back Okay, keep your eye out for that one But right now we got quite a spread in the two-year and the 10-year. Thanks so much for starting your trading day with me Folks stay tuned should be a wild one our man basil Chapman. He is up next with the tiger technicians hour Thanks so much folks. Have a great Friday